Chapter 8 Presidential Leadership Section 1: Presidential Powers.
Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Campaign Christopher Arterton Dean of the GSPM
description
Transcript of Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Campaign Christopher Arterton Dean of the GSPM
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Campaign
Christopher ArtertonDean of the GSPM
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Definition of Strategy in Electoral Politics
A road map defining an objective* and
specifying the means* to achieve it
* Precision and concreteness matter!
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Elements of Strategy in Electoral Politics
1. Goals – coalition of voters to support candidacy
2. Available Resources – money, staff, volunteers
3. Deployment of Scarce Resources
4. Messages
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Messaging in Electoral Politics
POLICIES: Proposals advanced by candidate
IMAGES: Unique qualities of candidate
NARRATIVE: Unique history of candidate
FRAME: Question to be decided by election
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
McCain’s General Election Strategy (A)
Goals:
• Unify party particularly social conservatives • Reach toward undecided voters in middle• Attract women disaffected by treatment of
Clinton• Focus on “Bush states” from 2000 and 2004
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
McCain’s General Election Strategy (B)
Resources:
• Federal Public Funding: $84 million • RNC Party Funds: $150 Million (?)• Party committees in “Red States”• Choice of Vice-Presidential Running
Mate• Highly Centralized Campaign Structure
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
McCain’s General Election Strategy (C)
Messaging:
• “Mavericks” will reform Washington • National Security Expertise: “Country First”• Obama: Cultural “Celebrity” (Not Leader)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ocngIAeXjQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id1IKJGVkvg
4. Obama: Untested and Inexperienced5. Obama: “Tax-and-Spend Liberal” 6. Obama: “Un-American”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Obama’s General Election Strategy (A)
Goals:
• Unify party particularly Clinton supporters • Reach toward undecided voters (“Change
Election”)• Mobilize Young Voters (18 to 30)• Increase African-American & Hispanic turnout• 35 states = multiple paths to Electoral College
victory
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Obama’s General Election Strategy (B)
Resources:
• Ability to raise money ($151 Million in September)
• Three million plus on mybarackobama.com• Organization built during primary campaign• Wholly owned campaign organization • Cohesive structure of “insurgent” campaign• 80% of public believing nation on “wrong track”
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Obama’s General Election Strategy (C)
Messaging:
• “Change we can believe in” • “Yes we can!” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTji3oiUKnA
• Middle-class tax cut http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BDyz4J-QA
• Jobs, healthcare, environment, energy independence
• McCain = Bush http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PluoMotgl2w
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Competing Frames: McCain
This election is about
► effective, experienced leadership; a genuine hero
► a choice for “mavericks” that can and will change
Washington (except in matters of national security)
► choosing a team that will put “Country First”
► times are too critical to elect Obama
an untested, unknown leader
with liberal policies, and
ties to radical elements
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Competing Frames: Obama
This election is about
► Change … change we can believe in
► Uniting Americans in a quest: “we are all one people”
► “This is our time” (for greatness): generational shift
► Republican policies have produced the economic crisis
► McCain equals third term for Bush
► Choosing a candidate that embodies change & progress
low key persona and moderate policies
bi-partisan approaches to public policy
the first African-American president
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Electoral College Results 2004 and 2008
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
BATTLEGROUND 2008 Tracking Poll
October 23, October 26 - October 29, 2008
N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
40%39%39%39%40%40%40%41% 41%42%41%
42%43%43%42%43%43%
42%41% 41%45%
47%48%48%47%47%45%46%45%
43%43% 45%45%44%45%45%45%44%
43%44%44%41%
11%12%12%13%12%12%12%12%13%13%14%14%13%12%12%11%12%14%13%14%14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 45% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 42% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40%
Obama 41% 44% 44% 43% 44% 45% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% 45% 46% 45% 45% 45% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47%
Barr 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nader 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Unsure 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%
Week 1
Week 2
9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15
UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
25%
44%40%
16%
9% 9% 9%11% 11%
8%
24%24%22%26%25%
20%
31%
22%
41%44% 45%
43%41%
35%35%
25%20%22% 22%
19%21%17%
28%24%
18%
7%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Very Satisfied 22% 20% 31% 25% 26% 22% 24% 24% 25%
Somewhat Satisfied 35% 35% 41% 43% 44% 45% 41% 44% 40%
