The 3 Layers of Logic
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Transcript of The 3 Layers of Logic
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TOCICO 2013 Conference
Three Layers of Logicor
Never say “I Know” when it comes to Thinking
Presented By: Humberto R. Baptista
Date: June 5th, 2013
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Contents
• Models of reality
• Cause and effect: is it sufficient?
• What else is there to effective models?
• Examples
• Summing up
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MODELS OF REALITYWhy bother?
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TOCICO 2013 Conference
What models are good for?
A model (theory) of reality is useful
If and only if:
It helps influencing reality significantly
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TOCICO 2013 Conference
CAUSE AND EFFECTNecessary but not sufficient
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Cause and Effect
• Models based on cause and effect are naturally aligned with being useful:
• Also in communicating, examining, perfecting and extending the model.
• (remember also the assumptions behind the causality)
• but…
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WHAT ELSE IS THERE?Expanding our models
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Yes, but
• Usually there is a causality assumption, something that explain WHY if we have the cause then we have the effect.
• What is not covered usually by causality assumptions is:
• Magnitude and Time
• In other words:
If there is C then… Assumption
E exists Why it exists?
(This much of )E exists Why this much of it?
E exists (by then) Why it takes this time?
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In other words
If C then (this much of) E (by this time)
2. Magnitude assumption
1. Causality assumption
3. Temporal assumption
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SOME EXAMPLESThe mechanics
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Stockouts and Sales
MagnitudeTiming
Causality
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Stockouts and Sales (again)
• More succinctly:
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Interlude
• Why bother?
or:
• Should we do it everywhere?
Yes and no:
• Yes for the improvement of the models/skills
• No for focusing, i.e. do it between core cause/main injection and main/foremost desired effect. Or when studying how to accelerate/intensify something.
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Another example: sales twig
Why?Really?
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Why Lousy? Can’t we pick?Why Lousy? Can’t we pick?
What the distributor knows how to sell now?
What the distributor knows how to sell now?
In more detail:
Challenges:
Can’t we minimize the cost of trial? And time? What Parallels?
What substitutes he carries?
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Another example: a Retailer FRT (1/2)
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Another example: a Retailer FRT (2/2)
Which happens
first? Why?
How much? Why?
How much? Why?
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Also: “GC Auditing” process
• How to understand deeply a surprise/mystery*? (*=an effect not predicted by the current model, either existence or magnitude)
• In some cases there are magnitude assumptions not checked/challenged or timing assumptions not checked/challenged.
• By constructing the Transition Tree with these assumptions explicitly stated it is possible to understand the mystery and influence reality even more.
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SUMMING UPImpacts and consequences
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Layers of Logic
• Good causality models are great.
• Can be made even better understanding also magnitude and timing assumptions behind them:
− Reinforces jump from CRT -> FRT and determines the sequence (transition) that maximizes return in the shortest time possible.
− Allows better challenging of causality in order to plan better injections and their impact
− Allow a deeper understanding of transitions in mysteries
− …
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Thank You
• Comments, questions?
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About Humberto
• Husband and father changing the world one person at a time
• Scientist seeking to apply science to people’s endeavors
• Hunter of hidden assumptions
• Teacher, student and colleague of students
• Believer of values over [email protected]