The Accuracy of Bombing Operations - LMH Archive

24
Document Title: Operational Research in Bomber Command Author(s): Basil Dickins Date(s): Not Dated. Document Type/Physical Description: Type-written manuscript, 622 pgs. Fonds/Collection Name: Ronnie Shephard Fonds Series: Operational Research and Strategic Bombing File/Box Number: Box 2 Original Archival Reference: N/A Item Description: This is a draft manuscript of a lengthy report compiled by the RAF Bomber Command Operational Research Section, probably some time in 1945. The report was authored by Dr. Basil Dickins, a rising star in the field of physics who served as Section head during the war. Using a thematic approach it explores in excellent detail the challenges inherent in strategic bombing, making it a valuable source for both historians of air power and those studying Europe in the Second World War. Keywords: Bomber Command; Operational Research; Operations; Technique; Bombing; Navigation *When citing material that has been digitized from other archives, the LMH Archive encourages users to cite the original reference information provided in the above field. The purpose of the Laurier Military History Archive is to acquire, preserve and make available documents relating to the Canadian and international experience of military conflict in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Website: http://www.lmharchive.ca/ E-mail: [email protected]

Transcript of The Accuracy of Bombing Operations - LMH Archive

Page 1: The Accuracy of Bombing Operations - LMH Archive

Document Title: Operational Research in Bomber Command

Author(s): Basil Dickins

Date(s): Not Dated.

Document Type/Physical Description: Type-written manuscript, 622 pgs.

Fonds/Collection Name: Ronnie Shephard Fonds

Series: Operational Research and Strategic Bombing

File/Box Number: Box 2

Original Archival Reference: N/A

Item Description: This is a draft manuscript of a lengthy report compiled by the RAF Bomber Command Operational Research Section, probably some time in 1945. The report was authored by Dr. Basil Dickins, a rising star in the field of physics who served as Section head during the war. Using a thematic approach it explores in excellent detail the challenges inherent in strategic bombing, making it a valuable source for both historians of air power and those studying Europe in the Second World War.

Keywords: Bomber Command; Operational Research; Operations; Technique; Bombing; Navigation

*When citing material that has been digitized from other archives, the LMH Archive encourages users to cite the original reference information provided in the above field.

The purpose of the Laurier Military History Archive is to acquire, preserve and make available documents relating to the Canadian and international experience of military conflict in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Website: http://www.lmharchive.ca/ E-mail: [email protected]

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RESgRTCTED

CITAPTTN 5

fltls .ssCuitACY 0F B0ffiII{G 0FnAJrTIOIf$i

{he aacura"cy f Bourbeir 0onmand, a,tte,oks ve.rled. greatfui fron rald to raid.1 but

apart fron thss rdile fluetuatiqn whi.oh cen loooely be oelLedl trandoml there ws.s &

$te&4y inprovenirent night through ths w6r, Xet even l,f the acculiaoy hEtl rema{ned.

fixod., the wetrght of boobe droppeil cn e$sry torgets would, have shfirn a mrked

tnorease ow{ng tq the L:ncreaaLng -oc&l,e of effort* In sther word,*1 one of the

paramoters o{'* bonbf*ll rltstrl.hutl.o&1 &ot ds.reuesed. tn Chapter 21 ls lNrr t]renunber of bonbo (or ai"rc;'af,t Ln a photo BLot) oontrlbuti.ng to the d,lrtrlbuti.on;and. in nonthlgr or yearly srlsuetion r![f stea*i.\r f.noreaeetl. It teena cl.esi.rab]ep

thereforsp that e,ny ecco'rrnt of, a.ccuraoy Ehcnrld bo eeen e6ainst e ba.ekgrouncL of,

the noale of eff,ort {,rilrslved,.

llhe CharurLne SoaLe of SffortFrobeblS' the etorplent nay to eonvoy the oha46es Ln ef,f,ort $ril"L be by nealaa

of tfsle*oharts o.nd I'lgures I to ,*r(1) clrawn fnon Slr &l,i.rrlrty }f*r,8oon nronthly

dat*r are euitebl.o f,or thLo Burpoee. $igure 'l r ghou'i.ng totaL gorties tleepatohed

montldly aguinet all tarsetCIl lo e'uffllai,errttry ar*esttng wtth l,ts 800-fo1el. lncnease

f,rom about '100 per ucouth in the oarly nsnthe sf t'lrE war to a peak of ?11000 permonth ln 191+5. Attentton ls drar,vn to the ralati.To ttesllne to a 3reorly d.ni-nun

each rle.nuarg (unrkod ,I).Slgwe ?r ohowing ths tonna6e sf, bonb* itropped'; rrould be stlLL !$rs arresttng

wero tt poeo1ble to uEe a vertl"oal sEaLe lmge enaagh to show tbs tg39 tonna6ee.

