Thayer Vietnam's New Government an Evaluation

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    Background Briefing:

    Vietnam: New Cabinet

    Forecast

    Carlyle A. Thayer

    July20,2011[clientnamedeleted]

    1.AstheNationalAssemblyisgoingtorubberstampthenewleadershipnextweek,whatwhatis

    yourassessmentofsuchappointments?

    ANSWER:At theeleventhparty congress sevenministers,whoweremembersof theCentral

    Committee, failed to gain re election to the Central Committee. Since Central Committee

    membershipisaprerequisiteforappointmentatministeriallevelthismeantthattheseministers

    wouldhavetostepdown.

    ThenewNationalAssemblywillhavetheopportunitytovetandapproveallCabinetnominations

    includingtheeightministrieswholosttheirministers:ForeignAffairs,HomeAffairs,Planningand

    Investment, Construction, Information and Communications, Science and Technology,Natural

    ResourcesandEnvironmentandHealth.Sixofthenewministersareformerdeputyministersin

    thesamedepartment.Theirelectionwillrepresentcontinuityinleaderships.

    Twoministries, InformationandCommunicationandNaturalResourcesandEnvironment,will

    haveoutsidersappointedasministers.Inbothcasesthenewministerswillbemovedfromposts

    within

    the

    party

    apparatus.

    Nguyen

    Bac

    Son,

    the

    deputy

    head

    of

    the

    partys

    Ideology

    and

    Propaganda Committee, would seem best equipped to take up the post of Minister of

    Information and Communication. Nguyen Minh Quang, who is the party chief for Central

    Agencies,islikelytofaceamajorchallengeinhisnewportfolioasMinisterofNaturalResources

    andEnvironment.

    Ithinkthemostimportantsignwillbethenumberofvoteseachprospectiveministerreceives.A

    lowvotewillindicatealackofconfidence.Overall,theNationalAssemblylookssettoapprovea

    team thatcanworkeffectivelywithPrimeMinisterNguyenTanDung.ThePrimeMinisterhas

    alsoselectedfourdeputyprimeministers,onelessthanbefore.Thisshouldbeamorecohesive

    teamthanthefivedeputyprimeministersinthelastterm.

    2.DoyoubelievethattheNationalAssemblywillbeabletosustain itsmomentumofopening

    thefloorforheateddebatesandgrillingcabinetmembers,giventhatacabinetmember,Deputy

    PMNguyenSinhHung,isbeinginstalledasthenewhousespeaker?Whyorwhynot?

    ANSWER: Ever since 1992 when the new Constitution and new Electoral Law ws adopted,

    deputiestotheNationalAssemblyhaveplayedanincreasingly importantroleincreatinga law

    governed state.Thenewdeputieswill inherit the legacyofprevious legislatures.NguyenSinh

    Hungwillno longeroccupy the post ofdeputyprimeminister andwill thereforenothave a

    conflictofinterestwhenCabinetministersarequestions.Sinhwillsoonlearnthathisroleisone

    ofpoliticalbrokerandconsensusseekerThequalityofthenewdeputieswillensurethatthey

    take on their responsibility to review government policy and the performance of individual

    ministers.Insum,thenewlegislaturewillbuildonthelegacyofthepastbutinagradualmanner.

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    3.OnofthemostsignificantfeaturesoftheoutgoingNationalAssembly inthe lattenurewad

    theabsenceofawatershedpolicyonboostingtheagriculturesector.Dontyouagreewiththis

    anddoyouseegroundsforhopethatthenewleadershipwilltakedrasticmeasurestoaddress

    thisshortcoming?

    ANSWER:PolicyissetbytheCabinetandbyministers.Vietnamsdevelopmentstrategyfavours

    theurbanareasandareskewedtowardspromotingindustrialgrowth.Idonotseeanysignsthat

    theseprioritieswillbealteredbytheGovernment.

    Sincedeputiescannotinitiatelegislationtheinitiativeforreformoftheagriculturesectormust

    come from the Cao Duc Phat who is being renominated as Minister of Agriculture and

    Development.

    4.What should Vietnams new leadership do to address the risingwealth disparity that has

    boggeddownthenationsdevelopmentoverthepastdecades?Howwilltherisinglandlessness

    ofVietnamesefarmersexacerbatetheproblem?

