July 2020

Statista Advertising & Media OutlookProduct & Methodology

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What is the Statista Advertising & Media Outlook?

The Statista Advertising & Media Outlook is a tool that provides key market indicators, independent forecasts, and detailed market insights regarding two interlinked topics relevant to decision-makers in almost every industry. Market data is often available in inconsistent forms, scopes, and segmentations, which makes it impossible to get reliable comparisons between two or more data sets. Our goal is to simplify your research and planning by providing all the necessary data for 14 segments in 46 countries with a clearly defined market scope. The outlook covers everything from TV & Video Advertising to Video Games and Books – and will be expanded to the even more segments with further data splits.

The Statista Advertising & Media Outlook is built on resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research and analyst experience. We evaluate the status quo, monitor trends, and create an independent forecast of market developments of the advertising and media world.

The tool provides data on financial operating figures (ad spending or revenue) and user-related figures (audience reach, number of users, user penetration, average revenue per user (ARPU)) – on the platform and in multiple download formats.

The data for each market is updated twice a year and our analysts create reports for the most relevant segments, giving an extensive overview of the current state of these two topics and its latest trends.

About the Statista Advertising & Media Outlook (1/2)

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

The Statista Advertising & Media Outlook provides essential data for 14 major segments in 46 countries

TV & Video

Music, Radio & Podcast

Games

Newspapers & Magazines

Books

TV & Video Advertising

Search Advertising

Social Media Advertising

Out-of-Home Advertising

Digital Banner Advertising

Print Advertising

Audio Advertising

Digital Classifieds

Advertising Media

46countries

8years (2017–2024)

14segments

11,000+interactive statistics

Statista Global Consumer Survey

The Statista Global Consumer Survey is a worldwide online survey exclusively carried out by Statista in 55 countries and covering more than 700,000 consumers in 2020. The relevant part for our Advertising & Media Outlook of the survey exactly matches the market scopes and thus gives us first-hand information on media adoption and user penetration in each market.

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The data of the Statista Advertising & Media Outlook is composed of countless pieces of information. Our analysts build on Statista’s primary research, relevant market data taken from independent databases, various market and macroeconomic indicators, historical developments, current trends, reported performance indicators from the key market players, and Statista interviews with market experts. Continuous market monitoring allows us to detect and consider relevant changes along the value chain of the advertising and media economy.

The market estimates for our 46 core countries, the world’s largest economies, such as the United States, China, and Germany, are derived using a combined top-down and bottom-up approach. Key performance indicators from the key market players on country level (or regional level) are taken into account as well as regional consumption data. Modeling is based on a broad range of industry-specific and national sources, the Statista Global Consumer Survey, and our industry knowledge. Demographic user data on digital markets in core countries has been collected from the Statista Global Consumer Survey.

About the Statista Advertising & Media Outlook (2/2)

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

The key to our data is independent market modeling with macroeconomic indicators and primary research

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Statista Advertising & Media Outlook coverage

Country coverage

Countries

1: The Advertising & Media Outlook will be expanded by another 104 countries in Q4 2020Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

The Advertising & Media Outlook provides market data and in-depth analysis for 46 countries

Europe Turkey Asia

Austria United Kingdom China

Belgium India

Czechia Americas Indonesia

Denmark Argentina Japan

Finland Brazil Pakistan

France Canada Saudi Arabia

Germany Chile South Korea

Greece Colombia Thailand

Ireland Dominican Rep. Vietnam

Italy Mexico

Lithuania Peru Australia & Oceania

Netherlands United States Australia

Norway New Zealand

Poland Africa

Portugal Kenya

Russia Morocco

Serbia Nigeria

Spain South Africa

Sweden

Switzerland

Countries covered

Planned expansionQ4 20201 Not covered

MARKETSIZING

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Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 20206

Detailed status quo analysis in selected countries

The Statista Advertising & Media Outlook data for our 46 economies, such as the United States, China, and Germany, are subject to an in-depth analysis of each of the markets. To evaluate the markets, we use the latest financial data from annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, macroeconomic indicators from international institutions, statistical bureaus, surveys, third-party studies, and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., theStatista Global Consumer Survey), as well as our industry knowledge. Because of the amount of individual information, interpretation, and analysis that flow into the Advertising & Media Outlook, a detailed representation of the data sources for each data point is not possible.

Market sizes are determined with a combined top-down and bottom-up approach based on an individual logic for each market segment. We analyze companies’ financial reports and check various macroeconomic developments that influence and drive the different market segments. Also, demand-side factors, such as the number of users, are linked to performance factors like user penetration or average customer turnover. This data is calculated from market-specific input, such as ad spending/revenue, product prices, purchase/usage frequency, and customer churn rates.

