Swiss scenarios and the Swiss- Energyscope Platform (www ... · Elec. transport Elec. procédés...

Swiss energy transition: Understand to choose

Prof D. Favrat, EPFL Energy Center

Swiss scenarios and the Swiss-

Energyscope Platform

(www.energyscope.ch)

Avec le support de:

Swiss-Energyscope

Why a new information platform and calculator?

Starting points:

• weak knowledge about energy in the population (non experts)

• need to rationalize teaching in the different academic sections ( “experts”)

Hence the need for a calculator that can be adapted to both

inspired by Mackay in UK (DECC) but adapted:

- to Swiss situation

- to be sequential (avoid the black box negative effect)

- to account for the seasonal asymmetry

Swiss-Energyscope

www.energyscope.ch

Swiss-Energyscope

The books

Shorter versions from this month

Swiss-Energyscope

Ongoing: Extension to canton and city

Vaud Lausanne

• EU application being evaluated

• Paper in Energy (in Press,2015)

Swiss-Energyscope

Electricity, Gas, Diesel and Wood ? (lesson 1)

Electricity

1 kWh

Diesel

1 litre

10 kWh

Natural Gas

1 m3

11.2 kWh

Wood

or 1 m3 (oak)

2100 kWh

1 kg

5.6 kWh

Swiss-Energyscope

Scales and monthly representation (lesson 2)

2011

Chaleur perdue

Transport

Chaleur de procédés

Eau chaude

Chauffage de bâtiments

Elec. transport

Elec. procédés

Elec. eau chaude

Elec pompe à chaleur

Elec chauffage à rés.

Elec. Autres

Légende

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

kWh/Einwohner

2011

Abwärme

Verkehr

Prozesswärme (th.)

Warmwasser (th.)

Heizung (th.)

Mobilität (el.)

Industrie (el.)

Warmwasser (el.)

Wärmepumpe (el.)

Elektroheizung (el.)

Andere (el.)

Swiss-Energyscope

Yearly, seasonal, monthly + 6 indicators

Swiss-Energyscope

Present situation

Annual demand of final energy* in 2011 [GWh]

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

Waste heat

Transport (non electric)

Process heat (non el.)

Hot water(non electric)

Space heating (non el.)

Electricity: transport

Electricity: procédés

Electricity: hot water

Electricity: heat pump

Electricity: Joule heating

Electricity: others

Légendes:

23.4%

27.5%

5.9%

3.4%

19.0%

1.0%

5.8%

0.8%

0.4%

1.1%

11.7%

Total:

285’519

Swiss-Energyscope

BFE scenarios : "NPE" 2035

Annual demand of final energy* in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh]

Electricité: transport

Electricité: procédés

Electricité: autres

Légendes:

23.4%

27.5%

5.9%

3.4%

19.0%

1.0%

5.8%

0.8%

0.4%

1.1%

11.7%

10.0%

22.9%

9.1%

5.5%

18.8%

4.6%

7.3%

0.3%

1.9%

1.4%

18.2%

2011 2035 2011 2035

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

Total:

285’519

Total:

181’275

Waste heat










Electricity: others

Swiss-Energyscope

Scenarios of the Confederation: "NEP" 2035 (L6)

Final energy*demands in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh]

2011 2035

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

Total:

180’698




Légendes:

23.4%

27.5%

5.9%

3.4%

19.0%

1.0%

5.8%

0.8%

0.4%

1.1%

11.7%

10.0%

22.9%

9.1%

5.5%

18.8%

4.6%

7.3%

0.3%

1.9%

1.4%

18.2%

2011 2035 2011 2035

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

Total:

285’519

Total:

181’275

Waste heat










Electricity: others

Swiss-Energyscope

SFOE Scenarios : "NPE" 2035

Final energy* demands in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh]

2011 2035

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

Total:

180’698




Legend:

23.4%

27.5%

5.9%

3.4%

19.0%

1.0%

5.8%

0.8%

0.4%

1.1%

11.7%

10.0%

22.9%

9.1%

5.5%

18.8%

4.6%

7.3%

0.3%

1.9%

1.4%

18.2%

2011 2035 2011 2035

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

Total:

285’519

Total:

