Stephenson Chapter Drafts (A221 Version)
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CHAPTER 1
Introduction
The purpose of this study is to explore future US Army roles in the security of
southeastern Europe. This region is subject to chronic instability and has experienced
great turmoil on many occasions across centuries of world history. Ethnic tensions,
territorial disputes, and the potential for violence are key issues. In recent history, armed
conflict during the 1990s led to international interventions and a US Army presence
remains to this day. How the future US Army role will evolve remains uncertain.
What role might the US Army play in the future security of southeastern Europe?
To answer this primary question, additional inquiries must be addressed. What are the
implications for the US Army from strategic documents, policies, and plans?
Additionally, what are the implications of treaties, alliances and agreements for future US
Army operations in the region?
One underlying assumption is the potential for future violence in southeastern
Europe. This assumption is based on a well-documented history of armed conflicts and
recurring tensions across the region. A second assumption is that the US Army remains
an integral part of the military instrument of national power in southeastern Europe. The
fact that the US Army is currently operating in the region supports this assumption. The
third assumption is that, should a future situation arise in southeastern Europe that
requires military intervention by the international community, the US will participate.
Support of this assumption stems from treaties, alliances, and agreements signed by the
US.
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The scope is limited to the range of potential utilizations for the US Army in
southeastern Europe and will not attempt to assess roles or implications for the entire US
military establishment. Geopolitical complexities in the region indicate the need for a
clear description of what is and is not under consideration. It is critical to now present
which states constitute southeastern Europe for the purpose of this study. Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Republic of Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia, and
Albania are the focus areas of this research and analysis. In contemporary times as in the
past, southeastern Europe, which is often referred to as the Balkans, is defined in multiple
variations. Countries such as Bulgaria, Greece, and the European area of Turkey are not
included in this research outside of their basic historical relevance in the region.
Why is this subject important? The significance of this study stems from its
potential utility for strategic Army planners in developing a current set of reference
points for thinking ahead or anticipating critical decisions pertaining to US Army
involvement in southeastern Europe. Results from the research may be applied to address
questions regarding the future application of armed force, if any, needed to ensure
stability in the region. The volatility of the region cannot be underestimated. Conflicts
initiating in southeastern Europe can and have spread quickly from its boarders resulting
in threats to US national interests. Additionally, the United States is currently engaged in
a Global War on Terror requiring a deployed strength of US military well in excess of
one hundred thousand personnel to Iraq and Afghanistan. In this time of high utilization
for the US military, opportunities to implement the economy of force principle warrant a
careful review. Currently, the US military has achieved a measure of an economy of
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force from its selection of reserve component personnel to man the current deployments
to southeastern Europe.
Background
Historical information addressing the turmoil over time in southeastern Europe
helps provide insight into understanding the genesis of contemporary problems in the
region. This study will provide an overview but will not dwell on conflicts from many
hundreds of years in the past. The origins of conflict extend well over six hundred years
with the 1389 Battle of Kosovo serving as the selected point of departure for this review.
Considered a momentous event to the people of Serbia, this battle was fought against the
invading Ottomans and is considered deeply engrained in the memory of Serbs to this
day. Additional battles would follow and result in Ottoman dominance and control of
Serbian territory. This historical reference is presented to illustrate an instance of ethnic
conflict in the region and serves as a key example of tensions between Christians and
Muslims.
A transition point in southeastern Europe occurred during the First Balkan War.
This conflict, fought during the time period of 1912-1913, was a defeat for the Ottomans
against a coalition of Balkan states. Fighting was essentially complete in 1912; however,
an over through of the Ottoman government resulted in new leadership and subsequently,
renewed hostilities and aggression in 1913. The Ottomans were again unsuccessful in
their efforts and at this point their power and control across southeastern Europe would
end. Signing a peace treaty brought a documented conclusion to this conflict but it
clearly would not be the last episode of turmoil in the region.
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Fighting would again occur later during 1913 in what is known as the Second
Balkan War. Its beginning to end would encompass less than two months but it is not
without significant consequence. Now the fighting is not against what was known as a
conquering power, the Ottomans. This conflict was internal to southeastern European
states and predicated on territorial disputes. Specifically at issue here was the division of
territory in Macedonia, which led to fighting between Serbia and Greece on one side, and
Bulgaria on the other. Initiation of hostilities was started by Bulgaria; however they
would prove unsuccessful in this conflict. From the resulting peace treaty, the lines of
the map would be redrawn to represent the victors territorial gains in Macedonia. Very
little territory in Macedonia would belong to Bulgaria and their discontent was
significant. Increased tensions would follow as Bulgaria sought to improve relations and
ally with Austria, a country not favored by Serbia due to their ability to limit Serbian
expansion into Albania, a regional neighbor.
Stability in southeastern Europe would quickly worsen in 1914 with the
assassination of Austrian Archduke Ferdinand in the Bosnian capital of Sarajevo.
Retaliation by Austria followed shortly in the form of military attacks into Serbia. This
conflict would not be contained regionally and the destabilization spread throughout the
leading states of Europe and ultimately much farther in the form of the Great War or in
its current form of reference, World War I. States throughout southeastern Europe were
firmly enmeshed in conflict, seeking among other goals, future hopes for gains in the
realms of territory and influence. In the aftermath, postwar results did not markedly
stabilize the region and it remained susceptible to turmoil driven in part by political,
economic, and cultural challenges.
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War again came to Europe in 1939 with the rise Adolph Hitler and increasing
German aggression. Southeastern Europe would first become fractured with changes in
territorial boundaries imposed by member states of the Axis Powers. Military conflicts
would tear at the region in addition to continued ethnic strife among multiple groups such
as the Croats and Serbs. As the Allied Powers gained the advantage in Europe and
ultimately prevailed in the war, the geographic lines would again be renegotiated and this
time on their terms. The aftermath of WWII led to increased influence by the Soviet
Union in the region. From this change, a new chapter in the evolution of southeastern
Europe would follow.
The influence of Josip Tito made a lasting impact on the region and specifically
Yugoslavia. From his military leadership during WWII in the Yugoslav territory, his
influence would only grow. Tito would become a postwar leader in Yugoslavia for over
thirty years as it developed and operated as a communist system of government. During
his tenure, relations with the Soviet Union would experience significant friction and Tito
would act to distance himself and Yugoslavia as he became instrumental in the Non-
Aligned Movement. Key to the understanding of Tito was his success at controlling
nationalist tendencies in this collective group of once autonomous states. The tensions
among Yugoslavias multitude of ethnicities, religions and even political ideologies did
not go away, but were effectively controlled during his tenure.
