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The Future of US Alliances in AsiaAustralia’s Security Perspec8ves

Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer

Presenta8on to the Conference on the Future of US Alliances in Asia

Co‐sponsored by Pacific Forum CSIS, Yuchenco Center De La Salle

University and the Philippines Ins8tute for Peace, Violence and

Terrorism Research, New World Hotel, ManilaMay 26‐27, 2011

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ANZUS Treaty 1951

Ar8cle IV

•  Each Party recognizes that an armed aack in the PacificArea on any of the Par8es would be dangerous to its ownpeace and safety and declares that it would act to meet thecommon danger in accordance with its cons8tu8onal

processes…Ar8cle V

•  For the purpose of Ar8cle IV, an armed aack on any of thePar8es is deemed to include an armed aack on themetropolitan territory of any of the Par8es, or on the islandterritories under its jurisdic8on in the Pacific or on itsarmed forces, public vessels or aircra[ in the Pacific.

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Alliance Benefits

Security guarantee

High‐level access

Intelligence sharing

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Alliance Benefits

Defence technology

Economic benefits FTA

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Brief Background

•  196 New Zealand suspended

 – AUSMIN

•  9‐11 Australian Parliament invokes ANZUS

Treaty

•  Global War on Terrorism

 – Iraq, Afghanistan

•  Other major commitments – East Timor, Bougainville, Solomon Islands

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Australia’s Straegic Interests

•  Defence White Paper 2009

 – secure Australia

 – Secure immediate neighbourhood – Strategic stability Asia‐Pacific Region

 – Stable rules‐based global security

order

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Primary Security Concerns

•  External power domina8on of region

 –  strategic implica8ons of China’s rise

•  Negag8ve impact of global economic crisis

•  Regional instability

 – Terrorism, insurgency and communal violence

•  Terrorism and it impact on Australian interests

and ci8zens

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2000 Defence White Paper

•  Globaliza8on – good for security

•  US primacy – likely to endure

 – But cannot be taken for granted

•  Management of Great Power rela8ons

 – Instability or conflict of major concern

•  Southeast Asia – area of great promise

 – But South China Sea territorial claims – Indonesia, East Timor, PNG

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Change

•  Con8nuing commitment to East Timor

•  Impact of 9‐11 – GWOT

 – Commitment to Afghanistan and Iraq

•  Bali bombings October 2002 and further

major terrorist incidents in Indonesia

•  Border protec8on

•  2004 Tsunami and Cyclone Nargis 2005 – HA/DR

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Change

•  Five Power Defence Arrangements

 – From Integrated Air Defence System to Integrated

Area Defence System

 – Greater prominence to combined and jointexercises to address conven8onal threats

 – Asymmemtric threats – non‐conven8onal

•  Global terrorism, piracy, EEZ protec8n, HA/DR,

smuggling of illicit drugs•  Mari8me security

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Factors Shaping Security Percep8ons

•  Global economic and financial crisis

•  China’s military modernisa8on and

transforma8on•  U.S. stepped up engagement

•  Regional arms procurements

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Factors Shaping Security Percep8ons

•  Importance of mari8me domain

•  Transna8onal security issues

•  ‘everydaty security challenges’•  Evolu8on of regional security

architecture

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Role of Domes8c Poli8cs

•  Genuine bipar8san support for

ANZUS

 – Excep8on Iraq War commitment

•  Major role in border protec8on

policies

 – Illegal migrants

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Conclusion

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The Future of US Alliances in AsiaAustralia’s Security Perspec8ves

Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer

Presenta8on to the Conference on the Future of US Alliances in Asia

Co‐sponsored by Pacific Forum CSIS, Yuchenco Center De La Salle

University and the Philippines Ins8tute for Peace, Violence and

Terrorism Research, New World Hotel, Manila

May 26‐27, 2011