USC Viterbi School of Engineering WESRAC Bio, Nano, Info The Keys to California's Future CALED...

USC Viterbi School of EngineeringWESRAC

Bio, Nano, InfoThe Keys to California's

Future CALED Conference

Ken DozierExecutive Director

WESRAC4/24/2006


One Hundred Years Ago• Life expectancy was Forty-Seven Years• 8000 Cars• 144 Miles of Paved Road• 95% of the Births Occurred at Home• Pneumonia and Influenza Leading Killers• 6% of American’s graduated from High School• Lee De Forest “father of the radio” was persecuted

for mail fraud for his claim that he could transmit the human voice across the Atlantic


“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”

Jack Welch, Former Chairman General Electric

The Future


Accelerating Rate of Change• Challenging traditional institutions, practices and

beliefs• All too often, well intentioned efforts to solve

pressing problems actually makes the situation worse

• The challenge facing us is how to move to tools and processes that help us understand compexity (John D Sterman 2000)

• Technology has made life more complex Chris Capossela Microsoft


Is Sterman Right?

• For every 100 Dollars We Spend on the Retired Workforce “Digital Isolated”

• We Spend 10 Dollars on the Emerging Workforce “Digital Natives”

• We Spend 1 Dollar on the Existing Workforce “Digital Immigrants”


Info-Tech

Nano-Tech

Bio-Tech

Technologies Change Fast

Copyright SRI International 2002


People Don’t

Truth Knowledge Belief

Universal

No Debate

Effect

Social

Converge on debate

Cause

Personal

Diverge on debate

Cause

10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)


Myths

• In 10,000 years the world’s population has doubled ten times, this trend will contine (peaks 2050, will never happen again)

• Like all animals the more food humans have the more babies they have (fewer)• Agriculture will always be an exportable resource (No Lester Thurow)• The US has fewer then 10% factory workers (5%)• The Loss of 316 Thousand Manufacturing Jobs in California from 2000-2003 is an anomaly to

California’s fault (55 million World Wide, China lost 5 million)• There is a wholesale shift of production from developed countries to China (technology)• This shift signals a shift economic decline. (US factory output has increased 4% annually since

1991, faster than the GDP)• Manufacturing is down from 26% of GDP to 13%(measued in constant prices % unchanged

since 1980• California is bad at retaining jobs (all MSA’s loose at the same rate)• When companies leave a location they take the people. (jobs leave people stay)


Job Creation is the Key• Entrepreneurship significant driver of regional• economic growth• Positive correlation between areas of high

entrepreneurship/high economic growth• Regions with high entrepreneurship: significantly

higher rates of employment, wages, productivity• Return on innovation investment greater for

regions able to support high entrepreneurship• Innovation creates economic growth when

entrepreneurship meets technology


DevelopersDrivers

Gates “Microsoft” XeroxJobs “Apple” XeroxClark “SGI” E&S, StanfordClark “Netscape” University of

Illinois

Innovation


New Pushes Out the Old

Technology Based

Te

chn

olo

gy M

atu

rity

High

Low

High Low

Nanotech

Biotech

Infotech (HPC & Connectivity)

electronics

software

Growing Talent Pool

Bye, Bye


Information Technology• Two Primary Components

• Computation (This session)

• Connectivity (Next session


Computing the Future• Practice of Science has undergone another

revolution• Kuhn’s “paradigm shift”, telescope,

calculus, computer science• Computing no longer merely help scientists

instead it produces “an orderly, formal framework and exploratory apparatus for all science. Economist Mar 2006


High Performance Computing (HPC)

• Gigaflop – One Billion Floating Point Operations per Second

• Teraflop – One Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second

• Petaflop- One Thousand Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second



Exponential EconomyAn increasing attribute of our knowledge age


High Performance Grid Computing


Small Wonders• Atoms are the fundamental building blocks of

matter• So small they are difficult to describe and hard to

imagine• At very small scale properties of a material, such

as color, magnetism a the ability to conduct electricity change in unexpected ways

• Can be manipulated with a probe called with a scanning tunnel microscope (STM)


California Council on Science and Technology 2004


Two Basic Methods

• Set out to deliberately exploit the strange properties of this small world

• Nanofabrication – Nanoscale Engineering (STM)– Precise Sculpting or Building of Enhanced and New

Materials– Man Made Tools of processes, products or structures

• Self Assembly (Agriculture)– Atoms and Molecules Growing Structures– Nanotubes


New Materials *

• Before Nano we took the materials the earth provided (wood, stone, ore) and found creative applications

• Now we can manage the composition and combination of atoms, to form new stronger lighter metals, more flexible ceramics, more conductive plastics

• *The Next Big Thing is Really Small, Jack Uldrich and Deb Newberry (2003)


Exciting and New• When the size gets very small then the ratio between

surface area and volume rises• Nano sugar dissolves better in water and makes better

icing• Nano silver takes on antimicrobial bandages for burns• Nano gold melts at several hundred degrees lower• Nano copper looses its ability to conduct electricity• Metallic rubber (Blacksburg) flexes but conducts

electricity• Solar Cell paint• Nano fabrics are stain and odor proof


Price per Megabyte

1988 $ 11.00 per Megabyte

Today $ 0.01 per Megabyte

IBM Millipede (2 years)

$ 0.00001 per Megabyte

Nantero/Zettacore (4 years)

$ 0.00000001 per Megabyte

Hewlett Packard (6 years)

