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Transcript of Stephen D. Covey RamblingsOnTheFutureOfHumanity.blogspot.com.
ASTEROID CAPTURE FOR SPACE SOLAR POWER:
A PROJECT PLAN
Stephen D. CoveyRamblingsOnTheFutureOfHumanity.blogspot.com
ASTEROID CAPTURE FOR SPACE SOLAR POWER: A PROJECT PLAN Assumptions Project Phases
1. Capture 99942 Apophis into Earth orbit2. Launch mining & manufacturing tools3. Launch construction shacks & workers4. Construct & deploy Solar Power Satellites5. Construct a worker/colonist habitat6. Repeat 4 & 5 with remaining asteroid resources
Return On Investment Areas for Research & Development Summary
ASSUMPTIONS Capture an Asteroid into LEO: 99942 Apophis Timeframe:
Project start in 2027, Launch capture mission in early 2028, Orbit capture April 2030 Mining mission starts 2030
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launch vehicle Pricing in 2011 dollars Worker launch costs $24M -> $1M/person Not included in budgets (addressed later):
In-space worker salaries Most R&D costs
Sales of energy funds everything
Capture Apophis into Earth Orbit The capture mission begins 2027:
Assemble tugship in LEO Intercept injection via lunar slingshot Oct-2027 5 months to intercept 10 months of thrust to change Apophis orbit 3 month coast Earth slingshot - April 13, 2029 12 month coast Lunar slingshot & drop into Earth orbit, Apr-
2030 Capture mission duration 30+ months
Tugship for Apophis Capture
Launch into LEO: Core ship (crew quarters, life support, 50 t) Fuel/thruster assemblies (100 t) Solar panels (200m, 12 megawatts, 100 t) Total equipment: $1.5B, 250 tons 5 launches ($600M)
Launch assembly crew & construction shack: $1.6B (with training, tools, supplies, 2 launches)
Assemble (12-18 person-months) Launch mission crew & supplies: 1 launch @
$100M Total capture: $3.8B
LAUNCH MINING & MANUFACTURING TOOLS Solar power generator: 1 launch, $200M Mining facilities: 2 launches, $400M Solar smelter, gas refining, metals: 5 launches,
$1B Steel production: 5 launches, $1B Rolling mill: 3 launches, $600M Finished metal product plant: 2 launches, $400M Silicon refinery, solar panel manufacturing (3
launches, $600M) Slag processing & handling: (1 launch, $200M) Total estimate: $4.4B equipment & 22
launches spanning 2030-2031
LAUNCH WORKERS & HOUSINGYear Worker
sSteel Production Tons/Day
SPS Builds / Year
Per Worker Cost
Total Cost To Date
2030
36 Setup $33M $9.4B
2031
500 100 Setup $10M $14.4B
2032
1500 200 1 $5M $19.6B
2033
3500 400 2 $2.5M $25.0B
2034
7500 800 4 $1M $29.8B
2035
800 8
CONSTRUCT A 5 GW SPS
Solar panels (16 square kilometers) Steel support structures Microwave transmitting antenna (1
km) Microwave transmitter (from Earth) Protective shield Total mass 25,000 tons
DEPLOY THE SPSs
Build near asteroid in HEO Deploy into GEO (2 km/s) Deployment fuel (1,000 tons) Install microwave transmitter
launched from Earth Construct ground receiving station
10+ km rectenna $1 B (born by receiving electric utility)
KALPANA ONE HABITAT - DESIGN
100 meter radius, 130 meter wide cylinder
Spinning at 3 rpm 10 t/m2 slag shield (1.6 Mt) 1-inch thick steel shell (28 kt) 126 kt of interior steel structures Solar Power (6kw/person, 50 Mw
total) Capacity 8,000 workers
KALPANA ONE HABITAT - FEATURES
Lots of room (square feet): 5,500,000 agricultural: 2,500,000 residential (300 sf/person) 1,500,000 office, light industrial, retail 1,000,000 storage & overhead 50x130 meter core zero-G cylinder for
research & industry 12 acre cylindrical park (100x250
meters)
REPEAT UNTIL RESOURCES EXHAUSTED 8 Year Plan
1 habitat for 8,000 people 15 five-gigawatt solar power satellites Over 90% of Apophis remains
Continue Building 8 SPSs/Year Global Demand: 2 Tw (400 SPSs) More (& Larger) Habitats
Near GEO LEO Mars?
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
Year Event Expense
Revenue Cash Flow (Sales of Electricity)
Cash Flow (Sales of SPSs)
2027 Launch $3.8B $3.8B $3.8B
2030 M&M $5.6B $9.4B $9.4B
2033 1st SPS $15.6B $1.3B $23.7B $14.6B
2034 3 SPSs $4.8B $3.9B $24.6B $5.2B
2035 7 SPSs $1.6B $9.1B $17.1B $43.6B
2036 15 SPSs $0 $19.5B $0.8B $82.0B
2037+ $19.5B $20.3B +$40 B/yr
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
Heavy lift (or super heavy lift) launch vehicles Space taxies / trucks (tugships) Long-term life support Zero-G mining, smelting, refining,
manufacturing Manufacturing solar panels High-efficiency multi-gigawatt microwave
transmitters / receivers Large-scale in-space construction techniques
(of SPS and habitats) with limited resources
CONCLUSION
2036: Breakeven ($25B peak outflow)
2037: $19.5B/year Profits (10% Apophis)
2053: (assuming +8 SPS/year) 150 SPSs deployed $195B/year revenue 12 orbital habitats; 100,000 person
capacity The asteroid Apophis is only a memory
But there are more asteroids out there!