Steve HemingerExecutive Director, MTC

AMPO Annual Conference

Oct. 2 - 5, 2007

CommissionersCommissionersMary Peters Secretary of Transportation — Chairperson

Jack Schenendorf Of Counsel, Covington & Burling — Vice Chair

Frank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of Transportation

Maria Cino Deputy Secretary of Transportation

Rick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies, Cornell University

Steve Heminger Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission

Frank McArdle General Contractors Association of New York

Steve Odland Chairman and CEO, Office Depot

Patrick Quinn Chairman, American Trucking Association

Matt Rose CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad

Tom Skancke CEO, The Skancke Company

Paul Weyrich Chairman and CEO, Free Congress Foundation

Statutory MandateStatutory Mandate

• Study current condition and future needs of surface transportation system

• Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway Trust Fund revenues and long-term alternatives to replace or supplement fuel tax

• Frame policy and funding recommendations for 15-, 30-, and 50-year time horizons

• Report to Congress by January 1,2008

Field HearingsField Hearings

• September 20-21, 2006 Dallas, TX

• November 15–16, 2006 New York, NYMemphis, TN

• February 21–22, 2007 Los Angeles, CAAtlanta, GA

• March 19, 2007 Washington, DC

• April 18–19, 2007 Chicago, ILMinneapolis, MN

FreightFreight

China was 33% of US imports in 2000 and will be 50% by

2010

China was 33% of US imports in 2000 and will be 50% by

2010

1,4371,437

6,1656,165

(TEUs in thousands)

20202020

20042004

HoustonHouston

13,10113,101

LA/LBLA/LB1,0101,0102,15

22,152

MiamiMiami

2,0432,0433,3823,382

OaklandOakland

4,4784,478

15,83515,835

NY/NJNY/NJ

1,8091,809

5,5665,566

VirginiaVirginia

1,8601,860

6,6396,639

CharlestonCharleston

1,6621,662

9,4209,420

SavannahSavannah

1,7981,7984,3964,396

TacomaTacoma

1,7761,776 2,5572,557

SeattleSeattle

59,42059,420

Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression

Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade

Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade

Volume of trade: 2004 and 2020

Source: U.S. DOTv

Truck Rail Water Air Total

More trade means more domesticfreight movements…

More trade means more domesticfreight movements…

West region +65%

South region +71%

Central

region +71%

Northeast region +58%

U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-2020

U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020

20202020

20002000

% change 2000-2020% change 2000-2020

62% 44% 39% 181% 57%

10,70010,700

17,29617,296

2,0092,009

2,8912,891

1,0541,054

1,4701,470

13,77213,772

21,68221,682

992525

(tons in millions)

Source: U.S. DOT

Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002

Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

4%1%

9%

3% 2% 0%

7%3% 1%

40%

74%

67%

16%

40%

6%<1%<1%

6%2%

13%

3%

Tons Value Ton-Miles

Perc

en

t

s

TruckRailWaterAirPipeline

Multiple ModesOther/Unknown Modes

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, “2002 Economic Census, Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,” Table 1b.

Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value

commodities and for heavy shipments moving long distances

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Class I Railroads Track-Miles Owned

Sources: L. Thompson/World Bank and American Association of Railroads

Rail Network TodayRail Network TodayToday’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a

core network that is descended directly from the 19th Century design

Metro MobilityMetro Mobility

In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually

In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually

Source: Texas Transportation Institute

Source: America 2050

Top Dozen Metro AreasTop Dozen Metro Areas

Source: U.S. Census

Metros Are Engines of Economic Growth

Metros Are Engines of Economic Growth

• Combined GDP of top dozen metro areas exceeds combined economic output of 35 states

• New York metro area ranks 10th in the world, with a larger economy than India, South Korea or Mexico

• Los Angeles and Chicago metro areas rank 18th and 19th — each larger than Belgium, Sweden or Taiwan

Source: U.S. Conference of Mayors

Metros Capture Huge Market Share

Metros Capture Huge Market Share

10 Megaregions

Top Dozen Metro Areas

1 Share of U.S. Population 68% 33%

2 Share of Traffic Congestion

92% 70%

3 Share of GDP 78% 39%

4 Share of Transit Ridership

93% 76%

5 Share of Population Exposure to Criteria Pollutants

94% 64%

Sources: U.S. Census, Texas Transportation Institute, U.S. Conference of Mayors, EPA

