State and Trends of the Carbon Market
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Transcript of State and Trends of the Carbon Market
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State and Trends of the Carbon MarketLatin American Carbon ForumNovember 4, 2008Santiago, ChileAlexandre KossoyCarbon Finance UnitThe World Bank Group
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Todays discussionThe CF in 2008 onwards (within Kyoto)And beyond: mainstream to the CC AgendaThe Carbon Market 2007
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Carbon markets surpassed US$100 billion by the end of 2007 Allowance MarketsProject-Based TransactionsEU Emission Trading SchemeChicago Climate ExchangeNew South Wales CertificatesCDM7,4007022050,100Voluntary & Retail270Secondary CDM5,500JI500(same volume)
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but the markets are fragmented.EU ETS (domestic)Kyoto signatories outside EU ETSAnnex I countries with economies in transition. Potential JI countriesNon Annex I countries. Potential CDM host countriesRegional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI):States in the Northeastern United States have also passed carbon regulations for stationary sourcesWestern Regional Climate Initiative:California is a leading participant in a regional initiative to reduce its emissions, along with several Canadian Provinces.Kyoto frameworkNon-Kyoto initiativesSource: Element Markets
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Tremendous untapped potential in developing countriesSource: WB State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008Uneven regional focus; China, India and Brazil = 85% of CDM market share;Africa still emerging, some successes in 2007;Smaller projects and aggregation opportunities bypassed;Reductions from reforestation and avoided deforestation largely absent.Many countries with high emissions have relatively low presence in carbon markets.2. Many countries are under-penetrated even relative to their emissions1. Location of CDM projects(percentage of volume, 2007)Source: McKinsey
Working Draft - Last Modified 3/21/2008 11:01:43 AM
Printed 03/21/2008 10:09:22 AM
Today: Many developing countries and sectors have been left outside the carbon markets
Source:UNEP, WRI, team analysis
Many countries are under-penetrated relative to emissions
Smaller emissions reduction opportunities have been under-tapped
Land use has played a minimal role in the CDM pipeline
Three developing countries have captured >75% market share
CDM activity by country, mid-2007
Mt CO2e/year
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Distribution of project sizesPercent of total CER volume in pipeline*, by project size (kT CO2)
Share of total CER production, by countryPercent of total CER volume in pipeline
* (Mt CO2e p.a.)
Share of total CER production, by project typePercent of total CER volume in pipeline
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Many opportunities to scale up and extend reachSource: UNEP Risoe, WB State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008
Programmatic approaches will enable scaling up/extending to interventions in key development sectors (energy, appliances, waste management, transport, and newer technologies). Approaches compatible with financing provided by domestic FIs need special attention.
64% of 2007 contracts for clean energyForestry is barely visible in CDMFor the first time, agreement reached at Bali to move forward on Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD), providing opportunity for countries with tropical forests to join the carbon markets. Required now: build capacity to measure and verify emissions associated with forests and bring these assets to market as soon as international regulatory framework is in place. Building on success to scale upTapping new sectors
Chart1
0.1740.0070699136
Sources of GHG emissions
Share of CDM projects
GHG vs CDM
0.1740.0070699136
0.0280.1437549097
0.2590.6967792616
0.1310.0018329406
0.0790.0047132757
0.1940.1008117308
0.1350.0450379681
Sources of GHG emissions
Type of CDM projects
Volume traded
0.008490.097960.00910.01071
0.3210.3510.0110.027
1.1040.5620.0160.063
2.0610.7910.0410.09
2.61.233960.063960.20952
EU ETS
CDM
JI
Other
G tCO2e transacted
Sheet1
Sources of GHG emissionsShare of CDM projectsEU ETS
Land use, Land-use change and Forestry17.4%0.7%
Waste2.8%14.4%
Energy supply25.9%69.7%40
Transportation13.1%0.2%
Residential and Commercial buildings7.9%0.5%
Industry19.4%10.1%60
Agriculture13.5%4.5%
Total100.0%100.0%
Volumes traded (MtCO2e)EU ETSOtherTotal allowancesPrimary CDMSecondary CDMJIOther compliance, voluntary and retailTotal project-based transactions
20048.497.7916.2897.000.969.102.92109.98
2005321.007.00328.00341.0010.0011.0020.00382.00
20061,104.0030.001,134.00537.0025.0016.0033.00611.00
20072,061.0048.002,109.00551.00240.0041.0042.00874.00
20082,600.00144.002,744.00859.56374.4063.9665.521,363.44
Volumes traded (GtCO2e)EU ETSCDMJIOtherTotal
20040.010.100.010.010.13
20050.320.350.010.030.71
20061.100.560.020.061.75
20072.060.790.040.092.98
2008 (forecast)2.601.230.060.214.11
Physical share of market (2007)EU ETSPrimary CDMJI
%62%22%1%Source: Point Carbon, Carbon 2008.