181’275

Waste heat










Electricity: others

Swiss-Energyscope

Scénarios de la Confédération: "NPE" 2035

Final energy demands* in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh]

2011 2035

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000




Legend:

2011 2035

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

Total:

285’519

Total:

181’275

Waste heat










Electricity: others

Swiss-Energyscope

SFOE Scenario : "NPE" 2035 et 2050

Legend:

23.4%

27.5%

5.9%

3.4%

19.0%

1.0%

5.8%

0.8%

0.4%

1.1%

11.7%

10.0%

22.9%

9.1%

5.5%

18.8%

4.6%

7.3%

0.3%

1.9%

1.4%

18.2%

2011 2035

4.3%

20.8%

9.0%

7.9%

15.0%

7.7%

8.0%

0.1%

2.0%

0.6%

24.6%

2050 2011 2035

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

2050

Total:

138’076

Final energy*demands in 2011, 2035 and 2050 [GWh]

2011 2035

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

Total:

285’519

Total:

180’698

Total:

181’275

Total:

138’598

Waste heat










Electricity: others

Swiss-Energyscope

SFOE Strategy : six scenarios for the future

Final energy* demands in 2011, 2035 and 2050 [GWh]

Légendes:

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

2011 2035

Total:

221’858

Total:

197’631 Total:

181’275

high medium low

2050

Total:

201’022 Total:

164’577

Total:

138’598

high medium low Total:

285’519

Waste heat










Electricity: others

Swiss-Energyscope

Comparison of costs (lesson 9)

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Milliards Frs

2011

2050

Low

2050

Medium

2050

High

Nuclear Fossil electricity Hydro Wind Solar PV Geothermal Electric grid Seasonable storage Electricity import Cogeneration Boilers Other heating Transportation fuels Energy efficiency

Swiss-Energyscope

The broad spectrum of future costs for nuclear

Kannan &Turton Cost of ad-hoc nuclear policy. Energy Policy 2012.

Initial agreement reached on new nuclear power station

at Hinkley (EDF Energy-UK)

The key terms include a “Strike Price” of £89.50 /MWh

fully indexed to the Consumer Price Index

Swiss-Energyscope

Comparison with Prognos scenario 2050 low

Swiss-Energyscope

Electricity and transport

Swiss-Energyscope

Role of renewable (Prognos 2050)

Swiss-Energyscope

La Suisse «électrique» n ’est pas une île

Swiss-Energyscope

Prix à la bourse européenne d ’électricité

25.06.2008

Prix

[€/MWh]

19.01.2009 15.08.2009 11.03.2010 05.10.2010 01.05.2011 25.11.2011 20.06.2012

50,00

60,00

70,00

80,00

90,00

100,00

40,00

Swiss-Energyscope

Le prix du carbone en chute libre en Europe

2009 2010 2011 2012 0

2

4

6

8

1

0

1

2

1

4

1

6

1

8

2

0

€ par tonne Prix du carbone dans l’Union Européenne

https://newmatilda.com/2013/07/18/only-idiot-would-scrap-carbon-price from http://www.investing.com/commodities/carbon-emissions-historical-data

https://newmatilda.com/2013/07/18/only-idiot-would-scrap-carbon-price











http://www.investing.com/commodities/carbon-emissions-historical-data







Swiss-Energyscope

Comparison between 2011 and 2050 low

Swiss-Energyscope

Conclusions

● European market completely unbalanced (only subsidies) ● Low prices of coal and hydro carbons, with depressed carbon

market. In Switzerland swiss hydro and cogeneration producers are clearly disadvantaged

● Debates on nuclear safety and future prices hotter than ever ● Implies wrong signals to investors (for ex: hydro pump storage)

and energy efficiency measures ● Generally positive comments regarding energyscope.ch including

from abroad but too early to judge on impact. Early negative reactions from “emotionally sensitive” groups (global warming deniers, anti-wind mills, ultra-pro-nuclear)

Swiss-Energyscope

Que de choses il faut ignorer pour agir !

So many things we have to ignore, to act

(Valery)

Thanks for your attention

Swiss scenarios and the Swiss- Energyscope Platform (www ... · Elec. transport Elec. procédés...

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