Study Report - Development of Four Decade Long Climate Scenario & Trend Temperature, Rainfall,...

STUDY REPORT

Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP II)

Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief

June 2013

Development of Four Decade LongClimate Scenario & Trend

TEMPERATURE,RAINFALL, SUNSHINE& HUMIDITY

June 2013

Conducted By

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First Published in June 2013

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Copyright @ CDMP II 2013

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Edited by

Sanjib Kumar SahaZD

Mirza Shawkat Ali^

Shaila Shahid^

Cover design/t

Printed by^>Z^D t

Dr. M. Shahjahan MondalW/t&D/t&Dhdhd

Dr. A.K.M. Saiful IslamW/t&D/t&Dhdhd

Malay Krishna MadhuZ

STUDYTEAM

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Mohammad Abdul QayyumEWDWDW//

FOREWORD

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TABLE OF CONTENTS ^ ,WdZ/ W^

,WdZK, / , ^, D, ,WdZ^W& ^ d& ^W& CHAPTER 8: Crop Vulnerability 87 / h^^dD W/z /t /boro /aman ^& ^ ^ ^ ^K2 ^ ^ ^, ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^K2 >Ws , h ,WdZZ Annexure A: Rainfall Data Availability 113 Annexure B: Sunshine Data Availability 121 Annexure C: Humidity Data Availability 123dWZ/^DW Z

LIST OF TABLESd WZ/^ d D d d d d d d d d d d ^ d d dD d d D d d D d d D d d d d d d d d d WZ/^ d d d d d d '

d Ê d Ê d ÊK2 d Ê d Ê d Ê, d Ê d ^boro^ d ^boro^ d ^boroZ^ d ^boroZ^K2

LIST OF FIGURES& d & WZ/^^ ' & > & d & d & d & d & d & ^ & d & d & & >t & & & d & & & d & : & : & & ^ & K & D & ^: & ^: & ^ & ^^ & ^K & ^D & & & d & & ^ & d & & >D & & d & & ^:

& ^: & & d & ^ & & ^ DD & ^ :^ & ^ KE & & & ^ & d & & & & & E & E & Zboro & Zboro & Zaman & Z aman & Z aman & d aman

LIST OF PHOTOSW sWZ W sW Z

ACRONYMSAEZ BMD DBRRI ZZ/BUET hdBWDB t0C CCC CDMP DWCEC CEGIS '/^CNRS EZ^CO2 CSM ^DDoE DSSAT ^^dFAO &KFGD &'GCM 'DGNP 'EWHADCM3 ,DICASA /^IDW /tIPCC /WIWFM /t&DKII

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY > dDD tttDDtdt'/^/t&DD WZ/^WZ/^/t&D/t&D d^^d^^d

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1.1 Background

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CHAPTER1

1.2 Present State of Knowledge

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1.3 Objectived

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1.4 Scope of Workd

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Methodology and Data 2.1 Temporal Trend Analysis

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2.2 Generation of Spatial Trend at Local Level

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2.4 Assessment of Crop Vulnerability

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2.4.1 Tools of DSSAT model

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2.4.1.2 Soil data editord ^^^d d^d d^^^//d

2.4.1.3 Weather data editord tD^^d dtDdtDdtD^d

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2.4.2 Data requirement for DSSAT model

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2.5 Collection of Field Data

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Analysis of Observed Temperatures 3.1 Trend in Mean Temperature

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3.2 Trend in Maximum Temperature

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3.3 Trend in Minimum Temperature

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Analysis of Observed Rainfall 4.1 Introduction

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4.2 Annual Rainfall

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4.3 Seasonal Rainfall

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4.4 Monthly Rainfall

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Annual trend (% of normal)High : 0.81

Low : -0.64

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4.5 Other Rainfall4.5.1 Annual maximum rainfall

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Annual trend (% of normal)High : 0.68

Low: -1.01

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4.5.2 Rainy days

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4.5.4 Consecutive non-rainy days

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4.5.7 Days with 50 mm or more rainfalls

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4.5.8 Days with 100 mm or more rainfalls

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Analysis of Observed Sunshine Duration 5.1 Introduction

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5.3 Seasonal Sunshine Duration

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Analysis of Observed Humidity 6.1 Introduction

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6.3 Seasonal Humidity

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Spatial Pattern of Changes in Future Climate 7.1 Simulation of Baseline (1961-1990) Climate

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CHAPTER7

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7.3 Spatial Patterns of Future Climate

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Crop Vulnerability 8.1 Introduction

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8.2 Data Used in the DSSAT Model

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8.3 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yield

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8.3.1 Impact on Wheat

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8.3.2 Impact on boro rice

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8.3.3 Impact on aman rice

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8.4 Sensitivity Analysis and Further Discussion