    ANSWER:Formanyyears the land issuehasbeen thecauseofnumerouspublicprotestsand

    disturbances.Thesolutionisnottodiscourageindividualsfrombecomingwealthy,buttoensure

    thatthe law isappliedequallytoall.Thismeansgivingprioritytoaddressingcorruptionorthe

    interventionofwealthinpolitics.TheGovernmentshouldcontinuetodevelopappropriatesocial

    welfaremeasurestoaddresstheproblemsofthosewholiveinpoverty.

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    Background Briefing:

    Vietnam: Evaluating the New

    Government

    Carlyle A. Thayer

    July 20, 2011

    [clientnamedeleted]

    1. How do you evaluate the performance of the Government over the pastfive

    years?Whatareitsmainachievementsandmainweaknesses?

    VietnamsGovernmentsuccessfullyweathered theglobal financial crisis throughastimulus package and maintained social stability at the same time. A major

    achievement has been tomaintaining comparatively high economic growth rates

    duringthisdifficultperiod.

    ThemajorshortcomingwastheCabinetsfailuretomaintaineffectiveoversightover

    state conglomerates such as Vinashin and the inability of the AntiCorruption

    SteeringCommitteetoeffectivelydealwithcorruption.

    2. How do you assess Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dungs role in economic

    managementduringhisfirstterminoffice?

    The Prime Minister is a nationalist who promotes the role of largescale state

    industriestoprotectVietnamfromglobalcompetition.ThePrimeMinisterisalsoa

    personaccustomedtogettinghisownway.ThePrimeMinisternowneedstoadopt

    amoreconsultativeapproachtodecisionmaking.Heshouldwintheconfidenceof

    former officials many of whom feel their advice and counsel is treated in a

    perfunctorymanner.

    3.WhowillbethemajornewappointmentsintheGovernment?.

    The reelection of Nguyen Tan Dung as primeministerwill be reassuring to the

    internationalcommunityastherewassomeuncertainlyoverwhatleadershiprolehe

    mightassumefollowingtheeleventhpartycongress.

    NguyenTanDungisaleaderwhohassuccessfullyturnedtheroleofprimeminister

    intoaproactiveone. In2007heunsuccessfullysought todecreasethenumberof

    deputyprimeministersandaddsomenewblood. Thistimethenumbersofdeputy

    primeministerswillbereducedfromfivetofour.

    Two deputy primeministers are his protgswho have been reelected.Nguyen

    ThienNhanwillhavetoprovehis iscapable inthisofficeafterhisexperiencewith

    theeducationportfolio.HoangTrungHaihasproventhathe iscapable instepping

    upaspermanentdeputyprimeminister.

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    Thetwonewcomersappeartobegoodchoices.VuVanNinhwillbringconsiderable

    experienceastheformerministeroffinance.NguyenXuanPhuchasworkedclosely

    withtheprimeminister inthepastandwillbeeffectivebecausehehastheprime

    ministersconfidence.Thenewteamofdeputyministersshouldbemoreunifiedand

    cohesivethanbefore

    4.WhataremajorchangesinnewCabinetarelikely?

    Duringthe lasttenurethereweretwoCabinetreshuffles,thefirst in2006andthe

    secondin2007.ThistimeitthereisnoneedforatwostepCabinetreshuffleasthe

    timingthenationalpartycongressandelectionstotheNationalAssemblyhavebeen

    synchronized.

    Nearlyonethirdof thenewCabinetare incumbentministersand theirreelection

    willbringstabilitytothegovernment.Eightofthenewministerswillstepupfrom

    beingdeputyminister tominister.Theywillbringexperienceandstability to their

    ministries.TheselectionofPhamBinhMinhisparticularlyimportantafterPhamGia

    Khiemtenure

    Twoofthenewministerswerereshuffledfromoneportfoliotoanother. VuDinh

    Hue will bring experience as head of the State Audit Agency to the Ministry of

    Finance. DinhLaThangwillbringhisadministrativeexperienceasthechairmanof

    PetroVietnamGrouptotheMinistryofTransport.

