The Allstate Corporation · Allstate’s stock was above $100 four times in 2018 The overall market...

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The Allstate Corporation Barclays Global Financial Services Conference Tom Wilson, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer September 10, 2019 ®

Transcript of The Allstate Corporation · Allstate’s stock was above $100 four times in 2018 The overall market...

Page 1: The Allstate Corporation · Allstate’s stock was above $100 four times in 2018 The overall market has appreciated by 11.4% since December 31, 2017 Allstate has appreciated by only

The Allstate CorporationBarclays Global Financial Services ConferenceTom Wilson, Chair, President and Chief Executive OfficerSeptember 10, 2019

®

Page 2: The Allstate Corporation · Allstate’s stock was above $100 four times in 2018 The overall market has appreciated by 11.4% since December 31, 2017 Allstate has appreciated by only

Barclays Global Financial Services Conference: September 10, 2019 1

Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Information

This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information. Additional information on factors that

could cause results to differ materially from those projected in this presentation is available in the 2018 Form 10-K,

in our most recent earnings release, and at the end of these slides. These materials are available on our website,

www.allstateinvestors.com, under the “Financials” link.

This presentation also contains some non-GAAP measures that are denoted with an asterisk. You can find the

reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures within our most recent earnings release or investor

supplement. These materials are available on our website, www.allstateinvestors.com, under the “Financials” link.

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Barclays Global Financial Services Conference: September 10, 2019 2

Allstate’s Recent Appreciation Lags the Market

(1) Source: Bloomberg as of 9/6/2019

Allstate’s stock was above $100 four times in 2018 The overall market has appreciated by 11.4% since December 31, 2017

Allstate has appreciated by only 0.6% over the same time period Shares outstanding have declined by 7.0% from year end 2017 through June 30, 2019

Allstate Share Price vs. S&P 500 Price Appreciation(1)

2018 – 2019 Year-to-Date

ALL Share Price S&P 500 Appreciation

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

$95

$100

$105

$110

$115

$120

1/2/2018 3/2/2018 5/2/2018 7/2/2018 9/2/2018 11/2/2018 1/2/2019 3/2/2019 5/2/2019 7/2/2019 9/2/2019

ALL S&P 500

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Barclays Global Financial Services Conference: September 10, 2019 3

PGR

TRVCBHIG

R² = 0.8333

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% 20.0%

5-Year Historical ROE

Allstate’s Valuation is Attractive Relative to Peers

(1) Source: Company data, FactSet (9/6/2018). Peers include: PGR, TRV, CB, HIG.

Allstate trades at a 20% discount to a regression of return on equity and price to book value

Trading on the line would increase the share price by $28

Allstate Valuation vs. Peers(1)

Pric

e /

Book

Valu

e

ALL

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Shareholder Value

Customer Satisfaction Unit Growth Attractive Returns on Capital Sustainable Profitability Diversified Business Platform

Life Insurance Workplace Benefits (Allstate Benefits) Allstate Protection Plans (SquareTrade) Shared Economy

(Allstate Business Insurance) Allstate Identity Protection (InfoArmor)

Brands, Customers, Investment Expertise, Distribution, Claims,

Talent and Capital

Increase Personal Property-Liability Market Share

Expand Protection Businesses

Allstate’s Purpose is to Protect People from Life’s Uncertainties

Differentiated Products Sophisticated Pricing Claims Expertise Telematics Integrated Digital Enterprise

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($ in millions) Equity(2)Adjusted Net

Income*(3) ROE*(1)

Allstate Corporation 20,829 2,822 13.5%

Allstate Annuities 4,846 79 1.6%

Allstate Corp. x Annuities 15,983 2,743 17.2%

Attractive Corporate Adjusted Net Income Return on Equity

Strong return profile across core growth businesses while expanding product offerings

Adjusted Net Income Return Profile By SegmentAllstate Annuities Impact on Corporate ROE (1)

Allstate Corporation x Annuities

Allstate Protection Mid to High Teens

Allstate Life Low Teens

Allstate Benefits Mid to High Teens

Service Businesses Investing in Growth

(1) Adjusted net income return on common shareholder equity for trailing twelve months as of June 30, 2019.(2) Average adjusted common shareholders’ equity determined using a two-point average, with the beginning and ending adjusted common shareholders’ equity for the twelve-months ended June 30, 2019 as data points.(3) Adjusted net income reflects a trailing twelve month period as of June 30, 2019.

