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SUMMER OUTLOOK 2017 AND WINTER REVIEW

Moderator: Claire CamusPresenters: Alina Neagu, Alban Joyeau

Programme

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Introduction

Summer Outlook2017andexpectedimprovements

Cold spellreport“ManagingCriticalGridSituations”23

4Conclusion

Questions

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1

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Summer Outlook + Special report on cold spell

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1Decision-makingtriangle

Member states

Regulators System Operators

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Regional Service

Coordinators

2 Regional TSO cooperation

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3 Policy regions

Other parties3

Regional cooperation in the electricity sector

Regional Security Coordinators

Mandatory since 2016 through EU

regulation (Network Codes)

Started voluntarily in

2008

Extended voluntarily in all

Europe as of 2015

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Long and mid term planning: > 1 yearOperationalplanning: 1 year to 1 hour

Dispatch/ Real time

RSCs support TSOs with

coordinated tools & analysis

TSOs take decisions all the way. RSCs recommendations respected in 99% of cases. The remaining 1% due to differences in countries’ electricity regulations

Decisions taken in one timeframe influence the others & vice-versa

The grid decision timeframes

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Review of the January 2017 cold spell

Alina Neagu

Webinar Summer Outlook and January 2017 cold spell

ENTSO-E Winter Outlook 2016/2017

• Under severe conditions all countries in blue would be needing imports to maintain their adequacy

• The tense situation in France due to reduced nuclear generation availability was highlighted as well as impact on neighbouring countries

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Week 3 & 4 of January à the lowest temperatures reached and the adequacy situation was worsening

25 January: highest consumption peak due to low temperatures à alert of insufficient reserves to cover short-term electricity demand

TSOs ensured the grid security by operational measures and strong coordination around the clock + regular daily alignments by responsible operational management + use of well

prepared and reliable mutual support mechanisms

New legislation for operational network codes & guidelines will enter into force in 2017 àincludes mandatory and regulated regional coordination process based on voluntary past

experience

January 2017 – situation in the European power grid

OverviewBased on actual facts and figures from TSOs and RSCs• Chapter 1 – Setting the scene provides an overview on the cold spell

situation in Europe during January 2017• Chapter 2 – Our role ensures a clear view on the attributions of each

entity involved (TSO, ENTSO-E, RSC), as well as defining the future services requested from RSCs side

• Chapter 3 – The Cold Spell at a glance provides an overview on what the Winter Outlook 2016/2017 said, and how the System Security was affected during January 2017 events, by countries affected

• Chapter 4 – Detailed overview of each country’s actions contains an in-depth overview of specific conditions as described by individual TSOs from the affected countries

• Chapter 5 – Market prices is providing a first analysis of the Market aspects (as the report is firstly based on operation)

• Chapter 6 – Our key focus areas provides recommendations proposed for implementation primarily at pan-European level

ENTSO-E Cold Spell Report

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Success Challenges

Due to the cold spell and low nuclear availability in France, the French power grids but also Italy, Switzerland and Belgium were under stress

Coordination of operational planning though Regional Security Coordinators really helped in managing the situation.

In South Eastern European countries (Romania, Bulgaria and Greece), a very

severe cold wave occurred with temperatures even much lower than one-

in-ten-year situations. Further weather phenomena, including snowstorms,

avalanches, rivers droughts, occurred which had a significant impact on

generation and transmission.

This led to exceptional measures to be decided at government level such as

export bans

ENTSO-E Cold Spell Report – Successes & Challenges

REGIONAL COORDINATION AND ANALYSIS

»» Improve the efficiency of inter-TSO cooperation and the involvement of RSCs from week-ahead to Intraday, especially in SEE where regional cooperation is now being established.

»» Mutual exchange of information for safeguarding measures applied among the TSOs needs to be continuously reviewed and information updated between TSOs where the situation may change year on year.

»» Future evolution of Short & Medium Term Adequacy service both, in the direction of short time (D-2, D-1) as well as for longer periods beyond a week is being delivered through pilot projects being implemented within ENTSO-E.

»» The implementation of CACM Guideline and more specifically the setup of D-2 to intraday coordinated capacity calculation processes on all borders is a necessary precondition for ensuring secure operation of the interconnected system.

Next steps & Recommendations

ENERGY MARKET

»»ForSouthEastEurope,furtherevolutionandeffectivenessofregionalelectricitymarketwouldneedtobeoftoppriority.

Next steps & Recommendations

LINK TO COAL AND GAS

»» Coal storage is in general based on market expectations. TSOs to investigate the need of appropriate procedures to monitor and to take measures on coal storages depending on individual risk levels and in line with the national regulation frameworks.

»» Due to the link between gas and electricity supply, the TSOs for gas and electricity need to ensure the close cooperation and forward planning of risk scenarios ensuring measures can be taken to guarantee security of supply in both gas and electricity.

