TAM DAY 2006 - Financial Overview
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Transcript of TAM DAY 2006 - Financial Overview
TAM DAY 2006Financial Overview
Cristina Betts
December 8th, 2006
2
Agenda
Breakfast
Strategic Overview
Coffee Break
Financial Overview
Lunch - MRO Overview
Regulatory Environment
Wrap up
8:00-8:30
8:30-10:00
10:00-10:30
10:30-12:00
12:00-13:00
13:00-14:00
14:00-14:30
-
Libano Barroso
-
Cristina Betts
Ruy Amparo
Josef Barat
Libano Barroso
3
TAM is a low cost company with better service at competitive prices
Low OperatingCosts
Low OperatingCosts
UndisputableBetter ServiceUndisputableBetter Service
CompetitivePrices
CompetitivePrices
Sustainable Strategyto Maintain Market
Leadershipand Profitability
4
19,2%21,8%
30,7%34,9% 33,0%
35,8%
43,5%47,0%
27,2%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jan-Set/06
Domestic Market Share (RPK’s)
Domestic Market Share (RPK’s) – 3Q06 Domestic Market Share (RPK’s) - Nov/06
Source: ANAC
GOL ; 36,7%
TAM ; 51,1%
Others; 4,8%
BRA; 4,0%
Varig; 3,4%
TAM ; 51,7%
GOL ; 35,3%
Others; 4,8%
Varig; 5,1%
BRA; 3,2%
Undisputed domestic market leader...
5
0,1%3,8%
13,9% 12,5% 12,0%14,3%
18,8%
32,4%
7,9%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jan-Set/06
International Market Share (RPK’s)
International Market Share (RPK’s) – 3Q06 International Market Share (RPK’s) - Nov/06
Source: ANAC
TAM 54,9%
Varig24,7%
GOL 11,3%
Others9,1% Varig
17,1%
TAM61,2%GOL
13,2%
Others8,4%
…and since July 2006, the leading Brazilian carrier in the international market
6
In retrospect, TAM was in a strong competitiveposition at the end of the ’90s
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 1 2 3 4 5
Transbrasil
TAM
VASP
Varig
Relative cost position
Network/Service/Brand
R$ 1.3B
High
Low
Low High
Note: for domestic market; Varig includes Rio Sul/Nordeste
Disadvantage
Advantage
AVERAGE 97/00
7
Increase in costs and loss of service awareness put TAM in a difficult position
Average 97-00
2002
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gol
Vasp
Vasp
TAM
TAM
Varig
Varig
Relative cost position
Network/Service/Brand
R$1,5B
High
Low
High Low
However, TAM became “squeezed” between Varig, the flagship carrier, and Gol, the new entrant
Note: for domestic market; Varig includes Rio Sul/Nordeste
8
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 1 2 3 4 5
OceanAirBRA
Varig
Gol
Vasp
TAM
TAM
Gol
Varig
Varig
TAM
Relative cost position
Network/Service/Brand
Today, TAM is “out of the squeeze” with a superior product acknowledgement and financial position
Average 97-00
2002
2006
New entrants/smallerplayers will be looking to
lower costs and serve the low end passengers
New entrants/smallerplayers will be looking to
lower costs and serve the low end passengers
9
In the past 4 years, we have improved every operational metric…
No. take-offs (K)
Load Factor
- LF Dom
- LF Int
Market Share Dom
MS/CS Domestic
Aircraft Utilization(block hrs/day)- Narrow bodies
- Wide bodies
20032003
76
147
61%
58%
71%
33%
0.97
7.6
5.8
7.3
TAM S.A.20042004
76
151
66%
64%
71%
36%
0.98
9.0
6.9
12.6
20052005
81
210
71%
70%
73%
44%
1.00
11.4
10.2
14.2
2006E2006E
96
240
75%
73%
77%
48%
1.02
12.6
12.6
15.1
No. operating aircraft
20022002
102
219
55%
53%
61%
35%
0.94
9.5
9.2
10.0
10
…resulting in an outstanding improvement in our financial metrics
Net revenues
EBITDAR
% EBITDAR
EBIT
% EBIT
Net Income
% Net Income
20022002
3,429
475
13.9%
(236)
-6.9%
(606)
-17.7%
20032003
3,667
775
21.1%
(32)
-0.9%
174
4.7%
20042004
4,520
1,038
23.0%
294
6.5%
342
7.6%
20052005
5,649
1,140
20.2%
426
7.5%
187
3.3%
Jan-Set/06Jan-Set/06
5,399
1,380
25.6%
764
14.2%
422
7.8%
BR GAAP
11
Today, we are one of the most lucrative airlines in the world…
TAM, GOL and Virgin Blue with 2006 annualized; LTM September 30, 2006 for other airlines; USGAAP1 Assumes average period exchange rates.
