Technology Transfer Center Bio, Nano, Info The Keys to California's Future The Economic Development...

Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA

Bio, Nano, InfoThe Keys to California's

Future The Economic Development Program

Advisory Committee

Ken DozierNASA Far West RTTC

5/19/2005


One Hundred Years Ago• Life expectancy was Forty-Seven Years• 8000 Cars• 144 Miles of Paved Road• 95% of the Births Occurred at Home• Pneumonia and Influenza Leading Killers• 6% of American’s graduated from High School• Lee De Forest “father of the radio” was persecuted

for mail fraud for his claim that he could transmit the human voice across the Atlantic


Industry Clusters (Jobs?)

– “Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth.

Industry Cluster Electronic

Key Export Oriented Firms

Key Supplier Oriented Firms

Key Economic Infrastructure Providers

Consumer Electronic Assembly

Computer Hardware Assembly

Tool, Die & Machinery

Office & Production Supply

Specialized Component Supply

Education & Training Institutions

Physical Infrastructure Providers

Financial and Regulatory Institutions

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

B01-039


“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”

Jack Welch, Former Chairman General Electric

The Future


½ Fortune 500 Companies Gone

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)


Info-Tech

Nano-Tech

Bio-Tech

Technologies Change Fast

Copyright SRI International 2002


People Don’t

Truth Knowledge Belief

Universal

No Debate

Effect

Social

Converge on debate

Cause

Personal

Diverge on debate

Cause

10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)


Myths

• “Heavier Than Air Flying Machines are Impossible”, Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1903

• “There is a World Market for maybe five Computers”, Thomas Watson, Chairman IBM, 1945

• “There is not the Slightest Indication {Nuclear}

Energy will ever be Obtainable,” Albert Einstein


What’s Wrong

• For every 100 Dollars We Spend on the Retired Workforce

• We Spend 10 Dollars on the Emerging Workforce

• We Spend 1 Dollar on the Existing Workforce


Jobs

Technology Based

Te

chn

olo

gy M

atu

rity

High

Low

High Low

Nanotech

Biotech

Infotech (HPC)

electronics

software

Small talent pool


1st Perspective

• Knowledge is a New Kind of Asset– The foundation of industrialized economy is shifting from natural

resources to intellectual assets (Hansen 99) (Davis 98)

– Knowledge assets are viewed as factors of production that may be more important than traditional resources of capital, labor and land. (Davis 98)

– Converging technologies and rapid innovations can transform markets Overnight . Administrative systems no longer provide the underpinnings of value creation. (Teece 98)

– Reward goes to those who are good a sensing and seizing opportunities. Dynamic capabilities are most likely to be resident in firms that are highly entrepreneurial. (Teece 98)


2nd Perspective• Entrepreneurship Super Normal Wealth Creator

– Business Environments Have Become Hypercompetitive because of the High Magnitude and Velocity of Interfirm Rivalries (D’Aveni, 94)

– Innovations in Products, Services, Business Processes, and Organizational Designs are Creating Dramatic Discontinuities in Product- Market Spaces and Disrupting the Traditional Approaches to Competitive Strategies and Business Conduct (Christensen, 97)

– In the Short Run, Entrepreneurial Firms Reaps Supernormal Returns (Create Wealth) as Established Incumbents and Rivals Seek to Understand the Competitive Disruptions in their Market Space.(Christensen 97)

– Thus Competition Occurs in the Form of a Series of Market Disruption Moves by New Entrants or Entrepreneurial Firms and Efforts by Incumbents and Rivals to Shape Their Response Actions (Young et al 96)


3rd Perspective• Entrepreneurial Firms Represent a New Online Community• Network computing, supported by advanced communications infrastructure, can

facilitate collaborative entrepreneuralism (Teece 98)• Successful business models set themselves apart in their communication design

leading to a deconstruction of traditional value chains and the emergence of value Webs. (Lechner 01)

• The most critical factor for a venture business success is how to implement and commercialize lab-based technology/knowledge/ideas into actual products and/or services (Sung 01)

• Entrepreneurial firms use knowledge to reshape clusters of assets in distinctive and unique combinations to serve ever changing customer needs. (Teece 98)

• The key sources of wealth creation at the dawn of the new millennium will lie with new enterprise formation. (Teece 98)


Typical Waterfall modelSix Stages

basic research, development research, product and process ideas, prototype, production, diffusion

CriticismsToo much focus on the solution “push” basic research not the only initiator stagerelationship between research and commercialization is too complex to be linearUsers are the key “pull” to the problems and markets