    Therearefournewcomerswhowillbemovingfrompartypoststostateministries:

    VuDucDam,whowillheadtheGovernmentOffice,servedaspartychiefofQuang

    Ninhprovince;NguyenThiHaiChuyen,willtakeovertheMinistryofLabour,Invalids

    andSocialAffairsafterservingasdeputyheadofthepartyInspectionCommission.

    NguyenMinhQuangwilltakechargeofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment, isthe

    formerpartychiefoftheCentralAgenciesCommittee.Finally,NguyenBacSon,takes

    over Information and Communication after serving as deputy headof the partys

    IdeologyandPropagandaCommittee.He isprobablybestqualifiedforhisnewjob

    outofthenewcomers.Allfournewministerswillhavetheirworkcutoutforthem

    andtheywillhavetoprovethemselves.Quangsteps intoadifficultportfoliogiven

    concern expressed by retiring National Assembly deputies over environmental

    issues.

    5.Whatshouldtheprioritiesforthenewgovernmentbeforitsnextfiveyearterm

    inpolitics,economicsandforeignaffairs?

    Inmyviewthetoppoliticalpriorityoverthenextfiveyearsshouldbetoensurethat

    all provincial party chiefs, all secretaries of peoples councils, and even the state

    presidentaredirectlyelected.

    More authority and resources should be allocated to the National Assembly to

    improve itscommitteesystem.Theyshouldbeempoweredtoholdpublichearings

    on importantpublicpolicymattersand tomakerecommendations to theNational

    Assemblyleadership.

    As for economics: the top priority must be to continue with the proactive

    integration into the global economy by reforming stateowned enterprises and

    removing barriers to foreign investment in domestic enterprises. Vietnam should

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    complete the process of joining the TransPacific Partnership. Finally, Vietnam

    shouldaimtobecomeselfsufficientinenergy.

    Vietnamhasemergedasan importantregionalpower inSoutheastAsia. Itwillnot

    havethesameopportunitiestoshowleadershipasitdidinthepastfiveyearswhen

    Vietnam served as ASEAN Chair and was a nonpermanent member of the UN

    SecurityCouncil.PrioritymustbegiventoplayingaconstructiveroleinbuildingupASEANandtheEastAsiaSummitaseffectivemultilateralorganizations.Thismeans

    working with the ASEAN Chair as well as major powers to develop an effective

    internationallegalregimetopreventconflictintheEastSea.

    Vietnam canalsomakea significant contribution to theASEANDefenceMinisters

    MeetingPlus by supporting initiatives tohave thisnew body adopt effective and

    practicalproposalsrelatedtoregionalsecurity.

    6.WhatwillbethemajorchallengeforVietnam,in5years,in10years?

    There are two important challenges in the next five years. The first will be to

    implement the maritime strategy to develop Vietnams coastal regions with its

    ExclusiveEconomicZonewithaparticulartimeofexploitinghydrocarbonresources.

    The secondmajor challenge is to raise Vietnams tertiary education sector up to

    worldclassstandards.

    Themostimportantchallengeoverthenexttenyearswillbetodealwiththeeffects

    ofclimatechangebyadoptingeffectiveandappropriatemitigationstrategies.

    7.Majoropportunitiesinpolitical,economicandsocialdevelopment?

    Vietnamwillfaceamajoropportunitytoadjustitspoliticalandeconomicinstitutions

    tothegrowingchangesinVietnamseconomyandsociety.Thiswillmeaneffectively

    devolvingpowerfromthecentretotheprovincesandlowerlevels.

    It also means allowing new social forces to play their role in the political and

    economicsystems.Forexample,theVietnamCommunistPartyshouldpermitlarger

    numbersofprivateentrepreneurstojoinitsranks.Vietnamspoliticalsystemshould

    reflect the newly emerging political economy. At the same time,Vietnam should

    create the conditions for awider diversity of choice in the selection ofNational

    Assemblydeputiesoverthenexthalfdecade.

    8.HowwillforeigninvestorsviewVietnamsnewCabinet?

    ForeigninvestorswillbereassuredbythereelectionofPrimeMinisterNguyenTan

    Dung,hischoiceofdeputyprimeministersandthecontinuityofhisnewCabinet.For

    example,theelevationofBuiQuangVinhfromdeputytoministerofPlanningand

    Investmentwillbereassuring.

