TAMPA - ST PETERSBURGthemultifamily.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/...Riverview/Valrico $1,109 94%...

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TAMPA - ST PETERSBURG MULTIFAMILY RENTAL TRENDS SUPPLY/DEMAND EMPLOYMENT ANALYTICS JANUARY 2019

Transcript of TAMPA - ST PETERSBURGthemultifamily.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/...Riverview/Valrico $1,109 94%...

Page 1: TAMPA - ST PETERSBURGthemultifamily.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/...Riverview/Valrico $1,109 94% 1.1% Brooksville $696 96.5% -0.4% Upper St Petersburg $999 95.1% -1.9% GANDY/BALLAST

TAMPA - ST PETERSBURGMULTIFAMILY

RENTAL TRENDSSUPPLY/DEMANDEMPLOYMENT ANALYTICS

JANUARY 2019

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SUPPLY

RENTAL TRENDS

DEMAND

Employment Sector Current Share YOY Change

Leisure and Hospitality 11.7% 8,500 4.7%

Education and Health Services 15.5% 5,900 2.4%

Professional and Business Services 17.3% 5,400 2.0%

Mining, Logging and Construction 5.7% 4,500 5.2%

Manufacturing 5.5% 3,800 4.5%

Financial Activities 8.2% 2,700 2.1%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 19.8% 1,900 0.6%

Other Services 3.4% 1,500 2.9%

Information 1.6% -200 -0.8%

Government 11.4% -4,700 -2.5%

National RankingOut of 98 Markets 44Rent

Growth [-1] 49 EmploymentGrowth [-10] 32 Completions

[+11]

Inventory by Property Status# of Properties

930Completed

209,790 Units

32Under Construction

6,843 Units

27Planned

7,649 Units

122Prospective

26,403 Units

TAMPA - ST PETERSBURG MULTIFAMILY JANUARY 2019

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HIGHEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS LOWEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Bartow $1,053 95% 15.6%

Dade City $1,033 91.2% 11.8%

University Square $1,078 93.8% 6.4%

Gandy/Ballast Point $1,386 94% 6.3%

Town N' Country $1,076 93.3% 6.1%

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Rocky Creek $1,267 94.5% 1.0%

Downtown St Petersburg $1,353 95.8% 0.5%

Brooksville $696 96.5% -0.4%

Upper St Petersburg $1,074 95.5% -1.0%

Winter Haven $972 95.8% -1.5%

HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKET - BARTOW

SUBMARKETS YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH

Properties 4

Units 362

Average Rent/Unit $1,053

Effective YOY Chg 15.6%

RENTAL RATE CHANGE BY SUBMARKET JANUARY 2019

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LIFESTYLE APARTMENTS - YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH RENTERS-BY-NECESSITY APARTMENTS - YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH

HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - LIFESTYLE HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - RBN

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Gandy/Ballast Point $1,681 92.2% 6.5%

Palm Harbor/Tarpon Springs $1,289 95% 6.2%

Garver City $1,755 94.9% 5.9%

Clair-Mel City $1,388 94.6% 5.4%

Thontosassa $1,306 94.4% 5.2%

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Bartow $842 96.6% 7.9%

Safety Harbor $1,166 95.7% 7.3%

Carrollwood Village $1,086 96% 7.2%

University Square $968 93.8% 7.0%

Plant City $853 93.6% 6.8%

LOWEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - LIFESTYLE LOWEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - RBN

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Downtown St Petersburg $1,733 96.8% 0.1%

New Port Richey $1,100 96.8% -0.5%

Tampa Heights $1,837 98.1% -0.5%

Pinellas Park $1,421 95.2% -0.6%

Winter Haven $1,059 98.7% -4.2%

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Rocky Creek $1,118 94.2% 1.5%

Downtown St Petersburg $986 94.8% 1.2%

Riverview/Valrico $1,109 94% 1.1%

Brooksville $696 96.5% -0.4%

Upper St Petersburg $999 95.1% -1.9%

GANDY/BALLAST POINT BARTOW

Lifestyle RBN Overall

Properties 5 10 15

Units 1,415 2,095 3,510

Avg Rent/Unit $1,681 $1,187 $1,386

Effective YOY Chg 6.5% 6.4% 6.3%

RBN Lifestyle Overall

Properties 3 1 4

Units 206 156 362

Avg Rent/Unit $842 $1,331 $1,053

Effective YOY Chg 7.9% 22.8% 15.6%

RENTAL RATE CHANGE BY SUBMARKET AND ASSET QUALITY JANUARY 2019

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OVERALL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

PROJECTED COMPLETIONS AS % OF PRIOR INVENTORY - 12 MONTHS ENDING DECEMBER 2019Submarket Growth # Units