Allstate Annuities impact on ROE*(1) = 3.7 pts

Beginning in 2020, Allstate will establish long-term return on equity targets that will replace the annual Property-Liability underlying combined ratio outlook

1. Broader long-term measure2. Greater focus on non-Property-Liability businesses3. Factors in capital management actions4. Highly correlated to stock price5. Consistent with peers

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Increasing Personal Property-Liability Market Share

Reinventing the customer value proposition with innovative products, processes and technology Focused on 4 Elements of Value to leverage existing brand strengths Simplifying products and processes for ease of use

Improving the customer value proposition by lowering costs Current pricing sophistication, brand strength and go-to-market model have resulted in

modest unit growth Costs will be lowered by increasing commonality between brand operations and

building an Integrated Digital Enterprise Lower costs will support an improved relative price position while maintaining

attractive returns

The go-to-market business models of the three brands will be modified to execute strategy Products will still be distributed through local captive Allstate agencies, direct (online

and call centers) and independent agencies The product management, claims and operating processes for all distribution channels

will utilize consistent technology platforms An Integrated Digital Enterprise will lower costs by utilizing data, analytics, technology

and process redesign

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85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Allstate Brand Progressive GEICO

State Farm Industry Average

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Allstate Brand Progressive Travelers

State Farm Industry Average

Allstate’s Operational Strength Enables Business Model Transformation

Auto Insurance Combined Ratios (1) Homeowners Insurance Combined Ratios(1)

(1) Industry and competitor information: Statutory results per S&P Global Market Intelligence; Allstate information: GAAP results per Investor Supplement.

(% EP) (% EP)

Allstate brand auto and homeowners insurance generate attractive returns on capital while growing policies in force

Auto insurance underwriting margins are among the best in the industry

Lower combined ratio versus industry average generated $1.3 billion of additional underwriting income in 2018

Homeowners insurance generates substantial underwriting income over time

Lower combined ratio versus industry average generated $750 million of additional underwriting income in 2018

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Allstate Is a Customer-focused Data and Technology Company

QuickFoto Claim®

Building an Integrated Digital Enterprise (IDE) to deliver innovative products and services to exceed customer needs, while reducing cost structure

Telematics

Nine years of investment and learning Drivewise and DriveSense use advanced

pricing sophistication and improve the customer experience Arity is a separate telematics service provider More than 14 billion miles of data analyzed

each month

Virtual estimating platform Enables customers to submit photos of auto

damage Auto claims handled by digital operating

centers Majority of drivable claims are now handled

through QuickFoto

Allstate Drive-in QuickFoto Claim

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Personal Property-Liability33.3

Protection and Service Businesses96.5

Protection and Service Businesses Create Additional Shareholder Value

Diversifying into other protection products and services by leveraging the Allstate brand

(1) Personal Property-Liability policies and premium excludes commercial insurance. Protection and Service Businesses includes Commercial, Life, Benefits, Annuities and Service Businesses. Trailing-twelve month results as of June 30, 2019.(2) Includes Property-Liability earned premium and premium and contract charges for Life, Benefits and Annuities.(3) Excludes Corporate segment adjusted net loss. Personal Property-Liability adjusted net income includes commercial insurance based on data availability. Protection and Service Businesses includes Life, Benefits, Annuities and Service

Businesses. Trailing-twelve month results as of June 30, 2019.

Policies in Force(1): 129.8 Million

Adjusted Net Income(3): $3.2 Billion

Premium(1,2): $37.6 Billion

SquareTrade = 84.0M

(in millions)

Personal Property-Liability$33.2

Protection and Service Businesses

$4.4Allstate Life = $1.3B

(in billions)

Personal Property-Liability$2.7

Protection and Service Businesses

$0.5Allstate Life = $285M

(in billions)

Allstate Life Allstate Benefits

Allstate Protection Plans Allstate Identity Protection

Allstate Dealer Services Shared Economy

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3.8 4.1 3.91.9

0.4 0.5

-2.2

3.2

0.2 1.3

-0.9

1.0

-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0

2016 2017 2018 June 2019 YTD

Net Investment Income Val of Interest-Bearing Securities Val of Equity Investments

Proactive Investment Approach Balances Risk and Return

Portfolio Allocation GAAP Total Return

(%)

