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VietnamsLeadershipDynamics

EmeritusProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer

Presenta=on[deleted]

Washington,D.C.,June7,2013

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Party Power Structure

>3.5millionmembers

Congress1,377delegates

CentralCommiee175

members

Politburo14

members

SecretaryGeneral

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ThreeApproaches

Patronageandpowerasthekeyby-productofVietnamsna=onalpartycongressprocess

Personalityclashes,policydifferencesandideology Leadershipselec=onasaproductofsectoral(interestgroup)representa=on

Notmutuallyexclusive

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VietnamCommunistParty

11th National Congress

January 2011

Nguyn Ph TrngSecretary-General

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Central Executive Committee

175 full and 25 alternate members, Central Committeerequired to meet in plenary session twice a year. Over

last 8 years it has met on average 3 times a year.

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Fullmembers

retainedAlternatememberspromoted

Newfullmembers

Genera=onalChangeontheVCP

CentralCommieeElected2011

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SectoralComposi=onoftheCentralCommiee2011

9%

38%42%

11%

SeniorParty

CentralParty-State

Secondary/Provincial

ArmedForces

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13

13

22

3

5

CCMembersHoldingCentralParty

PostsN=38Politburo

CentralCommieeCommissions

Partymedia

MassOrganisa=on

Secretariat

Inspec=onCommiee

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11

7

75

17

CCMembersHoldingCentral

StatePostsN=47

Cabinet

Na=onalAssembly

Othercentralstate

MassOrganisa=on

DeputyMinister

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5720

5

1

11

CCMembersHoldingProvincial

PostsN=94

PartySecretary

DeputyPartySecretary

Other

Regional

DistrictPartySecretary

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Political Bureau 2011

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Cabinet - Chnh Ph

(literallygovernment

)

From collective leadership to ministerial responsibility

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Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung

HeadsCabinet

MemberofPolitburo

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The State

President

Trng Tn Sang

Vice President

Nguyn Th Doan

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Na=onal

Assembly-QucHi

NguynSinhHng-Chair

Amendmentsto

1992Cons=tu=on

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Rule of Law

Proceedings broadcast on radio and television, voting results made

public, full-time deputies, Ministers grilled, legislation amended, twoof the Prime Ministers Cabinet nominees rejected, reviewed bauxite

contract with Chinese firm, high-speed rail rejected, opne deputy

called for Prime Minister to resign, confidence vote

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Vietnams Power elite

SecretaryGeneral

PrimeMinister

ChairNa=onalAssemblyStanding

Commiee

PermanentSecretaryPartySecretariat

StatePresident

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Equilibrium2011

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GrowingPoweroftheOfficeofthePrimeMinister

StatePresident,SecretaryGeneral,PrimeMinister

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7thPlenumOctober2012

Cri=cismandself-cri=cismcampaign Politburovoted9:5(or10:4)torecommendthattheCentralCommieedisciplinea

certaincomrade CentralCommieeoverrodethisrecommenda=on

DespiteshortcomingsNguyenTanDungbouncedback(sectoralbacking)

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Over 65 in 2016 12th Congress

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Under65in2016

DinhTheHuynh NguyenThienNhan NguyenXuanPhiuc

NguyenThiKimNgan TongThiPhiong TranDaiQuang

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Enlarged11thPlenum?

Mid-waypointbetween11thand12thna=onalpartycongresses

Amid-termconference ReplacementofPartySecretaryGeneral Addi=onalmember(s)ofPolitburo? Shun=ngasidesomeincumbents

NguyenThienNhantoFatherlandFront

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12thNa=onalPartyCongress

Early2016 Exemp=onstoagelimitscanbemadefortwoincumbents

NguyenTanDungcouldbeexemptedandbecomenextpartySecretaryGeneral

TruongTanSangunlikelytoberetained

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Conclusion

Ins=tu=onalinterestsmi=gateagainststrongpartyleader

State(CabinetandOfficeofPrimeMinister)hasgrownmorepowerfulthanparty

Presidenthaspushedforgreaterpower Thepartyhasaemptedtoclawbacksomepowerfromtheofficeoftheprimeminister

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VietnamsLeadershipDynamics

EmeritusProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer

Presenta=on[deleted]

Washington,D.C.,June7,2013