Should the U.S. change its policy on the Taiwan

Straits?By Chris Hansen

History of the Taiwan Strait

• 111 mile strait between China and Taiwan

• China-Taiwan debate– Peoples Republic of China (PRC)– Republic of China (ROC) = “Taiwan”– Taiwan Strait Crisis(es)

History of the Taiwan Strait

• U.S.-ROC Defense Treaty (1954)

• Taiwan Relations Act (1979)– Passed after establishment of diplomatic relations with

PRC and Beijing– Breaking off of relations with ROC re defined the

American position on Taiwan.– U.S. doesn’t recognize the PRC vs. ROC terminology– Act provides Taiwan to be treated under U.S. International

laws

• One-China Policy (1992)– Policy that views China as a single state despite two

separate governments.– Both PRC and ROC honor the policy however both

disagree about which state is legitimate.

History of the Taiwan Strait

• First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954-1955)– Conflict between PRC and ROC “Taiwan”– PRC took over the Yijianghan Islands

forcing the ROC to abandon the Tachen Islands.

– The U.S. Navy helped evacuate ROC forces back to the Taiwan mainland.

–Quemoy and Matsu Islands became ROC first line of defense against the Communist Party of China.

History of the Taiwan Strait

• Second Taiwan Strait Crisis (1958)– Continuation of First Taiwan Strait Crisis

and the conflict between PRC and ROC “Taiwan”

– Artillery battle – 2,700 killed– U.S. Offered Aid to ROC under U.S.-ROC

Defense Treaty.– Air battle featuring the F-86 vs Chinese

MiGs– Crisis lasted 44 days = Stalemate

• PRC called for peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue

History of the Taiwan Strait

• Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996)– PRC conducted missile tests surrounding

Taiwan– Missiles were intended to send a strong

message to the ROC (because Lee-Teng Hui was moving ROC foreign policy away from the One-China Policy.)

– Response to 1996 election build-up– U.S. responded by sending naval fleet into the

Taiwan Strait• Display to the PRC that the US was ready, willing,

and able to defend Taiwan• Honor the Taiwan Relations Act

Solution 1

• Abandon strategic uncertanty and specify in advance US defense commitment to defend Taiwan

Solution 2

• Abandon strategic ambiguity and declare that the US will punish whichever player first moves to upset the status quo.

Solution 3

•  Continue to be ambiguous about US commitment to defend Taiwan. In this paper, we develop a game-theoretic model to study the conditions under which an ambiguous security commitment can actually work to preserve the status quo by preventing both China and Taiwan from provoking each other

My Recommendation

• Solution

Bibliography

• http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/quemoy_matsu.htm

• http://www.cgsc.edu/carl/download/csipubs/bjorge_huai.pdf

• http://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Press.aspx