Downtown Tampa / Ybor City 33.7% 1,311

Brooksville 14.9% 94

Downtown St Petersburg 13.2% 1,163

Gandy/Ballast Point 12.9% 492

Davenport/Haines City 12.0% 326

Dunedin 9.2% 227

Land O'Lakes/Odessa 8.7% 348

Clearwater 7.9% 214

Gulfport/Lealman 7.2% 126

Hyde Park/Davis Island 6.5% 324

Rocky Creek 5.6% 505

+ 6 More Submarkets 805

Market Overall 2.7%5,935 Units

National RankingOut of 98 Markets

6,843 Units

30Lifestyle

6,070 Units

37Renters-by-Necessity

773 Units

29Overall [+2]

SUPPLY JANUARY 2019

TOP DEVELOPERS BY UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONLARGEST COMMUNITIES UNDER CONSTRUCTIONDeveloper # Units # Props

Related Group 1,164 3

Wheelock Street Capital 384 1

Bainbridge Companies 355 1

Arlington Properties 341 1

Sun Park Companny 326 1

ZOM 323 1

Altman Companies 314 1

RIDA Development 307 1

Gries Investment 300 1

Landmark Properties 214 1

Project Address # Units Developer

Manor Riverwalk 202 South Parker Street Tampa, FL 33606

400 Related Group

Newport 5001 Bridge Street Tampa, FL 33611

396 Related Group

Point at Starkey Ranch, The Gunn Hwy & State Road 54 Odessa, FL 33556

384 Wheelock Street Capital

Icon Central 801 Central Avenue St. Petersburg, FL 33701

368 Related Group

Bainbridge at Westshore Marina

5350 Bridge Street Tampa, FL 33611

355 Bainbridge Companies

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LIFESTYLE DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY RENTERS-BY-NECESSITY DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

PROJECTED RBN COMPLETIONS AS % OF INVENTORYPROJECTED LIFESTYLE COMPLETIONS AS % OF INVENTORY

Submarket Growth # Units

Downtown Tampa / Ybor City 47.0% 1,108

Gandy/Ballast Point 46.4% 492

Gulfport/Lealman 37.7% 126

Downtown St Petersburg 33.6% 1,163

Clearwater 29.3% 134

Davenport/Haines City 25.2% 326

Dunedin 17.3% 227

Tampa Heights 14.1% 52

Land O'Lakes/Odessa 10.0% 348

Rocky Creek 9.5% 505

New Port Richey 8.9% 223

+ 2 More Submarkets 538

Market Overall 5.9%5,242 Units

Submarket Growth # Units

Brooksville 14.9% 94

Downtown Tampa / Ybor City 13.3% 203

Spring Hill 6.7% 92

Clearwater 3.5% 80

Largo 2.8% 92

Lakeland Highlands 1.9% 132

Market Overall 0.5%693 Units

SUPPLY JANUARY 2019

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EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION BY INDUSTRY SECTOR

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TREND FOR TOTAL NON-FARM AND TWO LARGEST INDUSTRY SECTORS

EARNINGS GROWTH TREND VS NATIONAL

Employment National YOY Change 5-Year ChangeEmployment Sector Jobs % Share Rank Jobs Pct. Jobs Pct.

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 317K 19.8% 25 1.9K 0.6% 33.9K 12.0%

Professional and Business Services 277K 17.3% 23 5.4K 2.0% 49.2K 21.6%

Education and Health Services 248K 15.5% 26 5.9K 2.4% 30.6K 14.0%

Leisure and Hospitality 188K 11.7% 25 8.5K 4.7% 33.1K 21.4%

Government 183K 11.4% 32 -4.7K -2.5% -0.2K -0.1%

Financial Activities 131K 8.2% 19 2.7K 2.1% 18.2K 16.1%

Mining, Logging and Construction 91K 5.7% 23 4.5K 5.2% 21.0K 30.0%

Manufacturing 88K 5.5% 41 3.8K 4.5% 10.8K 14.0%

Other Services 54K 3.4% 28 1.5K 2.9% 4.9K 10.0%

Information 26K 1.6% 32 -0.2K -0.8% -1.2K -4.3%

Total Non-Farm 1603K 100.0% 25 29.3K 1.9% 200.3K 14.3%

EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS JANUARY 2019

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Prior 12 Months

36Sale Price

$142,213Average Price/Unit

10Sale Velocity

77Properties Sold

13Sale Volume [-1]