Aotrra)^lyp the i.nere&.se &orresponr*l-ng to that sf the preulous para6ra.1$ reas sone

80-foLd. The reaso$ for thi,B Ls the graitnnL oorrrsrsi,oa fron li8bt en l, neili.trn tsbeavy bombers, rhich Ls ref;leotedt i,n ftlgure tr (tons *roppocl, per aort!.ea d,oapatohed,)

J,taelf ehowin6 a l,$-foXd. l.norease fron about 0.1 to 1r..0 tons per sontiee* $nOther

f,estor oontributi.ng to S:Lgwe lr is ths d,eoroar{n6 abontive*rate; which e:rp}airra

why tbi.s flgur:e slec shoas a elS.ght vlnter d.oali,ne"

Slgnre ]r shontng ffrmbers of nlnsa 1a{& nonthl","rr *$ a ren$.nd.er t}et Donber

Cormr*ntl had. other tashs beet&es dropp5.n6 bonbs. In af,&ttion there war6 esrry

leafLet*raids.Inoneaeins Aecuraov

/i ctetaLled, {.nrrest!.a*itton lErto trendl,e Ln asouracy hae not been l-nc}udedl J.n thLsohapteri. $lguro 5r$l ahonr:ing tbe per*entaga sf airoreft cteepatolretl, whiqh bwrbeel.

wl,thln three nl"treu of the al,nlng potnte in 6ood and. uoderate weatherr en ntshtattaekg on @orsran anee ta,rget*, rCll E6rvs *a e nou6h tnrtteati.on of tb,CI trenit*Un"llke the Brotrioua slrffiEes thi.r o\rtrFe hes an upper f.islt at 100 por cent, lfpavofdt exoees!"ve fXuotuatlons rsnrdng etofagsg ov€r gLx nonthg haye been esed. It!,s not aonstd.erecl tihat t]du p*.ra,ueter l.s adoquate at va],uss ebow 75 pe:r oent wherea rnoLl,er rad,l"uc auolr *o trro nl,l,ss or omt ni,Le wocl.iL be bettsr but rsuld. al,ter the

(f) $aoins Puge

(a) Fao{.ns Fa6e

102

nnsERxCfsD,1 bagts

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S,ESTRTCTED l0$

bssl,s of oou;mri.son. If dete wore armLl$bls for the ea,rl"tnr troldLol tes 1t$tstdsnsit$.ee referred, to absve woulel, be l$ne rnE*t $etief,aotagy para$stsf fou thl,E

purpo8e.

X'he a,oour+oXi'qffirss shorrld, bE rfllewedl li'n eoa$tmotlon w{.th Figure I rhl"cht

however', {.$a}ud,eg a}"J. targotsp the thnes*wtl.B peroentage values rr,ouIdl. bs M$bff!,

for alL targoto. thus tlre tftrso ui.fs vsluss fo,r Sprll:ll 19&5 snA Aprtl l9lr5 ,caa bs

talsen ss ebout js per oent o,tl8, 90 pon oent respeotLte\r1 e th$oe foL8 Lnoreare.

The corlrespontll,ng ya.luos fsr sortLss &espatEhe0 urs about 6;OOO and. ?tr00g, e I.9f,oLd tnore&s61 $o that ths abso&utE urnbers Ef sorti.os bonb{Rg nrith,i,n three si.Leeghow an luerease of sbor.'.t teu f,oIdl,

the insreaso in *sEureoy achl,efeil thnoughout tlre war s6al.att erea targEts s.*

nl$ht vas euoh t'lrat whereo.s bef,o'rs 191$3 it was outtoaal5r ts quote ttrs re$rlt ef arai.cl, ln terus of tbe peirsonteger of a!.nsraft tromSlng srtt'htu ftw ffiner gf th6

ai-ntng pointl by the en& of tho wa* ths re$utrt w&s q,sos$ced by tbe peroentage

bomblng within ons ntl.s of ths aini,ng poi.nt, Sbe tryro,vouent neesursit lureLatian to a ons n[].e rad.f.uo rr*o eren lrrstro rXnotcculolr th&n quoteil abEw.Davli.Aht Onerations" 191&1 to t9&"?

-

tog.i,Svel, 4ttqgllcs oB $ht-ais

A dpnprohensi,ve review of thE soriee of Lgw*trevel attackr on uhtpo detlrl,€it

out by BlEnlrei.uffi sf, !lo. 2 Oroup fron Haroh to Sototer tghl *ss EefirLs0 eut *trl.publi.strerl as Bpnber oorw*sd. S.&,.$. Boport S". &.Or(t) (r"" psgo 89) tra thisanalyair an octisatE Ef f,ho bsuihing soe$ra.oy uea tl,o,ihrcsd, #0n the probeb$,ttf €rf

obtainiug a H,t; ithio probsbil,itf wer calsrflateil from tho retto of, trltr ot'etseilto bonbE dropXrerl. It see founet that the probablllty of hltttras inoreasCIdt E* fihc

sque.ra rEot of, tho tonnqe sf, the oh{,p ontl,l usLng t}ds rELationuhi,g it nos dei[r*eE{

tlrat the Brobabil.Lty of hitting for o stanitard. tonroge tr &r9gO nar 0.'lI. thiscorrospondod, ts an &y6r&6e rad.ial, etror sf 50 ya*d,e fgr the aycrego hengbt of 20S

feot'. [hiE wse epproxioa.toty i,dent&oa]. wlth the pru-$ar praot.oe boohiag rceiil,teotrtalnpdl by ELenhol"ae.

