SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

EXPOSUREMODEL

EXPOSUREMODEL

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

VULNERABILITYMODEL

VULNERABILITYMODEL

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

VULNERABILITY IS THE ULTIMATE CAUSE OF RISK

UNREINFO

RCED MASO

NRY, BRIC

K OR S

TONE

REINFORCED C

ONCRETE WIT

H UNREIN

FORCED WALLS

INTENSITYINTENSITY

REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS

STEEL FRAME

ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME

VV VIVI VIIVII VIIIVIII IXIX

3535

3030

2525

2020

1515

1010

55

00

MEA

N D

AM

AG

E R

ATIO

,

%

M

EA

N D

AM

AG

E R

ATIO

,

%

O

F R

EPLA

CE

MEN

T V

ALU

EO

F R

EPLA

CE

MEN

T V

ALU

E

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

AN INTRAPLATE EARTHQUAKE 400 KM FROM PLATE BOUNDARY-- “A SURPRISE”

GUJARAT EARTHQUAKEGUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

MAGNITUDE 7.7

JUST BEFORE 0900 ON A HOLIDAY (51st Republic Day)

MAGNITUDE 7.7

JUST BEFORE 0900 ON A HOLIDAY (51st Republic Day)

20,000 DEAD 167,000 INJURED 400,000 HOMES

DESTROYED 600,000

HOMELESS

20,000 DEAD 167,000 INJURED 400,000 HOMES

DESTROYED 600,000

HOMELESS

STRICKEN URBAN CENTERSSTRICKEN URBAN CENTERS BHUJ,

(150,000), 20 km from epicenter

Devastated

BHUJ, (150,000), 20 km from epicenter

Devastated

AHMEDABAD (5.6 MILLION)

50 multi-story buildings collapsed

AHMEDABAD (5.6 MILLION)

50 multi-story buildings collapsed

Over 1 million structures damaged or destroyed.

GUJARAT EARTHQUAKEGUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

GUJARAT EARTHQUAKEGUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

SEARCH AND RESCUE

GUJARAT EARTHQUAKEGUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

THE REASONS ARE . . . When it does happen, the

functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST for long periods.

THE REASONS ARE . . . The community is UN-

PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . . The community has NO

DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . . The community LACKS THE

CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

RISK ASSESSMENT

• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

• EVENTEVENT

POLICY ASSESSMENT

• COSTCOST

• BENEFITBENEFIT

•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES

MOVING TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE MOVING TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

EARTH-EARTH-QUAKESQUAKES

EARTH-EARTH-QUAKESQUAKES EXPECTED EXPECTED

LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

INDIA’S INDIA’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

INDIA’S INDIA’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•QUAKE HAZARDS•PEOPLE & BLDGS. •VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

EARTHQUAKE RISK EARTHQUAKE RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: EARTHQUAKE GOAL: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES

PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY AND UNLIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES

PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES

TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE