Technical tips (egypt) egx30 - feb 21, 2012

JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE

TECHNICAL TIPS (EGYPT) Tuesday, February 21, 2012

1

Should History Repeats Itself, Then Don’t

Expect More Than A Healthy Correction Move

It’s all about recurring patterns. We’re looking for

similarities between 2009/ 2012 bottoms and it’s just

fascinated seeing how history repeats itself over and

over again.

Pure Price Analysis: 1- The index thrust violently taking out upper re-

sistance levels. 2– It’s well over the 50– and 200-day

EMAs, (waiting for a golden-crossover signal). 3– Re-

traced more than 61.8% of the falling red channel, giv-

ing a high probable signal that the current up-leg isn't ,

by any means, just a correction, but rather a first leg of

a bull market. 4– At current pace, Just a healthy cor-

rection may take place

RSI & MACD: (Aren’t perfect?!) 1– see the magnificent thrust after the up-breakout

over both triangles in RSI. 2– see how the RSI vaulted

just to the Bull Resistance Line as it did in 2009 thrust

move. 3– Taking out a dotted brown rising line in

May, 2009 was an early signal of June/July 2009 cor-

rection move, so as the RSI descended below its short-

term dotted rising line, we expect a beginning of a

healthy correction phase. 4– As we were expecting

before, a decisive up-breakout over the MACD falling

channel put the last nail in bear market coffin. 5– The

MACD currently faces an important resistance zone

and a decline to, or just slightly below, the zero line

may take place in the near future.

EGX30 RIC: .EGX30

THEN WHAT? Yes, we expect a correction, but actually we don’t expect seeing the 2011 lowest low

again. Expect the index to trade lower or laterally between 4,4470 and 4,770. Expect the RSI and

MACD to go to their lower support. Meanwhile, it’s a great opportunity to continue Accumulating

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TECHNICAL TIPS (EGYPT) Tuesday, February 21, 2012

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