Supply & Use Tables(SUTs), Input-Output Tables (IOTs) and ...
Transcript of Supply & Use Tables(SUTs), Input-Output Tables (IOTs) and ...
Inventoryof producers of environmental goods and services
UNFCCC In-Forum Economic Model
30 April – 1 May 2018
Supply & Use Tables(SUTs), Input-Output Tables (IOTs) and Social Accounting Matrix:
The case of Zambia.
Litia SimbangalaNational Accounts Branch, CSO, Zambia
Republic of Zambia
Central Statistical Office
Introduction
Follows methodology of Green Jobs Assessment Institutions Network (GAIN):
✓ Climate policy – construction sector
✓ Develop national statistics!
✓ Analyse employment outcomes with Input Output
✓ Social impacts with Social AccountingMatrix
The Compilation of the SUT and IOT was based mainly on the recommendations of the 2008 System of National Accounts (UN, 2008 SNA) and the 2008 Eurostat Manual on Supply, Use and input-Output Tables.
▪ SEEA framework provided the basis for the classification of what was green sector in the SUT and IOT
▪ Harmonizes SNA 2008 & Environment
Background
Goal: Assessing the potential of the economy to create jobs, particularly in the “green” sector
The GEPM exercise will generate information as follows:
• A quantitative estimate of total employment including environment-related employment;
• A quantitative estimate of green jobs that satisfy both environmental criteria and decent work criteria according to the ILO/UNEP definition;
• Quantitative estimates of indirect/induced jobs in the green economic sectors and the “green” activities
Implementation framework
MNDP, MoF, CSO, ZIPAR
Core Technical Committee
Wider stakeholder working group set up
Data framework
Input-Output Table
Green Economy (GE) Mapping
Social Accounting Matrix
Implementation Team
Statistics• Since the model was going to based on Supply and Use Tables (SUT)
and uses the Leontief Inverse of the Input Output table (IO) for employment projections.
• Therefore:-• Data from the National Accounts and the support of CSO was therefore
central.
• CSO had conducted an Economic Census in 2011/2012 for the reference year of 2010.o The main objective of the Economic Census was to benchmark the National
Accounts Statistics from 1994 to 2010.
o And compilation of the Supply and Use Tables was one of the objectives.
o However, due to the urgent need for benchmarked and rebased GDP series, CSO did not use the SUT framework. Because it was anticipated that it would take longer to compile them.
Methodology
The CSO, Zambia, with the assistance from Green Jobs , ILO and IMF AFRITAC South computed Supply & Use and Input-Output tables for the year 2010. (disseminated in November 2017)
• The 2010 SUT consists of 123 products and 24 Industries.
• The selection of the products was based on the availability of data and their importance in the economy.
• The products were classified using the Central Product Classification (CPC) 2.1 while the industries are classified using the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC), Rev.4.
• The Compilation of the SUT and IOT was based mainly on the recommendations of the 2008 System of National Accounts (UN, 2008 SNA) and the 2008 Eurostat Manual on Supply, Use and input-Output Tables.
• Balancing the SUT: two processes, namely manual and automatic balancing were employed to bring the SUT into balance.
National AccountsSupply and Use
Table
Economic Census
Living Conditions Monitoring
Survey
Consolidated Financial
Statements from BOZ
Consolidated Financial Statements
from PIA
Labor Force Survey
Consumer Price
Statistics
Balance of Payment
Merchandise Trade
Statistics
Population and Housing
Census
Informal Sector Survey
Index of Industrial
Production
Govt Finance Statistics
Agriculture statistics
Data sources for National Accounts
• HBS based Surveys more complete than cross sectional (2002/2003)
• CPI Weights are relatively old
• There is need for comprehensive agriculture surveys
• PHS are not regularly conducted
• Statistical Business Register Update
• Producer Price Index is not yet available
• Trade Indices not available as well
The Quality of NA statistics is more dependent on the quality of basic economic statistics
SUT and the Green Activities
• The CSO SUT incorporates Green Activities.
