Strategy for developing a CO2 reduction policy in Europe

Nikolas Hill, Knowledge Leader ‐ Transport Technology and Fuels, AEA

8th Diesel Emissions Conference & AdBlue Forum Europe 2012, 30 May – 1 June 2012, Hilton Düsseldorf

nikolas.hill@aeat.co.uk+44 (0)870 190 6490

Outline

1) The current situation in Europe

Reduction and testing of GHG emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles (funded by EC DG Climate Action):

2) LOT 1: assess the amount and reduction potential of GHG emissions from HDVs– Task 1: Vehicle Market and Fleet– Task 2: Fuel Use and CO2 emissions

– Task 3: Technology– Task 4: Policy Assessment

3) LOT 2: propose a method to quantify such emissions for whole vehicles as well as for vehicle components

4) Next steps: “LOT 3” and developing a CO2 reduction policy2

+ Political commitment to reduce emissions by 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050

+ Roadmap for low carbon economy:– Overall -80% reduction in emissions by 2050– Transport sector foreseen to reduce emissions

between -54 and -67% by 2050

+ White Paper on Transport targets -60% reduction in emissions by 2050 (Base 1990); 20% by 2030 (Base 2008)Þ HDV 40% improvement in energy efficiency by 2050

Reducing HDV fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in the EU policy context

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+ In the last couple of decades improvements in truck fuel economy appear to have reduced relative to previous historical trends…

Historical context for European truck fuel efficiency

4Source: Presentation by Christophe Pavret de La Rochefordière, EC DG Climate Action, Preparing a strategy for reducing HDV fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, ICCT Workshop, 10 November 2011, Brussels

+ Road transport CO2 emissions not included in EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)

+ Existing regulations setting CO2 targets for:

– Cars (Reg. 443/2009), and – Vans (Reg. 510/2011)

+ Currently no legislation setting targets for HDV CO2 emissions

+ Current test cycle procedures are on engine basis (e.g. for regulation air pollutant emissions), not whole vehicle

+ In addition a number of existing & proposed EU legislation and programmes are already expected to contribute lowering HDV CO2 emissions

Regulatory situation in Europe

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Reduction and testing of GHG emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles: Outline and Objectives

Project work split into two lots. The objectives of the two lots were to: Lot 1 (Lead – AEA): assess the amount and reduction potential

of GHG emissions from HDVs, and to Lot 2 (Lead – TU Graz): propose a method to quantify such

emissions for whole vehicles as well as for vehicle components.

Lot 1: Strategy Support Objective

The service contract is to provide the Commission's services with technical assistance in the area of reducing GHG emissions from HDVs (passengers and freight).

+Task 1: Vehicle Market and Fleet+Task 2: Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions

+Task 3: Technology+Task 4: Policy Assessment

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EU market is dominated by 7 major European HDV manufacturers• 93% EU registrations and ~40% total worldwide production

• ~75% bus and coach market served by these manufacturers

Trailer/bodybuilders: 1000s organisations; 7 orgs = ~60% market

HDV market highly complicated compared to LDVs• Final configuration (and performance) results from a chain of organisations

• Final vehicle specification often bespoke/unique to fit particular application/cycle, with a wide variety of different auxiliary equipment utilised

• Road tractor and semi-trailer pulled often owned by different organisations

Data characterising the # and distribution of HDV operators across EU is not collected in any standard format, and is very difficult to locate • 60% of the freight tonne km in the EU are associated with longer distance trips

• Most freight operators smaller in size, with 85% having fewer than 10 vehicles

• HoR operations >85% tonne km, travel longer distances vs Own Account. HoR operations also purchase and own the majority of road tractors (# increasing)

• Total fleet and average fleet size of bus companies > coaches

Fuel represents about 30% of operating costs

LOT1: The European Vehicle Market and Fleet

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Increase in % larger/heavier trucks since 1995; increase in % <16t buses:

Source: Based on datasets from ACEA (2010) and Eurostat (2010)

Notes: AEA have estimated the split of registrations by combining ACEA/Eurostat data