Xereets in Osauuled, terrttorvfhe f,ir"st onolynilo sf bo!& aosursrlr l,u attaahg o[ Lfiad. targrute oores'sit ttro

penlod. Deccnber^lgtti to Aprll lgSB and was publLshEil. ag Eoraber Sonnanrl. OrR.B.R.eport $o, l*l.\'i Sh{.g riEalt only sith:seitluo*levoll f.e. 61000 ts lSr000 footattasirs oeryiedl out' in fgl:lnstisas ot" el,$ al.ruaft wltb tbe Lead,e,r gf oa,oh 'rle ofairoraft si6httn6 {nd.epeud.antly aad the rlsta usetl sag iLor"i.vecl froE strl*s photq-graphsr ![he attaolcs s€rs tltvl"deit Luto hotght banils of 21000 f,eet rtd.ift *n{[ also&irtded accorillng to whethor qtroh or llttlg oppouittoa wat Enootmtere0, thcanaLgrtioatr prooedlure euployutl EsnaiEtsd cttrSly of obtainlng the avera6a srror ir

( 1) A.r[.B"Ar$tg/u6n.(e) A,fr,b,/T,rN+Vl'Jn,

NE$SRICfSD

/ tlr.s

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r1r t-i*il/

:r6stIrI,stHsLtmo Enfr rtrtffos qnll {#so rs$Sel$r uf t&B bom&u bl *arotr oilung* tt sfis

shsryfi thet rghffi t*.ttte opglsq&tf,offi wes pr.ffiS $b* t$u* md rwon 6r*wswsr.o u $qxrxf,wltE$ 6$ffi,1 eils. tho e:rrdtrrggs *s#ta}, egs6r f# s Wi&t sg

l,Sr0$CI Suw* ws,u of, thu efdsr of 3$O yur&o" tbB cg|rrewsseil€ B$ffi*tlne pr*pt$,c+ asror wss ASil;rwwlen &effi lardr Eppssfrt*m s,s,s smqs'up&essit

th* avo;.*ge r.ur$lal srrsr w*e sb.sry$ to txo spffi.ox$,Het*,$ dsabl€*r tksi.nese€Lss iu thw rsvrse 6rrsr ?reirid$ Snwates, thmr thpt in t&s ttm *t{ff*tlher* us"s alss e& irr,!.tu$t*,*I,-r tlt*,t ths ffifrf tsrffi$se4 mgru rspilfil5r !r*.ft{.ncureawin6 hqieh$ trs 'lihs su.ss sf *t*affiu qg's$est ffih slt@6{tie.

At a Letee clsts e comslets revtery of th,e dsglLffi qroratlwre foar

the fhr'Et ef,x mo${fue mf t9,4g was inrb1,lgrhs$, as &rqbsr 0ws#, O*R..$.

lissrrwt f*'*" Aiia"(t) In tmufe*,mrfu*t msrs :naf$lrad, wa4rde sf ttu*

liombtrrg arssuxle$Jr ef, rne"d.fifm }eve]. at&adcs was i,n*1rr*Etl,* !iltutbA$\A#1iltsfr&

Tlrdi os*$x,ra*ry *f k r.fs*W *Fos^ s"tgwt wu"s n@*uss$, fuao ttre ponitfqt oftll* snffi*sqli* of tke 6mm,rp ef, bm$rs.rlrogrssi;, as a resuLt sf thst sp6*e* orr

mlxl ths fi,\rsps,..:(r ws6!,s of thcgs centsnl&s $u$s sd&ffid,o*td tn ffig&rffi*oeto tlro s$srsife fix,Ksps oc' ell buubs p{nBofntsf vbtsh ws,s used ts thseorl*,es- $sts" At thig sta;le m, ijru*r,,tw mrbat{vtru$-mr $'f fim rlrug+se sfopimxttion ei*wl* lrc r*arte effi it wEls 9un"rnrt ths.t a.."ftL$st $; agpoe,i.ttoa tb*&:,r{}.{."r&lte ;'s*ti,e1 strxrss f;str sn w.srs#$ heil&* ,+f l}sffi$ f,set rys"o 3s0 ywrs,a,

l,iuo ur*t su,v{*s '$uqrors begrW eque#* It tygll bs $stee[ thst this rralra#

ts ocpraS. to tir+ -:roage*tim proait$o bosahln*l i'!,,.n*e ryroted tr6 Sn&rSomxmd, {J,fin$. fioport }Io* f+lrtc/bqrt ttat poi.rct w*s r,rs* msrs*l iu tbo re;nrt,In th*r $ffe'ssr$s of arry opBosttlcm whatssever tlw avqr*fip ce{ita,X ffi3{rffis

$a*s rtpqlblod,, *h* Li,ne and ra${fs +'nrponentg rwntfrlng $elilel* $g*tisgtbCImrry spT.!{0'4iti"i:n * fimt&or tne,reage $"n ths vanrls I'r:rsr toolr pl,ssg butt?ro:rNt w,?s r-rs u*mes*s$Hl,$,rrg Lncrs{rss ln the }$,rs &fr-,-ffif