From the point of Titos death in 1980 to the present constitutes the modern
period of decline in regional stability, the disintegration of Yugoslavia, resumed armed
conflicts, and the tenuous peace in place at the time of this study. Less than one year
after the death of Tito there was notable unrest in the Kosovo province of Serbia.
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Discontent among ethnic Albanians in the area was able to spread throughout the
province and led to clashes with the Serbs. As a climate of increased nationalism grew,
long established fears of increasing political and territorial power along ethnic lines
became all the more prevalent. The use of internal armed forces and police were required
to control the disturbance. Conditions were now as such that small, localized incidents
had the potential for severe escalation. Throughout the 1980s tensions fostered
throughout Yugoslavias political decline and the world order experienced momentous
changes in its order with the fall of the Berlin Wall and soon thereafter collapse of the
Soviet Union. In the early 1990s a new series of wars occurred in the region. Often
referred to as the Yugoslav Wars or Balkan Wars, these conflicts form the essence of
current conditions. Initially, conflict began in 1991 after Slovenia asserted its
independence from Yugoslavia. Additional wars followed in Croatia from 1991 to 1995,
Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1992 to 1995 as independence from Yugoslavia was
pursued. There would also be war in the Serbian province of Kosovo from 1996 to 1999
and conflict in Macedonia during 2001. Throughout the fall of Yugoslavia, these
conflicts would continue to exhibit longstanding grievances among ethnic and religious
lines in addition to political and economic concerns. The level of violence, reported
atrocities, and magnitude of displaced civilians led to action and direct interventions from
the international community to include the United Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization, the US military.
As initially stated, the US Army continues to maintain a presence of deployed
soldiers in southeastern Europe, specifically in the areas of Kosovo and Sarajevo. The
focus of this paper is on the future as presented in the primary research question: what
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role might the US Army play in the future security of southeastern Europe? The time
period from the early nineties to present day will be most critical in the study of this
question. A brief historical framework provided beneficial depth for aiding in the
understanding of deep-seated issues impacting the contemporary problem throughout
many areas of the region. At this point, the study will transition to the literature review.
CHAPTER 2
Literature Review
The degree of turmoil over time and ongoing military operations in southeastern
Europe led to an abundance of written works for review. This study evaluated multiple
sources including government documents, scholarly writings, books, journal articles, and
other professional publications. Strategic documents, policies, and plans constitute one
important research subject. The second includes treaties, alliances, and agreements.
Some references required searching for the US Army link to broad and overarching goals,
while many others provided specific facts and insights. Books provided valuable depth to
form an understanding of not only the contemporary issues in southeastern Europe but
the origins of conflict. Articles added variety of perspective to the study, taking into
account varying backgrounds and experiences among the authors to include a wide range
of perspective and analysis. Often the most current and beneficial material to aid in
developing a future picture was acquired from the Department of State. Many notable
policy statements were found in the transcribed texts of prepared remarks.
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Documents, Policies, and Plans
What are the implications for the US Army in southeastern Europe from strategic
documents, policies, and plans? Investigating this question through the review of sources
is vital to the study as these written products focus and direct efforts throughout the
multiple levels of responsibility in the nation. The National Security Strategy of the
United States of America (NSS) is a foundation document for initiating the research
inquiry and therefore the first reference in the literature review. The NSS is the capstone
strategic document and guides the development of subordinate level strategies.
Contained in the NSS are broad objectives that outline the most important national
security goals. The US President articulated three strategic goals in the NSS: political
and economic freedom, peaceful relations with other states, and respect for human
dignity (Bush 2002). Beginning with these broad aims, future implications for US
Army activity in southeastern Europe must be assessed in the research analysis chapter
given the current state of tensions in the region and recent history of human rights abuses.
President Bush listed numerous methods to obtain the grand strategic goals. From the
NSS review, several methods showed potential linkage to southeastern Europe. The first
is to: champion aspirations for human dignity (Bush 2002). In this chapter of the NSS,
the area of Belgrade within Serbia and Montenegro is mentioned specifically as an
interest for the United States concerning human rights. The chapter goes on to articulate
that the United States will defend against repressive governments and oppose those
who resist the cause of human dignity (Bush 2002). A second method is to: work with
others to defuse regional conflicts (Bush 2002). Although not mentioned directly by
name, this element of strategic policy may also be applicable to southeastern Europe
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given ongoing tensions in the region. The third method is to: develop agendas for
cooperative action with the other main centers of global power (Bush 2002). Key
components from this statement that show linkage to the region center on building
coalitions, strengthening alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO), and improving relations with the European Union (EU). To conclude the NSS
review, the document sets the stage for developing defense and military strategies that
will yield more specific and focused guidance to assist in providing insight towards
future Army roles in the security of southeastern Europe.
The National Defense Strategy of the United States (NDS) supports the
Presidents strategic objectives. The NDS is authored by the Secretary of Defense
(SECDEF) and states the importance of its approach to deal with challenges we likely
will confront, not just those we are currently best prepared to meet (Rumsfeld 2005).
Specifically these challenges are articulated as: irregular, catastrophic, traditional, and
disruptive. Evaluating the set of challenges in during research analysis will greatly aid
the study. From the four strategic objectives outlined in the NDS, two in particular show
significant relevance to southeastern Europe. The first is: strengthen alliances and
partnerships (Rumsfeld 2005). This element of the strategy discusses how the
Department of Defense (DoD) will pursue increased cooperation and collaboration with
like-minded nations. It also emphasizes taking action towards helping allies and other
partners improve their defensive capabilities. Similar to the NSS, this objective also
suggests the need for inquiry into continued support of operations in southeastern Europe
with allies and partners. The second objective is: establish favorable security
conditions (Rumsfeld 2005). The pattern of regional instability leading to past
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interventions and current military operations is an example of this objective. In
summary, the NDS is a valuable document for this paper. The specifics for the US Army
are not there, nor should they be at this level. These strategic objectives continue to build
the foundation for additional research. They offer a focal point when confronted with a
multitude of conflicting views from varying sources.
TheNational Military Strategy of the United States (NMS) is an essential strategic
reference. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) authors the NMS and the
document outlines guidance for the Armed Forces. This document states four strategic
objectives and three supporting military objectives based on the concept of protect,
prevent, and prevail. From the review, two strategic objectives show particular promise
for contribution to this study. Establish security conditions conducive to a favorable
international order and strengthen alliances and partnerships to contend with common
challenges (Meyers 2004). Both objectives are nested closely with those of the
SECDEF and the President. It is important to note that increasing specificity is provided
with regard to the military ways and means for achieving success at the NMS level.
Concepts such as stability operations and post-conflict interagency operations are now
introduced. These operations are consistent with current US Army roles in southeastern
Europe and support efforts towards regional stability and collaborative service with allies.
The U.S. Army Strategic Planning Guidance is an important reference for review.
This is a 2005 document that presents the US Armys strategic imperatives, ten in all.
From the list of ten, two imperatives show particular applicability to southeastern Europe.
The first and most significant is: improve capabilities for stability operations
(Schoomaker 2005). This imperative references the region of southeastern Europe side
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by side with Iraq and Afghanistan. The section goes on to convey the importance of
Army efforts in contributing to conditions for peace through worldwide operations and
provides a detailed listing of case concepts in a joint, interagency, and multinational
environment. Emphasis on stability operations is such that the document announces the
formation of a Stability Operations Focus Area tasked to improve on current efforts. The
second imperative targeted for its significance to this study is: improve proficiencies
against irregular challenges (Schoomaker 2005). Important to this concept is
understanding the dangers of non-state actors to US interests in southeastern Europe as a
whole and more specifically to the US Army as a primary force provider. This planning
guidance is of notable utility as its design looks forward ten to twenty years to provide a
frame of reference for Army planners in addition to members of joint staffs. The fact of
the US Army currently engaged in war receives due emphasis with clear references to the
Global War on Terror (GWOT) and irregular type threats present in the contemporary
operational environment. Clear linkages to higher-level strategic documents are provided
for the reader, often through direct quotation. The Armys strategic guidance embraces
the concept of ends, ways, and means in support of capabilities based planning for
combatant commanders and national objectives around the world.
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Remarks to the Press in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina begins the review of
texts distributed by the US Department of State. Key aspects of regional policies and US
interests are common to these texts. The remarks are the transcribed commentary of
Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs. In this
capacity, he oversees US policy throughout the world. On October 12, 2005,
Ambassador Burns discussed the continuing plans for dialogue with Bosnia and
Herzegovina (BiH) along with Serbia and Montenegro (SaM). Ambassador Burns made
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note of his scheduled meetings with the political officials and leaders of multiple ethnic
groups in these areas. During the visit, the itinerary included meetings with Bosnian
Serbs, Kosovar Albanians, and Kosovar Serbs. This text presented the US interests as
follows: to help resolve some of the issues that have bedeviled this region for the last
decade or so, since the signing of the Dayton Accords (Burns 2005). The issue of war
criminals is also discussed in the text. Ambassador Burns highlights the firm stance of
the US with regard to war criminals from the Balkan Wars. Radovan Karadzic, Ratko
Mladic, and General Gotovina are mentioned by name as key individuals for referral to
trial at The Hague. Furthermore, the point is made clear that progress such as entry into
NATOs Partnership for Peace program for BiH and SaM and full NATO membership
for Croatia cannot occur until the war criminals turn themselves in or are apprehended
(Burns 2005). A theme here is that progress is occurring but much work remains ahead
in the region. Moving forward with governmental reforms, particularly with respect to
the quite unusual construct of the Tri-Presidency in BiH is seen as a logical course of
action. The future role of US armed forces in BiH is discussed by Ambassador Burns in
response to a question by a foreign journalist. Specifically, an ongoing NATO mission
and a NATO headquarters are mentioned with no references to changes in US
participation being identified. Ambassador Burns concludes his remarks on a positive
note reflecting on progress with security issues and expressing optimism for continued
governmental improvements.
Briefing on US Strategy for Kosovo is the second text reviewed from the remarks
of Ambassador Burns. The remarks were presented in Washington DC on November 9,
2005 subsequent to testimony before the US Senate earlier in the day. Contrary to its
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title, the remarks and questions are not limited to Kosovo and they touch on many of the
most challenging regional issues. Early on, Ambassador Burns expresses the desire to
remain actively involved towards the goal of building on the achievements in the Balkans
from the Dayton Accords. Before proceeding to comments on Kosovo, the issue of at
large war criminals and its impediment to progress with BiH and SaM is emphatically
stated. As for Kosovo, its future status is unresolved. Essentially, three options are under
consideration for Kosovo: continue the status quo as a province of SaM, obtain increased
autonomy as a province of SaM, or create an independent state. The US position is
presented as to not choosing a preferred outcome, but to support the decision reached
through negotiation of concerned parties. After Ambassador Burns outlines the
diplomatic efforts regarding the Kosovo final status talks, a question of future NATO and
US roles is presented. To this issue, the reply is paraphrased as follows: it is assumed
that Kosovo will require ongoing international support that speaks to the need for NATO
or an international presence (Burns 2005). SaM is described as most critical to future
stability in southeastern Europe, which goes directly to the need for a resolution of the
Kosovos status. The significance of ethnic demographics is not overlooked with a vast
majority of current residents identified as Albanian Muslims in contrast with a Serbian
Orthodox minority. At the later part of his remarks the question of a future process for
Montenegro to separate from Serbia comes forth. This is yet another example of the
complexity of the region with a tumultuous past and fragile present. As Ambassador
Burns closes, he stresses the desired outcome that a democratic process will prevail in the
resolution of issues within SaM.
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On November 21, 2005 Ambassador Burns presented remarks in Washington, DC
at the United States Institute for Peace titledBosnia Ten Years Later: Successes and
Challenges. Notable successes included: ending the war in Bosnia, NATO effectiveness
in peacekeeping without hostile casualties, improved economic conditions, rebuilding
multi-ethnic communities, and the return of many refugees. While acknowledging the
positive, much was identified as remaining to be done in the region. First and foremost
again is the call for assistance in the apprehending or facilitating the surrender of war
criminals. Secondly, concerns exist with regard to the damaging and destabilizing effects
from organized crime along with trafficking in humans, drugs and weapons (Burns 2005).
Overall, the US position remains consistently optimistic as it promotes continued efforts
to diminish political and ethnic divisions while encouraging stability and security.
Renewed US Commitment to the Balkans is the title of the second briefing
presented in Washington, DC on November 21, 2005 by Ambassador Burns.
Appropriately, the key points are congruent with the remarks earlier in the day. The
value of this text is obtained from extracting new information and amplifying key
positions and initiatives. Robust US diplomatic engagement tempered with patience is
stressed as a major theme. Without disregarding patience, 2006 is presented as a year of
decision for obtaining a final status for Kosovo and modernizing the governmental
institution in BiH from three presidents to one (Burns 2005). In addition to well-
established concerns regarding war criminals, NATOs authority to pursue their capture
is also addressed. On this subject, Ambassador Burns clearly states that NATOs
authority currently extends only to BiH. In further elaboration, the past use and readiness
for future use of military raids in BiH to pursue war criminals is explained. This text
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presents the continued US interest in positive changes for a region with significant
obstacles in the way of a long-term peace.