60% 62% 64%59%

11% 9% 6%8%

6% 5% 6%5%

9%6% 7%

8%

7%9% 7% 10%

7% 9% 10% 10%

2016 2017 2018 Q2 2019

$8.2B$6.0B $6.9B $8.0B

Proactive risk and return positioning resulted in a total return of 7.0% for the latest 12 months Positioned for moderate U.S. growth Continued increase in idiosyncratic return profile through performance-based investments

Economic approach to asset-liability management for Annuities despite negative impact on current return on equity

Total Return4.4 5.9 0.8 6.1

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13.1% 12.4%11.0%

14.6%16.2%

13.5%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 June2019

Adjusted Net Income*

(1) Trailing twelve months

Attractive Returns and Capital Strength

Net Income10.0% 11.0% 9.1% 17.4% 10.0% 11.2%

Attractive corporate adjusted net income return on equity Proactive capital management enhances shareholder value Significant cash returns to shareholders

Annual dividend yield is 1.9% Repurchased 14% of common shares over the last 3 years

Return on Common Shareholders’ Equity(1) Cash Returned to Common Shareholders($M)

2,306 2,804

1,341 1,423 2,198

498

477

483

486 525

614

324

$2,783

$3,287

$1,827 $1,948

$2,812

$822

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 June 2019YTD

Share Repurchases Dividends

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Barclays Global Financial Services Conference: September 10, 2019 12

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” that anticipate results based on our estimates, assumptions and plans that are subject touncertainty. These statements are made subject to the safe-harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and may be identified by their use of words like “plans,” “seeks,” “expects,” “will,”“should,” “anticipates,” “estimates,” “intends,” “believes,” “likely,” “targets” and other words with similar meanings. We believe these statements arebased on reasonable estimates, assumptions and plans. However, if the estimates, assumptions or plans underlying the forward-looking statementsprove inaccurate or if other risks or uncertainties arise, actual results could differ materially from those communicated in these forward-lookingstatements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking statements includerisks related to: (1) adverse changes in the nature and level of catastrophes and severe weather events; (2) our catastrophe management strategy onpremium growth; (3) unexpected increases in the frequency or severity of claims; (4) the cyclical nature of the property and casualty businesses; (5) theavailability of reinsurance at current levels and prices; (6) risk of our reinsurers; (7) changing climate and weather conditions; (8) changes inunderwriting and actual experience; (9) changes in reserve estimates; (10) changes in estimates of profitability on interest-sensitive life products; (11)conditions in the global economy and capital markets; (12) a downgrade in financial strength ratings; (13) the effect of adverse capital and credit marketconditions; (14) possible impairments in the value of goodwill; (15) the realization of deferred tax assets; (16) restrictions on our subsidiaries’ ability topay dividends; (17) restrictions under the terms of certain of our securities on our ability to pay dividends or repurchase our stock; (18) market risk anddeclines in credit quality relating to our investment portfolio; (19) our subjective determination of the amount of realized capital losses recorded forimpairments of our investments and the fair value of our fixed income and equity securities; (20) the influence of changes in market interest rates orperformance-based investment returns on our annuity business; (21) impacts of new or changing technologies on our business; (22) failure in cyber orother information security controls, as well as the occurrence of events unanticipated in our disaster recovery systems and business continuity planning;(23) misconduct or fraudulent acts by employees, agents and third parties; (24) the impact of a large scale pandemic, the threat or occurrence ofterrorism or military action; (25) loss of key vendor relationships or failure of a vendor to protect confidential, proprietary and personal information; (26)intellectual property infringement, misappropriation and third party claims; (27) regulatory changes, including limitations on rate increases andrequirements to underwrite business and participate in loss sharing arrangements; (28) regulatory reforms and restrictive regulations; (29) changes intax laws; (30) our ability to mitigate the capital impact associated with statutory reserving and capital requirements; (31) changes in accountingstandards; (32) losses from legal and regulatory actions; (33) our participation in indemnification programs, including state industry pools and facilities;(34) impacts from the Covered Agreement, including changes in state insurance laws; (35) competition in the insurance industry and impact of new orchanging technologies; (36) market convergence and regulatory changes on our risk segmentation and pricing; (37) acquisitions and divestitures ofbusinesses; and (38) reducing our concentration in spread-based business and exiting certain distribution channels. Additional information concerningthese and other factors may be found in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the “Risk Factors” section in our most recentannual report on Form 10-K. Forward-looking statements are as of the date on which they are made, and we assume no obligation to update or reviseany forward-looking statement.

Forward-Looking Statements