0oryrnrtecrr sf ths rs,sl3ts irltb thoee quot,cr$ nn ths @srl,Lss ?epenbr

nlrcwes tbst thpro h*d, boo-n &r n;,j,resl,able LniirrilvfitMrlt tn t&e ssstNrsglr

s#ntns$ m*eh +p;ios{,t*&ft nxrd, thts wa$} ettr*,tf,rtsd to {ns,$ses€d e*aartenpe

e*rd. t'r *,mproveu{, teofinrl$ryaal [n :tayt$enr]ar the Lntrsd\istiEn sf a Smh*ryi"lw $*qrt 3nd$se,tw whiab enebLsd the mmsnt f,or the ttrwr sn to ibelre*rrbi&:,i rxrfi tu }:s $etf;ms,te$ w$.t,h uu& *gssstldr lrreefsl.w wri,$ gonsid#ilte*

t$ hs\rs hail en $.993*r.t$$t uffuet" Sht fr$rf.se waa dewel*pcdl by ms* S

sromp u$,t ufiusft,std, of s mrr{s}E os }.lne .d,r#r!.nrr the. p@si}g* $f; tbsatreraft ncloe S,n slel-i. s. wugr t*,rrrt by *tgbttng tllu tnrgst figoffi tho trnrsb

at tbs top of th* het4$t brnn of *he fionqw $btttug W,ffi fisre IK tkr*omnt fa"r' tr:sr c*,1r1* bs est*fr*ted. t&e tetcf,Ie sf thtCI dsrr*w fffo*&wa:re Eo-t mrt Sn nn npperxli:n ts sa* P kwpro Ssffitl.ss.l ftspffi {3) **n*ssctt W tbe $"tr*:}. to tbe fa$tffitwu,t Sepertwlt uf, ths n#ysl AtrcrsftI$ct*h3!,sb$efi[t tubo aq]#u]w],sdgs* tho u*efn],r,is.#s uf be$$r kopt tnforusd ofth,e ctrrstn'l X::rchl,nmu sf the &rs$*s $$fl tLto gmrsdlsnte sfrt{rts* f.or tbe!,ruolut{mr,.

/*rtuo@(r)ta)(l)

$fiiIupHs

h.H.e lrls

Page 5: The Accuracy of Bombing Operations - LMH Archive

:i:{iUJI

!{s$tr.3rxfi,.ts&,

Sttb*teffi Ss. E &wp sCI$*$M to *uxug ffit dry*frS&t s$ds**$.ffis dTr&r'isus tyBeu !m't*} S* ryes f,raud*iln** awry ,frte thn sq,{mo! qf MSsrwld f,n Neg I$[*]te fru&Ep ["sf,w ef b@try sFoxm'ary rrn,$ sssri,sd, s$thf tlcs *"3i"lir owtr"$ ft prs'Fsdwerswtitm Fitk pehlnw oomsgt$ rxi*& t'bp

ntght bombsr qffws{vs wh{sh wss tbe Sonmsdtn ffi64 i.rylgrytqet tegk ntthe,t tiw* l5&ffins was&r hsftstrffir. a nwbusr og qeq*eeil f6s$o su**,e d{#$sht*1u*ut{rms sswie& s,ur,t Sus$s$ t}re 3,s*tss penr* sf [9&A M, sm omd cf tihtacn

nn qttff& sE* t&s sr.ffiffiueff& wxhe s,t, I# ffisusd uuuqrssi[ $xt tg [wroaqf*re dffio* I &k+sp ss I? flu$she*v [ffi,S* msta]"ts weno dl$.Wps*ftti:S+ ,& {tstdl€il*tud3r of ths bMe$u esfsrsery w,ao sffinfts sstu'*ed wt #l un g$i&se$$ttr

trr sr**ve nt fhs ssils*s sf; thts endi-{t**rsa.s :}ub1.f,sbed, ds FoflfueH $M,s,tt*$* Xiepcrt *o. *n?6*(t) $hi,fi tmreEtssiattw rsreenef, thet th@s hsd,

*"., ';, bson s s*rs$g ten&omey t* owrehes* *ruffiffilf Ot}f "*rs&fr

uf tho kb' p*rttorn X.JrlnS ebout l$H) 5ronlo bcyod, tfi S'exu#natton of tbn rei.d,

xeporto for th$,,u oper*t*wn sM. rtfrw.tffis(o!il w&th trke s&uff of"S*u$$sest$rs

lfs* 5 &*t$r St sms pps*Shls to *ttlr$bnnte th.Ls remrtrt to s qf,wHsattsa *fsfru$6s" *wE *:f: th+*e ffsL"s tlw Ssdtl{ag lfrgh,tN soro h${m hsffiiffi b€ffi prtfr

#U 15 mtrwt,wu m,fter wxreetp e,m$ srsks fErm lnonmiltwriBg dil.o,5lgs s{rny Srt

t w rwts vrh$,ctu t$wthss awdu v"*mst Silsnt$,f,l,eoti"on wqp dlfftrstrlt*.&*otheu *ontrtbtr,t*ey slr$se s6s ths l.Ee6e u$ehdry $f e{,rffiaft Sonrrg {rlr$ry t}et*,rgat at s&## ast$ t&s f,ailurg sf t'hs fomol thffit& !s6k otr prastise Fad,

exporlomce fyr this tgp'e ef o er*tton* to dopl,qy [a Uatgbt a$* hadiag a€

ar$Aine,l"l+ pS.emod* .$.bttly an a re,snlt af ttuts th€ hsL ts of af;rgteftat b.vmhinflt wsffs in nnmst q$ses o*ue{dnruh$y bo!,Ew those lst{t dfrsnl *hs

s,vsr&gs d,t*cnepnmry butr$ 8rffi f,ss**. $:lmco met *f tbe grwe wqes ustn6

thg gtobsti.ned, srtsunEt$s fu*U*m*tlffi* s*Strt tbtr spartr:rE fro* tkebr{pfed, hotgs*, vouf* e*rftss * **ufukt of, sMtrt }5S yerd"q, tr*,s,t nlsnrts*l$,$ustmwt* sfi$r bev's hssrl re'tlB i"s sepsr cesss tnrt t&eqs ars }t"lml6r ts !re$n

