Technical Briefing April V6 - Nalcor Energy · 11 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000...
Transcript of Technical Briefing April V6 - Nalcor Energy · 11 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000...
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Lower Churchill ProjectTechnical Briefing April 4, 2011
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Presentation Outline1. Provincial Energy Plan
2. NL Supply
a) Demand Analysis for Capacity and Energy
b) Supply Alternatives Analysis
c) NL Supply Conclusions
d) Electricity Rates
3. Surplus Power
a) Phase 1 – Muskrat Falls
b) Phase 2 - Gull Island
4. Project Financing
5. Summary
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Provincial Energy Plan
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Provincial Energy Plan
• Long term focus - 2041
• Energy Warehouse
• Non-renewables to
renewables
• Creation of Nalcor
• Opportunity to get it
right
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NL Energy Warehouse
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Island Demand Analysis for
Capacity and Energy
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Demand Forecasting ProcessWhat drives demand
• Rigourous demand forecast completed annually
• Domestic
– Driven by economic growth and electric heated homes.
– 86% of new homes have electric space heating: conversions from oil as oil
prices rise
– On average, 50% of home electricity costs and usage are from electric heat
– Domestic demand has grown steadily
• Industrial
– Vale Inco smelter, average 85MW (0.73 TWh annually) at full production
• AB Stephenville (2005) and GFW (2008) meant a 5-6 year delay – mill
closures accounted for in forecast
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Historical Load and Forecast Demand
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0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
GW
h
Island Interconnected Load
Historical Forecast
Population decline 12%
Vale Inco 730 GWh
Mill shutdowns
1970-2010CAGR*: 2.3%
2010-2067CAGR: 0.8%
*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
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Island Requirements
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Island Demand, MW
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Island Energy, GWh
CAGR:
•2010 – 2041: 1.1%
•2010 – 2067: 0.8%
Assumptions:
•Single newsprint mill
•Single oil refinery
•Nickel processing facility
startup late 2011, reaching
full production in 2014
•Duck Pond Mine continues
in operation until 2013
•Hebron developed
•Economic forecasts
provided by Department of
Finance (Population,
housing starts, GDP, etc.)
•Loss of Load Hours no more
than 2.8 hours annually
*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
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Capacity/Energy Deficit – Forecast
Year
Island Load Forecast Existing System
LOLH
(hr/year)
(limit: 2.8)
Energy Balance
(GWh)
Maximum
Demand (MW)
Firm Energy
(GWh)
Installed Net
Capacity (MW)
Firm Capability
(GWh)
HVdc
Link/Isolated
Island
HVdc
Link/Isolated
Island
2010 1,519 7,585 1,958 8,953 0.15 1,368
2011 1,538 7,709 1,958 8,953 0.22 1,244
2012 1,571 7,849 1,958 8,953 0.41 1,104
2013 1,601 8,211 1,958 8,953 0.84 742
2014 1,666 8,485 1,958 8,953 2.52 468
2015 1,683 8,606 1,958 8,953 3.41 347
2016 1,695 8,623 1,958 8,953 3.91 330
2017 1,704 8,663 1,958 8,953 4.55 290
2018 1,714 8,732 1,958 8,953 5.38 221
2019 1,729 8,803 1,958 8,953 6.70 150
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066
GW
h
Island Electricity Requirements By Source
Island Hydro & NUGs Thermal/Other Other Supply2010 PLF
Island Hydro and Non Utility Purchases
Labrador or Other Supply
2041
Island Supply Requirements (2010 – 2067)
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Supply Alternatives Analysis
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Option Evaluation Criteria
• Security of supply and reliability
• Cost to ratepayers
• Environment
• Risk and uncertainty
• Financial viability of non-regulated elements
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Options for Meeting Island Supply
Isolated Island
LCP Options
Other
Muskrat Falls
first
Gull Island first
+Conservation
& Demand
Management
Projections
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Assumptions
Nalcor corporate assumptions used in the evaluation
Parameter Assumption
Regional North American
Electricity prices
• PIRA Energy Group
World Oil prices • PIRA Energy Group
Environmental costs • Island Isolated Case: ESP and scrubbers included in capital costs
• No impact assumed for uncertain costs associated with Federal
Atmospheric Emission regulations or GHG; such costs would be
unfavourable to the Isolated Island case
Cost escalation and
inflation
• 2% CPI
• Generation and transmission O&M 2.5%
• Capital costs 2% - 3%
Long run regulated
financial assumptions
• Debt cost 7.4%
• Equity cost 10.0%
• Debt:Equity ratio: 75:25
• WACC/discount rate: 8%
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Isolated Island – Numerous Projects
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Wind
25 MW
(power
purchase)
Island
Pond
36 MW
($199M)
Portland
Creek
23 MW
($111M)
Round
Pond
18 MW
($185M)
CCGT
170 MW
($282M)
CT
50 MW
($91M)
CT
50 MW
($97M)
Holyrood upgrades,
ESP/scrubbers, low NOx burners
($582M)
Wind
renewal
50 MW
($189M)
Post 2030 –
Holyrood
replacement;
additional
thermal
($1,504M)
Total capex $3.2 billion
before adding fuel expense
& sustaining capital
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$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Isolated Island Revenue Requirements$millions nominal
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Isolated Island Key Indicators
Economic Indicators ($ millions)
•CPW of revenue requirement: $12,272
•Capex de-escalated to 2010$: $8,074
Key Risks:
•Fuel cost escalation/volatility
•Environmental costs
Reliability Considerations:
•No interconnection to North American
grid
Rate of return on non-regulated
elements:
•N/A - all regulated assets