Next to this possibility, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific industry associations. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Market sizing (1/4)

Underlying data

Key player analysis & monitoring

▪ Company profiles and key performance indicators

▪ Quarterly earning calls and further investor information

▪ Product and price monitoring

Market research

▪ Consumer profiling – the Statista Global Consumer Survey

▪ Exclusive representative ad hoc surveys in selected countries on specific current topics

Studies & third-party data

▪ Reports and data from industry associations

▪ Market analysis and analyst opinions

▪ Academic studies

Macroeconomic indicators

▪ Country-specific statistical offices and census data

▪ International organizations and associations

We use a combined top-down and bottom-up approach for our status-quo market sizing

Sources and benchmark:

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Market sizing (2/4)

Social Media Advertising as an example of the top-down approach

Global Social Media Advertising market size

Social Media Advertising

U.S.

China

Germany

…

…

…

2nd leading company

Market-leading company

+

+

Revenue distribution on country level

Global market sizing

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

Financial statements like annual reports, quarterly earning calls, further investor information, as well as expert opinions

Validation based on third-party studies

Allocation carried out based on country level (regional level) data from financial statements as well as driver-based calculation (e.g., web traffic, app downloads, digital ad spending per country)

Validation based on third-party studies

Sources and benchmark:

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Market sizing (3/4)

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

Digital Music as an example of the bottom-up approach

Third-party studies, analyst expertise, industry research, financial statements like annual reports, quarterly earning calls, further investor information

Statista Global Consumer Survey

National statistics

Validation through third-party studies

Digital Music

UsersShare of Music

Streaming usersShare of Music

Downloads users

Averagespendingper user Average subscription

time p.a.

Average price per month

x

Average download frequency p.a.

Average price per download file

x

x x

Internet users

Population

Internet penetration

x

x x

Total revenueMusic Streaming

revenueMusic Downloads

revenue+

Digital Audio Advertising revenue+

Ad spending

Music Streaming

Podcast

+

Sources and benchmark:

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Market sizing (4/4)

TV Advertising as an example of the multiple-regression approach based on various local sources

Traditional TV Advertising

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

Benchmark through third-party studies, analyst expertise, industry research

Example Germany:

ZAW, ARD-Werbung SALES & SERVICES, ZDF Werbefernsehen, VAUNET, Financial reports RTL Group, ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE, and more

Source collection Industry associations, company data, third-party sources

Infrastructural

indicators

Driver compilationGDP, consumer spending, TV households, and total TV revenue (cable TV, IPTV, satellite

TV, and DTT revenues)

National statistics, third-party studies, industry research

Data processing/

validationMultiple regression analysis + benchmarking

FORECASTS

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Once the status quo has been established, we assess the recent market growth and the macroeconomic environment of the country in question and its region. Then we move on to trend scouting, looking out for business-critical developments in the industries that provide the basis for the future growth of the markets.

A market growth forecast is generated with the help of our tool, which combines historical market data with predictions regarding the development of key market drivers by creating the most suitable curve for the market. The S-curve constitutes a special case of the logistic function and is well suited to make forecasts regarding digital products and services due to the non-linear growth of technology adoption.

For markets with a projected steady growth, such as TV or Radio Advertising, we use exponential trend smoothing to illustrate the continuous market development. Parameters are adjusted individually, depending on the market-country combination.

The result is an algorithm-backed forecast, based on relevant market drivers (e.g., internet penetration, consumption spending, infrastructure development, share of urban population, etc.) and the technology adoption lifecycle in the given market. We validate our data through collaboration with other Statista teams, third-party forecasts, regional comparisons, and the analysis of development cycles in different markets.

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Forecasting (1/3)

Our market growth forecasting is based on two different techniques

To create forecasts for up to 5 years, we combine economic developments and trend scouting with statistical and mathematical forecasting techniques. Every market is modeled differently as it is tailored to the respective industry, and this also effects the forecasting method for each market.

In the Advertising & Media Outlook, we use two different forecasting techniques: the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing.

