Surface Water Challenges on the Canadian

Prairies

Risk and AdaptationPrairie Water Policy Symposium

International Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentSeptember 2005, Winnipeg, Manitoba

Dave Kiely, P.Eng.Ag Water DirectoratePrairie Farm Rehabilitation AdministrationAgriculture & Agri-Food Canada

Presentation Outline:Prairie Surface Water

(Ag Focus)

• Vulnerability of the Water Resource

• Prairie Exposure / Vulnerability /Adaptation Experience

• Climate Variability (CV) /Climate Change (CC) Projections

• Opportunities

Canadian Prairies:

Drought Risk

• CV on Prairies – Drought of the 1930’s

- Major economic impacts

- Federal response…

Canada established the PFRA in 1935 to assist in the “rehabilitation of the drought and soil drifting areas … and to develop and promote systems of farm practice, tree culture, water supply, land utilization and land settlement that will afford greater economic security”

Prairie Vulnerability & Adaptation to Drought…

(Economic/Environmental/Societal)

Prairie Vulnerability & Adaptation to Drought……

(Economic/Environmental/Societal)

• PFRA activities:

- Migration to wetter agricultural areas

- Formation of 1.0 M ha of Community Pastures

- Rural Water Development Program

- Large scale irrigation projects

- Provision of trees (shelterbelts) to reduce soil erosion / trap snow

- Irrigation research and demonstration - centres

EXTENT OF 2001– 2002 DROUGHT IN THE PRAIRIE REGION OF CANADA

Drought of 2001 / 2002…

• The 2001 and 2002 droughts were unusually severe, spatially extensive and long-lasting

• 2001 national in extent

- More severe in west than east

• Climatic evolution and persistence different from other Canadian droughts – was difficult to predict and identify the cause.

• Multi-year drought (started in 1999 in parts of the prairies) compounded severity

• Losses in Agricultural Production of $2B (2002 - Alberta & Sask) - $3.6B for Canada

• Loss of GDP $3B (Alberta & Sask) - $5.8B for Canada

• Areas like Northern Alberta & Northern Sask had little experience with this type of event – particularly vulnerable

Adaptation

• history of water development – small scale to large scale

• dugouts to Gardiner Dam to regional pipelines• Agencies involved (railways (early) to Canada to

provinces)• Irrigation development

Prairie Vulnerability & Adaptation to Drought…

(simple case of on-farm water supplies)

• Rural water supplies extremely vulnerable

• Rural water supply adaptation:

- constructed dugouts / small reservoirs

- groundwater – deep wells

- rural water pipelines

- pasture pipelines

Agricultural Adaptation

Irrigation in Canada

Province Prov Govt 2004 Estimates (Ha)

Potential Irr (Ha)

Potential Irrigated Areas as % of Actual

British Columbia

121,408 182,113 150%

Alberta 728,450 1,011,736 139%

Saskatchewan 80,939 404,694 500%

Manitoba 30,352 60,704 200%

Ontario 60,704 202,347 333%

Quebec 25,000 35,000 140%

NB 500 575 115%

NS 3,642 7,285 200%

PEI 2,023 4,047 200%

NL 45 136 300%

Canada 1,053,065 1,908,637 181%

Reservoirs and irrigation works are built or repaired in southwest Saskatchewan.

Water development projects for individuals and communities begin in 1936.

Farmers are paid up to $50 for the construction of dugouts.

Eastend, Val Marie and West Val Marie dams are completed, providing water for irrigation, livestock and domestic uses

Prairie Dugout…

• For 70 years, designed for a 2 year supply-“coping range”

• Must provide 100% availability for livestock

• Stakeholder feedback: Recent droughts have shown this design criteria is no longer appropriate

• Now consider that a 3 year supply design criterion is more appropriate

In 1943, construction was completed on a number of significant structures in Saskatchewan including:

• Duncairn Dam on Swift Current Creek in southwestern Saskatchewan

• Control structures on Echo, Crooked and Round Lakes in the Qu’Appelle River system

In 1946, investigations for dam sites along the Red Deer, South Saskatchewan, and St. Mary Rivers; and construction on the St. Mary Irrigation Project began.