• In September 2016 ILO and CSO met from which some products were split into green and non-green. A small survey was conduted.
• The environmental (Green) activities are defined as those economic activities whose primary purpose is to reduce or eliminate pressures on the environment or to make more efficient use of natural resources.
• Agriculture
• Manufacturing
• Electricity
• Accommodation & food services.
Industries of focus
Additional information on the industries of focus was collected to facilitate the compilations of SUT with Green products
What are Supply and Use Tables?
➢Supply and Use Tables shows how goods and services are made available in the economy and how they are used.
▪ The Supply table shows domestic production and imports.
▪ The Use table shows intermediate consumption, final
consumption and exports.
Basic SUT Structure
SUPPLY USE
Product
(Row)/Ind
ustry
(Column)
Industries
Imp
ort
s
Val
uat
ion
Industries
FCE
GC
F
Exp
ort
s
P1
P2 Domestic Output
Intermediate
Consumption
P3
.
.
.
P123
Value Added
Components
The Supply Table
Industries Valuation
Industries (Column)
Ag
ricu
ltu
re
Min
ing
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
……
……
….
oth
er s
ervi
ces
Imp
ort
s
TT
Mar
gin
s
Net
Tax
es
Tota
l
Products
(Row)
Maize
Output by product by Industry
Imports
by
Product
Trade and
Transport
Margins
by
Product
Taxes by
Products
Total
Supply
by
Products
Wheat
Copper ore
Meat products
.
.
other services
Total Total Output by IndustryTotal
Imports
Total
margins
Nil
Total Net
Taxes
Total
Supply
• Primary outputs are in the diagonal
• Secondary outputs are off diagonal
The Use Table
IndustriesIndustries
(Column)
Ag
ricu
ltu
re
Min
ing
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
……
.
oth
er s
ervi
ces
Fin
al
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Gro
ss C
apit
al
Fo
rmat
ion
Exp
ort
s
Tota
l
Products
(Row)
Maize
Intermediate consumption by product by
industry
Final uses by product and by
category
Total use
by
product
Wheat
Copper ore
Meat products
………
other services
Total Purchasers Price Total intermediate consumption by industry Total Final use by category Total use
Value Added Value added by component by industry
Balancing the SUT
Manual Balancing➢Systematic interrogation of data,
➢Use of justifiable assumptions,
➢Discussions with subject matter specialists,
➢Estimation of missing values using commodity flow, etc.
Automatic Balancing➢CSO used RAS procedure to automatically balance the SUTs for
small imbalances not resolved manually
➢RAS is an iterative mathematical procedures based on proportional allocation of imbalances
Supply Table
Condensed Supply and Use Table
Use Table
Domestic Output + Imports = Intermediate Use+ FCE + GCF + Exports
Product Balance: Total Supply = Total Use
K’ Million Industries Valuation Industries
Product (rows) /
Industry (columns)
Ag
ricu
ltu
re
Min
ing
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
Ser
vice
s
Imp
ort
s
TT
Mar
gin
s
Net
Tax
es
To
tal S
up
ply
at
pu
rch
aser
s p
rice
Ag
ricu
ltu
re
Min
ing
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
Ser
vice
s
FC
E
GC
F
Exp
ort
s, f
ob
To
tal u
se a
t
pu
rch
aser
s p
rice
Agricultural products 15,000 0 0 0 81 3,475 -627 17,928 1,199 0 7,902 9,431 7,060 151 1,286 17,928
Mining products 0 7,912 0 0 4,265 1,395 376 13,947 0 2,816 5,561 9,276 661 808 3,202 13,947