Certain advertising methods or consumer products and services, such as streaming services, are not adopted by all companies and, respectively, consumers at the same time, but in a time sequence. The market maturity can be evaluated according to the Bass diffusion model, which describes how new products and services penetrate the market. Countries can be classified into different clusters based on how long it takes until they adopt the new product. This, in turn, depends on a country's macroeconomic factors, its technologization, culture, and attitudes. This lifecycle of technology penetration can be represented as a graph:

Innovators LaggardsLatemajority

Earlymajority

Earlyadopters

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

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Parameters that determine the projected market development

▪ A: Base level – starting point of market development / known threshold

▪ G: Jumping height – remaining potential until maximum market

penetration

Forecasting (2/3)

▪ T: Symmetry – progression of market diffusion

▪ k: Steepness – development speed / intensity of growth

▪ M: Inflection point – point of transition to starting market saturation

1: Depending on the market for which the forecast is made, a market maturity metric might be user penetration, revenue, saturation, etc.Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

Parametric forecasts: the S-curve function

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

A: Base level

G: Jumping height

T: Symmetry

M: Inflection point

k: Steepness

y = A +G

1 + T ∙ e−k∙ x−M 1/T

Time in years

Ma

rke

t m

atu

rity

me

tric

1

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Parameters that determine the projected market development

▪ h: Forecast horizon – number of years to be forecast

▪ α: Level reactivity – reactivity of the model towards changes in the level

▪ β: Trend reactivity – reactivity of the model towards changes in the trend

Forecasting (3/3)

Parametric forecasts: exponential trend smoothing

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

𝑦 ̂ (α = 0.3, β = 0.3) 𝑦 ̂ (α = 0.9, β = 0.3) 𝑦 ̂ (α = 0.9, β = 0.9) 𝑦 ̂ (α = 0.3, β = 0.9) y (target)

𝑦, 𝑦 ̂

ො𝑦𝑡+ℎ = ℎ ො𝑎1,𝑡 + ො𝑎0,𝑡

ො𝑎0,𝑡 = 𝛼𝑦𝑡 + 1 − 𝛼 ො𝑦𝑡 = 𝛼𝑦𝑡 + 1 − 𝛼 ො𝑎0,𝑡 + ො𝑎1,1

ො𝑎1,𝑡 = 𝛽 ො𝑎0,𝑡 − ො𝑎0,𝑡−1 + 1 − 𝛽 ො𝑎1,𝑡−1

Time in years

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

COVID-19IMPACT

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We currently expect a V-shaped recovery – pre-crisis estimates will be reached again in 2023

151: Gross domestic product in constant 2017 prices, converted from local currencies using the annual average exchange rates of 2017Source: Chart data based on IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2020, own calculations and estimates

We believe that a swift V-shaped recovery can happen under specific circumstances

▪ Initial restrictions reduce infection rates to manageable levels

▪ Increased knowledge about the virus and its spread allow more targeted measures and a modicum of normalcy

▪ Psychological shock effects subside, and consumer confidence returns

▪ Vaccines and/or medications are widely available within 12–18 months

▪ No additional financial crises are triggered

▪ Governments cooperate and assist businesses/consumers

We do not anticipate a reversal of long-term trends but a dissipation of the pandemic-induced shock

We will likely see an intensification of existing long-term trends (e.g., digitization)

COVID-19 impact (1/4)

Global real GDP1 forecast in trillion US$

70

75

80

85

90

95

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Original forecast Adjusted forecast

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Country-specific differences are still small

▪ Most countries are affected and implemented restrictions

▪ Through the connection of the globalized markets with each other, even countries with limited restrictions are hit

▪ Country-specific impact is not clearly seen yet

COVID-19 impact (2/4)

Industries are very differently impacted

▪ From major losses to revenue boosts, a range of potential outcomes exist

▪ Some effects (e.g., tissue & toilet paper hoarding in March) are one-time only and will not dramatically change yearly revenue in 2020

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook (May 2020 update)

Currently, the main drivers for adapted revenue forecasts are industries, not countries

C O U N T R Y - S P E C I F I C I M P A C T I N O U R M O D E L S W I L L I N C R E A S E O V E R T I M E

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Economic outlook

▪ Expected impact on general economy (GDP, consumer spending, investment, etc.)

▪ Based on current forecasts of IMF, statistical offices, and our analysts

Pandemic outlook

▪ Lockdown: Phase of general quarantine (4–10 weeks)

▪ Stabilization: Phase of local and individual quarantines, gradual re-opening of economy (12–18 months)

▪ Reconstruction: Phase after vaccines and treatments have become widely available (from mid to late 2021)

COVID-19 impact (3/4)

Directly affected markets

▪ Directly impacted by quarantine measures (e.g., Travel & Tourism)

▪ Recession reaction based on analyst assessments, benchmark forecasts, leading indicators, as well as our own surveys

Indirectly affected markets

▪ Moved by overall economic performance rather than by pandemic-specific events and measures (e.g., most consumer products)

▪ Recession reaction modeled via regression of historical data (e.g., national accounts, household budget surveys, and similar statistics)