    9. How do Vietnams relations with Australia, India, New Zealand add value to

    Vietnamsinternationallinks?

    Vietnamwill continue todevelop its comprehensivestrategicpartnershipswithall

    threecountries,underwhatevernameisusedtodescribebilateralrelations.Eachof

    thesecountriescancontributetothedevelopmentofVietnamseducationalsystem

    and offer experience in integrationwith the global economy. All three countries

    offeraccesstonewtechnologies.

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    AustraliaisanallyoftheUnitedStates,IndiaandNewZealandworkcloselywiththe

    U.S. on a variety of international issues.Vietnam can leverage its tieswith these

    threenationsinitsdealingswithothermajorpowers.

    10.IfconsultedbynewPrimeMinister,whatshouldhedofirst?Whatadvicewould

    yougive?

    I would advise the Prime Minister that he and his Cabinet should be more

    accountable to the public through greater transparency indecisionmaking.More

    information should be made available to a public that is becoming more

    sophisticated in its understanding of public policy.More effortmust bemade to

    explain government policies and getting feedback from Vietnamese citizens. The

    PrimeMinister should learn from the bauxitemining and highspeed railprojects

    thatwiderconsultationsinpolicymakingisnecessary.

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    Background Briefing:

    Vietnam: Nguyen Tan Dung

    Re-elected Prime Minister

    Carlyle A. Thayer

    July 26, 2011

    [clientnamedeleted]

    ProvideyourassessmentofNguyenTanDungsreelectionasprimeminister.

    ANSWER:ThereelectionofNguyenTanDungasprimeministerwillbereassuringto

    the international community as therewas someuncertainlyoverwhat leadership

    rolehemightassumefollowingtheeleventhpartycongress.

    ThePrimeMinisterNguyenTanDungisanationalistwhopromotestheroleoflarge

    scale state industries to protectVietnam from global competition.Dung is also a

    personaccustomedtogettinghisownway.ThePrimeMinisternowneedstoadopt

    amoreconsultativeapproachtodecisionmaking.

    NguyenTanDungisaleaderwhohassuccessfullyturnedtheroleofprimeminister

    intoaproactiveone. In2007heunsuccessfullysought todecreasethenumberof

    deputyprimeministersandaddsomenewblood. Thistimethenumbersofdeputy

    prime ministers will be reduced from five to four. The Prime Minister has also

    selected fourdeputyprimeministers,one less thanbefore.Thisshouldbeamore

    cohesiveteamthanthefivedeputyprimeministersinthelastterm.

    Two deputy primeministers are his protgswho have been reelected.Nguyen

    ThienNhanwillhavetoprovehis iscapable inthisofficeafterhisexperiencewith

    theeducationportfolio.HoangTrungHaihasproventhathe iscapable instepping

    upaspermanentdeputyprimeminister.

    Thetwonewcomersappeartobegoodchoices.VuVanNinhwillbringconsiderable

    experienceastheformerministeroffinance.NguyenXuanPhuchasworkedclosely

    withtheprimeminister inthepastandwillbeeffectivebecausehehastheprime

    ministers

    confidence.

    The

    new

    team

    of

    deputy

    ministers

    should

    be

    more

    unified

    and

    cohesivethanbefore

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    Background Briefing:

    Vietnams New Cabinet - 1

    Carlyle A. Thayer

    July 27, 2011

    [clientnamedeleted]

    CouldyouprovideabriefassessmentaboutVietnamsnewleadership>

    ANSWER:PrimeMinisterNguyenTanDungisanationalistwhowillpromotetherole

    oflargescalestateenterprisestoprotectVietnamfromglobalcompetition.Dungisaleaderwhohassuccessfullyturnedtheroleofprimeministerintoaproactiveone.

    Hisreappointmentasprimeministermeanshewillwieldevenmorepowerthanin

    thepast.

    DungsCabinetrepresentscontinuityoverchangegiventhenumberof incumbents

    whowerereappointedorreassignedplusthenumberofdeputyministersappointed

    toheadtheirrespectiveministries.

    Dungsmaindrawbackisthatheisapersonaccustomedtogettinghisownwayand

    reactsstronglywhendissentingviewsareheard.

