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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

System Dynamics Applications with Impact

George P. Richardson Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy

University at Albany, State University of New York

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Outline

• Commodity cycles • Project dynamics • Urban dynamics • Epidemics & infectious disease policy • What generates impact?

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Commodity Cycles

(All graphs from http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/)

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Peanuts (USD/ton), 1982-2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

GAMBIA: Can peanut farming bounce back? http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=83773

Photo: Nicholas Reader/IRIN

Groundnuts are Gambia’s biggest cash crop, bringing in 43 percent of agricultural revenues and 13 percent of overall income, according to Bakary Trawally, permanent secretary of the Department of State for Agriculture.

http://www.irinnews.org/http://www.irinnews.org/

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Aluminum (USD/ton) 1982-2012

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Phillipines: Artisanal mining compounds landslide risk

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=94629 MANILA, 12 January 2012 (IRIN) - A deadly landslide in the southern Philippines in early January underscores the dangers of unregulated, artisanal mining, experts say.

According to the World Bank, an estimated 20 million men, women and children worldwide from over 50 developing countries are engaged in artisanal and small-scale mining, while a further 100 million depend on it for their livelihoods.

http://www.irinnews.org/photodetail.aspx?ImageId=201201120813240068

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Coffee Price (US cents/pound) 1982-2012

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

A Simple Commodity Model

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

A Simple Commodity Model

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A Simple Commodity Model Simulated

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Simple Commodity Model Behavior

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Commodity Cycles from Random Disturbances

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A More Sophisticated Commodity Model (Sterman, Business Dynamics)

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Production Capacity

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Price Dynamics

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Demand

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Capital Investment Decisions

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Inventory, Production & Shipments

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Production Capacity & Utilization

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Prices & Influences on Price

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Project Dynamics

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Famous Overruns selected from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_overrun

Australia • Sydney Olympic Park • Sydney Opera House Canada • Pickering Nuclear

Generating Station • Montreal Olympic Stadium • Rogers Centre (SkyDome) Denmark • Great Belt railway tunnel Sweden • Göta Canal • Hallandsås Tunnel

Japan • Joetsu Shinkansen high-speed

rail line Malaysia • Pergau Dam United Kingdom • Humber Bridge • Millennium Dome • National Programme for IT • Scottish Parliament Building United States • Big Dig, Boston • Denver International Airport • F-22 Raptor

• San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge span replacement

• Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II

• V-22 Osprey • Hubble Space Telescope Multinational • Airbus A380 • Airbus A400M • Channel Tunnel • Concorde • Eurofighter

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Modeling Project Dynamics

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Modeling Project Dynamics

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Modeling Project Dynamics

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Modeling Project Dynamics Dynamic Hypotheses

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Modeling Project Dynamics

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Tasks

Cumulative Perceived Progress

Cumulative Real Progress

Undiscovered Rework

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Project Dynamics

Fraction perceived complete

Workforce

Scheduled Completion Date

Perceived productivity

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Impactful Project Modeling • Litton Industry ship building litigation

• Cooper, K. G. (1980). Naval Ship Production: A Claim Settled and Framework Built. Interfaces 10(6)

• Channel Tunnel litigation • Eden, Ackermann & Howick, University of Strathclyde

• Fluor Corporation project management • Kenneth Cooper and Gregory Lee, System Dynamics Society Application

Award 2009, System Dynamics Review 24,4 (winter 2009): 339-341.

• And many others by Pugh-Roberts, PA Consulting, Greenwood Strategic Advisors, and others

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Urban Dynamics

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Urban Dynamics

• J.W. Forrester, Urban Dynamics (1969). MIT Press. Reprinted by Pegasus Communications.

• L. Alfeld and A. Graham, Introduction to Urban Dynamics (1976). MIT Press. Reprinted by Pegasus Communications.

• The Problem: Understanding urban growth, stagnation, and decline

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New York, Chicago & Philadelphia, 1800-2000

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Populations of Selected U.S. Cities, 1900-2000

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Urban Decay Camden, NJ, USA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Camden_NJ_poverty.jpg

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Forrester’s City: Endogenous Dynamics

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Simple Urban Model: URBAN1

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Simple Urban Model: URBAN1

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Simple Urban Model: URBAN1

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Simple Urban Model: URBAN1

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Dynamics of Urban1: Growth, Stagnation & Decline

Housing

Businesses

Population

Labor-to-Job Ratio

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Urban Dynamics Core Structure

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Urban Dynamics Key Stocks

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Selected Policy Parameters in URBAN1

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Building low cost housing (t ≥ 40)

Little impact, no improvement

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Wildly successful jobs program (t ≥ 40)

Short run benefit, no long run effect

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Housing demolition (t ≥ 40)

Makes things better! Why?

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Eliminating Urban Decay

Bingo!

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

What policies prevent urban decay and improve long run employment?

