SYNDICATDES ENERGIES RENOUVELABLES UNESCOPARIS 12 FEVRIER2015 · 2016. 11. 29. · operating...

SYNDICAT DES ENERGIES RENOUVELABLES

UNESCO PARIS12 FEVRIER 2015

Michael Liebreich, Chairman of the Advisory BoardTwitter: @mliebreich

1Michael Liebreich Paris, 12 February 2015 @MLiebreich

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY2004-14 ($BN)

$60bn$88bn

$128bn

$175bn

$205bn $206bn

$272bn

$318bn

$294bn

$268bn

$310bn

46%

46%

36%

17%

0.5%

32%

17%-7%

-9%16%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF SOLAR PV, 1976-2014 (2014 $/W)

Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI.Source: Paul Maycock, First Solar, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0.1

1

10

100

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000

experience curve historic prices (Maycock)Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF) Thin-film experience curve

1976

1985

2003

2006

2012

1976

1985

2003

Q4 2013

2012

Cumulative capacity (MW)

2014

2014 $/W

SOLAR PV MODULE COSTS HAVE FALLEN 60% SINCE 2008


AVERAGE LEVELIZED COST OF ONSHORE WIND, 1984-2014 (€/MWH)

Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI.Source: Paul Maycock, First Solar, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

1984

1990

20002004

2014

10

50

100

500

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

MW

EUR/MWH

WIND POWER COSTS HAVE FALLEN 26% SINCE 2008


NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY2004-2014 ($BN)

Note: Does not include carbon capture and storage

0.6 0.8 1.2 2.5 2.6 1.7 4.5 3.2 10.9 9.513.6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Middle East & Africa

27.7 38.151.8

72.687.5 89.0

119.2129.198.3

66.0 66.5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Europe

18.425.330.940.952.3

65.078.7

98.3113.2

126.5154.3

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Asia & Oceania11.819.0

37.345.546.839.555.3

72.659.055.460.8

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

North America & Caribbean

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN THE USQ1 2004-Q4 2014 ($BN)

1.21.60.81.72.0

4.02.1

3.6

6.36.46.5

10.2

7.37.59.4

11.39.6

10.9

8.37.3

3.3

8.9

6.55.66.6

9.57.3

12.9

6.1

16.718.6

10.09.2

14.7

7.97.2

4.0

9.86.6

16.1

9.5

12.910.2

8.2

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Four quarter running average


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC

Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the ‘year1’ selling price.

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14

PJM

MISO

MountainWestNEPOOL

NYISO

SPP250 MW

US WIND PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATEH1 2008–H2 2013 ($/MWH)


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC

Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the ‘year1’ selling price.

US SOLAR PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATEH1 2008–H1 2014 ($/MWH)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14

AZCACONMNVNYTX

300MW

50MW


THE ORACLE OF CLEAN ENERGY

Picture: Bloomberg

We’ve poured billions and billions and billions of dollars [into renewables]. And we’re going to keep doing that as far as the eye can see.

Warren BuffettCEO Berkshire Hathaway



Note: This represents fund size; actual capital invested is lower and non-public. This figure may not include all non-public deals. Does not include all third-party financiers. Each fund contains an unknown combination of equity, tax equity or debt (or an absence of tax equity or debt). *The $300m Clean Power Finance fund raised on 3 May 2012 does not contain tax equity

CUMULATIVE FUNDS CLOSED BY SELECTED THIRD-PARTY FINANCIERS, JAN 2009-MAR 2014 ($M)

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

Jan

09Ap

r 09

Jul 0

9O

ct 0

9Ja

n 10

Apr 1

0Ju

l 10

Oct

10

Jan

11Ap

r 11

Jul 1

1O

ct 1

1Ja

n 12

Apr 1

2Ju

l 12

Oct

12

Jan

13Ap

r 13

Jul 1

3O

ct 1

3Ja

n 14

Apr 1

4

SolarCity

Sunrun

SunPower

Vivint

SunEdison

Clean PowerFinanceSungevity



NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN CHINAQ1 2004-Q4 2014 ($BN)

0.60.30.60.91.42.11.5

2.51.92.13.13.13.13.9

5.23.53.8

7.86.76.4

8.07.4

10.312.7

7.5

9.811.0

10.110.1

14.011.8

11.610.6

19.9

16.414.4

8.4

18.617.7

15.714.4

25.524.3

17.0


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



CHINESE PREMIER DECLARES WAR ON POLLUTION

Credit: Bloomberg

We will resolutely declare war against pollution as we declared war against poverty

Li KeqiangPremier of the People's Republic of China

March 2014


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030

GW Biomass &wasteSolar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Historic Forecast

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity CouncilNote: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook 2014.

2013 Renewable energy 68% of new capacity

CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY, 2004-13, 2020 & 2030


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030

GW Biomass &wasteSolar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Historic Forecast

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity CouncilNote: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook 2014.

CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY, 2004-13, 2020 & 2030

2013 renewable energy 68% of new

capacity

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2020 2030

biomasssolarwindhydronuclearGasoilcoal


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2030 Market Outlook (2014)

INDIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY GROWTH FORECAST VIS-À-VIS TARGET (GW)

36 43 51 59

70 83

99 117

202

0

50

100

150

200

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 New2022target

Solar

Wind

Biomass

https://www.bnef.com/Insight/9953



NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN EUROPEQ1 2004-Q4 2014 ($BN)

4.4

7.9

4.15.46.0

10.9

7.48.27.8

13.9

7.9

16.0

9.6

16.914.2

24.4

13.9

23.2 22.3

19.9

12.4

27.4

22.3

17.0

22.925.4

29.431.0

27.3

33.9

29.8

26.5

21.5

23.8

19.0

22.3

15.913.0

13.3

11.7

13.9 13.1

9.2

17.8


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Destatis

ENERGIEWENDE 2 – GERMAN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY2000–30 (TWH)

Fossil

Nuclear Renewables

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2014 Renewable energy provided ~30% of German

electricity


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.Note: Investment figures includes asset finance and small distributed capacity investment. Biofuels and other non-power generation sectors excluded.