In the spring of 1950, major flooding in the Red River Valley and other areas in Manitoba, lead to responsibility for the dikes and flood control works along the Assiniboine River from Portage la Prairie to Winnipeg being transferred to PFRA.

Canada and Manitoba sign the Saskatchewan River Reclamation Project Agreement for diking and draining to reclaim 100,000 acres in the Pasquia area west of The Pas in 1953.

The additional water provides a more secure supply to Regina and Moose Jaw and opportunity for economic development.

The Buffalo Pound Water Supply Project starts pumping water from the South Saskatchewan River to Buffalo Pound Lake via the Qu’Appelle River in 1956.

Opportunities - Kalium Solution Potash Mine and SAFERCO Fertilizer Plant

In 1963, Canada and Manitoba agree to build the Shellmouth Dam on the Assiniboine River to provide flood control and water conservation.

Construction began in 1965.

On July 21, 1967, Prime Minister Pearson and Premier Thatcher officially opened Gardiner Dam (at that time Canada’s largest earthfill dam) signifying completion of the South Saskatchewan River project (started in 1958).

The SNBB studies, which were completed in 1972, evaluate storage and diversion possibilities in the Saskatchewan and Nelson River basins including the investigation, design and costing of 55 possible dams and 23 possible diversions.

CV / CC Projections that would Impact the Water Resource…

Our water resources are vulnerable…

• Most of Canada would become wetter / warmer (less cold)

•opportunity

• Changes in rain / snow mix

• Changes in timing of precipitation events

• Longer agricultural growing season

• More extreme weather events

• Assumed increased rate of evaporation in many areas

• Deteriorating water quality

CV / CC Indications for Prairie Water Resources…..

• Higher rates of evaporation (?) increasing losses in surface waters, including reservoir storage

• Changes in stream flow patterns

(higher spring and lower summer flows)

• More frequent and severe droughts – dry spells

(Prairies, Southern Ontario, interior BC)

• Glaciers retreating

(Supply)

CV / CC Indications for Prairie Water Resources…..

• Increasing demands for water across many communities/sectors due to warmer temperatures

• Increasing need for irrigation (currently the largest net consumer of water in Canada)

• Increasing population pressures independent of climate change

(Demand)

CV / CC Implications for Prairie Water Resources…..

(Economic/Environmental/Societal)

• Increased pressure for water diversions / inter-basin transfers of water

• Impacts on economic activity and legal obligations (water availability / quality)

• Increasing costs for water treatment

• Increasing conflict around water allocations

Prairie Vulnerability & Adaptation to Drought…

• Factor CC into planning / design

• Funding to improve infrastructure

• Better understanding of groundwater

• Improved water use efficiency

• Better seasonal climate predictions to help broaden the coping range

• Improve monitoring capability – trend analysis (water and climate)

(Needs)…

Effective Water Resources Management into the Future– Opportunities…

• Design to ensure efficient use of existing supplies (includes educating our clients)

• Support engagement of stakeholders & all levels of government in identifying & addressing the issues

• Promote multi-barrier approach to water treatment; watershed as the first step (IWRM)

• Apply CC scenarios in design / development of new supplies – no regrets option

Opportunities…(Cont’d)

• Integrate with social and natural sciences in addressing CC vulnerability of the water resource

• Consider the real value of water

• Cooperation – shared government and private sector leadership role

• role in providing tools to incorporate CC …information for decision makers…

-develop better seasonal forecasts-develop appropriate CC scenarios that address hydrologic

and meteorological data requirements-hydrologic analyses that include CC-support development of adaptation options-strengthen collaboration between departments and with

the private sector

Opportunities (cont’d)…

• Develop and implement innovative technologies to facilitate adaptation

• Educate ourselves and our clients about CC

• Water is an integrator of communities in our society - an essential element that demands we work together to secure the resource…

…will be Key in Addressing CC Vulnerability Issues

Opportunities (cont’d)…

Continued Adaptation

Water Supply

Water Treatment

Irrigation Efficiency

Watershed Management

Coping with Global Warming and Climate Variability requires …

Continuing Adaptaion

Short-term strategies …

...And long-term strategies

QUESTIONS?