Somewhat Dissatisfied 24% 28% 17% 21% 19% 22% 22% 20% 25%
Very Dissatisfied 18% 16% 7% 9% 9% 9% 11% 11% 8%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for president this year -- are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?WILL BRING CHANGE TO WASHINGTON
28%28%28%28%
32%
29%
34%
59%58% 57%61%
57%55%52%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
McCain 34% 32% 29% 28% 28% 28% 28%
Obama 52% 55% 57% 61% 58% 57% 59%
9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?IS A STRONG LEADER
46%45%
43%
46%46%
50%52%
51%48%
44%43%
46%
41%43%
41%
37%37%
43%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 48% 52% 51% 50% 46% 46% 43% 45% 46%
Obama 43% 37% 37% 41% 41% 43% 46% 43% 44%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?WILL CREATE JOBS*
51% 51%
37%36%
33%32%34%
38%39% 39%
33%
53%52%
55%
49%47%
48%
54%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 33% 39% 39% 38% 34% 32% 33% 36% 37%
Obama 54% 48% 47% 49% 52% 55% 53% 51% 51%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?KEEPING AMERICA SAFE AND SECURE
55%56%
52%
57%55% 55%57%
37%39%37%35%37%36%33%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 57% 55% 55% 57% 52% 56% 55%
Obama 33% 36% 37% 35% 39% 37% 37%
9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Obama?WILL KEEP AMERICA PROSPEROUS
45%
48%
40%39%
37%36%38%
41%
43% 43%
41%
47%46%
49%
45%44%43%
47%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 41% 43% 43% 41% 38% 36% 37% 39% 40%
Obama 47% 43% 44% 45% 46% 49% 47% 45% 48%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Obama?WILL UNITE THE COUNTRY
32%
52% 53%
33%32%33%34%
37%36%
39%
33%
52%52% 53%
49%47%
50%
53%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 33% 36% 39% 37% 34% 33% 32% 33% 32%
Obama 53% 50% 47% 49% 52% 53% 52% 52% 53%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?FIGHTS FOR PEOPLE LIKE ME
38%
53% 52%
38%
35%35%37%
39%39%42%
33%
53%52% 53%51%
48%48%
53%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 33% 39% 42% 39% 37% 35% 35% 38% 38%
Obama 53% 48% 48% 51% 52% 53% 53% 53% 52%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?SHARES YOUR VALUES
44%43%
40%42%
43%45%
46%
45%
43%
47%47%
50%
47%
50%
46%46%
43%
46%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 43% 46% 45% 45% 43% 42% 40% 43% 44%
Obama 46% 43% 46% 46% 47% 50% 50% 47% 47%
5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is African American?
7% 7% 6% 6%
20%21%22%21%19%20%
18%18%
30%27%27%
30%
31%
27%
32%
27%
32%34%
29%
32%32%35%
31%
37%
6% 5%6%7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Extremely comfortable 18% 20% 18% 19% 21% 22% 21% 20%
Very Comfortable 27% 32% 27% 31% 27% 30% 27% 30%
Somewhat Comfortable 37% 31% 35% 32% 32% 29% 34% 32%
Not at all Comfortable 7% 6% 6% 5% 7% 7% 6% 6%
8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is 72 years old?
16%
24%21%
23%
9%9%8%9%7%
9% 10%11%
16%14%
18%16%17%18%
19%
43%43%39%
42%40%40%39%40%
24%21%25%25%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Extremely comfortable 11% 9% 10% 7% 9% 8% 9% 9%
Very Comfortable 19% 18% 17% 16% 14% 18% 16% 16%
Somewhat Comfortable 40% 39% 40% 40% 42% 39% 43% 43%
Not at all Comfortable 27% 25% 21% 25% 24% 24% 21% 23%
8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate – John McCain, or Barack Obama -- do you think is running a more negative campaign?
13%9% 7% 8% 8% 7%
19% 21% 19%
57%52%
56%53%
47%42% 44%
50%
15%14% 14%13%12%12%
10%
4%4%4%6%4%5%9%9%8%10%
11%
28%32%
20%21%
28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
McCain 50% 42% 44% 47% 53% 56% 52% 57%
Both 10% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 15% 13%
Neither / No difference 9% 9% 5% 4% 6% 4% 4% 4%
Undecided 11% 10% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7%
Obama 21% 28% 32% 28% 20% 19% 21% 19%
8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
40%39%39%39%40%40%40%41% 41%42%41%
42%43%43%42%43%43%
42%41% 41%45%
47%48%48%47%47%45%46%45%
43%43% 45%45%44%45%45%45%44%
43%44%44%41%
11%12%12%13%12%12%12%12%13%13%14%14%13%12%12%11%12%14%13%14%14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 45% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 42% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40%
Obama 41% 44% 44% 43% 44% 45% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% 45% 46% 45% 45% 45% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47%
Barr 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nader 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Unsure 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%
Week 1
Week 2
9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15
UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
SUMMARY (with Exit Poll Data): Obama won because ….
► … the economy tanked (63% said most important: 53/44)*
► … Bush disapproval (51% strongly disapproved: 82/16)
► … a “Change Election” (34%: 89/9)► … he raised more money ($639M to $360M
for McCain)► … the African-American turnout (11% in ’04;
13% in ’08: 95/4)
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE
SUMMARY Cont. (with Exit Poll Data): Obama won because ….
► … the Latino vote (9% of electorate; 67/31)► … the young voters (+1% in ’08 to 18%:
66/32)► … the gender gap (men = 47%: 49/48;
women = 53%: 56/43)► … a surge in turnout (17% did not vote in
’04: 71/27; increase from 124M to 126M)► … better organization (26% contacted by
Obama: 64/34; versus 18% contacted by McCain (38/60)
805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu
The Graduate School of Political Management
POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE