State of College Admission 2009 Report David A. Hawkins Director of Public Policy and Research NACAC...

State of College Admission2009 Report

David A. Hawkins Director of Public Policy and Research

NACAC

Melissa E. ClinedinstAssistant Director of Research

NACAC

Components of Report• Counseling Trends Survey• Admission Trends Survey• Effects of the Economy Survey• External Data

– US Department of Education IPEDS Data– US Census Bureau– College Board Annual Survey– Other Education Organizations

Chapter 1: The Flow of Students

• Number of HS Grads Peaked at 3.33 Million for 2008–09– Wide Variations By State and Region– Racial/Ethnic Composition Changing

• Total College Enrollment Will Increase At Least Through 2017

• Racial/Ethnic Imbalance in College Enrollment

Projected Percentage Change in Public High School Graduates, by State: 2004–05 to 2017–18

SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2017. (2008). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Figure 23).

Enrollment in Postsecondary Education In Comparison to Share of College-Aged Population

White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific

Islander

American Indian/ Alaska Native

Percent of pop. age 18– 2462.0 15.1 17.3 4.3 1.3

Percent of racial/ethnic group enrolled in postsecondary education

Total64.4 13.1 11.4 6.7 1.0

Control

Public64.0 12.4 12.5 7.0 1.1

Private65.5 15.0 8.2 5.8 0.8

Type

Four-year or higher66.9 12.4 8.7 6.5 0.9

Two-year60.1 14.2 16.1 6.9 1.2

SOURCES: Digest of Education Statistics. (2008). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 227).

Cumulative Percent Change in US Public High School Graduates Relative to 2004–05 by Race/Ethnicity

2004

-05

2006

-07

2008

-09

2010

-11

2012

-13

2014

-15

2016

-17

2018

-19

2020

-21

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

American Indian/Alaska NativeAsian/PacificIslanderBlack HispanicWhite

SOURCE: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (2008). Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992–2022.

Chapter 2. Applications and Selectivity

• Application Volume Continues to Increase

• Share of Enrollment By Selectivity

• Recent Trends in Selectivity and Yield

Percentage of Colleges Reporting Change from the Previous Year in Number of Applications for Fall Admission:

1996 to 2008

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

53

6764

73 7471

74 76

6773 75 78 75

3225

1916 17 19 18 16

2320 18 20 18

158

1411 9 10 8 8 10

7 73

7

Number of applica-tions increased

Number of applica-tions decreased

Number of applica-tions stayed the same

Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008

Percentage of Students Submitting Three or More and Seven or More Applications: 1990 to 2008

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

61 60 62 63 62 61 62 61 63 64 67 67 67 70 68 71 71 7174

9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 16 16 17 18 1922

Submitted three or more applicationsSubmitted seven or more applications

SOURCES: Pryor, J.H., Hurtado, S., Saenz, V.B., Santos, J.L., and Korn, W.S. (2007). The American Freshman: Forty Year Trends, 1966–2006. Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA. Pryor, J.H. et al. (2008). The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 2008. Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA.

Applications and Enrollment By SelectivityAverage

Applications Per Institution

National Share of Applications

National Share of Full Time, First-Year Students

Enrolled

Selectivity

Accept fewer than 50% of applicants

6,123 31.1 18.3

50 to 70%3,804 39.3 38.9

71 to 85%2,788 24.4 33.0

More than 85%1,267 5.2 9.7

SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2006-07 and 2007-08). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Selectivity

0.713 0.69600000000000

1

0.69700000000000

1

0.68800000000000

1

0.68200000000000

1

0.67200000000000

1

0.66800000000000

1

Yield

0.491 0.485 0.472 0.466 0.453 0.448 0.452

32.5%

42.5%

52.5%

62.5%

72.5%

Selectivity and Yield Rates at Four-Year Postsecondary Institutions, 2001 – 2007

SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2001–02 through 2007–08). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Trends in Admission Data, 2002 - 2006

Percent Change 2002 - 2006

Number of Applications 24.2

Number of Acceptances 20.4

Number of Enrolled Students 9.8

Average Acceptance Rate -3.9%

Average Yield Rate -8.9%

SOURCE: Chart compiled by the National Association for College Admission Counseling as a supplement to the 2009 State of College Admission Report using data from the US Department of Education's Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center.

Chapter 3. Admission Strategies

• Early Decision Application Volume Tapers Off– Only 49 Percent of Institutions Reported Increases

• Early Action Application Growth Stalls, But Still High– 65 Percent of Colleges Report Increases

• Wait List Admission Changes Slim– 30 Percent, 13 Percent at Most Selective Colleges

Early Decision Early Action Wait List

Total 17.2% 20.1% 35.0Control

Public 3.2 16.1 33.7Private 22.5 21.7 35.6

Selectivity

Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 50.9 29.1 78.250 to 70% 12.6 25.0 33.071 to 85% 11.4 17.4 28.7More than 85% 6.9 10.5 10.5

Yield

Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students 24.5 41.3 56.430 to 45% 20.8 15.6 34.946 to 60% 3.2 12.7 17.5More than 60% 14.0 6.8 18.2

Percentage of Colleges Using Early Decision, Early Action, and Wait Lists:Fall 2008

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008

Mean

Mean percentage of all applications received at ED colleges through Early Decision 6.4%

Mean percentage of Early Decision applications accepted (ED selectivity rate) 67.4

Mean overall selectivity rate for institutions with Early Decision 53.9

Mean percentage of admitted ED students who enrolled (ED yield rate) 87.9

Mean overall yield rate at ED colleges 34.3

Key Statistics for Early Decision Colleges: Fall 2008

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends, 2008.


Mean

Mean percentage of all applications received at EA colleges through Early Action 33.8%

Mean percentage of Early Action applications accepted (EA selectivity rate) 68.9

Mean overall selectivity rate for institutionswith Early Action 63.2

Mean percentage of admitted EA students who enrolled (EA yield rate) 34.2

Mean overall yield rate at EA colleges 32.0

Key Statistics for Early Action Colleges: Fall 2008

Mean Percentage of Students Admitted off the Wait List: Fall 2008Mean Percent Admitted

Total 30.3

Control

Public 33.7

Private 29.1

Selectivity

Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 13.2

50 to 70% 33.4

71 to 85% 49.1

More than 85% 50.2

Yield

Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students 35.5

30 to 45% 19.6

46 to 60% 48.5

More than 60% 39.7

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008.

Chapter 4. Factors in the Admission Decision

• Top Factors Unchanged– Grades in College Prep Courses– Strength of Curriculum– Test Scores– Overall GPA

• New Questions– Essay Verification– Review Social Networking Profiles

FactorConsiderable importance

Moderate importance

Limited importance No importance

Grades in college prep courses 74.9% 15.7% 5.0% 4.4%

Strength of curriculum 61.5 24.9 8.6 5.0

Admission test scores (SAT, ACT) 54.3 30.6 10.7 4.5

Grades in all courses 52.1 34.4 9.6 3.9

Essay or writing sample 26.6 29.9 22.7 20.9

Teacher recommendation 21.1 38.3 29.7 11.0

Student’s demonstrated interest 20.9 28.7 27.2 23.3

Counselor recommendation 20.4 41.9 26.5 11.2

Class rank 19.2 33.1 32.2 15.4

Interview 11.0 22.4 30.4 36.1

Subject test scores (AP, IB) 7.8 27.0 32.7 32.4

Extracurricular activities 7.4 36.6 37.5 18.5

SAT II scores 6.7 8.2 24.4 60.7

Portfolio 6.7 7.9 34.7 50.8

State graduation exam scores 3.9 14.2 29.3 52.6

Work 1.8 16.9 41.3 40.1

Percentage of Colleges Attributing Different Levels of Importance to Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2008


Factors by Institutional Characteristics• Public vs. Private

– Private: essay, interview, counselor and teacher recommendations, work, extracurricular activities, subject test scores (AP, IB), the portfolio, and demonstrated interest

– Public: class rank• Enrollment Size

– Smaller: interview, essay, counselor and teacher recommendations, demonstrated interest, portfolio, state graduation exams

• Selectivity– More Selective: grades in college prep courses, strength of

curriculum, essay, counselor and teacher recommendations, class rank, extracurricular activities, work, portfolios, subject test scores, and SAT II scores

Considerable importance

Moderate importance

Limited importance No importance

Race/ethnicity 6.7 16.7 16.1 60.6

First-generation status 6.1 18.5 23.0 52.4

Gender 3.6 8.2 16.1 72.1

Alumni relations 3.6 14.8 32.8 48.8

High school attended 3.3 18.0 26.7 52.0

State or county of residence 1.2 12.3 23.2 63.3

Ability to pay 2.7 6.0 14.7 76.6

Percentage of Colleges Attributing Importance to the Influence of Student Characteristics on the Evaluation of Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2008


21% of Colleges Revoked Admission Offers in 2008

Falsification ofapplication information

Disciplinary issue

Final grades

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

29.0

35.0

65.0

Percentage of Colleges that Revoked Admission Offers for Various Reasons (Among Those That Revoked Any Offers)

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2007.SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008

• Only 5 percent of colleges reported that they take steps to verify applicant essays

• About 8 percent of colleges reported that they review the social networking profiles of prospective students in some cases