led t* inee,out'ut* s*tti.$fir"up of th odgs"t* 'fnswg pntrnto ssx,$ taWl intqsi,oesws& tfl pl"frfiad,fifii firture aper*ttrrms pf, thie,tgp$r

et uher*t th.{s t$.:se s sr.rs.ll ms}o tn+oetilg,ntfrw i.rtto the speig'$ry

sf, the fi.rst stt,sohu b' tb@ Snrpr:f,cstt VIItrth $ir S'orw tr6s $e[s[s& snt &rfi.Ii.$* Uombsr Sonmnrrd to Xwtdo g$fErsat{st fffi th$ $$} $tsdf st $pwhe

fformqnll aa ths patelrt*at{t{,sn of ths lf$sd$n troUs*mt wftk ghLcb t&s

*nwrtss$ a*,rsv*Sb $E*'e aqrs{ppsd sm* of ths tsstg*S sf, d,qf boffitug issorn{rarsttrtrsl# }*,ego ,f,srEo,ti,on$b The l*ot€ thst wne pnuparsrf meE net

f,szued as a repsrt sXnsg tt dcalt lrltb tho ogmr*t$.amo cf a fgrw qfui& s*gtrq'b psrt uf ttrro Soromu,n$.l tffit [t hae bsxllr Lns]udsd tn tho uer$sg af hr&ennle

l,tenorsnd.a *.e !Ie, ru.g1"tz) jvwtt+o

St{,f.tt trai.de os Se&Ben tsffis ds'r,n t* tbs sn$ qf; }9&5 or ess}g 191*l*

f,aL$ o*$,rven{.ently lnts t}lt@ porLd.wy as fotr1otr6a

t$] fift$:/ffidffi##err.

/{"}

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r J",i.I {.',t

i{ fi $, F *-fi_$_"g*lss

6a) HH,t."X& prLos to Ar$$stt( 19bX {wUen 0,Ii*$r Strffi $,ffii[$*E fdrst uutabli*fuad). SS morely src tbffis us v'sf,f& $n*l#sesf*,* th*.s norilnd.* hu* tfue bneso fiESa erg tod tw$ssget* in bethquunttt$r qil& ,We,[[-& to $Nstsfirb snel,f gr Etrs pectd, $s tq b€thst!&t uf tn trasms of frms *mll,,; wse f$r.e$r*Spfi &{I{FsSt W$SUSualts,rt sttwtw to *sffid# t&e mryt# s$ffifieryr* b*t #oet&r s**t"'terlrg s $ne.l! bry;ub*}md $v,$F & wtds es#n e$ s.d ssllfrl urnd &borqfs{sMs.eq'lryi * nsgltfl*ble dsv::$,tg of bs;'rbe s.t ttm uiffiW iotnt,

{b} It*t*,e frsm *rmn$ I9&L *s $nbt$ry fgLS* }hswon sf$,{lsiff$Mffr Mw prar,t[emb]u Swr*ery thte fwtrod,s wht#-tsi*te*e*t$ng as {n*&,s,irnfi ttre tntrsd#tsn Ef 6*e snf, ttstm) efth* F**$rfl*sler. $'o*co tqrt' dls*pp:oint{rfff; tn thet ftst&es. 6f tbdgoEpllts ttvs$ lrgr to swp*da$fon*. Stru wrty uu*&od, ncpmffffioilttrr;*.s&bls tn S'*ffnss, I ts $ tn tho $neroeefur$: to*mmme d:rs$gd, pqr*i,:rwai't d.oe;:atobod"l seS$LV C,us to s.aurEsslurr tc bealrgpx.

(e) $tatuts f'rotl Ela*rs,h l9{$} ts Is$blro$e-? Xzu* tbf,c perl,*"[ ssil&stlr.o vin$$.p,atlsrt of ths Fsthf,i,n$er $'ure*, rw orlut$pad wtth 0hEE*;n"{ Ht$ aue trsfi,rEl t'sfiWt Snd&.cwtsr efi,Eeffis} M $reollldffi Wb tftssprtng: r*rd. eerfiy sru!flsr eqryefi6fi Wegrsfi *fus &ffir u#nu6 ffioornrcql the lm*os SAS ssrspe*dilr ffis{nst tsrgp&s mttstds of &o sww*Ep!otartffi w{,th ths$ esrtes sf r6,SS.s nr: Hpffilnpg*

$otlr.Sn$ f$sth&s c*n usef'ul];r be eeful *n th':' wb$Est of tltra fifsb psr{,€fit

ltut the *tber tlro me*ilt oepg,eate t-ng*tffisitt"

irvpr{gt JFI*X t*. Febe'ualn lat+1

tbim per!.sd tqtt {iftrtwsiloi[ svsr 6nl targete $Jr s O*Sr$* repenr&n cel]q*,tA rs'{rtEw sf rt{,ght h*u*bfn6 s$Eraa*funs +vgs * sssi,sd[ 6f 19 wrths.* Asgt&#

S&l 6 $'otwnry 19I*5t 1 wrltte ln ![6]shs tgl$] k.rt uot €ffi€*el.l$rjpft1i,&M, .

trrre* ffil)rnbl*.&ft* em &*p*rrt H** H*6S {*} *** sqsqst f,$sers }ld $.$ide nrd mmj$rffi esr$i€e sr'3. uwnd es e $€rnffistw t,hs psrlsslt*{ts s*t'h$fr+ ftffi d,SegrB,f tl:w s$rs*,n{g trp+Trrtl exssliwrtd, ht rusthsr whnsh $,s s tffi effif,*ffi efr{,l.spe:rsi":ns 3rwr"*e'n'b*ge rttthln *hlsw m$,les of thg o€w}tn6 sf ifte sffiffitrs,tl,*$. ft resogsgesd ths6.e *ts trrct zub*$*rlod.ng tr{qfep Sewlt witbbelow"

fr:o-ses 3€r5.sd, to lfeeab. 141+?