▪ Revenues expected to return to long-term trend eventually

▪ Recovery scenario in V-, U-, or L-shape, depending on the market and country

▪ Timespan needed to return to long-term trend: over 2–5 years

▪ Based on analyst assessments and available benchmark forecasts

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook (May 2020 update)

Our COVID-19 forecasts build on extensive research

Market environment Market shock Shock dissipation

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We handle uncertainty by releasing regular updates

▪ Currently, many things are unclear

− Duration/type of restrictions in industries & countries

− Size of government aid programs

− Mid- to long-term changes in consumer behavior

− Timing of medication/vaccine

− Unemployment rate development

− Impact on household budgets

▪ Also, Q1 reports by companies only reveal the impact in March, we do not see detailed April/May reports yet

▪ We will check & potentially adapt our forecasts quarterly

▪ If major events happen or new information is coming to light, we will make ad-hoc changes to the affected markets

COVID-19 impact (4/4)

We note the update status in each chart

Updated revenues with date:

▪ Source: Statista (Forecast adjusted for expected impact of COVID-19), May 2020

Not yet updated revenues:

▪ Source: Statista (COVID-19 impact will be implemented in Q2 2020), April 2020

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook (May 2020 update)

With rapidly changing conditions and many unknowns, our forecasts will change more often

APPENDIX

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This appendix contains answers to frequently

asked questions about the general methodology

of the Advertising & Media Outlook

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How are the markets defined?

All markets are defined at the beginning of each content page. You can read a short introduction about what products, services, or categories are included in our market scope and what is out of scope. Furthermore, we provide a brief explanation and market definition that can be accessed by clicking on the download button at the top of each content page.

What macroeconomic data was used to model the forecast?

You can find the key market indicators used for the forecasting at the bottom of the market and/or segment page.

What currency rates were used to convert the values in local currency into US$?

The Statista Advertising & Media Outlook uses the constant average currency rate for the first year shown in the tool. It can be found on the top right of each segment’s page.

Has the monetary data been adjusted for inflation?

The Statista Advertising & Media Outlook forecasts are in real terms (adjusted for inflation).

Frequently asked questions (1/2)

Does the market data reflect the impact of COVID-19?

The forecasts were updated due to the COVID-19 impact in May and now reflect the impact of the virus.

When will you provide a more detailed analysis of certain categories?

Updates and planned releases can be found in the release calendar.

How often do you update the information?

We update data in our Market Outlooks twice a year. The updates are scattered throughout the year. Thus, one market might be updated in January and July, while others are updated later. If something major happens that influences our estimations or if we find inconsistencies, we will update the information immediately.

Is this data comparable from year to year?

Yes, that is the main feature of our Market Outlooks: comparability across markets, countries, and years. If we change market definitions to adapt to the ever-changing business models, we adapt the whole market estimate and forecasts so that all revenue data corresponds again to the new definition and is comparable from year to year.

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

FAQ: The Statista Advertising & Media Outlook

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The figures now differ significantly from those of the previous year. Why has the data changed?

Approaches, assumptions, input data, and scope are improved from update to update. Therefore, data from previous updates might not necessarily be comparable with current data. In addition to that, our own primary research is expanding, and we are replacing third-party data sources with the data from the Statista Global Consumer Survey, which can lead to a one-time significant change in data.

The data in the download files or in the report differs from the data shown in the tool. Which is correct?

The data in the tool is always updated first. In the reports and in full-page downloads, the new data might be available a little later due to limited IT capacity and time lags.

Can we download the information into Excel/PPT?

The data in our Market Outlooks can be downloaded as an Excel or PDF file. Our reports are available for download as a PDF file only.

Frequently asked questions (2/2)

How can I ascertain how reliable the data is? Do you have an indicator on how precise these forecasts are?

There is little data we can compare our forecasts to as most sources differ in methodology. But we certainly compare our estimates with those from other companies, and, in some cases, trade associations, company reports, and press releases serve as a good indicator.

Can I get the raw data or the original file where you modeled the market?

We do not offer our working files for download.

Source: Statista Advertising & Media Outlook 2020

FAQ: The Statista Advertising & Media Outlook

UNITED STATES +1 212 419 5770

Esther Shaulova support@statista.com

LATIN AMERICA +1 212 419 5773

Andrea Romero andrea.romero@statista.com

EUROPE +44 203 709 9960

Lodovica Biagi eu.support@statista.com

GERMANY +49 40 28 48 41 0

Jens Weitemeyer kundenservice@statista.com

ASIA +91 804 901 6428

Ziyan Zhang asia.support@statista.com

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Get in touch with us – We are happy to help