Housing

Businesses

Population

Labor-to-Job Ratio

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Modeling the Spread of Diseases

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Modeling Epidemics

• Influenza • HIV / AIDS • Childhood diseases • Polio • ...all examples of Epidemiology

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Polio Remains in Pockets Worldwide

Eradicating polio in India Polio, a disease that has blighted the lives of millions, has almost been wiped out, but stubborn areas of resistance remain. Eradicating the disease in India is seen as the key to a polio-free world.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2009/nov/27/polio-vaccination-india#/

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Core Structure of Infectious Diseases

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Epidemic Structure Quantified

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Epidemic Model with Quarantine

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Epidemic Model with Quarantine & Inoculation

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Comparing & Combining Policies

Epidemic Quarantine 75%

Quar 70% & Innoculate

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Eradication of Polio Worldwide

• Kimberly M. Thompson and Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens. “Eradication Versus Control for Poliomyelitis: an Economic Analysis” The Lancet 369,9570 (April 2007): 1363-137.

• Winners of the Forrester Award from the System Dynamics Society in 2008.

• Thompson and her colleagues persuaded the World Health Organization to change its global polio strategy from containing outbreaks to eradication!

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Poliomyelitis Before and After Vaccines

Source: Thompson and Tebbens (2006)

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

Eradication of Polio Worldwide

• “Downplaying the modeling to focus on the policy questions played a critical role in the use of the results by decision makers.” • Thompson & Tebbens, Using system dynamics to develop

policies that matter: global management of poliomyelitis and beyond. System Dynamics Review 24, 4 (winter 2008): 433-449.

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

CDC View of Stocks in Future Health Priorities

CDC: Enhancing Health Protection!

Safer, Healthier People

Vulnerable People

Afflicted People without Complications

Primary prevention

Secondary prevention

Tertiary prevention

General protection

Targeted protection

Society's Health Response

Dying from complications

Afflicted People with

Complications

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And there are many more, of course...

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

More Impactful Applications • Flood mitigation • Climate modeling and global

temperature dynamics • Welfare reform in the United States • Afghanistan counter-insurgency

dynamics and policy • Model-based health care policy

studies...

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What Creates Impact • Significant problem • Clear dynamic problem definition • Stakeholder involvement • Multiple perspectives • “Requisite” modeling: what’s necessary, and no more • Large models for confidence, small models for understanding

• Modeler usually builds small to large (like examples in this presentation) • Audience usually experiences large to small

• Powerful, insightful, sensitive, inquiring communication • Endogenous perspective

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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany

The “X/N” Matrix

Striving for understanding and

leverage, but failing

Achieving understanding and

leverage

Accepting fate, Predicting, Preparing

Confused, Misguided, Misguiding

Exogenous Endogenous True (Predominant) State of Affairs

Exog

enou

s En

doge

nous

Pred

omin

ant M

ode

of A

naly

sis

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The Policy Resistance of Complex Systems

System Dynamics�Applications with ImpactOutlineCommodity CyclesPeanuts (USD/ton), 1982-2012Slide Number 5Aluminum (USD/ton) 1982-2012Phillipines: �Artisanal mining compounds landslide riskCoffee Price (US cents/pound) 1982-2012Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Simple Commodity Model BehaviorCommodity Cycles �from Random DisturbancesSlide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Inventory, Production & ShipmentsProduction Capacity & UtilizationPrices & Influences on PriceProject DynamicsFamous Overruns�selected from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_overrunModeling Project DynamicsModeling Project DynamicsModeling Project DynamicsModeling Project DynamicsModeling Project DynamicsTasksProject DynamicsImpactful Project ModelingUrban DynamicsUrban DynamicsNew York, Chicago & Philadelphia, 1800-2000Populations of Selected U.S. Cities, 1900-2000 Urban Decay Camden, NJ, USA�Forrester’s City: Endogenous DynamicsSimple Urban Model: URBAN1Simple Urban Model: URBAN1Simple Urban Model: URBAN1Simple Urban Model: URBAN1Dynamics of Urban1: �Growth, Stagnation & DeclineUrban Dynamics Core Structure�Slide Number 48Selected Policy Parameters in URBAN1Building low cost housing (t ≥ 40)�Wildly successful jobs program (t ≥ 40)�Housing demolition (t ≥ 40)�Eliminating Urban Decay�What policies prevent urban decay and improve long run employment?Modeling the Spread of DiseasesModeling EpidemicsPolio Remains in Pockets WorldwideCore Structure of Infectious DiseasesSlide Number 59Epidemic Model with QuarantineEpidemic Model �with Quarantine & InoculationComparing & Combining PoliciesEradication of Polio WorldwidePoliomyelitis Before and After VaccinesEradication of Polio WorldwideSlide Number 66CDC View of Stocks in Future Health PrioritiesAnd there are many more, of course...More Impactful ApplicationsWhat Creates ImpactThe “X/N” MatrixThe Policy Resistance of Complex Systems