In thtp psrisd.r rr{tb 6$ sor"&tse per ruf$, snd 6S pery sffit d tMnl.*ets.tdlrs* re$*rttnff ntta,cky $0 por emt sf *mspstshfid, ssrt*ss bfiffihd

i*ithsn *,hmo $ltrss sf tks s{&{ry ps$nt {ar**a6o& wee tl*? rqtdg}* tbrp*.* alsp s, frlssso$f,cn lry 6uepaph,ielr1 o,rea1 W $oa*hsr- tF{& ffgd.met*M f"*)r l*lr* b; mo$r.!.iekt t$ggt ains dertfu hu* ilt nhffife ho unts& t&stthlE *r,s tn tormE rlf S*fim,ffhi#,ffi esag,{oe tfid"sb husbsd si.tft&,tr t&rg* mtlas 6fthro ai,oin6i pe rut. {&ses vof,rtqs qf ths l$,lter pssffitgs fqr $sffien tffis&rs rel€ftra,nt'

S*aste! tnmse ."*o, ]]$&t*hr tgqrngt r+r..*.' lli$Sthsr futtme Seqffi*sl , ?$$

qf sttssktffi ssefSps $S*tutffiferss siloe of ajl;Wry p&flltn

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Page 7: The Accuracy of Bombing Operations - LMH Archive

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aesfRgss&iIl

ln $b-i,E pffiie&r ssth I&# mr*a,s ;36, xn$,s, * ffi dewet

re,pffitfi$ attaukl fif+ Ws. oertt ef &$spat$fud. ssirt&,Rs esffi1lHrl {rfthf;s e*sdnrlles ef the s$mf,sg prltltt or 5g per fent of *tt*sl$.q& strt*og tffimag,s*ovcu tS3 ss.tds)" &e &asp. f,er swt! tmmE ffsr

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$vs,rp "b!ro absye tarhle shnqe thet rs.t$.s Stryn3l s6ntM,r s$f$Gs t&* thrag*ni.Le r,raluos s.h$&rtr tlle €lt&:hnff ..rogJ|l$ ad" th@ ]S.S*$. # *+ wf$t$ dts-srs$an$o e$X

-c/'wh$.Lst fuE ap.p*s.ril--to bevo hsd. Eurirs kffidt*!il,e1 effwt ea

msst $ersmars'*u"S.d.se thos# os tbe Rnh ehevlluoa*. u**sswwrlt*

i;isllr,jffi$h#Hnffifi''4ffiffi PiW'*fr #,1,,S$ryffiW,.fi,qhft.,m.ryffi'f4fi $'tr*,F,fffiI

In t&ip l:or$ottr {sdf,tt[W th* hi"ghiltr Bssogseiftr] ffu]*sa rwtds]r, s*th;l$'t+ es'r4inu pen r'*,id, erutr. SA ilss wlrt o€ tho Snep,ntohecl, ffips'tee e*taok1

fl+ ;.+a *ecnt sf *seu:st*&ro$ e,lE't$ss bombes *rtthSil t'hsoe mfl.ag Ef the qiufiggl

p+tnt q:r *9 per qeltS sf *hs atteok{m6; sort$"sE {*vecogd sry 5s r*"tfrn}*

tbr; ilatr *'or fu,:ran tsmn*s a:ret

scostc} tssrret trf$ Ig$suhr town* 3*$ 59S

Sths*' trll€ffiS twner LS$ r-M

sttbotw$r ru-j.dE ffi ***si i*** ssd w ttr s.sffi fiffi ry---q%e.#1l$ itrqrsv&rmt im sffiHfirsry a,xgept $il *fuF &;{hrr

&e iltewp&aw be+swsri thp e$sffig potrrt earE mntro*frul t&illw fl#Lo

sleq$sntq5sol purb*.crrlar3*y unrlced 1p *hs s.ss& od thp msws eSSw& **;'Sp&e.

ul,earlgr rffieryl$nss teo petnt asno*#y rnsdu sbrtrsl the Wt'gdrt q,f tkPr.ctbfin&$Er Sssa€ was to tncawe,ffi t& 6 tiffi af s sefld 6t tbssxpwrso of lsrtrp&r*fiSry a, W-s'twt$o snex.oillr Rs*&s flw$ ils le$pr so'w$.iloly tlunstored" abcs*t t*rslr l€"Fn{sr @ unue8ws nn }oWW gm&red, sm

fsffi thr.b t*.ns srwl*rdlr

the taqge** Xnw wry glven Bise of tergw&; sp& a rywbw$.* s*ffi gwMp.

