National Benefits of Methane and Black Carbon ReductionSCIENCE VOL 335 pg. 188 13 JANUARY 2012

Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and

Food Security

Can New Technology Save our Environment?

5. Technology and Policies are available.

Paul H. Carr, Ph. D. www.MirrorOfNature.org Photo, Lake Swanzey, NH

1. Nature’s beauty versus its utility. 2.Can new technology save us in time? Limits to Growth. Food Crash.

3. Why be concerned about Global Warming? Weather Extremes. 4. Data supporting anthropogenic global warming.

5. Technology and policies are available to save us.

CAN NEW TECHNOLOGY SAVE OUR ENVIRONMENT?

WILL TECHNOLOGY SAVE US IN TIME ?

TECHNOLOGY DOES NOT DEPLOY ITSELF!

POLICY DECISION IS UP TO US.

OUTLINE: POLICY INFLUENCERS1. Wall Street Journal - Is climate science settled?

2. Peer-reviewed Climate Science Articles- 99% settled.

3. Forbes – Is carbon-free energy available?

4. Nashua Telegraph – What about China’s coal burning?

5. Risky Business Report - Economics of Global Warming. by Bloomberg, Paulsen, & Steyer

6. Pope Francis’ Moral Responsibility to bequeath a habitable planet to future generations.

GUIDING PRINCIPLES

“There is a plethora of information but a paucity of wisdom.”

“Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.”

MIT Prof Jay Forrester, Complex Systems.

“Where there is no vision, the people perish.” Proverbs, 29:18

1. Climate Science Is Not SettledWe are very far from the knowledge needed to make good climate policy, writes leading scientist Steven E. Koonin

Wall Street Journal. Sept 19, 2014.http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/climate-science-is-not-settled-1411143565-lMyQjAxMTA0NjIwMzgyMjM5Wj?tesla=y

“The crucial scientific question for policy isn't whether the climate is changing. That is a settled matter: The climate has always changed and always will. Nor is the crucial question whether humans are influencing the climate. That is no hoax.”

Koonin then gave examples of the difficulty that climate models have in predicting exact results. He does not mention that the history of higher CO2 levels in the past give us an indication of what will happen when we reach them again in the near future.

• Melting Greenland• Melting Antarctica• Mountain Glaciers• Thermal expansion

3. Global temperatures have risen since 1960, but rate of sea level rise has be greater.

EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036 “Faux Pause” by M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014

Faux Pause

7

Aerosol Pause

Probability plotted versus Temperature Increase for C02 doubling. 2.6 C most probable. (Chris Hope, U Cambridge)

Cost of mitigation= $162 trillion Cost of most probable damage = $314 trillion

• Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm by 2100.

• Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450 ppm.

• Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm

-Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher.

Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS

9

CLIMATE SCIENCE IS 97% SETTLED97% of 2,500 UN climate scientists agree, humans cause global warming

61% say global warming is caused by human activity & natural patters.

To be classified as ‘rejecting,’ an article had to clearly and explicitly state that the CO2 theory of global warming is false or, as happened in a few cases, that some other process better explains the observed warming.” 24/13950 = 0.00172

2. PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES: CLIMATE SCIENCE IS GREATER THAN 99% SETTLED

Climate Science Is Not SettledWe are very far from the knowledge needed to make good climate policy, writes leading scientist Steven E. Koonin

Wall Street Journal. Sept 19, 2014.http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/climate-science-is-not-settled-1411143565-lMyQjAxMTA0NjIwMzgyMjM5Wj?tesla=y

Does the ending of this article below lead you to the same conclusion as the headline? “Our uncertain knowledge of future climates need not be an excuse for inaction. There is well-justified prudence in accelerating the development of low-emissions technologies and in cost-effective energy-efficiency measures.”