US Assistance to Bosnia and Herzegovina: Fiscal Years 1995-2005 is a fact sheet
produced in November of 2005 by the Department of State, Bureau of European and
Eurasian Affairs. The fact sheet is another mechanism to assist in building an
understanding of US policies and interests for a region. This document focuses on the
economic instrument of US national power and influence. In addition to its review of
past financial contributions, current priorities for the use of funds are summarized as
follows: expanding economic reform, strengthening institutions for democracy and
governance, emphasis on the rule of law, and building a viable state. (Department of
State 2005). Minority reintegration is also referenced. US financial investments in
reconstruction and economic development are linked to assisting with setting favorable
conditions for the return of refugees and internally displaced persons numbering in the
hundreds of thousands.
Treaties, Alliances, Agreements
What are the implications of various treaties, alliances and agreements for future
US Army operations in the region? A review of these documents can assist greatly in
illuminating the picture of US commitments, activities, and interests in southeastern
Europe. Exploring the Charter of the United Nations initiates this section of the research.
The United Nations (UN) Charter was ratified in 1945 with the United States as an
original signatory. This agreement among many nations, formed in the aftermath of
WWII, stresses the ideals of maintaining international peace and security, developing
friendly relations among nations, and cooperative efforts in solving international
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problems. The Charter is the guiding document for the UN and presents the foundation
of its operating procedures and requirements of member states. Organization of the
Charter includes nineteen chapters, from which two are identified for emphasis. Chapter
VI pertaining to peaceful settlement of disputes and Chapter VII in reference to threats
and breaches of the peace along with acts of aggression. Of the six principal divisions or
organs, the Security Council is key to this study. The Security Council consists of
permanent and non-permanent members. The United States is one of the five permanent
members, all of which carry great influence as evidenced by their veto power over
proposed actions. Key roles of the Security Council include the following: assessing
threats to peace or acts of aggression, recommending action in the form of resolutions,
and taking military action against aggression (United Nations 2005). Derived from the
Charter, UN influence with regard to security in southeastern Europe has been significant
since its inception and it remains so in current times.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is an alliance of nations from
North America and Europe, established by the Washington Treaty of 1949 to which the
United States was again an original signatory. The alliance endorses principles set forth
in the UN Charter and professes the aim to seek peaceful resolutions of disputes among
nations. Organization of the Treaty consists of fourteen articles with three in particular
selected for their relevance to this research. Article 3 presents the need for developing
individual and collective capacity to resist armed attacks. Article 5 introduces the
concept of collective defense under the precept that an attack against one member nation
shall be considered and attack against all. Article 6 provides detail in describing what
actions constitute an attack. Included in Article 6 are attacks against a members
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territory, armed forces, aircraft, and vessels (NATO 2005). Of the countries commonly
associated with southeastern Europe, only Slovenia, Greece, and Bulgaria are currently
NATO members. The NATO alliance has played a leading security role in Europe from
the Cold War period with the former Soviet Union through present day operations.
A review of the Dayton Accords is of great utility in forming an understanding of
southeastern European conflict in contemporary times. Diplomatic mediators from the
United States facilitated a settlement to hostilities during negotiations in Dayton, Ohio
during November of 1995. This process was formally known as the Dayton Proximity
Peace Talks and led directly to the General Framework Agreement for peace in Bosnia
and Herzegovina that was signed during December of 1995 in Paris, France. The
agreement was organized a series of annexes with the principal content to this study
found in Annex 1-A: Military Aspects. The US Department of State published a fact
sheet summarizing the key components of Annex 1-A which were the following:
continue cease-fire, withdraw foreign combatants, establish separation zone, establish
multinational military Implementation Force (IFOR) under NATO command, use of
force as needed by IFOR, establish Joint Military Commission (JMC), and report
information on mines, military personnel, and weapons to JMC (Department of State
2005). The General Framework agreement established the conditions for NATO
intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the mid 1990s.
The US military was a force provider for IFOR as part of the overall NATO
contingent. Considered NATOs first large-scale peacekeeping effort, the role of this
mission was to implement the peace and monitor compliance with the military terms of
the General Framework Agreement. IFOR would operate under the auspices of UN
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Chapter VII with regard to peace enforcement. Built from participating countries, the
approximate personnel strength was 60,000 of which the US contribution numbered
around 20,000. IFOR deployed initial forces rapidly after the peace agreement was
signed and operated through 1996. Operation Joint Endeavor, as the mission was named,
successfully achieved its principal objectives during its established time-line of one year.
A transition to a Stabilization Force (SFOR) mission would immediately follow (NATO
2001).
SFOR also operated as a peace enforcement mission under Chapter VII of the UN
Charter and was charged with the responsibility for: preventing resumption of hostilities,
promoting peace, and providing support to the civilian populace. US military forces
participated heavily in the NATO-led SFOR between 1996 and 1998 during Operation
Joint Guard and 1998-2004 during Operation Joint Forge. The SFOR mission began with
a deployed strength of approximately half the IFOR level and was subjected to scheduled
reviews throughout its tenure, often leading to further reductions in strength (NATO
2004). With its sustained achievements in maintaining peace and security, SFOR passed
the mission to the European Union Force (EUFOR). This force is established as
EUFOR- Operation Althea and the US does not participate. However, a US military
contingent does remain in Bosnia and Herzegovina as part of the small NATO
headquarters element.
The Kosovo Force (KFOR) has been in operation since 1999. KFOR is also a UN
Chapter VII, NATO-led multinational force. Its organization is four brigades, each with a
specified area of responsibility. Multinational Brigade-East (MNB-E) is the US-led
composition of forces and is under the command of a one star general officer. The US
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Army forces in the Kosovo province of Serbia and Montenegro have the primary mission
to conduct peace support operations. Components supporting the overall mission include
humanitarian assistance and ensuring basic law and order. US Army operations in
Kosovo are ongoing; however it is significant to note the following element of the MNB-
E mission statement: transitions responsibility to appropriate civil organizations and
eventually to local civilian leadership enabling KFOR forces to withdraw (NATO 2005).
Books
The value of books to this study is substantial. Book length writings provided
additional depth and perspective into the complex problems of southeastern Europe.
Research and individual experiences of the writers contributed greatly to forming an
understanding of the historical challenges in the region, what happened in the
contemporary time period from the 1990s to present, and most importantly here, the US
involvement.
Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold Warinitiated the review.