TAM
GOL
Ryanair
Southwest
Virgin
West Jet
Jet Blue
Avg (ex-TAM)
EBITDAR (1)
(US$ MM)EBITDAR (1)
(US$ MM)
801
510
819
1.587
389
343
267
652
OperatingIncome (1)
(US$ MM)
OperatingIncome (1)
(US$ MM)
522
357
593
924
177
178
(9)
370
NetIncome (1)
(US$ MM)
NetIncome (1)
(US$ MM)
389
289
495
528
113
79
(60)
241
EBITDARMargin (%)EBITDAR
Margin (%)
24,5
30,2
33,0
18,0
20,9
23,4
12,3
23,0
OperatingMargin (%)OperatingMargin (%)
16,0
21,1
23,9
10,5
9,5
12,1
(4,0)
12,2
NetIncome
Margin (%)
NetIncome
Margin (%)
11,9
17,1
19,9
6,0
6,1
5,4
(2,7)
8,6
12
…in an under penetrated market which continues to grow domestically…
Source: ANAC, IBGE and Brazilian Central Bank (“BACEN”)(1) GDP 2005 growth estimate published by the BACEN, based on market consensus
Growth of Brazilian Domestic Market
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
138.7RPK
100.0
110.1
116.1
100.0
111.4109.1
103.4103.2101.3
108.8103.7
GDP
Annual Trips / Person
1.70
1.85
2.32
0.62
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.82
Germany
Japan
US
Argentina
Chile
Mexico
Russia
Brazil
Boardings per capita
Boardings per capita, adjusted by GDP per capita at PPP
Source: World Bank Data, Credit Suisse Research
13
…and internationally
International market dynamics have been influenced by trade flows and exchange rate trends over the past five years
Since 2003 the Brazilian international market has been showing significant increase
International market has been growing ~6-8% p.a. including international carriers
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
100.0
91.2
98.0
104.6
90.4
94.0
RPK
Source: ANAC and IBGE(1) Defined as total exports plus total imports
Growth of Brazilian International Market
14.0%14.0% 2.6%2.6% (5.4)%(5.4)% 12.8%12.8% 31.2%31.2% 20.4%20.4%Annual
Trade Flow (1)
Growth
14
The international market has huge potential for growth on the Brazilian side
53%
47%
54%
46%
72%
28%
2004 2005 20060
20
40
60
80
100%
% International traffic
Braziliancarriers
Intlcarriers
15
There are “spaces” in the bilateral agreementswhich Brazil is not fulfilling
Opportunity for increasing frequencies to high traffic destinations
USA
U. Kingdom
France
Italy
Germany
Spain
Portugal
Mexico
Total FreqTotal Freq OperatedFreq - IntlOperatedFreq - Intl
AlocatedFreq - BrazAlocated
Freq - Braz
105
14
28
14
22
37
62
16
88
7
21
7
7
30
50
7
56
14
28
7
7
14
14
7
* December 2006
Non Exhaustive
OperatedFreq - BrazOperated
Freq - Braz
35*
7
14
-
7
1
1
-
“Spaces” onBraz Freq
“Spaces” onBraz Freq
49
-
-
7
15
23
48
9
16
We have delivered a strong 2006...
