Sustainable Engineering Sustainable Engineering applied into the PET plastic applied into the PET plastic supply chain. A policy tool supply chain. A policy tool

for industry and government.for industry and government.

Dr. Omar Romero Dr. Omar Romero

Background: PETBackground: PET

PET Market distributionPET Market distribution

Soft drinks52.8 %

Bottled water15 %

Simulation Model

Demand Forecast for PET

BottlePET

Carbonates

Water

Oil

Food

Others 1Usage

Film PET

TextilePET

Others 2 (Potential)

Others 3 (Potential)

PET demand’s histogram

BottlePET

Carbonates

Water

Oil

Food

Others 1Usage

Film PET

TextilePET

Others 2 (Potential)

Others 3 (Potential)

PET demand’s histogram

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

5200

00

5600

00

6000

00

6400

00

6800

00

7200

00

7600

00

8000

00

8400

00

1000

000

Demanda

Fre

cuen

cia

Rel

ativ

a

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

5200

00

5600

00

6000

00

6400

00

6800

00

7200

00

7600

00

8000

00

8400

00

1000

000

DemandaF

recu

enci

a A

cum

ula

da

Results after 1,000 simulations:

Demand Forecast for PET

COMPOSICIÓN DEL MERCADO DE PET EN MÉXICO

Refresco

Agroquímicos

AguaFilm

AceiteAlimentos

Otros

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Año

ton

/añ

o

Refresco Agroquímicos Agua Film Aceite Alimentos Otros

Demand Forecast for PET

0

2 0000

4 0000

6 0000

8 0000

1 00000

1 2 0000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Año

VOLUMEN TOTAL DE ACOPIO

Volumen(tons PET)

Waste collection forecast

YEAR

TASA DE ACOPIO

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Año

Rate of waste collection

YEAR

ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE System Analysis:

CHINA

STATESUNITED

Electricity

MEXICO

Recycler 1

Recycler 2

Recycler 3

Other

Recyclers national

Port

Manzanilloand Nuevo Laredo

EXPORTS

Centers

Transfering

Landfill

Collection Center

Blow Forming Bottle Filling

HDPE

COSTUMER

PP

Electricity

MEXICO

PET

grade

bottle

Results LCA

1 p

Life Cycle

1 p

Beverage

5,04E6 kg

HDPE

4,29E8 kg

PET

4,53E7 kg

PP

3E7 MJ

Electricity

4,29E8 kg

Blowing

1,42E7 kg

Cardboard

4,29E6 kg

HDPE

5,25E9 MJ

Electricity

4,79E8 kg

Waste

1,2E7 kg

Recycling

1,88E7 MJ

Electricity

-1,2E7 kg

RecycledPET

3,45E7 kg

Export

1 p

Life Cycle

1 p

Beverage

5,04E6 kg

HDPE

4,29E8 kg

PET

4,53E7 kg

PP

3E7 MJ

Electricity

4,29E8 kg

Blowing

1,42E7 kg

Cardboard

4,29E6 kg

HDPE

5,25E9 MJ

Electricity

4,79E8 kg

Waste

1,2E7 kg

Recycling

1,88E7 MJ

Electricity

-1,2E7 kg

RecycledPET

3,45E7 kg

Export

Results LCA (Waste Scenario)

1 pWaste

Scenarios-4,23E7

4,79E8 kg

Waste

1,2E7 tkm

Transport

2,3E7 MJ

Diesel

1,2E7 kg

Recycling

1,88E7 MJ

Electricity

-1,2E7 kg

PETRecycled

3,45E7 kg

Export 1

3,89E7 tkm

Transport

4,14E6 MJ

Electricity

7,19E6 kg

Export 2

7,82E6 tkm

Trasnport

1 pWaste

Scenarios-4,23E7

4,79E8 kg

Waste

1,2E7 tkm

Transport

2,3E7 MJ

Diesel

1,2E7 kg

Recycling

1,88E7 MJ

Electricity

-1,2E7 kg

PETRecycled

3,45E7 kg

Export 1

3,89E7 tkm

Transport

4,14E6 MJ

Electricity

7,19E6 kg

Export 2

7,82E6 tkm

Trasnport

Results LCA (Waste Scenario)

Results LCA (Waste Scenario))

GWP Total (Escenario a y b)

2.95E+09

3.00E+09

3.05E+09

3.10E+09

3.15E+09

3.20E+09

3.25E+09

3.30E+09

3.35E+09

3.40E+09

3.45E+09

0 20 40 60 80 100

% Acopio

kg C

O2

eq

escenario a

escenario b

Results LCA (Waste Scenario)

Alternative for improving PET plastic recycling rates:

Deposit-refund schemes have been successfully incorporated in developed countries.

Should México follow the same sustainable solution?

Waste collection facilities in MexicoPET

However, two problems have to be addressed before

PET waste is re-processed...

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jun-

95

Dic-95

Jun-

96

Dic-96

Jun-

97

Dic-97

Jun-

98

Dic-98

Jun-

99

Dic-99

Jun-

00

Dic-00

Jun-

01

Dic-01

Jun-

02

US

$c

/lb

Problem 1: International Price fo Recycled PET1995-2002

Problem 2: Landfill scenario

The fact that a sustainable solution (such as deposit-refund) performs well in a developed country does not

necessary mean that it will also succed when applied in a developing country.

Current status and future trends:

Price guarantee for each kg of PET collected

Co-responsibility between Society-Industry-Government

School recycling contestMedia campaign

Industry initiatives should go beyong current legislation