$2,594MMTotal Sales

National RankingOut of 98 Markets

MOST ACTIVE SUBMARKETS BY TRANSACTION VOLUME

SALE TRENDS

MOST ACTIVE BUYERS BY # PROPERTIES PURCHASED MOST ACTIVE SELLERS BY # PROPERTIES SOLD

Lifestyle RBN

# Properties 31 46

Total $MM $1,551 $1,044

Avg $/Unit $187,272 $104,762

Company # Units $MM

Blue Roc Premier Properties 3 780 $81.7

NorthEnd Equities 2 1,382 $165.2

TH Real Estate 2 643 $143.0

Independence Realty Trust 2 624 $90.0

LCN Management 2 512 $53.9

White Oak Partners 2 455 $74.3

Centennial Holding Company 2 437 $72.6

Arena Capital Holdings 2 291 $20.5

Company # Units $MM

Harbor Group International 4 1,273 $136.0

Mercury Investments 4 1,232 $169.7

Pollack Shores 3 1,006 $206.9

Equity Management Partners 3 539 $43.5

Axonic Properties 2 696 $73.2

IMT Capital 2 670 $116.9

Greider, David K. 2 284 $32.7

Insula Properties 2 272 $30.7

Submarket # Units $MM

Westchase 8 2,686 $503.3

Riverview/Valrico 12 2,886 $438.8

Rocky Creek 8 2,802 $412.3

Downtown St Petersburg 6 1,482 $386.5

Lakeland Highlands 12 2,882 $357.2

Brandon/Seffner 4 2,332 $281.8

Safety Harbor 4 1,524 $226.0

Gandy/Ballast Point 4 1,128 $206.0

University of South Florida 8 964 $204.8

Sunset Park/Bayside 2 1,378 $193.0

+ 25 More Submarkets 86 16,420 $1,978.8

Total 154 36,484 $5,188.5

$123,000,000982 UnitsBuyer: NorthEnd Equities

Sale Date: 01/22/2019

Reserve at Brandon

HIGHEST PRICED PREV. 3 MONTHS

TRANSACTION ACTIVITY JANUARY 2019

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COVERAGE

Yardi® Matrix reports on multi-family properties of 50+ units in size.

This report for the Tampa - St Petersburg metro area covers Counties: Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and Polk

Rental rate coverage is for Market Rate properties only. Fully Affordable properties are not included in our rental surveys and are not reported in rental rate averages.

GENERAL DEFINITIONS

Asset Class – refers to a generalized category of properties grouped by their Yardi® Matrix improvements rating

Lifestyle Asset Class – a grouping of all of the highest rated market rate properties A+, A, A- and B+

Renters-by-Necessity (RBN) Asset Class – a grouping of all of the lowest rated properties B, B-, C+, C, C- and D

Year-over-Year Change – percentage growth from last year, for several months or quarters in a time-series. This analysis will highlight an overall direction of movement for a metro.

An upward slope means an accelerating growth. A downward slope means a slowing growth. Above the line (zero) for increases, below the line for loss.

Rankings – this metro is ranked nationally among other Yardi Matrix reported metros based on a single measure. For details on any specific ranking, see section descriptions below

COMMONLY USED CALCULATIONS

DATA SOURCES

Rental Rates – are collected by Yardi® Matrix phone surveyors three times annually for 95%+ of property and unit configurations. Additionally, a representative sample of the market (between 10% and 20%) are surveyed monthly.

Occupancy Rates – are derived from U.S. Postal Service data and Yardi® Matrix phone surveys

Development Activity – information is tracked by Yardi® Matrix researchers. Construction projects are discovered through various publications and local government sources. Projects are tracked on a monthly basis. Completion dates and lease-up information are confirmed by phone calls to properties under construction.

Employment – data is sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Reported employment is generally two months behind the current date for this report.

Transaction Activity – information is tracked by Yardi® Matrix researchers. Sales are discovered through various publications and local government sources, and updates are made continuously.

Rent Growth Ranking – based on rent growth over the past year, current month.

Employment Growth Ranking – based on employment growth over the past year, latest employment month.

Completions Ranking – based on inventory growth over the past year, current month.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Calculations – total employment size (jobs) is expressed as a sum of employment in areas overlapping the reported market: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS

Industry Sectors – are defined by the NAICS Supersector designations. For more information visit: http://www.bls.gov/sae/saesuper.htm

Sector National Ranking – is based on the absolute size of the industry sector within this metro, when compared to the same industry in other metro areas nationally.

Earnings weekly vs hourly – differentiates hourly wage workers, from weekly salaried workers.

DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

Prospective Properties – announced construction projects, with no specific documents or government filings

Planned Properties – are in the planning stages of construction, with documents having been filed with the county or city

Under Construction Properties – have received permits for construction and broken ground.

Rankings – are based on the number of units currently under construction: Overall, Lifestyle and Renters-by-Necessity Asset Classifications

Projected Completions – Projected completions reported by Yardi® Matrix are limited to a year out and are based on properties currently under construction and their expected completion date.

Projected Completions as a % of Prior Inventory – This forward-looking metric uses projected unit completions to calculate a relative growth over the next year for a particular area. Submarkets with a total share of market inventory below 1% are assigned an N/A value, to avoid over-stating their significance in rankings and color-coded map displays.

Construction and Completion Counts – are reported based on property status as of the start of the month.

TRANSACTION ACTIVITY

Price – is expressed as Price/Unit as a standard measure. This is also used for national ranking

Velocity – is measured by the number of properties sold per year. This is also used for national ranking

Volume – measures the total amount of money spent in multi-family sale transactions in the prior year, expressed as millions of U.S. Dollars ($MM). This is also used for national ranking

METHODS AND DEFINITIONS JANUARY 2019

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