Average market share
Average load factor
Aircraft utilization per day (block hour)
CASK reduction yoy
New internationalflights
Guidance 2006Guidance 2006 Sept06 YTDSept06 YTD
Market demand growth (in RPK terms)
14.7%12%-15%
47%45%
72.9%69.5%
12.51above 12
2.1%5%
• Daily to NY• Flight to London
• Since May• Since October
TAMTAM
MarketMarket
17
…and believe in a very positive 2007
Average domestic market share above 50%
Average domestic load factor at approximately 70%
Aircraft utilization per day (block hour) higher than 13 hours
Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoyOpportunity in the international market
Third frequency to ParisInauguration of two new international long haul frequencies
Market demand growth from 10% to 15% (in RPK terms)
TAMTAM
Guidance 2007Guidance 2007
MarketMarket
18
In the domestic market, we will keep our yield differential, while matching load factors
GOL
TAM
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD20
25
30
35
Yield scheduled domesticR$ Cents
30% 18% 13% 15% 10%
Maintenance of a superior RASK, stimulating demand via competitive pricing
GOLTAM
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006YTD
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0%
Domestic load factors
GAP 9% 6% 7% 3% 1%
19
Meanwhile, our international expansion is clear
Passengerrevenue
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007
587
679
896
1,034
1,466
500
1,000
1,500
International Passenger Revenues (R$M)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
International ASKs
* Annualized
20
Cargo revenues will grow stronger with the international expansion
61
176
83
156
123
184
130
277
149
310
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
237 239
307
407
458
0
100
200
300
400
500
International Passenger Revenues (R$M)
DomesticIntl
CAGR
15%
25%
* Annualized
21
Frequent flier revenues have demonstrated in 2006 untapped potential for future growth
4123
44
24
29
57
47
31
58
126
56
58
53
65
73
85
121
41
115
145
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
132164
298276
422
0
100
200
300
400
500
Other Revenues (R$M)
Frequent FlierExpired TicketsSub-leasesOther
CAGR
57%
27%
15%
31%
22
Our methodology for stage length adjustments on CASK show us a 10-12% gap to Gol today…
STEP 1
Separate Narrowfrom Wide Bodies
STEP 1
Separate Narrowfrom Wide Bodies
To compare “apples to apples”, TAM removes theresults from wide bodies
Otherwise, we would be assuming that a widebody A330 would fly the shuttle service
23
Our methodology for stage length adjustments on CASK show us a 10-12% gap to Gol today…
STEP 1
Separate Narrowfrom Wide Bodies
STEP 1STEP 1STEP 1
SeparateSeparateSeparate NarrowNarrowNarrowfromfromfrom WideWideWide BodiesBodiesBodies
To compare To compare To compare “““applesapplesapples to to to applesapplesapples”””, TAM removes , TAM removes , TAM removes thethetheresultsresultsresults fromfromfrom widewidewide bodiesbodiesbodies
OtherwiseOtherwiseOtherwise, , , wewewe wouldwouldwould bebebe assumingassumingassuming thatthatthat a a a widebodywidebodywidebody A330 A330 A330 wouldwouldwould flyflyfly thethethe shuttleshuttleshuttle serviceserviceservice
STEP 2
StandardizeMaintenance Costs
STEP 2
StandardizeMaintenance Costs
GOL has maintenance as a “provision” on theirP&L (Phased Maintenance + SupplementalLease)
TAM accounts for Maintenance only whenincurred
TAM substitutes for a provision
24
Our methodology for stage length adjustments on CASK show us a 10-12% gap to Gol today…
STEP 1
Separate Narrowfrom Wide Bodies
STEP 1
Separate Narrowfrom Wide Bodies
To compare To compare To compare “““applesapplesapples to to to applesapplesapples”””, TAM removes , TAM removes , TAM removes thethetheresultsresultsresults fromfromfrom widewidewide bodiesbodiesbodies
OtherwiseOtherwiseOtherwise, , , wewewe wouldwouldwould bebebe assumingassumingassuming thatthatthat a a a widebodywidebodywidebody A330 A330 A330 wouldwouldwould flyflyfly thethethe shuttleshuttleshuttle serviceserviceservice
STEP 2
StandardizeMaintenance Costs
STEP 2
StandardizeMaintenance Costs
GOL GOL GOL hashashas maintenancemaintenancemaintenance as a as a as a “““provisionprovisionprovision””” ononon theirtheirtheirP&L (P&L (P&L (PhasedPhasedPhased MaintenanceMaintenanceMaintenance + + + SupplementalSupplementalSupplementalLeaseLeaseLease)))