3. Climate Change Has Jumped the Sharkhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenhayward/2014/09/29/climate-change-has-jumped-the-shark/

Forbes, Sept. 29, 2014 by Steven F Haywood

“The prescribed method for preventing climate change is essentially replacing nearly all hydrocarbon energy, in the space of less than two generations. Climate orthodoxy calls for an 80 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, worldwide.”

Why is it important to do this? Is carbon-free energy

available?

“We have to figure out how to live without fossil fuels someday. Why not now, before we have destroyed the creation?”

Dr. Jim Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Space Science Institute and Professor at Columbia University, speaking at the NH State House, 2 Apr 2009.

By eliminating coal burning, the largest source of CO2 emissions, in the next 20 years, CO2 concentrations will decrease.

Coal phase-out by 2030 peak CO2 ~400-425 ppm, depending on oil/gas

Faster return below 350 ppm requires additional actions

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2009: 380 ppm2014: 400 ppm

19EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036

The “blue sky” 405 ppm curve: < 2C increase by 2100. ( M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014 )

Coal Burning Pollutes our Common Atmosphere for FreeEconomic benefit for electric utility companies and customers.The negative effects of pollution are shared by all.

Why Free Inhalers? Because COAL CARES. http://www.coalcares.org/index.html

Coal Cares™ is a brand-new initiative from Peabody Energy, the world's largest private-sector coal company, to reach out to American youngsters with asthma and to help them keep their heads high in the face of those who would treat them with less than full dignity. For kids who have no choice but to use an inhaler, Coal Cares™ lets them inhale with pride.Puff-Puff™ inhalers are available free to any family living within 200 miles of a coal plant, and each inhaler comes with a $10 coupon towards the cost of the asthma medication itself.

Public Service of NH gets 40% of its electricity from dirty coal burning, 21% from gas , 4% oil. (65% CO2 emitting) 16% from Seabrook nuclear, 13% hydro, 0.81% wind, 0.21% solar( 30%)

NIMBY ?

3. Continued. Climate Change Has Jumped the Sharkhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenhayward/2014/09/29/climate-change-has-jumped-the-shark/

Steven F Haywood . Is carbon-free energy available?

“But affordable large-scale, low- or non-carbon energy capable of replacing our current energy infrastructure simply doesn’t exist at present, and there isn’t much on the horizon. The developing world needs to triple its energy supply over the next generation if it is going to raise hundreds of millions out of abject poverty, and that means using abundant hydrocarbon energy, not expensive boutique energy popular with ever-preening rich Americans and Europeans. ” My response, Green energy has become affordable..“Abundant hydrocarbon energy” will be depleted in about a century .

“Expensive boutique energy?”

The cost of Solar PV electricity has come down to 8 cents per kWhr The average cost of electricity in the US is 12 cents/ kWhr, 17 cents in NH

Windspire Vertical-Axis, Grid-Tied

Wind Turbine

•Airfoils catch wind & spin the rotor

•Whisper quiet.

•Annual output 2,000+ kWh

•http://www.nelsonsmall.com/alternative_energy/windspire.asp

• By 2100, renewable energy could generate 100% of the U.S.’s electricity and more than 90% of its energy.

• Federal support of totaling $420 billion would be required till 2050 --- Less than the U.S. Farm Support Program

Innovative SOLAR UPDRAFT TOWERAug 2011, a contractor was selected to build two 200 MW Solar

Updraft Towers in Western Arizona. Lifetime expected to be 80 years. --Operates at night

SOLAR ENERGY FROM OUR STAR IS FOREVER (5 B YEARS)

Solar, Wind, Nuclear Needed

The increase in the supply of “abundant hydrocarbon energy” since 2008 will peak in 2018 and then decline.Solar, Wind, and Nuclear energy needed to meet the projected consumption.

SOLUTIONS TO GOBAL WARMING

Electric Cars powered by

• Windmills• Solar Cells• Nuclear Fission & Fusion Power Plants

Electric cars getting the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon are now available.

