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TargeTed ViolenceA Statistical and Tactical Analysis of Assassinations, Contract Killings, and Kidnappings

Glenn P. McGovern

2010 by Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 2010 by Taylor and Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 International Standard Book Number: 978-1-4398-2512-9 (Hardback) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint. Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright.com (http:// www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress CataloginginPublication Data McGovern, Glenn. Targeted violence : a statistical and tactical analysis of assassinations, contract killings, and kidnappings / Glenn McGovern. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-4398-2512-9 1. Assassination. 2. Murder for hire. 3. Kidnapping. 4. Victimology. I. Title. HV6278.M39 2010 364.15--dc22 Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com 2009043219

2010 by Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

ContentsIntroduction About the Author 1 Chronology of Attacks 2 Global statisticsAttacks against Vehicle-Borne Victims Attacks against Pedestrian targets european Region Methods of Attack Italy France (including Corsica) spain United Kingdom (including scotland and northern Ireland) Greece Germany other Countries Locations of Attack Italy France (including Corsica) spain United Kingdom Greece Germany other Countries Victims of Attack Italy France spain United Kingdom Greece Germany other Countries the Adversaries Italy France spain

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Greece United Kingdom Germany other Countries north America Methods of Attack United states Mexico Canada Caribbean Islands Locations of Attack United states Mexico Canada and the Caribbean Islands Victims of Attack United states Mexico Canada and Caribbean Islands the Adversaries United states Mexico Canada and Caribbean Islands Central/south America Methods of Attack Colombia Brazil Guatemala Argentina other Countries Locations of Attack Colombia Brazil Guatemala Argentina other Countries Victims of Attack Colombia Brazil Guatemala Argentina the Adversaries Colombia Brazil Guatemala Argentina vi

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2010 by Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

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Middle east Methods of Attack Lebanon turkey egypt Jordan Iran Israel Locations of Attack Lebanon turkey egypt Jordan Iran Israel Victims of Attack Lebanon turkey egypt Jordan Iran Israel the Adversaries Lebanon turkey egypt Jordan Iran Israel Russia and the Republics Methods of Attack Russia Republic of Dagestan tajikistan Remaining Countries/Republics Locations of Attack Russia Republic of Dagestan tajikistan Remaining Countries/Republics Victims of Attack Russia Republic of Dagestan tajikistan Remaining Countries/Republics vii

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the Adversaries Russia Republic of Dagestan tajikistan and Remaining Countries/Republics south Asia Methods of Attack Pakistan sri Lanka India Afghanistan/Bangladesh Locations of Attack Pakistan sri Lanka India Victims of Attack Pakistan sri Lanka India the Adversaries Pakistan sri Lanka India Asia/Pacific Methods of Attack Philippines Japan Indonesia other Countries Locations of Attack Philippines Japan Indonesia other Countries Victims of Attack Philippines Japan Indonesia other Countries the Adversaries Philippines Japan Indonesia Africa Methods of Attack Algeria viii

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south Africa Locations of Attack Algeria south Africa other Countries Victims of Attack Algeria south Africa other Countries the Adversaries Algeria south Africa other Countries

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3 Attack MethodologyBooby trap success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Drive-by success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Protective Details Improvised explosive Device success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Protective Details Unusual IeD tactics Lone Gunman success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed Against Protective Details Kidnapping success Rate ix

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Location Most Likely Used At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Protective Details Masked Attacker Motorcycle Hit teams success Rate Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Protective Details Poison success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against types of Poison and Delivery Methods Ruse success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against types of Disguises/Ruses employed type of Attack Conducted in Conjunction with Ruse/Disguise snipers success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Protective Details edged Weapons success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Protective Details suicide Bombers success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective x

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Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Protective Detail suppressed Weapons the three- to Five-Gunmen Hit team success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Protective Details two-Gunmen Hit team success Rate Location Most Likely Used At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Protective Details Vehicle-Borne Improvised explosive Device success Rate Locations Most Likely employed At Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Protective Details Vehicle Intercept

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4 Attack LocationsAirport/Aircraft timing of Attack type of Attack success Rate Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Bar/Restaurant timing of Ambush type of Attack success Rate Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against entering/exiting a Vehicle Location of Ambush xi

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timing of Ambush type of Attack Protective Details Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed Against Frequented Locations timing of Ambush type of Attack success Rate Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed By Most Likely employed Against Hotels timing of Ambush type of Attack Global and Regional Perspective Most Likely employed Against Groups Responsible for the Attack In transit