Manufactured products 293 16,240 28,024 5,246 21,162 18,882 4,535 94,381 2,031 4,441 4,542 26,982 26,107 11,387 29,906 94,381
Services 0 1,959 753 66,927 2,148 784 1,087 73,658 2,984 5,697 3,776 28,973 28,278 14,782 1,626 73,658
Trade 0 64 1,004 20,926 0 -21,993 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Freight transport
services0 0 0 4,417 0 -2,542 9 1,884 9 363 61 929 98 0 857 1,884
CIF/FOB adjust 0 0 0 -881 0 -881 0 0 0 0 0 -881 -881
Total 15,292 26,175 29,781 97,515 26,774 0 5,380 200,917 6,223 13,318 21,842 75,591 62,203 27,128 35,995 200,917
VA 93,172
SUT to IOT Transformation
Compilation SUT
• Output
• Imports
• Valuation
• Intermediate consumption
• Final Consumption expenditures
• Capital Formation
• Exports
Balancing SUT
• Manual Balancing
• Automatic Balancing
Transformation
• Prepare the SUT at basic prices
IOT
• Total IOT• Import IOT
• Domestic Supply IOT
• IOT Direct coefficients
• The Leontief Inverse coefficients
Basic Structure of IOT
ProductsAgriculture
Products
Manufacturing
ProductsServices
Final Consumption
Expenditure
Capital
FormationExports Total Use
Agriculture
Products Intermediate consumption by product
and by homogeneous units of
production
Final uses by product and by
categoryManufacturing
Products
Services
Value Added Value Added Components
Imports
Total Supply
Product by Product IOT
➢ Outputs of one industry are used as inputs in another industry or for final consumption or exported
➢ Intermediate demand Quadrant shows intermediate inputs of products used to produce the total output of each product.
➢ Final demand Quadrant presents final use of goods and services supplied by each product and by type of uses, i.e. final consumption, exports and gross capital formation.
➢ Value added Quadrant shows the value of labour inputs and consumption of fixed capital.
Condensed Product-by-Product IOT
K’ Million
Product (Row) Product
(Column) Ag
ricu
ltu
re
Pro
du
cts
Min
ing
Pro
du
cts
Man
uf.
Pro
du
cts
Ser
vice
s
To
tal I
C
FC
E
GC
F
Exp
ort
s, f
ob
To
tal U
se a
t B
P
Agriculture Products 1,017.4 0.0 7,616.0 264.5 8,898.0 4,980.8 94.4 1,107.0 15,080.2
Mining Products 0.0 824.9 4,368.8 765.7 5,959.4 645.8 808.1 3,005.9 10,419.2
Manuf. Products 2,337.6 770.8 9,032.6 13,890.7 26,031.7 12,337.7 7,038.3 28,194.7 73,602.4
Services 3,308.3 2,174.0 10,807.3 17,790.9 34,080.6 40,619.2 18,200.3 4,416.5 97,316.5
Total Basic 6,663.3 3,769.7 31,824.8 32,711.9 74,969.6 58,583.5 26,141.1 36,724.1 196,418.3
Net Taxes -612.1 184.1 364.0 685.4 621.5 3,619.3 986.8 152.1 5,379.7
CIF/FOB Adju 0.0 -881.1 -881.1
Total Purchasers Price 6,051.2 3,953.8 32,188.8 33,397.3 75,591.1 62,202.8 27,127.9 35,995.1 200,916.9
GVA 8,948.3 3,957.9 18,494.6 61,771.0 93,171.9
Total Output at Basic Price 14,999.5 7,911.7 50,683.4 95,168.3 168,762.9
Total Imports CIF 80.7 2,507.5 22,919.1 2,148.3 27,655.6
Total Supply at Basic Price 15,080.2 10,419.2 73,602.5 97,316.5 196,418.5
SUT, IOT, SAM and Models
Data:
National Accounts
and others…
Supply and Use Tables
SUT framework
Transformation
Compilation
IOT
P-by-Por
I-by-I
Social Accounting
Matrix
(SAM)
Calibration and data base for
other
Models
Thank You!
https://www.zamstats.gov.zm/index.php/publicati
ons/category/29-national-accounts
Link to the PDF document and Excel files for the2010 Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables for Zambia
For more [email protected]