50 YEAR COST SAVINGS FROM Doubly-Green SOLAR = $263,000

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Natural gas is the cheapest energy source, but production predicted to peak in 2018 and then decline. Solar, wind, and nuclear are the best for centuries to come.

At present, the increase of carbon sources equals that of carbon-free.

The 1973 – 1990 increase was from new nuclear plants.

Shift Taxes From Income to Energy http://blogs.wsj.com/experts/2014/10/02/shift-taxes-from-income-to-energy/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=experts_energy Wall Street Journal by ROBERT RAPIER, October 2, 2014We should change the way we tax energy.The U.S. is one of the highest per-capita consumers of energy in the world. Yet there are countries with living standards as good as or better than we enjoy but at much lower energy consumption.

One way to accomplish this would be to shift taxes from income to energy in a way that doesn’t increase the overall tax burden.

Imagine a family whose income is $50,000 per year, pays $10,000 per year in income taxes, and spends $2,500 on gasoline and $2,500 on electricity. I would propose to shift their tax burden over time so that it ultimately ends up something like this: $5,000 in income taxes, $2,500 in additional gasoline taxes and $2,500 in additional taxes on fossil fuel-based electricity. I would exempt renewable sources of energy from these higher taxes.

Shift Taxes From Income to Energy http://blogs.wsj.com/experts/2014/10/02/shift-taxes-from-income-to-energy/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=experts_energy

Such a change in the tax code would have numerous benefits. It would lead to conservation of our remaining fossil fuel reserves, it would encourage mass transit, it would make alternative energy more competitive with fossil fuels without picking specific technology winners, and it would make the price of fossil fuels more reflective of the negative externalities that are not currently priced in (e.g., air pollution, military expenditures, etc.)

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9023#more

IMBALANCE: US ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS TWICE THAT OF OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIESCHINA TRYING TO CATCH UP TO INCREASE ITS GDP & STARDARD OF LIVING

OUTLINE: POLICY INFLUENCERS1. Wall Street Journal - Is climate science settled?

2. Peer-reviewed Climate Science Articles- 99% settled.

3. Forbes – Is carbon-free energy available? YES! DEPLOYED FASTER WITH A TAX ON CARBON.

4. Nashua Telegraph – What about China’s coal burning?

5. Risky Business Report - Economics of Global Warming. by Bloomberg, Paulsen, & Steyer

6. Pope Francis’ Moral Responsibility to bequeath a habitable planet to future generations.

More than 100,000 people march through midtown Manhattan as part of the People’s Climate March on Sunday in New York. John Minchillo/AP Images for AVAAZ

300,000 to 400,000 people march through midtown Manhattan as part of the People’s Climate March on Sunday, Sept 21, 2014 in New York. John Minchillo/AP Images for AVAAZ

“China is responsible for 27% of carbon emissions, more than any other country, and uses as much coal as the rest of the world.”

4. Nashua Telegraph, Sept. 24, 2014

The CO2 per capita of the US is the highest of highly populated counties & 3.4 times that of China. France at 5.9 is the lowest of developed, high standard of living countries. Why?

France gets 80% of its electricity from nuclear reactors.

Proportional to GDP per Capita

China Carbon Debut Defies Emission DoubtersBy Bloomberg News - Oct 12, 2012 5:09 AM ET

CAP AND TRADE CARBON

China’s first steps to build what is destined to be the world’s second-biggest emissions market are boosting the prospects for fledgling programs from Australia to California. Four cement makers in China, the world’s biggest emitter, bought 1.3 million pollution permits for 60 yuan ($9.55) a metric ton last month in Guangdong. The province plans the largest of seven pilot programs for a proposed national market within three years. Exchanges will trade permits to emit an estimated 1 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases a year by 2015, close to half the volume in the European Union system.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-12/china-carbon-debut-defies-emission-doubters-energy-markets.html

5. CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOW A BUSINESS STORY RISKY BUSINESS REPORT

RiskyBusiness.org is co-chaired by titans of American business and former government officials, including Michael Bloomberg, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and hedge-fund billionaire Tom Steyer.

