Stock Smart Weekly (Mar 21, 2014)

8/12/2019 Stock Smart Weekly (Mar 21, 2014)

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AKD Researc [email protected] 111 253 111

Weekly Review

The KSE-100 Index closed the week at 26,765 points, down by 1.3%WoW. Investor sen-

timent remained subdued following no change to the DR in the Mar14 MPS and a dip in

regional markets which resulted in selling pressure towards the end of the week. Major

news flow during the week included 1) Feb14 current account registered at US$164mn

increasing the 8MFY14 deficit to more than US$2bn (1.2% of GDP) while FDI increased

by 18%YoY to US$606mn and 2) LSM sector posted modest growth of 2.6%YoY in

Jan14, bringing 7MFY14 LSM growth to 6.05%YoY. Within the AKD Universe, major

gainers during the week were SNGP (+16.3%WoW), SSGC (+14.2%WoW) and SHEL(+5.7%WoW) while major losers during the week included AGTL (-7.2%WoW), OGDC (-

6.9%WoW) and PSMC (-6.4%WoW). Average daily traded volume during the week came

off by 33%WoW to clock in at 188mn shares where volume leaders included FABL, TRG,

LPCL, FCCL and SSGC.

St ock Sma r t AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Pakistan Weekly Update

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Important disclosures

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intendedfor distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would becontrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement withinsuch jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitationor offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKDSecurities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD SECURITIESMember: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg(AKDS), firstcall.com

and Reuters Knowledge

With the end of result season, we expect the market will continue tracking the regional

markets, at least in the near-term. Attention is also likely to remain on macros particularly

the fx reserves position (release of CSF and IMF tranche). In our view, the recent market

dip has opened up attractive investment opportunities in names such as BAFL, NBP,

NML, ENGRO and HUBC which should be availed.

Outlook

Index & Volume Chart

Source: KSE & AKD Research

Universe Gainers & Losers

21 March 2014

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

Sym bol Volum e (m n)

FABL : 85.28

TRG : 67.86

LPCL : 44.44

FCCL : 36.26

SSGC : 35.19

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

S N G P

S S G C

S H E L

U B L

I C I

P P L

L U C K

P S M C

O G D C

A G T L

26,765

27,149

27,259

27,247

27,229

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1 7

M a r

1 8

M a r

1 9

M a r

2 0

M a r

2 1

M a r

(Shrs'000)

26,500

26,600

26,700

26,800

26,900

27,000

27,100

27,200

27,300

(Index)

Read Volume LHS KSE100 Index RHS

Indices KSE-100 KSE-30This week 26,765.49 18,990.38Last week 27,124.47 19,579.43Change -1.32% -3.01%

Indices KMI-30 AllshareThis week 44,606.35 20,026.10Last week 45,588.55 20,195.28

Change -2.15% -0.84%

Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bnThis week 6,460.62 65.80 Last week 6,551.97 66.45 Change -1.39% -0.97%

Avg. Daily Turnover (' mn s har es)This week 188.87 Last week 282.90 Change -33.24%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

M a r -

1 3

A p r -

1 3

M a y - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1

3

S e p - 1

3

S e p - 1

3

O c t - 1

3

N o v - 1

3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1

4

F e b

- 1 4

M a r -

1 4

(mn) (Index)

15,000

16,300

17,600

18,900

20,200

21,500

22,800

24,100

25,400

26,700

28,000

Volume (LHS) KSE- 100 Index


2/10

AKD Securities Limited21 March 2014

StockSmartPakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

2

Mar 21, 2014

Mar 20, 2014

Mar 19, 2014

PSMC_TP revision following stronger PkR, (AKD Daily, March 21, 2014)

Following swi PkR apprecia on, subsequent incorpora on of higher GMs and a revi sion in volume es mates, we raise our EPS es mates for PSMC by 6% on average. Together will rollover onto Dec'14, our target price for PSMC rises to PkR195/share (+12%). We forecast NPAT of PkR1,892mn (EPS: PkR22.99) in CY14F which represents normalized growth of 20%YoY (exsale of land in CY13), leading to a double digit pro jected 5yr NPAT CAGR (normalized). That said, we believe the stock's 23%MTD rise has largely captured the posi ves where our revised target price implies a Neutral stance. Factors that would induce us to revisit our investment case include a sustained strong PkR (+ve) as well as the provisions of the upcoming auto policy.

