Technology Transfer Center The Keys to California's Future USDA Rural Development California Ken...

Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA

The Keys to California's Future

USDA Rural Development CaliforniaKen Dozier

NASA Far West RTTC8/25/2005


Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric

The Future

“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”


Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency

Velocity

“ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago”


Truth Knowledge Belief

Universal

No Debate

Effect

Social

Converge on debate

Cause

Personal

Diverge on debate

Cause

10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)

What is Knowledge ?


“where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons” - Popular Mechanics, 1949

“I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995

“This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”

- Western Union, Internal memo, 1876

“The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”- Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

The Future

Source: “The Future is Ours”Communication of the ACM, March 2001


DevelopersDrivers

Gates “Microsoft” XeroxJobs “Apple” XeroxClark “SGI” E&S, StanfordClark “Netscape” University of

Illinois

The Non-Linear


Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International

3. Finland4. Luxembourg5. Netherlands6. Hong Kong7. Ireland8. Sweden9. Canada10.Switzerland

Global Competition1.

2.


Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate

Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond


Industry Clusters

– “Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth.

Industry Cluster Electronic

Key Export Oriented Firms

Key Supplier Oriented Firms

Key Economic Infrastructure Providers

Consumer Electronic Assembly

Computer Hardware Assembly

Tool, Die & Machinery

Office & Production Supply

Specialized Component Supply

Education & Training Institutions

Physical Infrastructure Providers

Financial and Regulatory Institutions

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)


½ Fortune 500 Companies Gone

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)


(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)Industry Clusters


194 0

-196

5

196 5

-199

0

199 0

-201

5Motion Pictures

AviationElectronics

Defense Aviation

AutomobileManufacturing

FoodProcessing

Agriculture

Theme Parks

Motion Pictures

Television

ComputerPeripherals

Defense Instruments

Commercial Aviation

MetalProducts

GeneralManufacturing

InformationProcessing

DefenseAerospace

Theme Parks/Tourism

Visual Media Production

Professional Services

Multimedia Technology

Engineering Services

Technology-Based

ManufacturingGeneral

Manufacturing

Information Processing

Business Services

The Evolution of Industry(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)


EZ and Incubator Spatial Distribution


6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce

Demassification

Denationalization

Despacialization

Disintermediation

Disaggregation

Decentralization

Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild


1st Perspective

• Knowledge is a New Kind of Asset– The foundation of industrialized economy is shifting from natural

resources to intellectual assets (Hansen 99) (Davis 98)– Knowledge assets are viewed as factors of production that may be

more important than traditional resources of capital, labor and land. (Davis 98)

– Converging technologies and rapid innovations can transform markets Overnight . Administrative systems no longer provide the underpinnings of value creation. (Teece 98)

– Reward goes to those who are good a sensing and seizing opportunities. Dynamic capabilities are most likely to be resident in firms that are highly entrepreneurial. (Teece 98)


2nd Perspective• Entrepreneurship Super Normal Wealth Creator

– Business Environments Have Become Hypercompetitive because of the High Magnitude and Velocity of Interfirm Rivalries (D’Aveni, 94)

– Innovations in Products, Services, Business Processes, and Organizational Designs are Creating Dramatic Discontinuities in Product- Market Spaces and Disrupting the Traditional Approaches to Competitive Strategies and Business Conduct (Christensen, 97)

– In the Short Run, Entrepreneurial Firms Reaps Supernormal Returns (Create Wealth) as Established Incumbents and Rivals Seek to Understand the Competitive Disruptions in their Market Space.(Christensen 97)

– Thus Competition Occurs in the Form of a Series of Market Disruption Moves by New Entrants or Entrepreneurial Firms and Efforts by Incumbents and Rivals to Shape Their Response Actions (Young et al 96)


3rd Perspective• Entrepreneurial Firms Represent a New Online Community• Network computing, supported by advanced communications infrastructure,

can facilitate collaborative entrepreneuralism (Teece 98)• Successful business models set themselves apart in their communication

design leading to a deconstruction of traditional value chains and the emergence of value Webs. (Lechner 01)

• The most critical factor for a venture business success is how to implement and commercialize lab-based technology/knowledge/ideas into actual products and/or services (Sung 01)

• Entrepreneurial firms use knowledge to reshape clusters of assets in distinctive and unique combinations to serve ever changing customer needs. (Teece 98)

• The key sources of wealth creation at the dawn of the new millennium will lie with new enterprise formation. (Teece 98)


Info-Tech

Nano-Tech

Bio-Tech

Technologies Change Fast

Copyright SRI International 2002


Moore’s Law One Decade Left



California Council on Science and Technology 2004


Two Basic Methods

• Nanofabrication – Nanoscale Engineering– Precise Sculpting or Building of Enhanced and New

Materials– Man Made Tools of processes, products or structures

• Self Assembly– Atoms and Molecules Growing Structures– Nanotubes


New Materials *• Before Nano we took the materials the earth

provided (wood, stone, ore) and found creative applications

• Now we can manage the composition and combination of atoms, to form new stronger lighter metals, more flexible ceramics, more conductive plastics

• *The Next Big Thing is Really Small, Jack Uldrich and Deb Newberry (2003)