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    Background Briefing:

    Vietnams New Cabinet: An

    Evaluation

    Carlyle A. Thayer

    July 27, 2011

    [clientnamedeleted]

    AstheNationalAssemblyisratifyingalineupofministersandheadsofministrylevel

    agenciesthisweek,couldyouprovideanassessmentonsomeofthefreshfacesthat

    standoutorsomefiguresyouareexpectingtoinjectnew lifeintothegovernmentperformancethistenure.

    ANSWER:ThenewCabinetwillhavefourdeputyprimeministersone lessthanthe

    previous Cabinet. Two deputy prime ministers are protgs of Prime Minister

    NguyenTanDungwhohavebeenreelected.HoangTrungHaihasproventhatheis

    capableinsteppingupaspermanentdeputyprimeminister.NguyenThienNhanwill

    have toprovehis is capable in thisofficeafterhisexperiencewith theeducation

    portfolio.

    Thetwonewcomersappeartobegoodchoices.VuVanNinhwillbringconsiderable

    experienceastheformerministeroffinance.NguyenXuanPhuchasworkedclosely

    withtheprimeminister inthepastandwillbeeffectivebecausehehastheprime

    ministersconfidence.Thenewteamofdeputyministersshouldbemoreunifiedand

    cohesivethanbeforeNearlyonethirdofthenewCabinetare incumbentministers

    andtheirreelectionwillbringstabilitytothegovernment.

    Eightofthenewministerswillstepupfrombeingdeputyministertominister.They

    willbring experience and stability to theirministries. The selectionof PhamBinh

    MinhisparticularlyimportantafterPhamGiaKhiemstenureasforeignminister.

    Twoofthenewministerswerereshuffledfromoneportfoliotoanother. VuDinh

    Hue will bring experience as head of the State Audit Agency to the Ministry of

    Finance. DinhLaThangwillbringhisadministrativeexperienceasthechairmanof

    PetroVietnamGrouptotheMinistryofTransport.

    Therearefournewcomerswhowillbemovingfrompartypoststostateministries:

    VuDucDam,whowillheadtheGovernmentOffice,servedaspartychiefofQuang

    Ninhprovince;NguyenThiHaiChuyen,willtakeovertheMinistryofLabour,Invalids

    andSocialAffairsafterservingasdeputyheadofthepartyInspectionCommission.

    NguyenMinhQuangwilltakechargeofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment, isthe

    formerpartychiefoftheCentralAgenciesCommittee.Finally,NguyenBacSon,takes

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    Background Briefing:

    Vietnams New Cabinet - 3

    Carlyle A. Thayer

    August 3, 2011

    [clientnamedeleted]

    ThenewproposednewCabinetlisthasbeenposted:

    http://baodientu.chinhphu.vn/Home/ThutuongtrinhQuochoiphechuancac

    thanhvienChinhphu/20118/95850.vgp

    Wewouldbeinterestedinyourassessment.ItlookslikethePrimeMinisterNguyen

    Tan Dungs hand is strengthened he's got four friends/allies as deputy prime

    ministers, thecentralbanker issomeonehe'sworkedwithbefore.LeHongAnh is

    tipped to take over for Truong Tan Sang on the party secretariat. What is your

    assessmentofthecabinetlineup?

    ANSWER:ThereelectionofNguyenTanDungasprimeministerwillbereassuringto

    the international community as therewas someuncertainlyoverwhat leadership

    rolehemightassumefollowingtheeleventhpartycongress.

    In 2007 Dung unsuccessfully sought to decrease the number of deputy prime

    ministers and add somenewblood. A compromisewas reached; the numberof

    deputyprimeministerswasexpanded from three to five.Threewere incumbents

    and twowere protgs of the primeminister. This time the numbers of deputy

    primeministerswasreducedfromfivetofour.

    Dungstwoprotgshavebeenreelecteddeputyprimeministers.HoangTrungHai

    has proven that he is capable and loyal and has been promoted to permanent

    deputyprimeminister.NguyenThienNhanwillhavetoprovehe iscapable inthis

    officeafterhislessthansuccessfulexperiencewiththeeducationportfolio..