LOT1: New vehicle market size and structure (EU27) -Registrations of heavy duty vehicles by gross vehicle weight

Rigid Trucks

<16t27.7%

Rigid Trucks

>16t33.8%

Road Tractors

38.5%

2008

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Buseses and

Coaches <16t

40.3%

Buses and

Coaches >16t

59.7%

2008

Estimation of split by broad mission profile using data from ACEA Other datasets on body types also utilised (e.g. refrigerated 7-10%

of total)

Source: AEA estimates based on dataset provided by ACEA (2010)

Notes: Average for sales between 2000 and 2009

LOT1: New vehicle market size and structure (EU27) - Registrations of trucks by mission profile

Service /Delivery (3.5-7.5t)

29.4%

Urban Delivery

/Collection10.6%

Municipal Utility10.7%

Regional Delivery

/Collection14.7%

Long Haul19.6%

Construc-tion

15.0%

Rigid Trucks

Regional Delivery

/Collection30.2%

Long Haul54.9%

Construc-tion

14.9%

Articulated Trucks

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LOT1: Technology Assessment

Technologies in the drivetrain and vehicle (body/trailer) categories can have a large impact on fuel consumptionÞ Hybrids, dual fuel, lightweighting, automatic tyre pressure

monitoring, automated transmission, aerodynamics, low rolling resistance tyres, heat recovery, etc

For conventionally fuelled vehicles on urban duty cycles with frequent stop/start behaviour hybrid vehicles offer the highest benefit (savings 20-30%)

For HDVs on regional/long-haul missions, greatest benefits from powertrain improvements and aerodynamics Þ Aerodynamic aids (e.g. bodies/trailers) offer potentially great

benefits of 10% reduction (and more)

Benefits of technologies are not always cumulative

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Results illustrate:• Increase of fuel consumption/CO2 emissions in BAU of 15% from 2010

to 2030• Importance of long-haul activity in total emissions due to higher activity

levels• Service/delivery and urban delivery vehicles relatively low impact vs

numbers• Buses and coaches share decreasing to 2030

LOT1: BAU Projections on Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2010 2020 2030

HD

V E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n,

PJ

Coaches

Buses

Construction

Long Haul

Regional Delivery

Utility

Urban Delivery

Service /Delivery (3.5-7.5t)

Service /Delivery (3.5-7.5t)

12.8% Urban Delivery

3.7%Utility5.2%

Regional Delivery13.9%

Long Haul37.1%

Construction

12.5%

Buses8.7%

Coaches6.3%

HDV Energy Consumption 2010

LOT1: Scenario analysis - to reduce HDV CO2 emissions below 2010 levels by 2030, challenging technology uptake rates are required

+ Cost effective scenario reduction of 6% in 2030 compared to BAU+ Challenging scenario reduction of 15% in 2030 compared to BAU+ Challenging technology uptake levels needed to reduce direct CO2/ LC GHG vs 2010

+ Similar results found in alternative analysis carried out by TIAX funded for ICCT (2011)

Assessment of possible future reduction in total EU fuel consumption and GHG emissions from HDVs

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2010 2020 2030

HD

V D

irec

t G

HG

Em

issi

on

s, T

on

nes

CO

2e

Direct CO2 Emissions

BAU

Cost Effective

Challenging

Cost Effective Scenario: commercially acceptable payback period

Challenging Scenario: maximum feasible reduction

LOT1: Policy Analysis

Performance requirements for vehicles and their componentsÞ Potential benefits, stimulate technologies. Need a methodology to assess CO2

emissions

Driver training, dissemination of best practisesÞ CO2 reduction benefits, at least in short-term, at relatively small financial outlay

Reduction in speed for heavy duty vehiclesÞ Implication on logistics

Changes to weights legislationÞ Rebound effects to be considered: intermodal transfer and infrastructure changes

Changes to dimensions legislationÞ Positive when allowing aerodynamics appliances

Emissions tradingÞ E.g. upstream (on fuel suppliers) and closed (for HDV only)