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8.4.1 Sensitivity of wheat to different parameters

8.4.1.1 Sensitivity to temperatured,d, d&KKt et. al.

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8.4.1.2 Sensitivity to solar radiationd^,WdEd/tD:2D:2/D:2 d

8.4.1.3 Sensitivity to CO2t K2K2 D K2 tet. al. / dK2EdK2 /W/WtK2E W^K2 /K2dD

8.4.1.4 Sensitivity to sowing datedK/E ^Z// E E E d/E

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8.4.1.5 Sensitivity to irrigation' d /Zddd/dtdWet. al.dt/tKD',zDet. al./

8.4.1.6 Sensitivity to soil pH^,,d,Ed,t,t, d,/,,

8.4.1.7 Sensitivity to organic carbondKEdKd/K, KtKKdK

8.4.1.8 Sensitivity to cation exchange capacity and total nitrogenddE&dEdE

8.4.2 Sensitivity of rice to different parameters

8.4.2.1 Sensitivity to temperaturedd, KKKK K ^ KKKKdKKKKK&

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8.5.3 Upland area

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Conclusions and Recommendations9.1 Conclusions

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CHAPTER9

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Rainfall DataAvailability

ANNEXUREA

Sunshine DataAvailability

ANNEXUREB

Humidity DataAvailability

ANNEXUREC

The PRECIS Model Predicted Climate

ANNEXURED

&during the boro season

&Nawabganj during the boro season

&Chapai Nawabganj during the boro season

Figure D7: Climate model Chapai Nawabganj during the boro season

Figure D8: Climate model maximum temperature at Satkhira during the boro season

&in monthly minimum temperature at Satkhira during the boro season

Figure D10: Climate model ^during the boro season

Figure D11: Climate model maximum temperature at Sunamganj during the boro season

Figure D12: Climate model minimum temperature at Sunamganj during the boro season

Figure D13: Climate model ^during the boro season

Figure D14: Climate model maximum temperature at Rajbari during the T. aman season

Figure D15: Climate model minimum temperature at Rajbari during the T. aman season

&Zduring the T. aman season

Figure D17: Climate model d aman season

Figure D18: Climate model maximum temperature at Chapai Nawabganj duringthe T. aman season

&minimum temperature at Chapai Nawabganj during the T. aman season

Figure D20: Climate model Nawabganj during the T. aman season

Figure D21: Climate model maximum temperature at Satkhira during the T. aman season

Figure D22: Climate model minimum temperature at Satkhira during the T. aman season

Figure D23: Climate model ^during the T. aman season

Figure D24: Climate model maximum temperature at Sunamganj during the T. aman season

Figure D25: Climate model minimum temperature at Sunamganj during the T. aman season

&^during the T. aman season

Figure D27: Climate model maximum temperature at Rajbari during the wheat season

Figure D28: Climate model minimum temperature at Rajbari during the wheat season

&Zduring the wheat season

Figure D30: Climate model season

Figure D31: Climate model maximum temperature at Chapai Nawabganj during the wheat season

Figure D32: Climate model minimum temperature at Chapai Nawabganj during the wheat season

Figure 33: Climate model Nawabganj during the wheat season

Figure D34: Climate model maximum temperature at Satkhira during the wheat season

Figure D35: Climate model minimum temperature at Satkhira during the wheat season

&^during the wheat season

Figure D37: Climate model maximum temperature at Sunamganj during the wheat season

Figure D38: Climate model minimum temperature at Sunamganj during the wheat season

&^during the wheat season

REFERENCES

/ D/EZ&

EDK&'/tEtD/DDzd

Y

Haan d ^ d/^hW/h^

,D,DD'Z/D^d:Z

,DY,,DD/D^K/W^DW/

Mondal, M.S., Nasrin, F., Zaman, S. and Hossain, M.M.A.H. > W/t &DK / t &D D

Mondal, M.S. and Wasimi, S.A. /' /ZDDD:DDs h hWd/t&DK/t&D:

Oosterhuis, D.M. and Cartwright, P.M. ^ ^

Pathak, H., Ladha, J.K., Aggarwal, P.K., Peng, S., Das, S., Singh, Y., Singh, B., Kamara, S.K., Mishra, B., Sastri, A.S., Aggarwal, H.P., Das, D.K. and Gupta, R.K. d/'&Z

Peng, S., Huang, J., Sheehy, J.E., Laza, R.E., Visperas, R.M., Zhong, X., Centeno, G.S., Khush, G.S. and Cassman, K.G. 2004. ZW E^h^

WD >tW^ //>h /

/ / Z ^ Z t ' // /WhWh

Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)

Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP II)

Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief

Study Report - Development of Four Decade Long Climate Scenario & Trend Temperature, Rainfall,...

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