Traditional Entrepreneurship

Sung


2001 study of startup companies across: Software telecom (35%), Bio-med (19%), Computers (16%), and Semi-conductors (10.8%) Most innovation at application stage (55%), development ( 22%), research (12%) production (9%)Age: Linear older ( 35-45), non linear (25-35)Education: Linear more (28%P,42%M,30%B), Non Linear (7.5%P, 22%M,67%B)Experience: Linear narrower (59% research, 35% commerce), Nonlinear (37% research, 29% commerce, 17% education)Both groups agreed on success factors: business plan, leadership, technical skills, management skills, and location

New Non-Linear Model


Moore’s Law One Decade Left



California Council on Science and Technology 2004


Nanotechnology Timeline

California Council on Science and Technology 2004


Two Basic Methods

• Nanofabrication – Nanoscale Engineering

– Precise Sculpting or Building of Enhanced and New Materials

– Man Made Tools of processes, products or structures

• Self Assembly– Atoms and Molecules Growing Structures

– Nanotubes


New Materials *

• Before Nano we took the materials the earth provided (wood, stone, ore) and found creative applications

• Now we can manage the composition and combination of atoms, to form new stronger lighter metals, more flexible ceramics, more conductive plastics

• *The Next Big Thing is Really Small, Jack Uldrich and Deb Newberry (2003)


Expect to See

• Materials as strong as diamonds and lighter than aluminum

• Composites that act as heat conductors, shields from radiation, provides wireless communication and converts heat into electricity

• Nanosensors and energy sources to make materials self repairing (cars, bridges, buildings, clothes)

• Solar collecting materials that can be “painted on” to collect, store and apply energy (room light cell phones, buildings, wearable computer)


Elements of Strategy

Energy Electronics Medicine

Early stage Development

Infrastructure

Federal Funding


Price per Megabyte

1988 $ 11.00 per Megabyte

Today $ 0.01 per Megabyte

IBM Millipede (2 years)

$ 0.00001 per Megabyte

Nantero/Zettacore (4 years)

$ 0.00000001 per Megabyte

Hewlett Packard (6 years)

$ 0.00000000001 per Megabyte

Source: Jack Uldrich, “The Next Big Thing is Really Small”


High Performance Computing (HPC)

• Gigaflop – One Billion Floating Point Operations per Second

• Teraflop – One Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second

• Petaflop- One Thousand Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second


HPC and Next Generation Biology

• Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions

• This computation would take three years on a PetaFLOP system or

• Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries.


• Simulating the activity of a single protein, taking into account each atom in the protein,

• Would take months using a PetaFLOPS-class computer

HPC and Next Generation Biology


0 2

9 28

Computing SynergyPossibility for creating N(2(N-1)-1) value



Media Bandwidth

DSL/ Cable

IEEE 1394 / Firewire

Gigabit Ethernet

LASER / Fast Ethernet

10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet

Microwave

G2 Wireless

G3 / Wireless LAN

Async. Trans. Mode (ATM)

G1 Wireless

10Gig Ethernet

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Mu

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10^10

10^9

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10^7

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Exponential EconomyAn increasing attribute of our knowledge age


Nanotechnology Role in the Future

Source: Neville I. Marzwell, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory


Future Needs



High Impact Application• • Advanced Materials• – High strength-to-weight composites for vehicle primary structures and habitats• – Hydrogen resistant nanostructured materials for cryotanks• – High thermal conductivity materials for heat sinks, heat pipes, and radiators• – High temperature materials for propulsion systems and thermal protection systems• – High electrical conductivity materials for wiring• – Self-healing materials for repairing impact damage and wire insulation• – Space-durable materials resistant to ultraviolet and particle radiation• – Self-assembling materials for in-space fabrication• • Power• – High energy density batteries and fuel cells• – High efficiency photovoltaic cells• • Sensing• – Bio-chemical sensors for monitoring environmental contaminants in crew habitats• – Bio-chemical sensors for detecting the signatures of life on other planets• – Chemical systems for identifying, processing, and utilizing planetary resources• • Integral Health Management• – Systems that incorporate integral sensors and processors for fault detection and diagnosis• • High Performance Computing• – Fault-tolerant reconfigurable processors, micro-controllers, and storage devices• • Extreme Environment Electronics• – Microelectronic devices that can operate reliably in extreme temperature and radiation environments



High Performance Grid Computing

Technology Transfer Center Bio, Nano, Info The Keys to California's Future The Economic Development...

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