$ 0.00000000001 per Megabyte

Source: Jack Uldrich, “The Next Big Thing is Really Small”


Nanotechnology Timeline

California Council on Science and Technology 2004


Expect to See

• Materials as strong as diamonds and lighter than aluminum

• Composites that act as heat conductors, shields from radiation, provides wireless communication and converts heat into electricity

• Nanosensors and energy sources to make materials self repairing (cars, bridges, buildings, clothes)

• Solar collecting materials that can be “painted on” to collect, store and apply energy (room light cell phones, buildings, wearable computer)


High Impact Application• • Advanced Materials• – High strength-to-weight composites for vehicle primary structures and habitats• – Hydrogen resistant nanostructured materials for cryotanks• – High thermal conductivity materials for heat sinks, heat pipes, and radiators• – High temperature materials for propulsion systems and thermal protection systems• – High electrical conductivity materials for wiring• – Self-healing materials for repairing impact damage and wire insulation• – Space-durable materials resistant to ultraviolet and particle radiation• – Self-assembling materials for in-space fabrication• • Power• – High energy density batteries and fuel cells• – High efficiency photovoltaic cells• • Sensing• – Bio-chemical sensors for monitoring environmental contaminants in crew habitats• – Bio-chemical sensors for detecting the signatures of life on other planets• – Chemical systems for identifying, processing, and utilizing planetary resources• • Integral Health Management• – Systems that incorporate integral sensors and processors for fault detection and diagnosis• • High Performance Computing• – Fault-tolerant reconfigurable processors, micro-controllers, and storage devices• • Extreme Environment Electronics• – Microelectronic devices that can operate reliably in extreme temperature and radiation environments

Source: Neville I. Marzwell, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory


Climbing the Helical Staircase

• Knowledge is Power Sir Francis Bacon 17th Century

• Industrial Revolution – Physical Sciences• 50 years ago the now famous double helix

structure of DNA was published• Either strand of the helix could be used as a to

duplicate the other• A single strand acts as a message tape telling a cell

which proteins to make “Economist 2003”



Color Code• Red is for Medical

– Bald be gone– Human spare parts– Small Firms

• Green is Agriculture– Genetically Modified Crops

• Industrial is White– Biodegradable Plastics and Artificial Fibers


GNOME (Red)• Biological Periodic Table

• Personal drugs and processes

• New forms of analysis

• proactive treatment

• Fountain of Youth


TransformingMedical Care

• Bioinformatics and computational biology

• will enable breakthroughs in basic biological research

• and improvements in the prevention, treatment,

• and cure of diseases.


HPC and Next Generation Biology

• Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions

• This computation would take three years on a PetaFLOP system or

• Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries.


• PetaFLOPS computers—capable of performing a thousand

• trillion mathematical operations per second, 25 times faster than

• the largest supercomputers today—will open new doors to

• understanding the functions of biological molecules.

HPC and Next Generation Biology


Time to Change• Innovate America• “Innovate or Abdicate”• (U.S. lead in technology, standard of living)• “Innovation will be single most important factor in determining• America’s success through 21st Century”• • American business, government, workers and• universities face unprecedented acceleration of• global change, relentless pressure for short term• results, and fierce competition from• countries that seek innovation-driven future• • For past 25 years, U.S. has optimized• organizations for efficiency/quality; next 25• years, must optimize for innovation


“Innovate America” – A NationalAgenda with Three Elements

• • Talent• – Build a innovation education strategy for a diverse,• innovative and technically-trained workforce• – Catalyze next generation of American innovators

• • Investment• – Energize entrepreneurial economy• – Reinforce risk-taking and long-term investment

• • Infrastructure• – Create national consensus of innovation growth strategies• – Create 21st Century intellectual property regime• –– Build 21st Century innovation infrastructures


WESRAC’S Job is to create jobs KEN DOZIER’S WESRAC TEAM AT USC IS PART OF THE NATIONAL TRADE ADJUSTMENT ASSISTANCE (TAA) PROGRAM THAT HAS RETAINED OR CREATED 48,000 JOBS IN COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE NATION SINCE 2000

THE TAA PROGRAM PROVIDES 75% OF THE COST OF TECHINICAL ASSISTANCE TO IMPORT IMPACTED MANUFACTURERS TO BECOME GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE

KEN IS LOOKING FOR MORE OF THESE MANUFACTURERS WHO ARE MAKING THE COMMITMENT TO FIGHT COMPETITION, IMPROVE PROCESSES, AND GROW AND FLOURISH

TAA EQUALS JOBS FOR YOUR COMMUNITY!

WANT TO KNOW MORE?


Help Ken reach more Manufacturers fighting Import Competition

Visit our WTAAC website: http://wesrac.usc.edu

The “LITMUS TEST” is the first step a firm takes to provide us qualifying information:http://wesrac.usc.edu/wtaac/litmus.html

Still have some questions?CONTACT: Mary Rhedin (213) 743-4443 EMAIL: [email protected]


WIRED Project Department of Labor Workforce Innovation in Regional Economic Development initiative

"Innovation, education and entrepreneurship: those are the keys that will open the door to challenging and rewarding jobs."Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, February 2, 2006

• Interface with industry/economic development academia to support/develop education/training resources

• Create sustainable innovation economic development model

• Identify candidate companies for projects

WESRAC is a funded-partner of WIRED

USC Viterbi School of Engineering WESRAC Bio, Nano, Info The Keys to California's Future CALED...

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