Holyrood
replacement
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LCP – Muskrat Falls First
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
HVDC
Island
Link
900 MW
LCP
Muskrat
Falls
824 MW
CT
50 MW
Holyrood
standby
Holyrood shut
down
Post 2030 –
thermal units for
reliability
support only
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LCP – Muskrat Falls First
MF is the least cost alternative for ratepayers even if the
unutilized water is spilled and not monetized.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066
GW
hIsland - Labrador Electricity Supply Balance
Muskrat Supply to Island Market Activity and/or Spillage2010 PLF
Surplus for Market Activities and/or Spillage
Muskrat Falls Supply for the Island
CF Supply
2041
The price
paid by the
Island
ratepayers is
based on
LCP cost
assuming a
return similar
to a
regulated
utility
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$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Revenue Requirements: Isolated Island
versus LCP Muskrat$millions nominal
Island Isolated LCP Muskrat
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LCP – Muskrat Falls First Key Indicators
Economic Indicators ($ millions)
•CPW of revenue requirement: $10,114
•Lower CPW vs Isolated Island: $2,158
•Capex de-escalated to 2010$: $6,582
Key Risks:
•Environmental approval/schedule
•Capital cost control
Reliability Considerations:
•Interconnected to the North American
grid via Churchill Falls
Rate of return on non-regulated
elements:
•8.4% IRR assuming no monetization of
spill
Long term
superior value
$2.2B
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NL Supply Conclusions
• Domestic supply requirements need to be addressed
– Planning decisions cannot be deferred
• Muskrat Falls (824 MW) is the least-cost option for
domestic supply
– Even assuming no value obtained for surplus MF power
• Muskrat Falls translates to lower and stable rates for
customers
• Muskrat Falls surplus power available for domestic
use and export sales
• Gull Island (2250 MW) is the next step
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Electricity Rates
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Muskrat Falls – Stable Electricity Rates
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Nalcor/Emera Deal for Surplus Power
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Phase 1 – Muskrat Falls, Labrador
Island Link and Maritime Link
Maritime Transmission Link • 500 MW capacity
• Includes 180 km undersea link from Cape Ray NL
to Cape Breton NS
• Construction start 2013; in-service late 2016
• Construction cost $1.2 billion
• Ownership 100% Emera
Muskrat Falls Generation• 824 Megawatt hydro-electric facility
• Two dams, one powerhouse
• 60 km reservoir
• Construction start 2011; in-service late 2016
• Construction cost $2.9 billion
• Ownership 100% Nalcor
Labrador-Island Transmission Link• 900 MW capacity
• Muskrat Falls to St. John’s area
• 1,100 km, including 30 km under Strait of Belle Isle
• Construction start 2012; in-service late 2016
• Construction cost $2.1 billion
• Ownership 71% Nalcor, 29% Emera
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Phase 2 – Gull Island
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Phase 2 – Gull Island
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Project Financing
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Overview
• Lender Considerations
• Project Business Case
• Federal Loan Guarantee
• Project Cash Flows
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Lender Considerations
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Credit-worthy
revenue stream for
debt service
Investment-grade
non-guaranteed
project debt
capacity
Financial
Market
Conditions
Achievement of In-Service
Clear line of
sight to
revenues
Revenue
Certainty
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Project Business Case
• Mature, proven technology
• Utility level return on capital of over 9%
• High quality revenue stream for debt service
– Primary customer for both MF and LIL is NL Hydro, regulated utility with
strong credit rating
– Power and transmission contract lengths that contemplate term of debt
financing
• Investment grade project - prudent leverage that considers
appropriate debt service coverage
• Robust cost/schedule estimates
• Disciplined risk management program
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Federal Loan Guarantee
• Would further enhance an already sound business case,
with the economic benefit of lower debt costs being
passed on to NL and NS customers
• The capital structure for Muskrat Falls may be adjusted if
federal loan guarantees are provided
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Muskrat Falls Cash Flow
• MF provides lenders with sufficient cash flow to service the debt
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LIL Cash Flow
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• LIL provides lenders with sufficient cash flow to service the debt
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MF + LIL Cash Flow
• Dividends from both MF and LIL are available to service any Provincial debt borrowings made to provide equity
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MF + LIL Available Cash Flow to Province
• Dividends from both MF and LIL are more than sufficient to service the Provincial debt borrowings
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Summary
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• NL requires new generation to meet load growth
• Muskrat Falls and Transmission Link to the Island is best solution
– Most economic and least-cost option
– 500MW Holyrood thermal plant coming off-line and thermal replacement avoided
– Enhances system reliability and security of supply with interconnection
– Rate stability for customers over long term
– Generates a positive rate of return for province
• Electricity demand met up to 2041+
• Generation >98% GHG free
• Robust business case
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Summary