Susan Woodward wrote this book in 1995 and the lists experiences in the region as a
member of UN operations in support of humanitarian assistance and peacekeeping. The
author provided an in-depth assessment of the factors that contributed to the collapse of
Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. Key drivers to the problematic situation are presented as
the disintegration of law, order, and effective governmental leadership. Political
disintegration, particularly as it relates to momentous changes across the international
stage at this time, is a primary concept in the book. Focusing excessively on the
centuries-old ethnic hatreds in the region is identified as a flaw in the conflict analysis of
Western governments and additional members of the international community. This
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book describes a series of local wars in Yugoslavia and the rapid movement towards
dissolution after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. The author presents that the United States
and additional Western powers underestimated the strategic importance of the conflict at
first; however, interest in the problem grew significantly after several years of
unsuccessful international efforts at stabilizing the crisis.
Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History is a 1993 book written by Robert
Kaplan. Given the dramatic changes occurring in the region at that time, it is important
to note that the author completed the book three years earlier in 1990. Also, the authors
specialty is travel writing as opposed to a strict academic or think-tank style and
presentation. However, the authors insight, analysis, and commentary on the region are
highly regarded and sought-out by many. The book lists presentations by the author at
both the US Armys War College and Command and General Staff College in addition to
media appearances on C-SPAN and CNN. The author discusses numerous countries
across southeastern Europe, some within but most outside of the former Yugoslavia.
Ethnic fissuring is a phase used by the author in reference to conditions among Serbs,
Muslims, Croats, and other groups. This component, while given due emphasis, is
considered only as a part of the larger picture encompassing the authors perceptions of:
declining economies, the erosion of communist power structures, and a history of ethnic
rivalries (Kaplan 1993). The book presented a valuable historical background that aided
in forming an understanding of the road to contemporary conflict in areas such as
Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, and Macedonia.
In 2003, R. Craig Nation wrote War in the Balkans, 1991-2002. The author is a
Professor of Strategy at the US Army War College and has extensive experience in the
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scholarly study of security matters in Europe. This work takes an approach to address the
region across historical, cultural, political, and strategic perspectives. A description of
the atrocities against people, their scope, and impacts are provided. The book examines
the roles of entities such as the UN, NATO and the EU and references their function as a
type of protectorate in the region. Additionally, the author establishes the geographic
connection with other nations in Europe as a plausible reason for why robust intervention
from the international community would eventually come to the Balkans as opposed to
other troubled spots in areas such as Africa and South America. The strategic
significance to the leading world powers of restoring regional stability is put forth as well
as an understanding of international political competition and its accompanying
complexities. The author analyzes the ascension to power by local actors and identifies
security concerns from a rise in militant Islam. This book provides a review in depth of
the challenges faced by Yugoslavia following the death of Josip Tito, through the rise of
renewed nationalism, separation, dissolution, and war in the 1990s. Particular utility to
the study is found in material from the book pertaining to fighting in Bosnia and Kosovo,
and the ethnic violence in Macedonia.
Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation is a 1995 book written by Laura Silber and Allen
Little to complement a television production chronicling the fall of Yugoslavia. The
authors both work primarily as correspondents with Laura Silber covering the Balkans for
theFinancial Times and Allen Littles association being with the BBC in their radio and
television news departments. This book has a number of strong suites, with the first
consisting of its detailed listing and explanation of key players or cast of characters as
described by the authors. Military, political, and diplomatic leaders are included to help
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frame the complexity of the turmoil. A central premise is that Yugoslavia was destroyed
by men opposed to a peaceful transition from socialism to democracy, primarily due to
the drive towards furthering individual interests. The book outlines Slobodan
Milosevics grand strategy to expand power and influence throughout all of the six
former Yugoslav republics while ultimately realizing the potential for only a greater
Serbia. The authors present in-depth accounts from eyewitnesses concerning tragedies
such as ethnic cleansing at Srebrenica in Bosnia and massive evacuations of Muslims.
Insight into the evolution of the United States role is provided with candor, initially
presented with the quote from US Secretary of State James Baker while serving under
President George H.W. Bush We dont have a dog in that fight (Silber and Little 1995).
Early intervention is described as poorly handled by European states, leading to this
quote in reference to the concept of strategic reality: If the US does not take the lead,
then no one does (Silber and Little 1995). The book describes the US role from the
initial use of the military instrument of power in support of NATOs bombing campaign,
through diplomacy in Dayton, Ohio to set the conditions for a cessation of hostilities
among belligerents, and onward to the initial success of the NATO-led, sixty thousand
strong IFOR.
The Fall of Yugoslavia: The Third Balkan Waris a book originally published in
1992 with updates through 1996 in this the third revised edition. The author, Misha
Glenny, is noted as an award-winning correspondent for the BBC working extensively
throughout central and southeastern Europe. The books illustrations include maps that
clearly visualize the geopolitical boundaries of southeastern Europe and the former
Yugoslav republics. Additional maps depict the ethnic majority provinces of Bosnia and
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Herzegovina and areas of ethnic control from the Dayton Agreement. The illustrations
are a valuable aid in understanding the divisions among ethnic lines and complexity in
the region. A majority of the book follows a narrow time-line of the conflict in
Yugoslavia between 1990 and 1992, and therefore allows considerable detail to its
description. Internal and external political conflicts are revisited as well as the various
military and paramilitary organizations such as regular army, National Guard, irregular
forces, and special police. Slobodan Milosevic is portrayed as the most influential post-
war politician in Yugoslavia since Tito (Glenny 1996). Regional strategic issues of the
time are identified in the book. First is the concern of growing national aspirations
among the ethnic Albanian population in Albania proper, Kosovo, and western
Macedonia. Second is the need for intensive and ongoing US diplomacy in the region to
help maintain a delicate balance of stability. Contained in the later portion of the book is
the authors description of renewed conflict in 1995 following a deadly mortar attack in
Sarajevo. The book moves forward to the challenges experienced by the United Nations
Protection Force (UNPROFOR) and its leadership. Subsequently, the increased US role
is presented, again from diplomacy in Dayton to military on the ground in the IFOR.