Next steps & Recommendations

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

»» “Stress tests” based on historical experience of critical situations (e. g. exceptionally dry years, multiple outages, etc.) to be conducted

»» Address multiple outage situations, including the risk level of probabilistic outages of generators by country

»» Hydro modelling improvement is to be investigated

Next steps & Recommendations

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Seasonal OutlooksSummer Outlook 2017 and next steps

Alban Joyeau

Webinar Summer Outlook and January 2017 cold spell

Different risks addressed at different times

Mid term

InvestmentdecisionsPolicydecisions Operationaldecisions

MAF

6 months1 year5 years10 years 1 week

REAL TIME

Long term

TYNDP

>10 years

Short term

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES

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§ Role of interconnections

§ Influence of external factors: weather, market conditions, consumerbehaviour…

§ Sensitivity analysis: look for severe case scenario (1 out of 10 years) & see how system reacts

§ Review of the previous season for a deeper understanding and improvements

What do the outlooks tell you?

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ENTSO-E seasonal outlooks- Stepwise approach

Focusedanalysisonregionspotentiallyatrisk

Buildpan-Europeancontrainingscenarios

CollectinputsfromTSOs

Atsynchronous pan-European peaktime(upwardadequacy)=>Wednesdays7pm

Atlowdemandtime+highRES(downwardadequacy)=>Sundays5am&11am

Probabilisticapproachusingnumeroussituations(temperature,wind...)

Aimistoestimatetheprobabilitythatanissuecouldoccur

Maindriversareidentified

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Evolution of the generation mix 2016 - 2017DifferenceinGW

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Summer Outlook- Severe Conditions

ITnITcnITcsITsITsarITsic

Capacityexcess(export)ImportdrivenbymarketImportneededforadequacy15%ofdeficitcannotbecoveredwithimports

SensitivitywithItalysplitinto6BiddingZones

Week 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39ALATBABEBGCHCYCZDEDKEEESFIFRGBGRHRHUIEITLTLULVMEMKMTNINLNOPLPTRORSSESISKTR

UA_W

InPolandnoriskatsynchronoustime(7pmCET),possibleissueatlocalpeak(earlyafternoon)

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Italy – Probabilistic assessmentIncaseofveryhightemperatures(dailyaverage>28°C)andlowhydroresourcespotentialriskof

plannedloadshedding

Main countermeasures:Ø demand side responseØ maximising imports from the neighbouring countriesØ maximising generation capacity (e.g. maintenance reschedule, reactivation of

mothballed plants)

q Risk level considered very highfrom mid-June to end July

q Central-North bidding zone isthe most critical one

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Focus on Poland at local peak hour (13-14 CEST)

Risks, mainly in weeks 29 and 30:• Long lasting heat wave, dry weather;• Limited import capacity on

synchronous profile with DE+CZ+SK due to high unscheduled flows through Poland (in the west to south direction).

Operational, extraordinary measures:• Additional, emergency import to

Poland on synchronous profile under the condition of simultaneous multilateral re-dispatch;

• Demand Side Response contracted in advance.

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Downward regulation

Exportneedswhenminimumdemandwithhighrenewables(Sunday11amCEST)

Riskofwind/PVcurtailmentinSouthernItaly,SicilyandSardinia

Week 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39ALATBABEBGCHCYCZDEDKEEESFIFRGBGRHRHUIEITnITcnITcsITsITsarITsicLTLULVMEMKMTNINLNOPLPTRORSSESISKTR

UA_W

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What for next Winter Outlook 2017/18?More severe scenarios (P95 for temperature/ PV/ wind)

Hydro reservoir curve for main hydro countries with awareness if low level. Overall table in main report

(over average, in average, below)

Historical occurence of critical events and stress tests “what if projected again to current grid” (TSO

expert view)

Multiple outage probality: N-2 example on small area (e.g. Italy) At least generators

outages, if possible also HVDC/ interconnection

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TargetmethodologyandtooltoconvergewithMidTermAdequacyForecast(MAF)withhighchallengingtimelineforcalculation

Contributetoidentifycrisisscenarios(cf.RiskPreparednessdraftregulation,Art8)

Furthercoordinationwithweekaheadadequacy,especiallyconsistentmethodology(cf.RiskPreparednessdraftregulation,Art5)

Next steps beyond 2017

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Any questions?

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Key takeaways

Cold spell

> In Western Europe, proven added value of the current set up for regional security coordination which is now mandatory through EU regulation

> More cooperation needed in South East Europe but also more market integration and policy alignment needed

> Outlooks need to evolve to cover more severe conditions

Summer Outlook

> Italy & Poland to be monitored

> Outlooks to evolve and improve notably with lessons from last winter

> Outlooks need to evolve to cover more severe conditions

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ThanksforyourattentionAlbanJoyeau/AlinaNeagu