78.7 8.8

12.2 13.5

21.1

33.229.4

22.4

9.8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Other

Wind

Solar

ENERGIEWENDE 2: INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE POWER GENERATING CAPACITY, ($ BN)


INITIAL COST OF DEBT, ONSHORE WIND PROJECTSGERMANY, 2005-2014 (%)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Germany Margin

Swap Fees

Term Swap

6M Euribor

ECB Rate


INITIAL COST OF DEBT, ONSHORE WIND PROJECTS FRANCE, 2005-2014 (%)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

France Premium

Germany Margin

Swap Fees

Term Swap

6M Euribor

ECB Rate



FRANCE NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004 – Q4 2014 ($BN)

0.190.09

0.130.11

0.29

0.78 0.79

0.57

1.021.17

0.50

2.13

1.05

0.690.84

1.04

0.66

1.421.59

0.900.68

0.650.66

0.90

1.351.21

0.92

1.18

1.861.89

2.061.93

1.56

1.80

1.081.03

1.00

1.44

0.94

0.60

0.961.07

1.28

2.11


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014




FRANCE NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR Q1 2004 – Q4 2014 ($BN)

0.190.09

0.130.11

0.29

0.78 0.79

0.57

1.021.17

0.50

2.13

1.05

0.690.84

1.04

0.66

1.421.59

0.900.68

0.650.66

0.90

1.351.21

0.92

1.18

1.861.892.06

1.93

1.56

1.80

1.081.03

1.00

1.44

0.94

0.60

0.961.07

1.28

2.11


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Wind Solar Bioenergy Other

22Michael Liebreich Paris, 12 February 2015 @MLiebreich● 2/13/2015


UNITED KINGDOM NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004 – Q4 2014 ($BN)

0.380.10

0.440.32

0.80

1.64

0.87

1.061.031.17

2.26

1.31

1.82

1.16

1.92

0.77

1.041.47

1.92

0.27

5.335.25

0.79

1.25

0.50

4.044.15

2.10

3.35

2.03

3.06

1.95

4.06

1.79

4.204.07

2.53

3.48

3.903.82

1.87

1.02

7.64


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014




SPAIN NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004 – Q4 2014 ($BN)

1.05

2.04

0.571.01

1.31

1.701.63

1.020.71

2.85

1.85

4.09

1.85

4.414.17

12.61

4.11

5.72

8.59

5.19

1.80

3.97

3.13

0.85

1.832.40

2.01

1.151.16

5.66

1.63

0.830.86 1.00

0.140.59

0.12 0.15 0.35


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014




ITALY NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004 – Q4 2014 ($BN)

0.170.28

0.19 0.220.71

0.940.570.510.450.59

0.85

1.631.26

1.58

2.86

1.681.19

1.912.33

1.79

5.77

4.845.40

7.69

8.36

9.29

7.106.85

3.663.98

3.613.62

1.211.201.14

1.080.46

0.29 0.33


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014




Comprehensive review under wayRetroactive changes implemented (2010-13)Retroactive changes implemented (2010 -13)Suspended

Comprehensive review under way

Suspended

EUROPEAN POLICY SUPPORT SCHEMES UNDER REVIEW, 2013


BIGGEST RISK TO CLEAN ENERGY IN EUROPE:GREECE

Picture credit: AFP



FOSSIL FUEL AND NUCLEAR RENEWABLES

GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS 2010–30 (GW)

10687 78 64 52 39

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Forecast

6083

107

155

196

264

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Marine

Solar

Wind

Biomass& wasteGeotherm.

Forecast


Notes: See Section 2 of the accompanying report for methodology.Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Terminal

● 26 January 2015

GREEN BOND ISSUANCE, 2007-14($BN)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ABS

Project

US municipal

Labelled corporate

Supranational,sovereign & agency


Notes: ‘APAC’ is Asia-Pacific; ‘AMER’ is Americas region; ‘EMEA’ is Europe, Middle East, Africa. ‘EST’ stands for energy smart technologies, BNEF’s terminology for digital energy, energy efficiency and advanced energy storage. ‘EVs’ stands for electric vehicles. ‘Other’ includes bioenergy, geothermal and small hydro. See Section 2 of the accompanying report for methodology.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Terminal

● 26 January 2015

INVESTMENT GRADE CLEAN ENERGY CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE, 2007-14 ($BN)

02468

101214161820

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

20

EMEA AMER APAC


CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030($BN)

Note: Global Futures figures from 2008 restated to reflect current investment calculation methodology

Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008,Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030





0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030





0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Average2010 - 2014$292 billion

Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system

[email protected]

MARKETS Renewable EnergyEnergy Smart TechnologiesAdvanced TransportGas Carbon and RECs

SERVICESAmericas ServiceAsia Pacific ServiceEMEA ServiceApplied Research Events and Workshops

Michael LiebreichTwitter: @mliebreich

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SYNDICATDES ENERGIES RENOUVELABLES UNESCOPARIS 12 FEVRIER2015 · 2016. 11. 29. · operating...

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