    Thetwonewcomersappeartobesolidchoices.VuVanNinhwillbringconsiderable

    experienceastheformerministeroffinance.NguyenXuanPhuchasworkedclosely

    with

    the

    prime

    minister

    in

    the

    past

    and

    will

    be

    effective

    because

    he

    has

    the

    prime

    ministersconfidence.Thenewteamofdeputyministersshouldbemoreunifiedand

    cohesive than before Prime Ministers Nguyen Tan Dungs Cabinet represents

    continuityoverchange.Sevenincumbents onethirdoftheoutgoingCabinet were

    reappointedtotheirpreviousportfoliosandeightdeputyministerswereappointed

    to head their respective ministries. In other words, seventyone per cent of the

    Cabinetwereeitherincumbentministersorincumbentdeputyministers.

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    Therearesixnewfaces intheCabinet. Twoofthenewministerswerereassigned

    from senior postswith the state bureaucrace. Vuong DinhHoe the new Finance

    Minister,andDinhLaThang,thenewTransportMinistervacatedtheirpostasheads

    of the State Audit Agency and PetroVietnam respectively. Three new ministers

    previously held senior positions in the party apparatus: Information and

    Communication Minister Nguyen Bac Son was former head of the party Central

    Committees

    InformationandPropagandaCommission.ThenewministerofLabour,WarInvalids

    andSocialWelfare,NguyenThiHaiChuyen,vacatesherpositionasdeputychairof

    thepartyCentralCommitteesInspectionCommission.ThenewMinisterofNatural

    Resources and Environment,NguyenMinhQuang,was head of the party Central

    Agencies Committee. The sixth new minister, Vu Duc Dam, will head the

    GovernmentOfficewaselevatedfromhispreviouspostaspartybossofQuangNinh

    province.

    PrimeMinisterNguyenTanDungisaleaderwhohassuccessfullyturnedtheroleof

    primeminister intoarguably themostpowerfulposition inVietnam.Dungwillbe

    evenmoreproactiveinhissecondtermandwilldominateCabinetnowthathehas

    hissupportersinplaceasdeputyprimeministers.

    Nguyen Tan Dung and Le Hong Anh, the former Minister of Public Security are

    politicallyclose.AnhwillbeshiftedtoheadthepartySecretariat.Thiscombination

    willensurethatDungwieldsmorepowerthanbefore.HispoliticalrivalTruongTan

    Sanwilloccupythelargelyceremonialpostasstatepresident.

    No Cabinet in Vietnam has faced difficulties of the magnitude that confronted

    Vietnamin1985whenitfacedamajoreconomiccrisis.Thisledtodoimoi.Thenext

    significanthurdlecamein199798duringtheAsianFinancialCrisis.Vietnamwasnot

    yetfullyintegratedwiththeregionaleconomyandtheimpactwaslesssevere.The

    currenteconomicproblemsfacingVietnamaremoreseverethanduringDungsfirsttermasprimeministerwheninflationalsoraged.ThistimeDungandhisCabinetnot

    onlywillhave to tame inflationbut seriously tackle corruptionand the reformof

    stateownedenterprises.

    PrimeMinisterDungsmaindrawback isthathe isapersonaccustomedtogetting

    hisownwayandreactsstronglyagainstdissentingviews.

    NguyenVanBinhselevationfromdeputygovernortogovernoroftheStateBankof

    Vietnamisasafeappointment.Hehasservedasunderstudyandmustnowputhis

    experiencetowork.ButanewfacemaybuyVietnamsometimeasforeigninvestors

    wantandseewhatthenewleadershipteamdoes.

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    respective ministries. In other words, 71 per cent of the Cabinet were either

    incumbentministersorincumbentdeputyministers.

    Therearesixnewfaces intheCabinet. Twoofthenewministerswerereassigned

    from senior postswith the state bureaucracy. Vuong DinhHoe the new Finance

    Minister,andDinhLaThang,thenewTransportMinistervacatedtheirpostasheads

    of the State Audit Agency and PetroVietnam respectively. Three new ministerspreviously held senior positions in the party apparatus: Information and

    Communication Minister Nguyen Bac Son was former head of the party Central

    CommitteesInformationandPropagandaCommission.ThenewministerofLabour,

    War Invalids and SocialWelfare,Nguyen ThiHai Chuyen, vacates her position as

    deputy chair of the party Central Committees Inspection Commission. The new

    MinisterofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment,NguyenMinhQuang,washeadof

    the party CentralAgencies Committee. The sixth newminister,VuDucDam,will

    head theGovernmentOfficewaselevated fromhispreviouspostaspartybossof

    QuangNinhprovince.