NBP_Worst may be over, (AKD Daily, March 20, 2014))

Following NBP's worst performance in 10yrs (CY13 NPAT: PkR5.4bn, EPS: PkR2.48), we

cut our Dec'14 target price to PkR60/share but retain an Accumulate stance based on an an cipated swi rebound in pro tability. With Bangladesh opera ons ~60% provid ed for and domes c impairment headed lower, the main impetus to earnings growth should come from likely lower provisions. At the same me, NBP retains sizeable unre alized capital gains backlog of PkR21.7bn (on local shares/mutual funds) which can po ten ally result in +ve earnings surprises. Finally, sustained CAR above 16% provides comfort that NBP can maintain a high payout ra o going forward (3yr average: 76%). Having shed 8%CYTD, NBP trades at a CY14F P/B of 0.7x, P/E of 7.2x and D/Y of 10.4%. While NBP will likely con nue to trade at a discount to private sector peers, we believe its price performance will recouple with an cipated improvement in sequen al results. Our revised target price off ers 13% upside (total return: 24%).

BAFL_Poised for strong growth, (AKD Daily, March 19, 2014)

Following be er than expected results in CY13 (EPS: PkR3.47, +3%YoY) where a sharp reduc on in NPL stock was a key highlight, we li our Dec14 target price for BAFL to PkR32/share from PkR27/share. Our bullish stance is premised on a projected 5yr NPAT CAGR of 17%, among the best in the AKD Banking Universe, coupled with consistent payouts (cash + bonus) over the medium term. Earnings growth is expected to ema nate from both higher NII and lower credit costs. At the same me, while the rapid branch network expansion in 4QCY13 (+73 branches to 574) may impinge on CY14F costs, we believe economies of scale will emerge over the medium term as core sta ffstrength has remained largely stable. BAFL trades at a CY14F P/B of 1.1x and P/E of 7.5x where our revised TP (which does not a ach any value to Warid stake) off ers an upside of 12% (exdividend: 21%).

NML_A rac ve despite 2HFY14 weakness, (AKD Daily, March 18, 2014)

While NML posted strong results during 1HFY14 (EPS: PkR10.96; +35%YoY), 2HFY14 results are expected to be sequen ally lower due to lower core income on a stronger PkR as well as likely lower dividend income. These stand to counter the impact of an cipated higher other income from loan to subsidiary. Together with a strong PkR, we downward revise our FY14F and FY15F EPS es mates to PkR18.67 (1.88%) and PkR22.12 (4.74%) which leads us to trim our Jun14 target price to PkR137.5/share from PkR141.4/share previously. That said, NML (FY14F P/E: 6.9x) remains our pre ferred play in the Tex le space given its rela vely low sensi vity to co on prices and strong por olio income. In this regard, we believe any weakness in share price, par cu larly on fresh PkR apprecia on, should be taken as an opportunity to build posi ons in

this quality

name.

