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Tail Factors Working Party: Part 2. The Work Product Mark R. Shapland, FCAS, ASA, MAAA Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar Boston, MA September 12-13, 2005 Slide 2 Paper Overview Organized by Type of Method Sections Describe: Mechanics of each method, Examples for most methods, Results of our Testing, and Results of our Surveys Slide 3 Paper Overview Standard Notation: Consistency, Started with Notation from Reserve Variability Working Party Added new notation where lacking Summarize Areas for Future Research Slide 4 Section Overview Bondy-Type Methods Algebraic Methods Benchmark Methods Open Claim Methods Curve Fitting Methods Lifespan Methods Miscellaneous Methods Slide 5 Bondy-Type Methods Bondy Method Use last link ratio: Modified Bondy Method Double or square: Generalized Bondy Method (Weller) For 0