Ivo Daalder and Michael OHanlon authored the 2000 book entitled Winning
Ugly: NATOs War to Save Kosovo. Daalder is listed as a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution with experience on the National Security Council (NSC) staff and US policy
coordination. OHanlon is also listed a senior fellow at Brookings; has experience in the
Congressional Budget Office, teaches at the collegiate level, and a specialty in US
defense strategy. As indicated by the title, this book narrows the focus in southeastern
Europe to the Kosovo province. The authors present that NATO was successful overall
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in its mission to stop the violence in Kosovo, but with significant difficulties and
challenges along the way. The book chronicles the conflict explained as primarily
between the NATO alliance and Slobodan Milosevic. Named Operation Allied Force,
the NATO campaign of seventy-eight days is developed from its initial ineffectiveness to
the withdrawal of Serb forces from Kosovo and the diplomatic agreement in place for the
NATO-led international force to enforce the peace. The magnitude of conflict on the
ground is evident as the authors recount reports of thousands of dead Kosovar Albanians
and displaced persons numbering in the hundreds of thousands. Military difficulties are
not omitted with issues such as targeting problems from inclement weather, complex
coordination requirements, and collateral damage included in the text. Of particular note
was the benefit from the books appendices. A detailed chronology of events is listed
first followed by specific military implications such as use of the B-2 Bomber and Navy
Tomahawk Missiles as part of the US joint force participation in the NATO operation. In
the final appendix, key documents to include UN Resolutions, NATO Statements, and the
Military Technical Agreement are provided to link the political and diplomatic objectives
to military actions.
Articles
The review of articles from varying sources brought additional points of view to
the research. A diverse group of sources was sought-out to avoid a channeling of
information and thought towards the agenda of any one particular interest group. Of
notable value from the review of articles was the inclusion of many works with recent
publication dates. Views and assessments from the current and past few years contribute
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greatly this study in the exploration of future roles for the US Army in southeastern
Europe.
The Balkans Ten Years After: From Dayton to the Edge of Democracy is from a
2005 issue ofCurrent History and authored by Lenard J. Cohen. Identifying the Dayton
agreement as the point of departure towards a more prosperous and secure southeastern
Europe begins the authors analysis. An increased presence by the EU is a recurring
theme. The 1999 Stability Pact for Southeastern Europe (SPSEE) is introduced as a
collaborative agreement between the US, EU, and Russia. The EUs Common Security
Strategy of 2003 is highlighted by the author in reference to the zone of instability around
Europe, the need to partner with the US, and a priority of effort sequentially focused on
political, economic, and military instruments of power in the pursuit of strategic aims
(Cohen 2005). Here again, requirements for US armed forces in support of operations in
Iraq and Afghanistan are amplified. To address US challenges stemming from large-
scale deployments, establishment of small US bases in neighboring states to facilitate a
prompt, as needed, response is put forth as a strategic element. Furthermore, the author
makes the point that as of 2004 over 80% of the troops performing missions in Balkan
hotspots were in fact assembled from the EU. In the conclusion, particular concern is
noted in reference to a potential growth of transnational terrorist activity in addition to the
long-standing territorial disputes, and frictions among ethnicities.
Back to the Balkans is a 2005 article by Edward Joseph published in the journal
Foreign Affairs. In this writing, the author explored ongoing concerns with corruption,
ethnic tensions, and instability in the Kosovo province of Serbia. Contained herein is the
assertion that all is not well regardless of decreased international media attention on the
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region. The potential for violence between the minority Serb and majority Albanian
ethnic populations continues to simmer. Further exacerbating the problem is a frustration
with the lack of tangible progress in economic opportunities. Additionally, while
acknowledging the benefit of Milosevics removal from the scene and into the auspices
of The Hague for trial on war crimes, the political leadership of the province remains
tenuous, as does the final status of Kosovo itself.
EUFOR-IA: Changing Bosnias Security Arrangements is an article from 2004
produced under corporate authorship by the International Crisis Group (ICG). The focus
is on the impending transition to a European Union-led peacekeeping force (EUFOR) for
Bosnia and Herzegovina to replace the NATO-led SFOR. Objectives of two key players
are presented as follows: EU eagerness to bolster its credibility as a security actor and
the US desire to declare at least one of its long-term military deployments successfully
over (ICG 2004). The article makes clear that although the security arrangements are
scheduled to soon change, security issues and threats continue. Among the numerous
concerns presented are: weapons smuggling, apprehension of remaining war criminals,
border security, extremist groups, and instability in Kosovo. With regard to extremist
groups, further elaboration is provided on the specific threats from persons associated
with radical Islam and those Serbs seeking a partition of Republic Srpska from Bosnia.
To expand on the Kosovo concern, a fear of destabilization reaching Bosnia is discussed.
The point is illustrated by purporting ineffective control of riots in Kosovo during March
of 2004 by the armed peacekeepers already on the ground in the capacity of KFOR.
An additional article from the ICG in 2004 is titled Serbias U-turn. Here again,
the relevancy is presented in description of unfavorable conditions in the state crossing
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political, economic, and security milieus. The article highlights concern over anti-Serb
violence in Kosovo that included attacks against property and Orthodox churches coupled
with unease that an ethnic Albanian movement for partition of Kosovo may take hold.
Pertaining to economics, a dismal rate of overall expansion and even a decrease in the
measure of manufacturing output bring forward Serbias lack of significant progress in
their post-Milosevic era. Anti-Western sentiment is mentioned as prevalent among
numerous members of the legislature in addition to assessments that nationalist rhetoric
continues along with advancing positions that do not favor governmental reforms.
Staying the Course is from a 2004 edition ofNATO Review and authored by
Robert Serry and Christopher Bennett. Central to the article is NATOs role in the
Balkans post-SFOR. An overall picture of slow progress in the region is presented in
addition to plans for a continued presence, albeit on a smaller scale. The potential for
large-scale conflict in the future is assessed as minimal while not discounting ongoing
threats to peace. The goal for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Serbia and Montenegro
(SaM) to join the Partnership for Peace program continues, although the impediment
from indicted war criminals remaining at large continues. Details for NATOs role in
BiH include a headquarters led by a one-star US general supported by a staff of
approximately 150 with missions of counter-terrorism, apprehending suspected war
criminals, and intelligence gathering (Serry and Bennett 2004). Continued support to the
KFOR mission in SaM is stated in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution
1244 and the Military Technical Agreement. Additional information is discussed by the
authors regarding Macedonia in reference to the presence of a small NATO contingent
assisting with the implementation of state defense reforms.
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Also fromNATO Review is the 2004 article authored by Gerald Knaus and
Nicholas Whyte with the title ofDebate: Does the International Presence in the Balkans
Require Radical Restructuring? The authors present their agreements as well as differing
assessments of the best path forward in the region. An argument is the made that the
reduction from approximately 70,000 international troops in the region to a current figure
around 25,000 is indicative of significant improvement in stability. A cautionary
counter-point is presented in the form of underestimating remaining hard-security threats
to include potentially violent uprisings in multiple states. The difficulty in defining the
most effective role, and how expansive of a role for NATO, the UN and others is shown
as challenging task with no clear answer. One course of action stresses security and
protection while the other proposes robust involvement in additional domains such as
political institutions and economic programs. As a final note, the will of the people in
obtaining meaningful reforms and stability is stressed as critical.
Carl Bildt is the author ofAnalysis: Between Integration and Disintegration.
