Stunning Progress, Hidden Problems: The Dramatic Decline of Concentrated Poverty in the 1990s

Paul A. Jargowsky

University of Texas at Dallas

May 19, 2003

The Spatial Dimension of Poverty• Poverty at individual/family level vs.

geographical distribution of poverty• High-poverty neighborhoods

– Spill over to schools– Negative influences, lack of positive role

models– Networks and information flows

• Public policy issues– Neighborhood effects, esp. kids– Alienation from mainstream of society

Methodology

• Census “long form” data from 1990 and 2000

• Census tracts are proxies for neighborhoods

• Family poverty measured using federal poverty rate

• A high-poverty neighborhood is a census tract with a poverty rate of 40% or higher

• Metropolitan areas are the key unit of analysis

The 1970 to 1990 Story (Previous Research)

• Huge increases in size of ghettos and barrios– % of poor in neighborhoods with poverty rate of 40%

or more

– Census tracts as proxies for neighborhoods

• Economy has huge effect, but it was flat to positive over 1970 to 1990

• Racial segregation also matters, but improving over this time period.

• There must be something else....

Suburban Development• Outer ring suburbs growing rapidly• Highest income persons move out, middle

income fill in behind.• Process filters down, with poor left behind

in central cities.• Suburbs and slums are the most visible

manifestations of a development dynamic that favors rapid, highly-exclusionary patterns of housing development.

What about 2000 Census?• Strong economy, peaked in April 2000 (so the

2000 Census is already out of date!)• Policies to deconcentrate poverty (Hope VI,

Section 8, etc., maybe even welfare reform)• Expected declines in percentage of poor living in

high-poverty neighborhoods.• Didn’t expect much real change in the number of

census tracts above 40% poverty• Expected some gentrification, but expected it

would it be “islands of renewal in seas of decay”• Sometimes it’s good to be wrong!

Poverty Became Less Concentrated

• Nationwide, the number of high-poverty neighborhoods declined by 27 percent, from 3,417 in 1990 to 2,510 in 2000 (out of about 60,000 total neighborhoods).

• The population of high-poverty areas declined by 24 percent, from 10.4 million to 7.9 million.

High-Poverty Neighborhoods and High-Poverty Neighborhood Population, U.S. Metropolitan

Areas, 1970-2000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1970 1980 1990 2000

Hig

h-P

ove

rty

Nei

gh

bo

rho

od

s

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Hig

h-P

overty N

eigh

bo

rho

od

Po

pu

lation

(1000s)

Number of High-Poverty Neighborhoods High-Poverty Neighborhood Population (thousands)

Based on metropolitan areas as defined in year of census.

White24%

Black39%

Asian4%

Hispanic29%

Other4%

2000

Most Residents of High-Poverty Areas are Members of Minority Groups

Population of High-Poverty Neighborhoods by Region, 1990-2000

2,526

4,712

1,374

3,077

1,6721,328

1,829 1,823

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Northeast (-0.3%)

Midwest (-45.6%)

South (-34.7%)

West (+25.9%)

Po

pu

lati

on

(th

ou

san

ds)

1990 2000

Percentage Change in Population of High-Poverty Neighborhoods by State, 1990-2000

> 50% Decrease

25% to 50% Decrease

0% to 25% Decrease

0% to 25% Increase

25% to 50% Increase

> 50% Increase

Change, 1990-2000

The Advance and Retreat of Detroit’s High-Poverty Ghetto

• The animation on the following page shows the high-poverty zone in Detroit from 1970 to 2000.

• Red tones indicate high-poverty areas – census tracts with poverty rates above 40 percent.

• Green tones are low or moderate poverty areas.

• After decades of increases, Detroit had a dramatic reduction in the size and population of the high poverty area.

Poverty Level:Detroit Neighborhoods1970-2000

1970

Poverty Level:Detroit Neighborhoods1970-2000

1980

Poverty Level:Detroit Neighborhoods1970-2000

1990

Poverty Level:Detroit Neighborhoods1970-2000

2000

1970

Poverty Level:Milwaukee Neighborhoods1970-2000

Poverty Level:Milwaukee Neighborhoods1970-2000

1980

Poverty Level:Milwaukee Neighborhoods1970-2000

1990

Poverty Level:Milwaukee Neighborhoods1970-2000

2000

Los Angeles: a different

story

1990 2000 Chg

Tracts 56 137 +81Concentration White 4.3 5.1 +0.8 Black 17.3 21.3 +4.1 Hispanic 9.1 16.9 +7.8

1990 2000

Washington,D. C.

1990

Washington,D. C.

2000

The Concentration of Poverty

• Until now, looking at total population of high-poverty neighborhoods

• Much concern about specific effects of concentration on the poor

• Concentration of poverty defined as the percent of the total poor in an area that resides in high-poverty neighborhoods

Concentration of U.S. Poor by Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2000

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

White Black Hispanic American Indian Asian

Per

cen

tag

e o

f P

oo

r in

Hig

h-P

ove

rty

Nei

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od

s

1990 2000 Percentage Point Change

“Suburbs” had the Smallest Improvements

1990 2000 Change

Black Poor

Central Cities 39.6 25.9 -11.8

Suburbs 10.6 5.7 -4.9

Non-Metro 20.7 9.9 -10.8

Hispanic Poor

Central Cities 27.2 13.8 -7.4

Suburbs 10.6 8.0 -2.6

Non-Metro 18.3 7.0 -11.3

Returning to Detroit MSA, Poverty in 2000

Change in Poverty Rates, 1990 to 2000, Detroit MSA

Change in Poverty RatesChicago, 1990-2000

St. Louis

1970-1990 1990-2000

Change in Poverty Rates

Cleveland

1970-1990 1990-2000

Change in Poverty Rates

Dallas

1970-1990 1990-2000

Change in Poverty Rates

Conclusions• A strong economy with low unemployment is incredibly

powerful.• Both the size and population of high-poverty

neighborhoods have declined substantially in most of the country.

• More work needs to be done to assess the relative contribution of the economy, public policies, gentrification, and other factors.

• Central cities have the infrastructure and amenities to withstand and even defeat the sprawl/blight cycle – at least when the economy is strong and policies are supportive.

• The inner-ring of suburbs continue to decline, so rapid exclusionary forms of suburban development are still a concern.

Interactive Web Site:www.urbanpoverty.net

Makes creation of poverty and demographic maps easy for the general public.