U.S. Population Change, 2000 –2050

U.S. Population Change, 2000 –2050

Sour

ce: W

oods

& P

oole

200

2; U

nive

rsity

of

Penn

sylv

ania

Sch

ool o

f D

esig

n

Fuel Efficiency(“Energy Independence”)

Fuel Efficiency(“Energy Independence”)

Sources: Environmental Protection Agency; Energy Information Administration

Ho

rsep

ow

er

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1997 19961995

1994 19931992 1991

1990 19891988

19871986

19851984

19831982

1981

1998

2004

20032002

20012000

1999

230

210

190

170

150

130

110

00 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Miles per Gallon

59 percent more energy performance

52 percentmore output

U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles

U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles

1975–2004 Model Years Sales-Weighted Horsepower and MPG

International Fuel Economy Comparison

International Fuel Economy Comparison

Comparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG emission standards for new-sale light-duty vehicles

Sou

rce:

UC

Berk

ele

y

Source: U.S DOE

World and U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Compared

World and U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Compared

1

World U.S.14% Transportation 28%17% Industrial 30%22% Power Stations NA3% Waste Disposal/Treatment NA

10% Land Use & Biomass Burning

NA

10% Residential & Commercial 34%11% Fossil Fuel Production NA13% Agricultural Byproducts 8%

Sources: US DOE and EPA

Is the Public Ready for Change?

Is the Public Ready for Change?

Source: The New York Times / CBS News Poll, April 2007

SafetySafety

U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities

Per 100 Million VMT

U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities

Per 100 Million VMT

Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004

U.S. Traffic Deaths Far Exceed Casualties of War

U.S. Traffic Deaths Far Exceed Casualties of War

Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004

What’s Broken?What’s Broken?

Environmental Impact StatementEnvironmental Impact StatementProcessing Time (FY 1998–2006)

Source: FHWA

Length of Time to Complete the New Starts Process

Length of Time to Complete the New Starts Process

Source: Holland & Knight

Street and Highway Construction Costs Have Increased Dramatically

Over the Past Few Years

Street and Highway Construction Costs Have Increased Dramatically

Over the Past Few Years

Source: AGC

FinanceFinance

Highway Account Cash Balance

Highway Account Cash Balance

Source: FY 2008 President’s Mid-session Projections

Mass Transit Account Cash BalanceMass Transit Account Cash Balance

Source: FY 2008 President’s Mid-session Projections

Year

600

Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year

Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015)

(through 2015)

Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year

Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015)

(through 2015)

100

200

300

400

500

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Year-

of-

Expendit

ure

Dolla

rs (

in B

illio

ns)

Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year

Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015)

(through 2015)

Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year

Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015)

(through 2015) Revenue

Cost toMaintain

Cost toImprove

National Funding GapNational Funding Gap

Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum

Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax

State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum

Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax

State

Cents per Gallon

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

NY CT MI NV FL RI IN OH ME WV ID OR SD MD ND MN IA NH DC TX VI MS NM OK NJ AK

CA IL WI PA HI WA NC MT NE GA KS UT MA DE CO AR TN AL LA VT AZ KY MO SC WY

Excise MFT

Additional MFT

Source: American Petroleum Institute

As of April 2006

Recent Public Private PartnershipsRecent Public Private Partnerships

Source: Public Works Financing

Project Location

Intermodal Projects in Green

Highway Projects in Blue

Transit Projects in Yellow

Reno RailCorridor

SR 125Toll Road

-Hudson Bergen Light Rail Line

Chicago SkywayAsset Sale

Dulles Greenway

Miami Intermodal Center

Central TexasTurnpike

PocahontasParkway

Camden Trenton Light Rail Line

San Joaquin HillsToll Road

Foothill EasternToll Road

Alameda Corridor

-Trans TexasCorridor

Denver E-470NorthwestParkway

NM 44 (US 550)

Southern Connector

Hiawatha Light Rail Line

Jamaica JFK Airtrain

Tacoma NarrowsBridge

Osceola Parkway

Las Vegas Monorail

I-15 Reconstruction

AZ-17

Indiana Toll Road Asset Sale

CREATE

“Our unity as a nation is sustained by

free communication of thought and

by easy transportation of people

and goods... Together the unifying

forces of our communication and

transportation systems are dynamic

elements in the very name we bear

— United States. Without them, we

would be a mere alliance of many

separate parts.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1955

For More Information:

www.transportationfortomorrow.org

For More Information:

www.transportationfortomorrow.org