*rw the ta,vsrwt rll,I$ues thare g g ls*w Xls.dt to tb rmfisBn ffiEw t*leffi*rw the ta,v$rw$ r*d[&r*os tke*e # q ]o,sffi Xldt to tb rmfisBn ffiEw' t*ltnwhi.ele &athw sonasmtrntf*o Mgr*r+*$eryw b-ds on tbp tsffiffit' &ts-ffi

pronrlwr ?fr-rytr$ffill. 15fr {sc'w thsorstl,ss.l sspssts of s&{h$-dtsr.:se€&: ryffi w".'te+;t I Jsms&wtls uffiesis'{e *&s stteo"tiffi qf s*s*$*f

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Page 8: The Accuracy of Bombing Operations - LMH Archive

11 [StI]t. ISge,n

$he fidryent of tha Sathfiyder Fsreo Oofnot&sd wi.th tbe Ja$ntng qf

fie,B wbi,eh unade ?*he *svi,,oe sllaost ueelesa ovw Serm41. Moreo,:lfErr tbe

PatMi.n&€r Srorss ws,s la6[s{.r6 Lt* d{fftott$t $o& enfl1 {.& thtrs.'per*"o*r had

{nndl,s$*ate tssls for oerrlrtng lt out" $hc pert"od. at the ernl qf 1942

srd. the flrst two ul.onths Grf I94# mestrs a osrrsia,X pslnt ln tbe dotre!,opmeat

qf $ornbo* Somlnlld,* etsslg wfth a sstrrtl$ufry rfr,es irt the fetlo Ef, heevtss

to other€ und n n tatrls in#s€iags in *ho rus'tqp ef otEtgaft ope*etio*a3

{coe $|igrnnos I. a,nd e)lDtnsnu senre alffisat e:kflrtrterrestneXg the f,tretoper*tional u*ro of Obda snd, S2Sr *t*d. of target tnt*ieatcr fiiert{Ers }eadtttgto th,e []f6h:.y ss:tLdaatory $f-*$r$*marl{ing teshrllqtres* {he effEcf of,

the,@ th,pes d,evx.cee te pl,Ef,nly to be sodt *.n tiho art*d$en inerease tnapsureqr *uri"rr6 19&3r refl,spt€d, E$ f sore g(2)

I$sroh l9,itS t Febrsnev 39lej*

Whi.le trt is tg'qe that tho 1"9{+3 Sboe raids a$atnet the fuhr 6&d. ffi$ralds e,.qatnst noEe r].istsnt taf8lste $ese o'f ea al,tsgether ffiher' orderthan earlton attadrsr $nd., fos nX.moEt the fifet ttme il#3.ioted, veryseri.Er.rs de.maea om the enemryffi towltol it tE sl,ss tfirs that tbny stlll }.efts. 8rr6et deal to bo *eEfr"ed. in thet thoy were often b6dl5r oon*re*, toe

d.iopo*'sef,1 altd of p merlqe* eX,li.pt!,oel, shope. SLl thess fqlrXts ne*e ta anqrge er*ent e*rrrystsd, lates tn tr$Ifru but thay wsrs ver[r dbvisus to thseE

sttldytw theo i.lr l9lr5 end thry led. to ths dst&,i,lsd tims*emelfsie of raideSoscrtboff on p#qp47. ShiE tfpe *f anely-ei,E lnit$ated, the rase ofntsnded. fianrss*sn pallasr*ters fs'r raeammf,ns pheto pSotos fi, uss vihi,g& e,"eg

sontl.nuoct to tbe emd. of, tbs warr Bhe pararmtere rryl.ll. be uwf, ts thepnmsent oeq tron to ealculEtg iroiut'd.@nstti,sp &s rltgpa$reo gf Bofi{rqtrtrt

though *,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,h.s th.rge s€smsrxt{\Tss wil.i e,leo be quoted, for oonpa:r'etjiqs prrrFos&sr

5'trulXys f,estwg f,eut*ng es,swei&r @idh w,ere troe46ht to lteht ond

reamurutl b t*ffi analgsio will bs toushe& s*tbs Sstrthfi' Sboe eam;raLsr aee,inst tho Mr .tq+,

In *n anafuafl* af, otg$-t of {,hE Es$or ro ds in th$.E oawq$#l it veE

for,urd. that on tho ara:rege there rero @{ ryosftes per r*Id, Er{d Sd $6r @t,af tho d.espa$&s& rellostsd att.afikr 6S pe* gent of, ele*irotahe& Esrtlopbesbed. wtthln ttrree &:i3as of the ainnicsl ::oirrtp ffi ?S pen co,nt of theati:s.sking s*rt|ee, {ft,e latte* f$&irs ehou}d; be eomponod, with ttrs 3lr pe.r

oqnt rslatf$6 to tbe &uh:r towas abovo* Muroovnrx 50 per csnt sfattaol**n& sonstieE boaibeit wf,fhtrr the afirsd ter6et sffi&l fte *Ean qrs* oftho 50 per eent aorne {all1pes Er etrglo}wntneril, oa ths S.P.L uss f.&Ssquaro aitres end the maon offnet sf, tbe Id,F.X. {ogrutemetio omo*} wao

3"fO m$.lee*

fho ss.lel+Ilsted denos.ty nt the a"i,stJ?S pcil,nt (see below for detai.lsof tnftllrtdua] ratd,E) a;lrersg$d 6],t+ tou,* pes squ$rs ud"l.o erp in relattvoforul 3Tn8 tqne sqp sq$*:rs mil,o pe# &0s0 tsne dropgre4*