TAM TAM TAM accountsaccountsaccounts for for for MaintenanceMaintenanceMaintenance onlyonlyonly whenwhenwhenincurredincurredincurred
TAM TAM TAM substitutessubstitutessubstitutes for a for a for a provisionprovisionprovision
STEP 3
Adjustment for stagelength
STEP 3
Adjustment for stagelength
Only 2 lines require adjustments for stage lengthpurposes:
Fuel – the more take-offs, the higher the fuelburnMaintenance – the more landings, the higherwear of the aircraft
25
…which will reduce to 5% by December 2007
The 5% gap “translates” into our 7% reduction y-o-y ex-fuel
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD
20.4
15.5
19.1
15.4
20.1
16.7
18.6
16.3
18.2
15.8
12
14
16
18
20
22
CASK total (BR GAAP - R$ centavos)
TAMGOL
Gap to Gol 32% 24% 20% 14% 15%
Our domesticgap is 10-12%
YTD
Our domesticgap is 10-12%
YTD
26
Our cost targets are aggressive, but the roadmap is already laid out
Fleet and networkFleet and network Distribution costsDistribution costs OverheadOverhead
27
Our cost targets are aggressive, but the roadmap is already laid out
Fleet and networkFleet and network Distribution costsDistributionDistributionDistribution costscostscosts OverheadOverheadOverheadOverhead
Increase of block hoursto over 13 hours per day per aircraft in 2007
6 extra seats in theA319/320 fleet
28
Our cost targets are aggressive, but the roadmap is already laid out
Fleet and networkFleetFleetFleet andandand networknetworknetwork Distribution costsDistribution costs OverheadOverheadOverheadOverhead
IncreaseIncreaseIncrease ofofof blockblockblock hourshourshoursto over 13 to over 13 to over 13 hourshourshours per per per daydayday ppper aircrafter aircrafter aircraft in 2007in 2007in 2007
6 extra 6 extra 6 extra seatsseatsseats in in in thethetheA319/320 A319/320 A319/320 fleetfleetfleet
Increase in direct salesthrough:
Site improvementFare bundlesCall centeroutsourcingNew means ofpayment
Insourcing ofrepresentatives
Adjusting indirect salescommissions to higher% on offpeak flights
29
Our cost targets are aggressive, but the roadmap is already laid out
Fleet and networkFleetFleetFleet andandand networknetworknetwork Distribution costsDistributionDistributionDistribution costscostscosts OverheadOverhead
IncreaseIncreaseIncrease ofofof blockblockblock hourshourshoursto over 13 to over 13 to over 13 hourshourshours per per per daydayday ppper aircrafter aircrafter aircraft in 2007in 2007in 2007
6 extra 6 extra 6 extra seatsseatsseats in in in thethetheA319/320 A319/320 A319/320 fleetfleetfleet
IncreaseIncreaseIncrease in in in directdirectdirect salessalessalesthroughthroughthrough:::
Site Site Site improvementimprovementimprovement
FareFareFare bundlesbundlesbundles
CallCallCall centercentercenteroutsourcingoutsourcingoutsourcing
New New New meansmeansmeans ofofofpaymentpaymentpayment
InsourcingInsourcingInsourcing ofofofrepresentativesrepresentativesrepresentatives
AdjustingAdjustingAdjusting indirectindirectindirect salessalessalescommissionscommissionscommissions to to to higherhigherhigher% % % ononon offpeakoffpeakoffpeak flightsflightsflights
Outsourcing of non-core activities
Redefinition of servicestandards
Review of spans&layers in the hierarquy
Implementation of new automated processes
Improved sourcing capabilities
30
We have aligned management with the correct incentives
Main KPIs:EBITComparable CASKPassenger andemployee satisfaction
Variableincentives basedon KPIs, reachingup to 70% of total compensation
Variableincentives basedon KPIs, reachingup to 70% of total compensation
Stock optionprogram for top
management
Stock optionprogram for top
management
Specificincentives for
salesforce
Specificincentives for
salesforce
Alignment with increaseof direct sales channels
Long term incentive for driving correct “trade-offs”
31
Sustainedcompetitive
position
Sustainedcompetitive
position
We are at our best ever competitive position, with more to deliver
Superior productBest value-price
Product bundles
Cash reserves5X monthlyrevenues in cash
Rating by Fitch andS&P (Global BB)
Decreasing financial expenses
Fleet planPositioned withAirbus and Boeing for future deliveries
Flexible fleet plan
Decreasing costsAggressive costreduction programapproved and beingimplemented
32
TAM: one of the best airline companies in the world!