This 2004 article fromNATO Review presents the macro view of a region challenged by
those who seek to move towards inclusion in a greater Europe verses those who do not.
Expansion of initiatives to improve travel, trade, and economic conditions are advocated.
The analysis identified Kosovo as the most difficult regional issue and projected a
continuation of the military presence for years to come. As for why Kosovo, the author
stressed a likely volatility surrounding the topic of final status talks and the lack of
optimism for meaningful quality of life improvements as among the most pressing issues.
Continuing the look forward, the EU is expected to take on a much larger role in regional
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security, in fact a leadership role described by the author as similar to that first held by
the UN and then NATO.
European Securitypublished Soft Security Threats in the New Europe: The Case
of the Balkan Regionby Fotios Moustakis in 2004. Geostrategic stability and security are
reviewed in the context of assessing risk to greater Europe posed by under performing
states in the Balkans. While not discounting underlying dangers from hard threats such
as renewed armed conflict, the focus it towards dangers posed by soft security threats in
the realm of environmental, political, and economic struggles. The powerful roles of
NATO and the EU in southeastern Europe are highlighted not only for the provision of
armed forces but to their potential for regional improvements through security
cooperation activities.
In a 2002 issue ofParameters, P.H. Liotta and Cindy Jebb authoredMacedonia:
End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End. The writers proposed that the US has
interests in the Balkans that should not ignored, even with the monumental requirements
associated with the Global War on Terror (GWOT) ignited by the September 11, 2001
attacks on American soil. Acknowledging that the Balkans is nowhere near the current
main effort of US military activity, the authors caution not to quickly dismiss the
previous decade of significant involvement both militarily and financially in southeastern
Europe, as much work remains. Taking a look a Macedonias struggles on multiple
fronts brings a recommendation for continued engagement. Civil unrest and
governmental ineffectiveness are linked to the National Liberation Army (NLA) with its
composition of ethnic Albanians. Strategic concerns are abridged from the text as
follows: professed neutrality among multiple ethnicities can not hold indefinitely,
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Macedonia needs to move closer to European integration, and that a commitment is
required to take advantage of opportunities for regional progress (Liotta and Jebb 2002).
In 1999 the journalForeign Affairspublished a William W. Hagen article titled
The Balkans Lethal Nationalism. Written in the midst of NATOs US heavy
intervention during the air war, the article examines origins of conflict from times of
Ottoman control forward. Two competing views are presented in the form of inherent
ancient hatreds verses the motives of individuals seeking to expand their power and
influence. A note is made of the Christian desires for liberation from the dominant
influence at the hands of Ottoman Turks. Additionally, the author presents the
motivations behind the concept of greater state societies, linking desires to regain
territory perceived as lost. Moving forward the 1990s, the author identifies a significant
concern that US leaders were overly focused on nationalism at the expense of developing
a clear understanding of legitimate Serbian interests during the civil war. A thought
provoking analogy to group alliances in US prisons is introduced. Here, the plight of
relatively poor people in the Balkans, most without the wherewithal to start life
elsewhere, are essentially forced to ally upon ethnic lines for survival in similarity to
racial groups in prisons. In the analysis and recommendations, the author professes that
the US and NATO alliance are facing a deep commitment of a long-term nature in Serbia.
Furthermore, the necessity of returning displaced Kosovar Albanians is stressed as a key
aspect of forging a lasting peace agreement.
The reference materials provided the means to execute a wide-ranging inquiry
into the research questions at hand. Written works of numerous variations and sources
formed the body of knowledge from which to develop the study further towards the
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ultimate goal, projecting future roles for the US Army in the security of southeastern
Europe. The study will now move forward to concentrate on research methodology.
CHAPTER 3
Research Methodology
To address the questions at hand in a logical manner requires the selection of an
applicable and appropriate method. For this study, the qualitative analysis research
model was selected. Among many reasons to select this approach, the utilization of
reference works from the literature review proved dominant. The study consists of a
variety of sources, to include primary and secondary. These references express the
thoughts of individual authors in differing forms that do not on whole favor an alternate
approach. Quite basically, the writings from each source comprise the data for evaluation
in this study. Every effort is made to conduct a thorough review and analysis of materials
to facilitate conclusions that are valid and supportable by facts. Interpretation of content,
evaluation of sources, and development of an understanding of each authors key
messages are identified as critical enablers for success in qualitative analysis. The theme
for this particular model is consistent with the concept of inductive analysis where
references are explored in depth to facilitate the discovery of findings as opposed to
simply proving or disproving a preconceived supposition. Identifiable strengths and
weaknesses are found across the methods of scientific inquiry. Pertaining chiefly to
qualitative analysis are advantages such as the ability to inquire at great depth and detail
into a subject matter of choice along with great flexibility to develop a wide-ranging base
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of knowledge for the study. With regard to limitations or disadvantages, findings from a
qualitative study speak exclusively to the case under consideration and are not easily, and
commonly not at all, transferable to additional questions of inquiry. To complete this
study a six-step method was selected in accordance with standard practices of inquiry.
These steps allowed for a logical progression throughout the course of this research
towards the goal of obtaining valid conclusions. At this point, each step in the
methodology will receive individual discussion.
Identification and Isolation of the Problem
Exploring future roles for the US Army in the security of southeastern Europe is
an interesting and relevant question for study. Here are some reasons why.
Overwhelming change in the complexion of European security occurred following the
end of the Cold War and fall of the former Soviet Union leading directly to a
reexamination and ultimate reduction of US armed forces deployed forward in Europe.
Furthermore, the subsequent dissolution of the former Yugoslav republic destabilized the
southeastern region to the point of concern requiring international intervention with
armed forces to separate belligerents and regain order. Studying the US Army
contribution over time and looking for trends into the future has additional significance in
light of the Global War on Terror (GWOT). The expenditure of US resources in terms of
financial cost, armed forces utilization, and diplomatic efforts are extraordinary in
prosecuting the GWOT, yet challenging conditions requiring attention remain across the
globe. As the GWOT continues, close investigation is most noteworthy for additional
missions requiring US expenditures across the instruments of national power. Even for
the US, resources are in fact limited. GWOT also applies to southeastern Europe, as
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terrorist threats from extremist Islamic cells significant to note. Additionally, the
regions history as a friction point of violence and the spread of turmoil cannot be
underestimated without great risk.
In speaking to the larger implications, US national strategic goals are not assured
in the region. Challenges exist with regard to political and economic freedom, peaceful
relations with other states, and respect for human dignity. Moreover, as Europe is
changing and developing new forms of collective security, another look into
organizations such as the UN and NATO is warranted.