26,670

26,736

26,802

26,868

26,934

27,000

27,06627,132

27,198

9 : 1 5

9 : 5 9

1 0 : 4 3

1 1 : 2 6

1 2 : 1 0

1 2 : 5 3

1 3 : 3 5

1 4 : 1 8

1 5 : 0 2

1 5 : 4 6

1 6 : 3 2


Mar 17, 2014

27,036

27,076

27,116

27,156

27,196

27,236

27,276

27,316

27,356

9 : 3

0

1 0 : 2

2

1 1 : 1

4

1 2 : 0

5

1 2 : 5

6

1 3 : 4

7

1 4 : 3

9

1 5 : 3

1

27,200

27,220

27,240

27,260

27,280

27,300

27,320

27,340

27,360

9 : 4

5

1 0 : 2

4

1 1 : 0

2

1 1 : 4

0

1 2 : 1

8

1 2 : 5

7

1 3 : 3

5

1 4 : 1

3

1 4 : 5

1

1 5 : 3

0

Mar 18, 2014

27,170

27,188

27,206

27,224

27,242

27,260

27,278

27,296

27,314

9 : 3 0

1 0 : 2 1

1 1 : 1 2

1 2 : 0 2

1 2 : 5 3

1 3 : 4 3

1 4 : 3 4

1 5 : 2 5

27,220

27,239

27,258

27,277

27,296

27,315

27,334

27,353

27,372

9 : 3 0

1 0 : 1 5

1 1 : 0 0

1 1 : 4 5

1 2 : 3 0

1 3 : 1 5

1 3 : 5 9

1 4 : 4 4

1 5 : 3 0


3/10



This Weeks Daily Reports

3

Pakistan Economy: SBP to wait & see, (AKD Daily, March 17, 2014)

In a not unexpected move, the SBP has kept the Discount Rate unchanged at 10% for the next two months. In this regard, while the central bank has cited lower in a on and rebound in LSM growth as posi ve factors, it wishes to see further comfort on the external front before decisively moving to cut interest rates. The la er is con ngent upon 1) mely materializa on of foreign in ows, 2) reduc on in scal borrowing, and 3) mee ng the NDA target given by IMF while sustained stability in the exchange rate is also likely to be a key factor. Provided this is achieved and in a on remains in check, we believe the SBP may have room to cut the DR by as much as 100bps in the May14 MPS. In the interim, with the SBP maintaining status quo in the Mar14 MPS, we expect Banks to outperform this week. On the ipside, leveraged Cements and selected Fer lizers (EFERT) may see near term weakness. At the same me, any fresh deprecia ng pressure on the PkR (slippage of 1.5% vs. the US$ in the two days before MPS an

nouncement) may cause a switch from Autos into IPPs.


4/10



4

Commodities

International Major Currencies

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Major World Indices Performance

Source: Bloomberg

TRJ-CRB Index

Source: Bloomberg

PkR/US$ Trend

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Valuatio ns (2014)

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

97.0

99.0

101.0

103.0

105.0

107.0

109.0

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1

3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1

3

N o v - 1

3

J a n - 1

4

M a r - 1 4

SPOT Units 21 Mar 14 14 Mar 14 WoW CYTDTRJCRB Points 299.95 302.88 0.97% 7.06%

Nymex (WTI) US$/bbl. 99.27 98.89 0.38% 0.86%

ICE Brent US$/bbl. 106.83 108.38 1.43% 3.60%N. Gas Henry Hub US$/Mmbtu 4.4 4.3796 0.47% 1.29%

Cotton USd/Pound 97.8 97.4 0.41% 9.03%

Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1337.64 1383.05 3.28% 10.95%

Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 20.418 21.445 4.79% 4.88%

Copper US$/MT 6441 6492.5 0.79% 12.67%Platinum US$/Oz 1437.24 1471 2.30% 4.95%

Coal US$/MT 73.1 73.1 0.00% 13.59%

SPOT 21 Mar 14 14 Mar 14 Chg +/ WoW CYTD

Dollar Index 80.115 79.446 0.669 0.84% 0.10%

USD/PkR 97.879 99.023 1.143 1.15% 7.07%

USD/JPY 102.320 101.360 0.960 0.95% 2.84%

EUR/USD 1.378 1.391 0.014 0.97% 0.26%

GBP/USD 1.649 1.665 0.015 0.93% 0.39%

AUD/USD 0.907 0.903 0.004 0.44% 1.69%

NZD/USD 0.853 0.854 0.000 0.05% 3.90%

CHF/USD 0.884 0.872 0.012 1.34% 0.99%

CAD/USD 1.119 1.111 0.009 0.78% 5.36%

USD/KRW 1,080 1,073 7.620 0.71% 2.91%

CNY/USD 6.226 6.150 0.076 1.23% 2.83%

Country Bloomberg Code 21 Mar 14 14 Mar 14 WoW CYTD

Pakistan KSE100 Index 26,765 27,124 1.32% 5.96%

Srilanka CSEALL Index 5,938

5,896

0.71% 0.42%Thailand SET Index 1,361 1,372 0.85% 4.76%

Jakarta JCI Index 4,700 4,879 3.66% 9.97%Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,820 1,805 0.85% 2.49%Philippines PCOMP Index 6,339 6,391 0.81% 7.63%Vietnam VNINDEX Index 602 597 0.82% 19.25%Hong Kong HSI Index 21,437 21,539 0.48% 8.02%Singapore FSSTI Index 3,073 3,074 0.01% 2.97%Brazil IBX Index 19,617 18,685 4.99% 7.88%Russia RTSSTD Index 8,745 8,402 4.08% 14.07%India SENSEX Index 21,754 21,810 0.26% 2.75%China SHCOMP Index 2,048 2,004 2.16% 3.23%S&P SPX Index 1,872 1,841 1.68% 1.28%DJIA INDU Index 16,331 16,066 1.65% 1.48%NASDAQ Composite CCMP Index 4,319 4,245 1.74% 3.42%UK UKX Index 6,563 6,528 0.54% 2.75%German DAX Index 9,336 9,056 3.09% 2.26%Qatar DSM Index 11,367 11,343 0.21% 9.52%Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 4,785 4,754 0.65% 11.53%Dubai DFMGI Index 4,304 3,981 8.10% 27.71%Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 7,557 7,455 1.38% 0.10%Oman MSM30 Index 6,933 7,063 1.85% 1.43%Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 9,306 9,386 0.86% 9.02%MSCI EM MXEF Index 941 938 0.32% 6.18%MSCI FM MXFM Index 617 602 2.50% 3.71%

EPS Growth PE(x)Pakistan 25% 8.27

Indonesia 13% 11.38

Malaysia 17% 12.55 Philippines 9% 14.76 Vitenam 16% 15.28 India 17% 13.83 China 13% 7.08

% ROE Divd YldPakistan 21.54 5.82 Indonesia 18.48 2.37 Malaysia 13.50 3.46 P hi li ppi ne s 1 4.8 4 2.48 Vitenam 17.85 n.aIndia 15.73 1.82 China 13.91 3.95


5/10

5



Chart Bank

FIPI Flows for the week

(907)

(1,816)

(2,929)

70

(4,372)(5,000)

(4,500)(4,000)

(3,500)(3,000)

(2,500)(2,000)(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

500

17 Ma r 18 Ma r 19 Mar 20 Ma r 21 Mar

(US$'000)

Advance to Decline Ratio

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

M a r

1 3

M a y

1 3

J u l 1 3

O c t

1 3

D e c

1 3

M a r

1 4

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

5%1%7%

13%19%25%31%37%43%49%

M a r

1 3

A p r 1 3

M a y

1 3

J u l 1 3

A u g 1 3

S e p 1 3

N o v 1 3

D e c

1 3

J a n 1 4

M a r

1 4

KSEAll Share Index AKD Universe

LIPI Flows for the week

Ind., 0.10

Co., (1.43)

Bank/DFI, (1.83)

NBFC, 4.70

M.Funds, (11.11)

Others, (1.33)

(4.00)

(2.00)

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

(US$mn)

Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

(4.0)

(2.0)