    2.Whatdothecabinetchoicessay/reflect?

    PrimeMinisterNguyenTanDungisaleaderwhohassuccessfullyturnedtheroleof

    primeminister intoarguably themostpowerfulposition inVietnam.Dungwillbe

    evenmoreproactiveinhissecondtermandwilldominateCabinetnowthathehas

    hissupportersinplaceasdeputyprimeministers.

    Nguyen Tan Dung and Le Hong Anh, the former Minister of Public Security are

    politicallyclose.AnhwillbeshiftedtoheadthepartySecretariat.Thiscombination

    willensurethatDungwieldsmorepowerthanbefore.HispoliticalrivalTruongTan

    Sanwilloccupythelargelyceremonialpostasstatepresident.

    3. This cabinet faces task of curbing Asia's highest inflation, turning around FDI,

    whichhasdropped.Can youput these challenges in perspectivehowwould you

    comparewhatthey'vegottodovs.previouscabinets.

    No Cabinet in Vietnam has faced difficulties of the magnitude that confronted

    Vietnamin1985whenitfacedamajoreconomiccrisis.Thisledtodoimoi.Thenext

    significanthurdlecamein199798duringtheAsianFinancialCrisis.Vietnamwasnot

    yetfullyintegratedwiththeregionaleconomyandtheimpactwaslesssevere.The

    currenteconomicproblemsfacingVietnamaremoreseverethanduringDungsfirst

    termasprimeministerwheninflationalsoraged.ThistimeDungandhisCabinetnot

    onlywillhave to tame inflationbut seriously tackle corruptionand the reformof

    stateownedenterprises.

    PrimeMinisterDungsmaindrawback isthathe isapersonaccustomedtogetting

    hisownwayandreactsstronglyagainstdissentingviews.

    4.Anycommentsyoumighthaveonappt.ofBinhascentralbankgovernor?Seems

    likehe'sgotachallengingjobofwinningbackinvestorconfidence.NguyenVanBinhselevationfromdeputygovernortogovernoroftheStateBankof

    Vietnamisasafeappointment.Hehasservedasunderstudyandmustnowputhis

    experiencetowork.ButanewfacemaybuyVietnamsometimeasforeigninvestors

    wantandseewhatthenewleadershipteamdoes.

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    Vietnams Cabinet July 2011

    Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung incumbent

    1st

    Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai incumbent

    Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Thien Nhan incumbent

    Deputy Prime Minister Vu Van Ninh new

    Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc new

    Agriculture and Rural Development Cao Duc Phat incumbent

    Construction Trinh Dinh Dung VM Promoted

    Culture, Sport and Tourism Hoang Tuan Anh incumbent

    Education and Training Pham Vu Luan incumbent

    Finance Vuong Dinh Hue new State Audit

    Foreign Affairs Pham Binh Minh VM Promoted

    Government Office Vu Duc Dam New Quang

    Nam

    Health Nguyen Thi Kim Tien VM Promoted

    Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang incumbent

    Information and Communications Nguyen Bac Son New CCIdeology &

    Propaganda

    Interior/Home Affairs Nguyen Thai Binh VM Promoted

    Justice Ha Hung Cuong incumbent

    Labor, War Invalids and Social Welfare Nguyen Thi Hai

    Chuyen

    New Deputy CC

    Inspection

    Cmttee

    National Committee for Ethnic Groups Giang Seo Phu incumbent

    National Defence Phung Quang Thanh incumbent

    Natural Resources and Environment Nguyen Minh Quang New VCP

    Central AgenciesPlanning and Investment Bui Quang Vinh VM Promoted

    Public Security Tran Dai Quang VM Promoted

    Science and Technology Nguyen Quan VM Promoted

    Transportation Dinh La Thang New Chmn

    PetroVietnam

    State Bank of Vietnam Nguyen Van Binh VM Promoted

    State Audit

    State Inspection

    State President