Within the context of prior works, this US Army centric study is complementary
to the research and analysis from other authors products that undertook an expanded
view of US military or sovereign states implications in the region. This study takes the
next look forward after a major period of military thought and comment in the post-
dissolution of Yugoslavia era.
Development of a Hypothesis
Foremost to the importance for selection of the research question is a strategic
focus. To this aim, selecting a question with clear implications at the US national
security level is imperative. An additional thought is the limitation to the US Army to
narrow the scope for a targeted utility to current and future planners, military students,
and others exploring southeastern Europe. Thirdly, the ongoing presence of US Army
forces in the region presents a topic based not as a hypothetical possibility but as a real-
world question of how the current role will evolve. Within this realm of potential, the
role could stay the same, increase, decrease, or even go away in its entirely.
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Several considerations are evaluated in the construction of the research inquiry.
First, the position it taken that the US National Command Authority will not ignore a
marked increase in regional conflict due to identified strategic interest. Also, it is noted
that the US Army leads as the military instrument of national power with regard to land
operations in southeastern Europe. In addition, a pattern of US military involvement has
in fact transcended US Presidential Administrations across both the Democratic and
Republican political parties. In acknowledgement to the fact that philosophies and
policies among differing political administration will occur, benefit to national objectives
should remain supreme in the development of security policies.
Establishing a way of thinking about the problem is essential to the study. To
begin, the overarching construct is one of no preconceived notions as to future Army
roles in the region. For this work, references from the varying sources all received due
consideration and evaluation. Potential contributions were not dismissed summarily out
of hand. The approach essentially required executing a plan to the read the literature,
compile the salient facts, and then move forward to the analytic process.
Collection and Classification of Sources
Pertaining to the materials referenced, classifications generally consisted of the
following types: strategic, organizational, theoretical, and historical. In the strategic
domain are the US national strategy documents such as theNational Security Strategy
(NSS),National Defense Strategy (NDS), and others, in addition to incorporating US
Army specific documents, for example, theArmy Strategic Planning Guidance. Taking a
look at organizational documents, works include multiple entities such as the United
Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the International Crisis Group.
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Scholarly journals such asForeign Affairs andEuropean Security contribute
meaningfully to the collection of theoretical perspectives in the study. With regard to
covering the historical aspects, books are primary with additional benefit noted in a
Current History article by Professor Lenard Cohen.
The key components of approaching the study from a critical perspective are
encapsulated in credibility, suitability, and feasibility. In this application, credibility of
the source is an extremely important attribute. The nature of research based on the
written works of others demands credibility. Proliferation of opinions and agendas of a
dubious nature are made possible by the Internet and can easily infiltrate the scholarly
process. Suitability also plays an important role in the methodology. Considered herein,
suitability is expressed in the form of linkage with strategic goals and keeping with
direction provided from the highest levels of executive leadership. Quite basically, the
recommendation by an author of a course of action that was inconsistent with national
objectives would result in an unfavorable assessment of its suitability. Completing the
trio of critical approach concepts is feasibility. Can the course of action succeed and
accomplishing the tasks at hand? For example, does the authors recommendation
consider the challenges of finite resources and competing demands?
Articulating a rationale as to why certain critical approach types are selected is a
necessary inclusion to the methodology. First and foremost, without a consistent finding
of credible sources, a qualitative study is greatly handicapped if not doomed in its attempt
at producing reliable and valid conclusions, with the very nature of this method being
generally absent of numerically derived results. Additionally, this is an Army study, and
therefore, strong consideration for how to proceed is extracted from established methods
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of military decision making such as the 2005 doctrinal guidance published in Army Field
Manual 5-0 with regard to suitability and feasibility.
Organization of Facts into Results
The discoveries of pertinent facts lend themselves to discussion in light of
differentiating characteristics. To the goal of constructing an ordered study, facts here
are essentially considered as matters of policy, agreement, or history. Case in point, facts
as matters of policy are found in many sources including US strategic documents and
official remarks of governmental leaders. When Secretary Rumsfeld states how the
Department of Defense strategic objectives in the NDS will support the President, this is
a fact of policy. When the Department of State releases the transcribed remarks of
Ambassador Burns outlining US concerns regarding at large war criminals and calls for
their referral to The Hague, this again provides a verifiable fact of policy.
A second category of facts is presented as matters of agreement. In explanation,
when the North Atlantic Treaty, signed by the US, articulates the concept of collective
defense in Article V, the requirements contained therein are considered facts.
Furthermore, when the UN Charter refers to a Chapter VII peace enforcement mission,
the accompanying military powers are valid facts based on the agreement signed by
members.
Facts as matters of historical record are the third concept in the discussion. In
support of this position, a review of US military forces utilized during SFOR operations
illuminates multiple facts associated with US Army involvement in Bosnia and
Herzegovina over a particular course of time. Additionally, exploring historical writings
brings in to view many facts with regard to regional turmoil and conflict.
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From the review of facts progress towards results follows. Patterns of similarity
develop which form the basis for sound findings. These trends from the analysis of facts
are an essential element in the methodology present in this study. With regard to
relationships among facts, they can stand independently or share interdependence with
another type. Again, the key aspect in this phase is organizing the facts. Categories of
facts are simply established as a procedural aid and not considered all encompassing.
Overall, it is far more important to accurately identify and apply a fact rather than just
classify.
Formation of Conclusions
Ultimately, the search for valid and supportable conclusions is of the utmost
importance. The process to achieve findings is obtained from analysis of the research
methodology elements contained in step three (collection and classification) and step four
(organization of facts into results). The intent is to show findings derived from the
application of a logical series of actions replicated consistently during the study. To
achieve the goal of valid and supportable conclusions the sequence of actions are
surmised as follows: collect references; classify references, test references (credibility,
suitability, feasibility), identify facts, organize facts, analyze facts, and apply results.
Synthesis and Presentation
Incorporating findings from the analysis into answering the research questions is
the essence of synthesis in the methodology. As for the method of presentation, this
study first applies results to the primary question under consideration and then proceeds
to address the supporting questions. In review of the inquiry at hand, the primary
question is: what role might the US Army play in the future security of southeastern
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Europe? Secondary question one asks: what are implications from strategic documents,
policies, and plans? Secondary question two explores implications from treaties,
alliances, and agreements. This technique for presentation comprises the analysis chapter
and is followed with a final chapter for conclusions and recommendations. In this
chapter, summaries of analyses are given, as well as taking a larger look at what the
results mean. At the culmination point for the study, observation and assessment of the
process on whole is provided for consideration of additional research areas and
approaches to maximize success with future endeavors. With this being said, the
overview of methodology is complete and the study progresses to analysis.