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

J u n

0 7

O c t

0 7

M a r

0 8

A u g 0 8

J a n

0 9

M a y

0 9

O c t

0 9

M a r

1 0

A u g 1 0

D e c 1 0

M a y

1 1

O c t

1 1

M a r

1 2

J u l 1 2

D e c 1 2

M a y

1 3

O c t

1 3

M a r

1 4

(%)

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

15%5%5%

15%25%35%45%55%65%

J a n 1 3

M a r

1 3

M a y 1 3

J u

l 1 3

S e p 1 3

N o v 1 3

J a n 1 4

M a r

1 4

KSE100MSCI EM

MSCI FM


6/10

6

AKD Securities Limited StockSmartPakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuat ions

Market PER Chart 2014F

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F



21 March 2014

J u

l - 0 5

S e p - 0

6

D e c - 0

7

M a r -

0 9

J u n - 1

0

S e p - 1

1

D e c - 1

2

M a r -

1 4

15

11

8

4

(x)

J u l 0 5

S e p 0 6

D e c

0 7

M a r

0 9

J u n 1 0

S e p 1 1

D e c

1 2

M a r

1 4

(x)3.5

2.6

1.7

0.8

21 Mar 14 2011A 2012A 2013A/E 2014F 2015FEPS (PkR) 8.04 8.74 9.55 11.90 13.64 EPS chg (%) 24.30 8.67 9.28 24.59 14.59 EPS chg (%) ExFinancials 25.15 8.76 16.62 28.53 15.37 Book Value per Share (PkR) 37.64 43.08 49.25 55.24 61.58 Payout (%) 52.26 50.30 50.11 48.10 48.24 ValuationsPrice to Earnings (x) 12.23 11.25 10.30 8.27 7.21 Price to Book (x) 2.61 2.28 2.00 1.78 1.60 PER (x) ExFinancials 13.16 12.10 10.38 8.07 7.00 P/BVS (x) ExFinancials 3.18 2.80 2.38 2.07 1.84 Price to CF (x) 20.17 25.12 8.20 20.06 11.21 Earnings Yield (%) 8.18 8.89 9.71 12.10 13.86 Dividend Yield (%) 4.27 4.47 4.87 5.82 6.69 EV / EBITDA (x) 7.77 6.85 6.11 5.34 4.74 ProfitabilityReturn on Equity (%) 21.37 20.29 19.40 21.54 22.15 Return on Assets (%) 3.85 3.58 3.77 4.16 4.30 Chg in Sales (%) 17.34 17.58 5.68 12.61 10.79 Gross Margin (%) 23.41 21.76 22.88 22.46 23.02 Operating Margin (%) 14.47 12.84 13.47 13.47 14.32 Net Margin (%) 11.38 10.52 10.88 12.04 12.45


7/10

7


AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

21 March 2014


Stocks Symbol Price TP Stance EPS

(PkR) PE(x) PB (x) DY (%)

(PkR) (PkR) 12A 13A/E 14F 12A 13A/E 14F 12A 13A/E 14F 12A 13A/E 14F

Automobile and Parts

Indus Motors INDU 395.3 384.29 Neutral 54.7 42.7 49.1 7.2 9.3 8.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 8.1 6.3

Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 190.2 194.99 Neutral 11.9 22.5 23.0 16.0 8.5 8.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.6

Construc on and Materials

DG Khan Cement DGKC 93.8 106.95 Accumulate 9.4 12.6 12.9 10.0 7.5 7.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.6 3.2 3.5

Chemicals

Engro Polymer Chemicals EPCL 14.6 16.49 Accumulate 0.1 1.1 1.1 125.8 13.7 12.7 1.5 1.4 1.2

ICI Pakistan Limited ICI 332.2 228.39 Sell 10.5 7.4 17.8 31.5 44.6 18.6 3.0 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.5 2.7

Lo e Chemical Pakistan Ltd. LOTCHEM 6.8 8.53 Buy 0.0 (0.3) 0.6 n.m n.m 11.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 3.7