Taxation measures: fuel, road user charges, vehicle cost incentivesÞ Most attractive option but also most politically sensitive

Complementary instruments to enhance benefits or mitigate rebound effects, e.g.Þ Labelling of vehicles or components, withÞ Vehicle purchase taxes or incentives

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HDV market is complex: significant diversity in final vehicle specification, use. European manufacturers dominate EU market, are significant players globally

Vast majority road freight associated with longer distance trips transported primarily by hire or reward operators with relatively small fleet sizes

HDVs are load carrying vehicles with considerable range in size/application, so any developed standards should reflect this further work in LOT 2

Results of the technology development /uptake modelling analysis show: • In the BAU Scenario, energy consumption / GHG emissions rise 15% by

2030• Analysis shows only by challenging technology uptake levels can the

continual increase in GHG emissions be reduced below 2010 levels by 2030

High level policy assessment following the EC Impact Assessment Guidelines of identified instruments applicable to the EU.Þ Summary assessment of shortlisted policies; prioritisation not possible as cost-

effectiveness/GHG reduction potential depends on detail of the instrument (outside scope)

The project scope did not include modelling of a range of important options that may offer significant opportunities for further FC/GHG reductionsÞ Improved auxiliaries and fuels, regulations on vehicle dimensions/weight,

impacts of speed controls or reductions, road infrastructure measures, operational measures, ITS…

LOT1: Summary and Final Conclusions

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The approaches explored by the project were:• Model simulation• Measurement on chassis dynamometer• Measurement with PEMS (Portable Emissions Measurement

Systems)

Methodology considers: engine, driving resistances of whole vehicle, gearbox, most relevant auxiliaries

Preferred option: model simulation with post-verification of model parameters via measurement

LOT2: Measurement methodology for CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of HDV

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gCO2 per km, t-km or m3-km

A

LOT2: Proposed test procedure for HDVs

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In total 10 HDV CO2 /fuel consumption test cycles:

Total HDV classes:• 18 truck classes• 6 bus and coach classes

Bodies and trailers (influence aerodynamic drag), either:• Standard bodies and

trailers defined, with Δ(Cd*A) measured for alternatives, or

• “Reference body” selected by OEM within size class, with Δ(Cd*A) measured vs this

LOT2: Vehicle Segmentation

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Mission Cycle AcronymHeavy Trucks  Long Haul LHRegional Delivery RDUrban Delivery UDMunicipal Utility MUConstruction CSHeavy Passenger Vehicles  Heavy Urban HUUrban URSuburban SUInterurban IUCoach COAll HDV  Common Short Test Cycle CST

“LOT3”: New DG CLIMA Service Request Objectives:• Develop a demonstrator simulation tool to be used for the

validation exercise, building upon the output from LOT2 project

• Further develop the proposed computer simulation method to cover all relevant categories of HDV vehicles

• Participate in the demonstrator simulation tool validation exercise and actively support the Commission in managing it

• Prepare and propose to the Commission the text for an HDV CO2 certification procedure based on use of the simulation test methodology compatible with existing type approval procedures as well as with other relevant EU legislation

• Develop and propose quality management procedures to be used in and after the certification procedure to check whether the procedure delivers solid results

Þ In consultation with stakeholders

“LOT3”: Future Commission Work / Next Steps (1)

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Completed HDV CO2 simulation procedure will minimise test burden and incentivise use of efficient technologies

Other new policy actions being considered including: HDV labelling Establishment of emission reduction objectives Economic instruments Design/ performance requirements for

components Measures targeted at HDV purchase and use

Ongoing Impact Assessment to be concluded end 2012

HDV CO2 Emissions Strategy adoption by Commission is expected in the first half of 2013 (tentative)

“LOT3”: Future Commission Work / Next Steps (2)

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AEANikolas HillKnowledge Leader – Transport Technology and Fuels

AEAThe Gemini BuildingFermi AvenueHarwell, Didcot,OX11 0QRUnited Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)870 190 6490E: nikolas.hill@aeat.co.uk W: www.aeat.co.uk

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