Essay Verification and Review of Social Networking Profiles

Chapter 5. College Counseling In High Schools

• Student-to-Counselor Ratios

• Time Spent on College Counseling

Student-to-Counselor Ratios by School Characteristics

Students Per Counselor Students Per College Counselor

Total 246 316

Control

Public 265 331

Private 167 250

Private non-parochial 161 239

Private parochial 177 270

Enrollment

Fewer than 500 190 219

500 to 999 257 315

1,000 to 1,499 269 354

1,500 to 1,999 290 365

2,000 or more 380 608

FRPL

0 to 25% 273 338

26 to 50% 253 309

51 to 75% 265 352

76 to 100% 235 351

SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2008

Percentage of Time on College Counseling

Private Schools

54.4

12.3

11.2

9.4

2.4 64.3

Public Schools

22.8

24.8

20.2

14.8

7.9

4.5 5College counsel-ingHigh School coursesPersonal needsTestingJob counselingTeachingOther

SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2008

Chapter 6. The Admission Office

• Application-to-Admission Officer Ratios

• Cost to Recruit

Application-to-Admission Officer Ratios

Applications per admission officer

Total 459Control

Public 825Private 333

Enrollment

Fewer than 3,000 2483,000 to 9,999 75610,000 or more 1091

Selectivity

Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 71250 to 70% 49671 to 85% 380More than 85% 316

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008.

Cost-to-Recruit

Applicant Admitted Enrolled

Total $506.47 $865.13 $2,382.97

Control

Public 298.65 457.22 973.96

Private 590.26 1,021.90 2,954.13

Enrollment

Fewer than 3,000 691.48 1,139.14 3,173.72

3,000 to 9,999 325.43 648.16 1,864.03

10,000 or more 275.96 381.91 854.20

Selectivity

Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 400.10 1,115.89 3,105.24

50 to 70% 498.42 831.89 2,257.99

71 to 85% 505.16 717.37 2,150.70

More than 85% 728.10 1,009.58 2,284.48

Yield

Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students493.68 712.05 2,916.52

30 to 45% 479.20 855.88 2,347.48

46 to 60% 479.77 770.63 1,593.97

More than 60% 762.98 1,759.96 2,921.15

NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell).SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008.

Chapter 7. Effects of the Economy on the 2008-09 Admission Cycle

•Changes in Students’ Enrollment Plans

•Increasing Student-to-Counselor Ratios

•Increased Demand for Financial Aid

•Strategies Used by Colleges to Meet Enrollment Goals

Apps. Per Student CC vs. 4-Year Public vs. Private Delay College Forgo Dream School

Inc. Same Dec. Inc. Same Dec. Inc. Same Dec. Inc. Same Dec. Inc. Same Dec.

Total 39.2% 46.3% 14.5% 36.9% 59.1% 4.0% 59.6% 35.4% 5.0% 14.5% 83.8% 1.7% 70.7%

27.5%

1.7%

Control

Public 37.6 45.9 16.5 62.9 34.2 2.9 65.4 28.2 6.4 25.4 72.9 1.7 75.7 21.3 3.0

Private 40.1 46.6 13.3 21.3 73.9 4.7 56.3 39.5 4.2 8.1 90.1 1.7 67.8 31.2 1.0

Percentage of Schools Reporting Change in Students’ Behavior During the Admission Process for Fall 2008-09,

as compared to Fall 2007-08

SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part I, May 2009

Public

Private

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

45%

17%

50%

76%

6%

8%

DecreaseSameIncrease

Public

Private

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

44

8

Series 1

Students Per Counselor

Percent Reporting Change Average Change

Student Counselor Ratios

SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part II, August/September 2009.

Average Loan Amount

# of Students Offered Self-Help Aid

Total Institutional Grant Aid Awarded

# of Students Offered Institutional Grant Aid

Financial Aid Applications

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

62%

68%

76%

74%

89%

36%

31%

19%

22%

9%

2%

2%

6%

4%

1%

DecreaseSameIncrease

Percentage of Admission Offices Reporting Change

Admission Statistics–Financial Aid


Transfer

Freshmen

Total

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

54%

48%

58%

25%

17%

21%

21%

35%

21%

Decrease Same Increase

Transfer

Freshmen

Total

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

72%

58%

71%

45%

44%

52%

Private Public

Percent Reporting Change Percent Reporting Increases by Type

Admission Statistics–Enrollment


Initiated a Wait List for First Time

Increased Deferred Admission Offers

Accepted More Students From Wait List

Extended Usual Application Deadline

Compiled a Longer Waitlist

Greater # of ED/EA Applicants Accepted

Offered More Students Grant Aid

Larger Grant Aid Packages

Greater # of Applicants Accepted

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

7%

10%

21%

22%

22%

26%

52%

53%

67%

Admission Office Strategies To Meet Enrollment Goals


We Welcome Your Input

Melissa Clinedinst [email protected]

David [email protected]

State of College Admission 2009 Report David A. Hawkins Director of Public Policy and Research NACAC...

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