Engro Corpora on ENGRO 184.3 196.20 Accumulate 2.6 18.7 22.9 70.7 9.9 8.1 2.2 1.3 1.2

Engro Fer lizers Limited EFERT 49.1 55.45 Accumulate (2.3) 4.2 5.6 (21.7) 11.6 8.7 4.0 2.9 2.2

Dawood Hercules Limited DAWH 79.5 71.83 Reduce 2.0 9.2 13.1 39.0 8.6 6.1 2.0 n.a n.a 1.3

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 41.3 49.33 Accumulate 4.6 6.0 6.6 8.9 6.9 6.2 3.1 2.4 2.5 10.9 13.3 15.1

Fauji Fer lizer Company FFC 108.9 138.62 Buy 16.4 15.8 16.4 6.6 6.9 6.6 6.3 5.8 5.6 14.2 14.7 14.9 Fa ma Fer lizer FATIMA 31.2 35.09 Accumulate 2.9 4.1 5.0 10.7 7.7 6.2 2.3 2.0 1.7 6.4 6.4 6.4

Food Producers

Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 113.1 80.92 Sell 3.4 0.3 2.6 33.4 410.9 43.5 8.6 7.6 6.4

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 251.9 302.09 Accumulate 22.5 21.1 28.9 11.2 11.9 8.7 4.0 3.3 2.7 2.9 3.3 4.6

Pak Oil elds POL 539.9 612.57 Accumulate 50.1 45.8 59.1 10.8 11.8 9.1 3.6 3.7 3.4 9.7 8.3 8.5

Pakistan State Oil PSO 429.2 345.59 Reduce 36.7 50.8 91.5 11.7 8.4 4.7 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.3

Electricity

Hub Power Co. HUBC 52.5 72.19 Buy 7.1 8.8 7.0 7.4 6.0 7.5 2.0 1.8 2.0 11.4 15.2 17.1

Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 58.8 64.00 Accumulate 6.9 8.4 8.0 8.5 7.0 7.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 11.7 12.7 13.2

Fixed Line Telecommunica on

Pakistan Telecommunica on PTC 30.5 29.71 Neutral 2.2 3.1 4.2 13.6 9.9 7.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 7.4 9.8

Personal Goods

Nishat Mills NML 122.8 137.54 Accumulate 10.0 16.6 18.7 12.2 7.4 6.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 2.8 3.3 3.9 Banks

Allied Bank Limited ABL 84.4 95.03 Accumulate 11.4 14.2 11.0 7.4 5.9 7.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 7.0 6.5 7.1

Bank AlFalah BAFL 25.9 32.0* Buy 3.4 3.5 3.8 7.7 7.5 6.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 7.7 7.7 5.8

Habib Bank Limited HBL 164.0 164.99 Neutral 17.0 17.1 19.1 9.6 9.6 8.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 4.2 4.9 5.5

MCB Bank Limited MCB 246.6 270.03 Accumulate 18.8 19.7 20.9 13.1 12.5 11.8 2.6 2.4 2.1 4.4 5.2 5.3

Na onal Bank of Pakistan NBP 51.6 59.99 Accumulate 7.3 2.5 7.4 7.0 20.8 7.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 11.8 3.9 10.7

United Bank Ltd UBL 144.8 150.03 Neutral 15.6 15.8 16.5 9.3 9.2 8.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 5.9 5.9 6.2

* TP for BAFL rises to PkR33.8/share upon successful Warid stake sale


8/10

8



AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance


Stocks Sym bol Pr ice 1 Year 1 Year 21-Mar-14 1M 3M 6M 12M CYTD High Low

KSE-100 Index 26765.49 4.5 4.6 13.4 49.4 5.6 27104.70 17492.00

Industrial Engineer ing

Al-Ghazi Tractor AGTL 212.12 -22.4 1.4 3.9 -0.6 2.1 273.49 197.00Millat Tractors MTL 469.00 -1.4 -2.6 -4.7 0.7 -3.1 519.58 433.73

