Summary Orderbook by Contractor Orderbook & …...Baku Shipyard 1 COSCO 1 4 1 DSME 20 15 9 Dalian...
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Bassoe Offshore AS Analysis of Floaters under construcon— March 2017 Oslo—Houston—London—Rio—Dubai www.bassoe.no Summary • The «Bluewhale I» was delivered in February from Yantai CIMC Rafles. The rig has a 4 month contract with CPOE in the South China Sea. • Currently 33 loaters are under construction (excl. Brazil), of which 3 have reported term contracts. • With Ensco, Seadrill and North Sea Rigs having deferred delivery of its Drillship and Semi’s under construction at Samsung, Jurong and CIMC, total conirmed deferrals equals ~49 rig years. • Our estimated construction cost of a standard 7th generation drillship (incl. 2 BOPs) has been adjusted upwards to approximately USD 451 mill. Orderbook by Contractor Orderbook & Track Record by Yard Track Record* Order Book Yards DS SS DS SS Baku Shipyard 1 COSCO 1 4 1 DSME 20 15 9 Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. 1 Hyundai HI 17 2 2 Jurong Shipyard 14 2 1 Keppel FELS 13 1 Samsung HI 54 4 7 1 Shanghai Shipyard 3 3 Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuild. 1 Yantai CIMC Raffles 8 4 Others 9 21 Total International Yards 104 82 22 11 Brazil Yards BrasFELS 6 Ecovix-Engevix 3 Estaleiro Atlantico Sul 7 Estaleiro Enseada do Paraguacu 6 Estaleiro Jurong Aracruz 7 Total Brazil Yards 23 6 Bassoe Estimate 3 3 * Harsh environment specification **All Contracts have been terminated and are being renegotiated between Petrobras and Sete *Track Record: Units delivered post 2000 Midwater more than 400’ to less than 4,500’ Deepwater 4,500’ to less than 7,500' Ultra-deepwater 7,500’ or more Floaters under Construction by Segment* Yard Market Share of Ongoing NB projects* Contracted Uncontracted Total Owner DS SS DS SS Con- Uncon- Atwood 2 2 Socar 1 1 COSL 1* 1 DSME 1 1 Ensco 1 1 CIMC Bluewhale Rig 1 1 Hyundai HI 2* 2 Keppel FELS 1 1 North Atlantic Drilling 1* 1 North Sea Rigs 3* 3 Ocean Rig 3 3 Opus Offshore 3 3 Samsung 1 1 Seadrill 4 1 5 Stena 1* 1 Sonangol 2 2 Transocean 2 2 2 2 Total 2 1 20 10 3 30 Sete Brasil Contractors** DS SS Etesco CONTRACTS CANCELLED 5 Odebrecht 4 1 Odfjell Galvao 3 Petroserv 2 Queiroz Galvao 3 Seadrill 3 Sete Brasil 8 Total Brazil Contractors 23 6 Semisubmersible & Drillship (33 units) Semisubmersible (11 units) Drillship (22 units) *Excluding Brasil Source: Bassoe Research, Shipyards and IHS Petrodata Rig Status by Asset Class #168 #75 #40 40,5% 45,0% 31,1%
Transcript of Summary Orderbook by Contractor Orderbook & …...Baku Shipyard 1 COSCO 1 4 1 DSME 20 15 9 Dalian...
Bassoe Offshore AS
Analysis of Floaters under construc�on— March 2017
Oslo—Houston—London—Rio—Dubai
www.bassoe.no
Summary • The«BluewhaleI»wasdeliveredinFebruaryfromYantaiCIMCRaf�les.Therighasa4monthcontractwithCPOEintheSouthChinaSea.
• Currently33�loatersareunderconstruction(excl.Brazil),ofwhich3havereportedtermcontracts.
• WithEnsco,SeadrillandNorthSeaRigshavingdeferreddeliveryofitsDrillshipandSemi’sunderconstructionatSamsung,JurongandCIMC,totalcon�irmeddeferralsequals~49rigyears.
• Ourestimatedconstructioncostofastandard7thgenerationdrillship(incl.2BOPs)hasbeenadjustedupwardstoapproximatelyUSD451mill.
OrderbookbyContractor Orderbook&TrackRecordbyYard
Track Record* Order Book
Yards DS SS DS SS
Baku Shipyard 1
COSCO 1 4 1
DSME 20 15 9
Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. 1
Hyundai HI 17 2 2
Jurong Shipyard 14 2 1
Keppel FELS 13 1
Samsung HI 54 4 7 1
Shanghai Shipyard 3 3
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuild. 1
Yantai CIMC Raffles 8 4
Others 9 21
Total International Yards 104 82 22 11
Brazil Yards
BrasFELS 6
Ecovix-Engevix 3
Estaleiro Atlantico Sul 7
Estaleiro Enseada do Paraguacu 6
Estaleiro Jurong Aracruz 7
Total Brazil Yards 23 6
Bassoe Estimate 3 3
* Harsh environment specification
**All Contracts have been terminated and are being renegotiated between Petrobras and Sete
*Track Record: Units delivered post 2000
Midwater more than 400’ to less than 4,500’ Deepwater 4,500’ to less than 7,500' Ultra-deepwater 7,500’ or more
FloatersunderConstructionbySegment* YardMarketShareofOngoingNBprojects*
Contracted Uncontracted Total
Owner DS SS DS SS Con- Uncon-
Atwood 2 2
Socar 1 1
COSL 1* 1
DSME 1 1
Ensco 1 1
CIMC Bluewhale Rig 1 1
Hyundai HI 2* 2
Keppel FELS 1 1
North Atlantic Drilling 1* 1
North Sea Rigs 3* 3
Ocean Rig 3 3
Opus Offshore 3 3
Samsung 1 1
Seadrill 4 1 5
Stena 1* 1
Sonangol 2 2
Transocean 2 2 2 2
Total 2 1 20 10 3 30
Sete Brasil Contractors**
DS SS
Etesco
CONTRACTS
CANCELLED
5
Odebrecht 4 1
Odfjell Galvao 3
Petroserv 2
Queiroz Galvao 3
Seadrill 3
Sete Brasil 8
Total Brazil Contractors 23 6
Semisubmersible&Drillship(33units) Semisubmersible(11units) Drillship(22units)
*Excluding Brasil
Source:BassoeResearch,ShipyardsandIHSPetrodata
RigStatusbyAssetClass
#168
#75
#40
40,5%
45,0%
31,1%
Bassoe Offshore AS
Analysis of Floaters under construc�on— March 2017
Oslo—Houston—London—Rio—Dubai
www.bassoe.no
• Whilethereremainadownwardspressureonthenewbuildpriceduetolackoforderingactivity,weseethatthetrendcurvecontinues�latten.
• Trendamongstthesuppliers/yardsaretoidentifyimpro-vementsindrillingef�icency/riglayoutanddevelopofHPHTand20KPSItechnology.
Price* Trend
Area DS SS DS SS
Korea 415 435 Q2’19 Q3’19
Singapore 425 425 Q3’19 Q3’19
China 400 405 Q1’20 Q1’20
Next Delivery Slot
New Build Prices
Floaters Under Construction—Delivery Pro8ile (excl. Brazil)
• 33unitsarescheduledtobedeliveredwithinQ22021.
• 3ofthesehavetermcontractsreported.
• Weestimatethatanadditional4-6unitswillbedeliveredbytheBrazilianyardswithinthesameperiod.
• TheSS«URCA»andDS«COPACABANA»,underconstruc-tioninBrazil(Keppel/Jurong),aresubstantiallycomple-ted, however, delivery is pending ongoing discussionswithSETE/PBRAS.
• The�irstofthreeNorthSeaRigs,the«NORTHDRAGON»,was reported scheduled for delivery by year end 2016,however,deferraldiscussionscontinueasnotermcon-tract hasbeen secured for the rig and thenewdeliverydateisnowscheduledbeginningofQ22017.
Historical New Build Prices* BO Estimated New Build Price & Delivery
Theoretical New Build Price
• Drilling&Subseaequipment -27%
• Marineequipment -20%
• Otherequipment -15%
• Steel -8%
• Labour -18%
• Yardoperatingmargin -25%
BOEstimatedNewBuildDrillshipPrice(incl.2ndBOP) Assumptions
• AssumptionsarebasedondiscussionswithsuppliersaswellasBassoeOffshoreinvolvementincurrentnew-buildingprojects.
• Majorityofthecostsavingsaretobefoundwiththemainsuppliers-notattheyards.
• Continueddownwardspressureonequipmentprices.
*12,000ft�loaterdesign,1xBOP,out�itted10,000ft,1,250/1,000tshook,semi-automatedpackage,180/210pax.
Reduc�on Since Q1 2014 Trend $580
$451
12,000ftdrillshipdesign,2xBOP,out�itted10,000ft,1,250/1,000tshook,semi-automatedpackage,210pax.
Bassoe Offshore AS
Analysis of Floaters under construc�on— March 2017
Oslo—Houston—London—Rio—Dubai
www.bassoe.no
Oslo London Houston Rio Dubai
Address:
Indekshuset Solli Plass
Henrik Ibsens gt 100 7th floor
0124 Oslo
Norway
Address:
5 Jubilee Place,
Floor 3
London SW3 3DT
United Kingdom
Address:
2000 West Loop South
Suite 2110
Houston, TX 77027
USA
Address:
Av Rio Branco 245
Suite 1001
20040-009
Rio de Janeiro
Brazil
Address:
Reef Tower JLT
P.O. Box 115738
Dubai
UAE
Tel: +47 23 00 10 00 Tel : +44 207 352 0496 Tel: +1 713 850 9002 Tel : +55 21 2524 4872 Tel : +971 44487591
Erland Bassoe
Hans Hagelberg
Stefan Panduro
Joao Luis Phillips
Chris Hand
Contact Informa�on | Bassoe Offshore
DeliveriesreportedsinceJanuary15th2017
Cancellation Owner Yard Name Type Design Org. Delivery Yard Price
10.2015 Paci�ic Drilling Samsung Paci�ic Zonda Drillship SHI 96K 03.2015 ~520 mill.
10.2015 Fred Olsen Hyundai Bollsta Dolphin Semi CS-60 N-Class 03.2015 ~620 mill.
09.2015 Seadrill Hyundai West Mira Semi CS-60 N-Class 12.2014 ~570 mill.
08.2015 Vantage DSME Cobalt Explorer Drillship DSME 12000 08.2015 ~595 mill.
Cancellations Reported Since January 2015 (excl. Brazil)
Owner Yard Name Type Order Org. Delivery New Delivery Deferred (months)
Transocean Jurong TBN1 Drillship 02.2014 05.2017 01.2020 32
Transocean Jurong TBN2 Drillship 02.2014 02.2018 10.2020 32
Transocean DSME Deepwater Pontus Drillship 09.2012 06.2016 06.2017 12
Transocean DSME Deepwater Poseidon Drillship 09.2012 12.2016 12.2017 12
ENSCO Samsung DS-10 Drillship 06.2013 09.2015 03.2019 42 (+24)
Seadrill Jurong West Rigel Semi 02.2014 01.2015 07.2017 30 (+6)
Seadrill Samsung West Draco Drillship 07.2013 09.2015 03.2017 18
Seadrill Samsung West Dorado Drillship 07.2013 12.2015 03.2017 15
Seadrill DSME West Aquila Drillship 07.2013 09.2015 04.2018 32
Seadrill DSME West Libra Drillship 07.2013 12.2015 01.2019 37
Seadrill COSCO Sevan Developer Semi 04.2011 06.2014 04.2017 34
Ocean Rig Samsung Ocean Rig Santorini Drillship 08.2013 12.2015 06.2018 30
Ocean Rig Samsung Ocean Rig Crete Drillship 04.2014 02.2017 01.2019 23
Ocean Rig Samsung Ocean Rig Amorgos Drillship 04.2014 06.2017 08.2020 38
Atwood DSME Atwood Admiral Drillship 09.2012 03.2015 09.2019 54
Atwood DSME Atwood Archer Drillship 06.2013 12.2015 06.2020 54
Stena Drilling Samsung StenaMidMAX Semi 06.2013 04.2016 09.2017 17
Sonangol DSME Libongas Drillship 10.2013 12.2015 06.2017 18
Sonangol DSME Quenguela Drillship 10.2013 03.2016 12.2018 33
North Sea Rigs CIMC Beacon Atlantic Semi 01.2014 12.2016 12.2017 12
Bluewhale Offshore CIMC Bluewhale II Semi 01.2013 06.2016 09.2017 15
Total (Rig Years) ~49
North Sea Rigs CIMC North Dragon Semi 06.2013 12.2016 04.2017 4 (+4)
Reported Delivery Deferrals Since January 2015 (excl. Brazil)
NOTE: The «Standstill Agreement» between North Atlantic Drilling and Jurong for the HE Semi WEST RIGEL, is not recorded as a cancellation.
NOTE: BOLD text represents changes since previous month report.
Owner Yard Type Name Design Ordered Reported Price Employment Contract
Bluewhale Offshore CIMC Raf�les SS Bluewhale I Frigstad D90 31.12.13 USD 650 M 4 Months/CPOE/South China Sea