Nanotechnology Timeline

California Council on Science and Technology 2004


Price per Megabyte

1988 $ 11.00 per Megabyte

Today $ 0.01 per Megabyte

IBM Millipede (2 years)

$ 0.00001 per Megabyte

Nantero/Zettacore (4 years)

$ 0.00000001 per Megabyte

Hewlett Packard (6 years)

$ 0.00000000001 per Megabyte

Source: Jack Uldrich, “The Next Big Thing is Really Small”


0 2

9 28

Computing SynergyPossibility for creating N(2(N-1)-1) value




Exponential EconomyAn increasing attribute of our knowledge age


High Performance Computing (HPC)

• Gigaflop – One Billion Floating Point Operations per Second

• Teraflop – One Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second

• Petaflop- One Thousand Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second


HPC and Next Generation Biology

• Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions

• This computation would take three years on a PetaFLOP system or

• Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries.


• Simulating the activity of a single protein, taking into account each atom in the protein,

• Would take months using a PetaFLOPS-class computer

HPC and Next Generation Biology


Americas Most Wired Town

In 2000,

Blacksburg, VATotal population: 43,849

Total Households: 15,319

Source: Demographic Profile BEV, Andrea Kavanaugh


Blacksburg’s Telecommunication Philosophy

• Public has funded parks, roads, libraries, safety and sanitation for over 50 years.

• Every service was once provided by the private sector

• Public took over to protect common good

• Public Investment in telecommunications is necessary for viability in the Information economy.

Source: Andrew Cohill, “Telco. For neighborhood and communities”


Blacksburg's Level Playing Field

• Regulated monopoly service providers invested infrastructure in a risk free environment with a guaranteed rate of return.

• In many communities this is a source of income

• Local and regional entrepreneurial start-ups must compete against established monopolies.



Blacksburg’s Edge

• Modestly Invest in four low risk telecommunications areas.

• Allows startups access to the infrastructure needed to remain viable in the Information Economy.

• This has:– Spurred further private sector investment– Created jobs– Expanded the tax base– Provided greater choice in services



Community Investments

Source: Micheal Cohill, “Telco. For neighborhood and communities”

Community investment in duct allows small and regional entrepreneurial telcom companies to compete with “old” monopoly

services providers

may be provided by either the community or the

service provider. All present and future voice, video, and data services can be

delivered to the homes on a single fiber pair

Multimedia Service Access points, keep local

video, voice, and Internet data traffic within the community which reduce costs for all in

the community

Co-location facilities provide a place for service

equipment. Shared facilities reduce cost for all.

Duct

Dark Fiber

Co-location facilities

Date exchange Points


Source: Broadband Communication Systems, Conrad

HighBurst

Low Burst

64 K 1.5M 45M 150M 600M

bps

X.25

ISDN

FrameRelay

SwitchedT-Carriers

Dedicated Private lineand Ethernet

SMDS

1.6G

ATM/BISDN

Myrinet

DSL

Dialup

High Speed Services


Smart Building Project

• The 6 packs• 4 Category 7 cable• 1 Fiber Optic• 1 Coax Cable

• Energy and Efficiency

Image courtesy of Johnson Controls

The connection point in each cubicle / office

• ATM to the desktop.• A coaxial and fiber optic connection for next

generation high-speed bandwidth requirements like streaming video and distributive computing.

• Additional Ethernet ports for multiple connection.


Media Bandwidth

DSL/ Cable

IEEE 1394 / Firewire

Gigabit Ethernet

LASER / Fast Ethernet

10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet Microwave

G2 Wireless

G3 / Wireless LAN

Async. Trans. Mode (ATM)

G1 Wireless

10Gig Ethernet

Voic

e Inte

rnet

Acc

ess

Gam

ing File

sha

ring

Dig

ital M

usic

NTS

C V

ideo

VHS

Vide

o MPE

G V

ideo

DV

Vide

oH

DTV

Vid

eo

10^11

10^10

10^9

10^8

10^7

10^6

10^5

10^4

Ban

dwid

th R

equi

red

Bits

/sec

(bps

)


Broadband over Powerlines (BPL)

Source: The Christian Science Monitor, “Web access may be as lose as an electrical outlet”

• A third alternative to cable company or from the local telephone company for broadband.

• Millions of miles of powerlines already in place. Reach people left out by cable and telephone companies.

• BPL improves efficiency to power companies with interactivity.

• Utilities can quickly identify where outages have taken place, read meters remotely, and conduct preventive maintenance.


High Performance Grid Computing


Blacksburg Supercomputer• Virginia Tech created cluster of 1,100

regular desktop Power Mac G5s.• Performance of 10 teraflops and peak of 17

teraflops • January 2004, rank its as the 3rd fastest

supercomputer in the world.• Built with a budget of less than 5 million

dollars• Only needed 3,000 square feet with the use

of small efficient rack-mounted cooling systems with outdoor chillers.

Source: VirginiaTech Research Division


Assessing Your Technology

Indu

stry

Ado

ptio

n of

Tec

hnol

ogy

Executive’s Approach to Technology

CEO Not Involved CEO Involved

Bef

ore

Tech

nolo

gy(N

on-C

usto

mer

Fac

ing)

Afte

r-Te

chno

logy

(Cus

tom

er F

acin

g)

CIO Magazine June 2002


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