Au to m ob ile an d Par ts

Indus Motors INDU 395.34 6.0 17.7 19.7 28.8 19.4 398.10 282.00Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 190.19 20.0 30.0 30.3 88.7 33.5 167.70 97.29

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement DGKC 93.83 9.6 12.8 19.4 36.1 13.0 96.43 61.23Lucky Cement LUCK 318.64 5.9 10.1 28.0 88.5 9.4 321.67 160.97

Chemicals

Engro Polymer Chemicals EPCL 14.60 -4.6 11.3 12.4 40.1 10.8 16.66 9.29ICI Pakistan Limited ICI 332.17 25.5 41.0 66.9 141.1 45.7 326.31 135.37Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited LOTCHEM 6.80 1.2 -7.7 -2.0 -10.1 -9.6 8.89 6.46Daw ood Hercules DAWH 79.53 -6.5 40.0 44.5 59.4 38.3 85.56 37.88Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT 56.83 0.0 n.a n.a n.a n.a 56.85 29.66Engro Chemical ENGRO 184.31 1.2 17.4 22.3 40.5 11.3 187.38 103.25Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 31.18 8.2 8.2 18.3 38.5 9.3 30.16 21.29Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 41.28 -5.3 -8.3 5.4 11.4 -7.3 45.42 36.90Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 108.93 -2.2 -5.7 3.1 0.9 -5.1 119.52 101.37

Food Producer s

Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 113.08 13.4 11.4 -1.6 -11.4 6.4 162.22 80.37

Non Life Ins urance

Adamjee Insurance AICL 44.33 5.1 15.4 51.7 71.2 14.6 74.12 23.57

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 251.89 -4.1 -9.7 0.4 23.6 -8.9 287.84 197.32Pak Oilf ields POL 539.93 9.1 6.0 14.2 18.3 9.2 539.63 428.73Pakistan State Oil PSO 429.18 24.8 27.4 46.2 109.0 27.7 367.10 184.67

Electricity

Hub Pow er Co. HUBC 52.49 -3.8 -14.2 -18.8 -1.8 -14.8 73.42 50.13Kot Addu Pow er Company KAPCO 58.84 3.4 -4.5 -8.3 11.8 -5.5 68.34 49.53

Fixed Line Telecomm unication

Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 30.51 8.7 -2.5 11.1 54.8 -3.4 31.70 17.46

Personal Goods

Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 48.21 -11.2 -16.9 -20.8 -1.3 -17.2 68.82 43.31Nishat Mills NML 122.82 -7.5 -1.8 25.4 47.7 1.2 140.79 69.03

Banks

Allied Bank Limited ABL 84.42 -5.4 -8.1 -0.8 41.3 -7.9 94.51 55.01 Askari Bank Limited AKBL 17.20 24.0 18.4 24.8 11.6 25.1 16.15 10.76Bank AlFalah BAFL 25.86 -7.5 -8.1 7.4 66.4 -5.6 28.66 14.77Habib Bank Limited HBL 164.01 2.2 -1.1 -3.9 70.3 1.5 181.57 88.00Habib Metropolitan Bank HMB 24.55 1.9 -5.4 0.0 59.3 -5.2 26.16 14.61MCB Bank Limited MCB 246.55 -8.7 -17.7 -18.8 30.7 -13.1 316.87 183.00Meezan Bank Limited MEBL 36.95 -1.2 -5.5 -5.4 45.0 -8.3 40.87 24.11National Bank of Pakistan NBP 51.56 -8.5 -13.1 -5.6 29.3 -11.2 60.01 37.66United Bank Ltd UBL 144.83 7.0 6.3 -4.8 71.4 6.3 154.21 82.16

Ab s ol ut e Per fo rm ance (%)


