The Presidential Selection Process?

The Presidential Election Year:A Chronology

The Electoral Calendar

• 2005-7: The Invisible Primary– Raise money– Organize– Get good press & momentum– Get support from party insiders

• January 1, 2008:– Get federal matching funds

The Electoral Calendar

• January, 2008:– Beat expectations in Iowa, New Hampshire,

and other early primaries– Get good press!

• Feb-March, 2008– Win primaries– Benefit from opponents gracefully dropping out

of the race

The Electoral Calendar: Late Spring, 2008

• Become the “presumptive nominee”

• Start raising money for the general election• “It takes money to make money!”

• Fight off minor scandals as the press begins to focus on you

• Make sure you’ve hired all the best campaign professionals

The Campaign Organization

Campaign Chairman

Campaign Manager

Fundraising Director

Finance Chairman

Communications Director

Press Secretary

Policy Director(s)

Political director

Issues director(s)

Field director

Opposition research director

Pollster

Advertising consultant

Media consultant

State campaign chairs

State field directors

The Electoral Calendar: Summer 2008

• Don’t run out of money

• Begin following electoral college strategy

The Blue and Red States

Sure things

• REPUBLICAN STATES:– AL: 9, AR: 3, AK: 6,

GA: 15, ID: 4, IN: 11, KS: 6, KY: 8, LA: 9, MS: 6, MT: 3, NE: 5, NC: 15, ND: 3, OK: 7, SC: 8, SD: 3, TX: 34, UT: 5, VA: 13, WY: 3.

– Total: 176

• DEMOCRATIC STATES– CA: 55, CT: 7, DE: 3,

DC: 3, HI: 4, IL: 21, ME: 4, MD: 10, MA: 12, NJ: 15, NY: 31, RI: 4, VT: 3

– Total: 169

The purple states• The West:

– Arizona: 10 EV, Colorado: 9 EV, Nevada: 5 EV, – New Mexico: 5 EV, Oregon: 7 EV, Washington: 11 EV

• The Midwest:– Minnesota: 10 EV, Iowa: 7 EV, Missouri: 11 EV, Ohio: 20

EV, Pennsylvania: 21 EV, Michigan 17 EV– Wisconsin: 10 EV,

• Border states: – Tennessee: 11 EV, West Virginia: 5 EV

• The South: Florida: 27 EV

• The North: New Hampshire: 4 EV

Number of visits as of 6/24/04

Bush:PA 29 FL 20 MO 17 OH 14

- GA 13

- CA 13

- TX 13 IA 11

Kerry: IA 71NH 68

- CA 29

- NY 27 FL 23 PA 19 IL 14 OH 12

Check mark indicates a purple state. Why visit the others?

The Electoral Calendar: Summer 2008

• Don’t run out of money

• Begin targeting electorally rich swing states

• Continue doing four+ appearances every day

• Raise and spend money up to federal limits

• Choose a vice-presidential running mate

The Electoral Calendar: July/August 2008

• The Democrat:– Give kick-a** speech at the The National

Convention– Get a bounce in the polls from the Convention

coverage– After the convention, get public financing for

campaign– Start running nationwide ads

The Electoral Calendar: September 2008

• The Republican:– The Republican Convention: give a kick-a**

speech– Republican gets bounce in the polls from

Convention coverage– Eligible for public funding for general election

• Official Campaign Season Begins

Campaign strategies?

• Going Negative?

Campaign strategies?

• Going Negative?

• Going over the heads of the press?

• Choosing issues

The Electoral Calendar: September 2008

• First debate takes place, after much argument about format and timing

The Electoral Calendar

• October, 2008: – Candidates spend the bulk of their time in states that

are competitive for both parties– Parties and candidate-campaigns begin get-out-the-vote

drives and phone calls

• November, 2008: ELECTION DAY– By late evening, one candidate has won the popular

vote in enough states to win 270 Electoral Votes, and the Media declares a winner.

– One candidate concedes, the election, the other proclaims victory

The Electoral Calendar

• First Monday following First Wednesday in December: Electors meet in their state capitols and cast their formal votes for president

• January 6, 2009: The President of the Senate opens and counts the votes

• January 20, 2009: The newly elected (or re-elected) president is inaugurated

Some problems with the Electoral College?

• Faithless Electors?

• A small/big state advantage?

• The winner of the popular vote doesn’t always become president