Stunning Progress, Hidden Problems: The Dramatic Decline of Concentrated Poverty in the 1990s Paul...
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Transcript of Stunning Progress, Hidden Problems: The Dramatic Decline of Concentrated Poverty in the 1990s Paul...
Stunning Progress, Hidden Problems: The Dramatic Decline of Concentrated Poverty in the 1990s
Paul A. Jargowsky
University of Texas at Dallas
May 19, 2003
The Spatial Dimension of Poverty• Poverty at individual/family level vs.
geographical distribution of poverty• High-poverty neighborhoods
– Spill over to schools– Negative influences, lack of positive role
models– Networks and information flows
• Public policy issues– Neighborhood effects, esp. kids– Alienation from mainstream of society
Methodology
• Census “long form” data from 1990 and 2000
• Census tracts are proxies for neighborhoods
• Family poverty measured using federal poverty rate
• A high-poverty neighborhood is a census tract with a poverty rate of 40% or higher
• Metropolitan areas are the key unit of analysis
The 1970 to 1990 Story (Previous Research)
• Huge increases in size of ghettos and barrios– % of poor in neighborhoods with poverty rate of 40%
or more
– Census tracts as proxies for neighborhoods
• Economy has huge effect, but it was flat to positive over 1970 to 1990
• Racial segregation also matters, but improving over this time period.
• There must be something else....
Suburban Development• Outer ring suburbs growing rapidly• Highest income persons move out, middle
income fill in behind.• Process filters down, with poor left behind
in central cities.• Suburbs and slums are the most visible
manifestations of a development dynamic that favors rapid, highly-exclusionary patterns of housing development.
What about 2000 Census?• Strong economy, peaked in April 2000 (so the
2000 Census is already out of date!)• Policies to deconcentrate poverty (Hope VI,
Section 8, etc., maybe even welfare reform)• Expected declines in percentage of poor living in
high-poverty neighborhoods.• Didn’t expect much real change in the number of
census tracts above 40% poverty• Expected some gentrification, but expected it
would it be “islands of renewal in seas of decay”• Sometimes it’s good to be wrong!
Poverty Became Less Concentrated
• Nationwide, the number of high-poverty neighborhoods declined by 27 percent, from 3,417 in 1990 to 2,510 in 2000 (out of about 60,000 total neighborhoods).
• The population of high-poverty areas declined by 24 percent, from 10.4 million to 7.9 million.
High-Poverty Neighborhoods and High-Poverty Neighborhood Population, U.S. Metropolitan
Areas, 1970-2000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1970 1980 1990 2000
Hig
h-P
ove
rty
Nei
gh
bo
rho
od
s
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Hig
h-P
overty N
eigh
bo
rho
od
Po
pu
lation
(1000s)
Number of High-Poverty Neighborhoods High-Poverty Neighborhood Population (thousands)
Based on metropolitan areas as defined in year of census.
White24%
Black39%
Asian4%
Hispanic29%
Other4%
2000
Most Residents of High-Poverty Areas are Members of Minority Groups
Population of High-Poverty Neighborhoods by Region, 1990-2000
2,526
4,712
1,374
3,077
1,6721,328
1,829 1,823
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Northeast (-0.3%)
Midwest (-45.6%)
South (-34.7%)
West (+25.9%)
Po
pu
lati
on
(th
ou
san
ds)
1990 2000
Percentage Change in Population of High-Poverty Neighborhoods by State, 1990-2000
> 50% Decrease
25% to 50% Decrease
0% to 25% Decrease
0% to 25% Increase
25% to 50% Increase
> 50% Increase
Change, 1990-2000
The Advance and Retreat of Detroit’s High-Poverty Ghetto
• The animation on the following page shows the high-poverty zone in Detroit from 1970 to 2000.
• Red tones indicate high-poverty areas – census tracts with poverty rates above 40 percent.
• Green tones are low or moderate poverty areas.
• After decades of increases, Detroit had a dramatic reduction in the size and population of the high poverty area.
Poverty Level:Detroit Neighborhoods1970-2000
1970
Poverty Level:Detroit Neighborhoods1970-2000
1980
Poverty Level:Detroit Neighborhoods1970-2000
1990
Poverty Level:Detroit Neighborhoods1970-2000
2000
1970
Poverty Level:Milwaukee Neighborhoods1970-2000
Poverty Level:Milwaukee Neighborhoods1970-2000
1980
Poverty Level:Milwaukee Neighborhoods1970-2000
1990
Poverty Level:Milwaukee Neighborhoods1970-2000
2000
Los Angeles: a different
story
1990 2000 Chg
Tracts 56 137 +81Concentration White 4.3 5.1 +0.8 Black 17.3 21.3 +4.1 Hispanic 9.1 16.9 +7.8
1990 2000
Washington,D. C.
1990
Washington,D. C.
2000
The Concentration of Poverty
• Until now, looking at total population of high-poverty neighborhoods
• Much concern about specific effects of concentration on the poor
• Concentration of poverty defined as the percent of the total poor in an area that resides in high-poverty neighborhoods
Concentration of U.S. Poor by Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2000
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
White Black Hispanic American Indian Asian
Per
cen
tag
e o
f P
oo
r in
Hig
h-P
ove
rty
Nei
gh
bo
rho
od
s
1990 2000 Percentage Point Change
“Suburbs” had the Smallest Improvements
1990 2000 Change
Black Poor
Central Cities 39.6 25.9 -11.8
Suburbs 10.6 5.7 -4.9
Non-Metro 20.7 9.9 -10.8
Hispanic Poor
Central Cities 27.2 13.8 -7.4
Suburbs 10.6 8.0 -2.6
Non-Metro 18.3 7.0 -11.3
Returning to Detroit MSA, Poverty in 2000
Change in Poverty Rates, 1990 to 2000, Detroit MSA
Change in Poverty RatesChicago, 1990-2000
St. Louis
1970-1990 1990-2000
Change in Poverty Rates
Cleveland
1970-1990 1990-2000
Change in Poverty Rates
Dallas
1970-1990 1990-2000
Change in Poverty Rates
Conclusions• A strong economy with low unemployment is incredibly
powerful.• Both the size and population of high-poverty
neighborhoods have declined substantially in most of the country.
• More work needs to be done to assess the relative contribution of the economy, public policies, gentrification, and other factors.
• Central cities have the infrastructure and amenities to withstand and even defeat the sprawl/blight cycle – at least when the economy is strong and policies are supportive.
• The inner-ring of suburbs continue to decline, so rapid exclusionary forms of suburban development are still a concern.
Interactive Web Site:www.urbanpoverty.net
Makes creation of poverty and demographic maps easy for the general public.