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Economic Snapshot

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

End Month Data Units Apr -13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul -13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14

T-bill3M % 9.42 9.41 9.26 8.93 9.00 9.15 9.47 9.63 9.93 9.92 9.91

6M % 9.44 9.42 9.16 9.01 9.20 9.35 9.68 9.88 10.02 9.98 9.95

12M % 9.46 9.43 9.19 9.03 9.34 9.48 9.81 9.96 10.12 10.05 9.99

PIB 10Y % 11.92 11.25 10.86 11.57 11.97 12.28 12.83 12.93 12.90 12.59 12.80

KIBOR 6M % 9.58 9.60 9.39 9.08 9.15 9.29 9.55 9.52 10.13 10.14 10.15

Discount rate % 9.50 9.50 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Inflation

Headline inflation % 5.80 5.10 5.90 8.26 8.55 7.40 9.10 10.90 9.18 7.90 7.90

Core inflation % 8.70 8.10 7.80 8.20 8.50 8.70 8.40 8.50 8.20 8.00 7.80

Food inflation % 5.50 6.50 7.90 9.20 10.30 7.90 9.80 13.00 9.30 7.20 7.60

External Indicators

Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 2,130 2,175 2,197 2,095 1,996 2,622 1,864 1,804 2,275 2,061 2,167

Import (PBS) US$ (mn) 3,909 4,346 3,940 3,814 3,572 3,791 3,281 3,651 3,561 4,137 3,600

Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn) (1,779) (2,171) (1,743) (1,719) (1,576) (1,169) (1,417) (1,847) (1,286) (2,076) (1,433)

Home Remittances US$ (mn) 1,216 1,186 1,165 1,404 1,233 1,283 1,348 1,131 1,385 n.a 1,210

Current Account US$ (mn) (354) (346) (163) 46 (575) (574) (166) (572) 285 (464) 164

1,779 2,171 1,743 1,719 1,576 1,169 1,417 1,847 1,286

Banking Sector

Deposits PkR (bn) 6,709 6,950 7,316 7,069 7,174 7,125 7,133 7,309 7,529 7,566 7,599

Advances PkR (bn) 3,857 3,906 3,869 3,788 3,817 3,831 3,921 4,008 4,071 4,127 4,110

Investments PkR (bn) 3,893 3,942 4,129 3,837 3,708 3,873 3,776 4,035 4,070 4,217 4,443

Weighted Avg. lending rate % 11.42 11.49 11.36 11.28 11.11 11.10 11.10 11.13 11.07 n.a n.a

Weighted Avg. deposit rate % 5.23 5.15 5.01 4.97 4.83 4.79 4.90 4.89 5.05 n.a n.a

Spread rate % 6.19 6.34 6.35 6.31 6.28 6.31 6.20 6.24 6.02 n.a n.a

Public Finance

Tax collection PkR (mn) 153,199 173,268 267,608 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Direct taxes PkR (mn) 48,462 60,982 128,889 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 104,737 112,286 138,719 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Currency

Reserves (RHS) US$ (mn) 11,812 11,474 11,020 10,287 9,998 9,995 9,525 8,238 8,168 8,017 8,737

USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD 98.48 98.52 98.94 101.90 104.51 105.24 106.89 107.56 107.13 105.47 104.89


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AKD Research Team Analyst Tel no. E-mail CoverageNaveed Vakil +92 111 253 111 (692) [email protected] Director - Research & Business DevelopmentRaza Jafri, CFA +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks

Anum Dhedhi +92 111 253 111 (637) [email protected] Pakistan EconomyBilal Alvi +92 111 253 111 (647) [email protected] Textiles, Cements & ChemicalQasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical AnalysisHassan Quadri +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production / Autos

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21 March 2014

Stock Smart Weekly (Mar 21, 2014)

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Transcript of Stock Smart Weekly (Mar 21, 2014)