1

Targeting Energy

Efficiency To

Realize Network

Deferrals

Rebecca Craft

Director

Energy Efficiency and

Demand Management

Con Edison

Agenda

• Con Edison System

• Forecasting and

Planning

• Targeted Demand Side

Management

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3

The Electric System - Restructured

Con Edison NYISO Gen

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Con Edison – The Landscape

• 660 sq. mile service territory

• 133,000 miles of T&D cable (over 96,000 miles are underground)

• 13,825 people/sq. mile

• 20 MW/sq. mile but 235MW/sq. mile in NYC

• 3.3 million electric, 1.1 million gas, and 1,700 steam accounts; serve about 9.3 million people

• Over 650,000,000 sq. ft. of office space

• 462,000 businesses

• 900,000 residential buildings

• 58 billion kWh of electric consumption

• 70,000 people/sq. mile

• 2000 MW/sq. mile

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5

Electric Consumption by Customer Class –

CECONY vs. U.S.

Commercial Industrial Residential

38% 35%

27%

U.S. CECONY

Source: Bernstein Research, Consolidated Edison Company of New York

Commercial Industrial Residential

28%

70%

2%

Lo

ad

(M

W)

Hours

2012 System Load Duration Curve

3,111

4,001

5,001

6,001

7,001

8,001

9,001

10,001

11,001

12,001

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

12,836

25

817

1,704

2,094

2,482

707

468

330

134

23

Load Range (MW) Number of Hours

8,784 Hours - Leap Year

High peak demand and low asset

utilization = inefficient system

23 hours (or 0.3% of the

year) comprised the top

800 MW

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Forecasting and Planning

“Planning for Efficiency”, Public Utilities Fortnightly, August 2011

http://www.fortnightly.com/uploads/08012011_PlanforEff.pdf

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Long-Term Impact of DSM = lower demand

growth = lower costs = lower bills

Syste

m P

eak D

em

and

(M

W)

DSM

2012 2021

*growth = CAGR

Peak Forecast without DSM Peak Forecast with DSM

Peak Forecasting Process

Top-Down Bottom-Up

Weather

Adjustment

Demand Growth/Decline

Actual Peak

-Demand

Management

+ Other Adjustments

=

Final Peak Demand Forecast 9

New York City Westchester

> 1.4%

> 0.7% & < 1.4%

< 0.4%

Five-Year Compounded

Growth Rates

Growth Forecasts for Peak Demand for 82

CECONY Electric Networks

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Forecasting Energy Efficiency and

Demand Management Programs

Forecast Magnitude and Delivery Date of DSM Program Impact

Allocate Annual Energy Reduction to Network Areas

Perform Conversion to Peak Demand Impact

305MW of Peak Demand System Reductions thru 2017

Quantify Monthly Energy Reduction Impact for Each Program

Allocate Monthly Impact to Customer Rate Classes

1,596 GWhs of Incremental Annual Energy Reductions over 2012 Base Year by end of 2017

• We forecast the impact of energy efficiency and demand management programs

to better assess future revenue requirements and capital planning needs.

• Programs in the forecast include: Con Edison EEPS, NYSERDA EEPS, NYPA

DSM, Con Edison Targeted DSM, and mandatory Con Edison Demand Response

Programs; also looking at DG

Forecast Magnitude and Delivery Date of DSM Program Impact

Forecasting Process for DSM Impact on Peak Demand

Forecasting Process for DSM Impact on Revenue and Volume

To Revenue and Volume

Forecasting

To Demand Forecasting

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Planning Process – Using DSM to defer

capital projects involves many internal

stakeholders

Potential DSM Projects

Area Substation Planning

Central Engineering

Transmission Planning

Regional Distribution Planning

Peak Load Forecast

Demand Side Management

(EE + DR)

Distributed Generation

Peak Load Forecast w/ DSM & DG

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Demand Management Included Electric

System Planning

Permanent demand reduction by 2018 can defer capital

investment

240

245

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

MW

Capacity Load no DSM Load with DSM Load with DSM+

Build needed 2016 Build deferred to 2018

Build deferred to 2020

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Targeted Demand Side

Management

“Con Edison’s Targeted Demand Side Management Program: Replacing Distribution Infrastructure with Load Reduction”, ACEEE 2010

http://eec.ucdavis.edu/ACEEE/2010/data/papers/2059.pdf

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Targeted DSM: How It Works

Area Station

Firm contract MW reductions for A/S load

relief

Distribution

kW scale reductions for secondary load relief

EE

EE

DR

EE DR

DG

DG

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Targeted Steam A/C Program

• Incentives available in 15

networks

– Install new steam chillers in

lieu of electric

– Replace electric chillers with

steam

• All steam chiller plants and

hybrid steam-electric

• Steam turbine and double

stage absorption

Eligible networks and

map subject to

change annually

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Forecast

DG is Playing a Greater Role in Planning

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2020

Solar

2015 2030 2025 2010

Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW)

PlaNYC Goal

800 MW

CHP 2007:

PlaNYC

Launch

NYSERDA Downstate PV Funding, NY-Sun

NYSERDA CHP Market Acceleration Program

NYC Solar PV Property Tax Abatement

CHP until 2018 is a

result of actual pipeline

projects going into

service, and growth

thereafter based on

historic adoption rates.

PV growth assumes

NY-Sun funding until

2020

NYCEEC Financing Available

Source: Con Edison, NYC Mayor’s Office

Greenbank

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NYSERDA is offering a 10% bonus

incentive in “Targeted Zones”

CHP project transparency and telemetry will allow for performance monitoring

for potential inclusion in Company DG forecasting and system planning