8H,'q, s,$$slrHsfsis/gg"

Page 9: The Accuracy of Bombing Operations - LMH Archive

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il.iriti$i:t{ lr;i ,elr # itxt fi}..,j ,$emp*,S*Iier'* g*,r$,t*g-;'*:li;rr,S W:}.&}i{"ll thr6@ ;d},eg Of

'1;lrr: n'fu;r*n:i .i{)*$tr or 55 ps}! *,{!flt sf *ho ott*sktnii eus$i6gr *e lst*"ar

ft..iffili:r rlhflLtrI;-'. hc c.g:::tBrx;:sd ';rlth t:re }"fi ,l&i:;' ssf)f; rctls,'$w'.I' te Pthqr lttlflxld"

t*yri"ns rl;jr jliti$ lol ant,r w:i^th 'blw f "; po;r *wtt fqrr 191s3 i$rehr rn$.rlen f* w$31

'ir{), $sffixo *.ttlir+rni*t ltilii ::r#.,;tg ffi--test,,i+*1;* }.ol* sssuvts.ts *hmn Sh*g x'*Srtrs

+r: *),*"1; {:i:::}ff*r}i::lr thtq;'i:lffrurt'i:*?gwr* tv<thtoS, tir.e fi;p*e g$r tlt* ti}rpg sft:1.-'..ilh cr$$r::"**r3l ',*h*::+;xs {,&*c :"*.$.,iro metg},;r 'l*s3t1** t}re tfum ff$*$tIFHr f,fem

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Page 12: The Accuracy of Bombing Operations - LMH Archive

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'fhis neaeured cLeterior'ntion in e iltfferont unl,t1 by tah:tqg thed.J.*tii.nce ffim saeh f,irre*ni.nute H"F.trn to tho bri.eforll ainirg Foi.nt ad*veire6{n61 f,or that peviod ovsr naitlsr {t waa e f,J.vo-ninuto tyo&matfcssrcrr ltr vaX,ue wag sii:i'{al at 0.8 ui,Lee for Obon suf, l"F Eil,es f,orII3$ raids 5.n the firat pen'i.od. d,etariocati.:u te 2.5 rilos i.rn the ei6St*lperl"od f;sr 0boe ;.r*ifr.s ,.rlf, 5,3 n!,I"ss j.n tho olovonlih poriocl f,or fi2$ rstdl,r,Srqq crf Fiva-ninuto 50 per cent ctrsle

Th.tsr whieh raeasuretl. dicperelon about thE $.nc.qinr*e !6.PrI. nl.'theutrsfe,.*snss to the systonetio Brr,'or, wu,s opti.rnal at b8 +q,.u,rg si}ea tn .tbg

secomd perioel. for'(lb.oo ,s.nd nt 6$ equare nitrss !.u ths t&isfl Berdort forll?-$ rnid.s. Ths wornt val.ues nEre t0* squsr* Ei.loo i,n {rhe gi-:$h, perdoril

for olroE sne 1b* squ&re &i1ee in tho eigbth pertoit for ffs ra;l.it8, ghus

rc;Lds uot onlg rl,r:rfted. auey f,rcn ths briefeil pin'tng Filtnt but sl.so beswe&o:'c scattene&.

I'he evl.cLonse ot'the lsst thrEe panegra.Bhs *rggoats that tt was t'6gea$lier 3rar"t of the raiii. whioh weo vatru*rble; tho lattor hs"lf (uors or],e*s, in l,*livid,usr, cason) wes nustr loc* eff,eotivg+ Tbs rsscdy war todi.,rpense altogo'bhur wi.th th,e Latter h*l"f by u*kigs reidl,c cheatsr, or toso$oentrats the whol.s ef,f,ort l.nto the first 2O utnutss or Ls.ssr It wag

a fortunats oj.rsr:unstanoe thst evidoseo qn the lsnss* and. aiwrgft lta,na6esid'e also favourod. sora rlo$sentra.tios r,n tlnen a4d tha ral"0s of {g4Lbeosrrre ffirch shortErr Csnoentnati.on i.!r ti.ae ryas f,ol,lowedt by eoucentretionin spacor ci.use on sdst r*r,Ld.s tlre flrro-nfuuts l{*PrI, aeesed to Gh{.f[.Saidsr ae whol'es, bceenne bsttor scntuedl and were nore near\r sirouler tns3r"rpe. Ihe uhoLs tren8 Ls f,srclbty tllustrstsdl by the rel.atlw ai-utneFpo3,nt J,enslt{es of $ablo tr{o. .t r

8y lferelr lgi,i*.t&e J"on6 mr{,es of Brecision attee&a on taotieeltargots hail fully stertod. rd.th tbo uarshau.l.rr6 yard, qanpoi,gn, [bi.ei.nauguratd an ai'togotberr ao$ Lev*I of ancuraoys nLth rct *tiyo eiulqg*poLnt (snsltl'es nvoragi;ng naar.try gr000 tonr per srluere uile per 1r0CI0 tonsd'roppo&' traveaiiSa;biong into tlrose by 0r&"$. ull,l bs dtosst"ibed, bel"ow"

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Page 13: The Accuracy of Bombing Operations - LMH Archive

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Page 14: The Accuracy of Bombing Operations - LMH Archive

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