The Risky Business report talked relatively little about science and more about what this whole threat is going to cost us. With its emphasis on the economic impact of climate change, it broke down each region and endangered economic sectors to assess the looming damage. And with this shift in focus — from the physics of climate change to its financial consequences — came a subtle yet perhaps significant change in media coverage.

The Coming Climate Crash:Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 RecessionBy HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush.Co-Author of www.RiskyBusiness.org JUNE 21, 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-2008-recession.html

“We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked.

A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs as we and other nations develop new energy products and infrastructure.

Climate change is the challenge of our time. We’ve seen and felt the costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.”

George Shultz, Co-Author Risky Business

THOMAS W. AND SUSAN B. FORD DISTINGUISHED FELLOW AT THE HOOVER INSTITUTION; FORMER US SECRETARY OF STATE; FORMER US SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY; FORMER US SECRETARY OF LABOR; FORMER DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT & BUDGET; FORMER PRESIDENT, BECHTEL GROUP

“The risks we take if the climate changes need to be identified carefully. We have done that here, in the spirit of creating an insurance policy. I support steps in that spirit, such as sustained support for and investments in innovation and resilience that put us in the best position to be prepared for all possible outcomes.”— George Shultz

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6. The Pope tackles sustainabilityMarcia McNuttMarcia McNutt Editor-in-Chief Science journals http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6203/1429.full 19 September 2014 Pope Francis

Pope Francis convened a Joint Workshop of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences on sustainability in May 2014. The Vatican has articulated some of its strongest environmental statements to date, calling for all of us to take personal responsibility and redirect our relationship with nature to ensure the future habitability and sustainability of this planet

The problems are: depletion of nonrenewable fossil fuel resources, loss of ecosystem services, and risks from changing climate.

What the Vatican uniquely contributes is the rationale for taking action: because it is our moral responsibility to bequeath a habitable planet to future generations.

Conservation, efficiency, & a more vegetarian diet can reduce our use of fossil fuels. Nature is the capital on which capitalism is based. In the long-term, our world’s economy will be constrained by ecology. There are indeed Limits to Growth.

Margaret Mead, Anthropologist (1901-1978)

Star Island IRAS Speaker 1969

“Never doubt that a group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world.

Indeed it is the only thing that ever has.”

CHALLENGE

TECHNOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE TO SOLVE OUR POPULATION & EVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

CAN WE DEPLOY THEM IN TIME TO MINIMIZE HUMAN SUFFERING?When asked if we have enough time to prevent catastrophe, Donella Meadows

always said that we have exactly enough time -- starting now.

• CONSERVE, INVEST IN SOLAR CELLS ($0.10/KWHR) - ELECTRIC CARS, 100 MILES/GAL

• SUPPORT CUTTING INCOME TAXES AND ADDITIONAL TAXES ON FOSSIL ENERGY.

• ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO VOTE FOR THE ABOVE.

SUMMARY: POLICY INFLUENCERS1. Wall Street Journal - Is climate science settled?

2. Peer-reviewed Climate Science Articles- 99% settled.

3. Forbes – Is carbon-free energy available? YES! DEPLOYED FASTER WITH A TAX ON CARBON.

4. Nashua Telegraph – What about China’s coal burning?

5. Risky Business Report - Economics of Global Warming. by Bloomberg, Paulsen, & Steyer

6. Pope Francis’ Moral Responsibility to bequeath a habitable planet to future generations.

CAN NEW TECHNOLOGY SAVE OUR ENVIRONOMENT?

There is a plethora of information but a paucity of wisdom.

“Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.”

MIT Prof Jay Forrester, Complex Systems.

“Where there is no vision, the people perish.” Proverbs, 29:18