Volume1.040.660.03
Sheet1
Sources of GHG emissions
Share of CDM projects
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet4
Sheet5
Sheet6
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Todays discussionThe CF in 2008 onwards (within Kyoto)And beyond: mainstream to the CC AgendaThe Carbon Market 2007
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2008: over a US$100 billionSource: Point Carbon, Carbon Market Monitor July, 2008H1 2008: 1.8 GtCO2e traded (US$59 billion)EU ETS = 1.3 billion EUAs (US$47 billion 80%)CDM = 502 MtCO2e (US$ 11.9 billion)I CDM = 213 MtCO2e II CDM = 281 MtCO2e Options = 7 MtCO2eJI = 26 MtCO2e (US$0.4 billion)Forecast: 4.2 GtCO2e (US$110.7 billion)
9M 2008: US$87 billionEU ETS = 2.7 billion EUAs (US$69 billion 79%)Forecast: 3.9 GtCO2e (US$116 billion)Source: New Carbon Finance, October, 2008
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Success masks challengesat validation or req. reg.registeredissuance2,645 projects1,451 MCERs403 projects195 MCERs1,170 projects1,342 MCERs348 days328 days180 days74% to high yield projects (ind. gas)
70% of all projects (half of volumes) have not reached registration
DOE2-yeardelayRE and EE (70%) stuck somewhere in the pipeline Source: World Bank based on Data from UNEP RISOE6%
Chart5
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Methods
The282proposed new (baseline & Monitoring) methodologies sent to the Executive Board(Resubmitted methodologies are only counted once, CCS methodologies not included)Table 3:
The Pipeline was produced by Jrgen Fenhann, UNEP Ris Centre 01-10-08, [email protected], Phone (+45)46775105InitialDaysNumberNumber
Table 1:SubmissionDecisionDays toDecisionDays todecisionRejectionApprovalPer roundCumulative
RoundMeth. No.TypeDescriptionAM/ACMGHG reduction/yrHost countryCredit buyerConsultantTitledate1. Mark1.Mark1. MarkEnd markEnd markEnd markRoundaverageaverageaverageSubmittedAC/ withdrawnPendingAC/ withdrawnPending
11Biomass energyBagasse powerAM1540 ktCO2Braziln.a.ECONERGY BrasilVale Do Rosrio bagasse cogeneration15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354A28/Nov/032271545421914680680
12FugitiveFuel switch from coke to charcoal in steel works (=NM29=NM104=NM278)384 ktCO2BrazilIFC-Netherlands & JapanEcoSecuritiesV&M Do Brazil avoided fuel switch project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/0354261611412110790
13CO2 captureCO2 from NH3 production used in methanol prod.229 ktCO2Trinidad & TobagoGermanyHamburg Inst. of Int. EconomicsM5000 plant in Republic of TrinidAB and Tobago15/Apr/03C8/Jun/03543198668287541011100
14LandfillLandfill gas flaringAM2ca. 800 ktCO2Braziln.a.ICF Consulting UKSalvABor Da Bahia landfill gas project15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354A29/Jul/0310542193473081486019160
15LandfillLandfill gas electricityAM3ca. 300 ktCO2BrazilWB NCDFEcosecuritiesNovaGerar landfill gas to energy project15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354A17/Oct/031855245224415981027170
16HydroHydro Power144 ktCO2GuatamalaPCFHernan GarciaGuatamala El CanABa Hydroelectric project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/035461911853511156032230
17HFCsBurning HFC23 from HCFC22 productionAM11400 ktCO2South KoreaJapanClimate Experts Ltd.HFCs decomposition project in Ulsan15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354A29/Jul/031057194181241927034300
18HydroHydro Power100 ktCO2Costa RicaCERUPTCosta Rica Institute of ElectricityPeas Blancas hydroelectric project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/0354820522735320911043410
19Biomass energyRice husk power plant (el + steam + cement)400 ktCO2Thailandn.a.Mitsubishi SecuritiesA.T. Biopower rice husk power project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/035491811662191798052490
110LandfillLandfill gas electricityAM10400 ktCO2South AfricaPCFPCFDurban, South Africa landfill gas to electricity15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354A17/Oct/03185101512253641367058560
111Biomass energyBagasse Power100 ktCO2Indian.a.SCM Sugars Limited (India)26 MW bagasse/Biomass cogenerationpower project , Koppa15/Apr/03C8/Jun/0354Average time:111802653841028060640
112WindWind farmACM253 ktCO2JamaicaCERUPTEcoSecuritiesWigton wind farm project15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354Con3/Sep/04507Initial5412174326226734063680
114Biomass energyRice husk power plant (Combined with NM9)400 ktCO2Thailandn.a.Mitsubishi SecuritiesA.T. Biopower rice husk power project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/0354Rejection54131623003681156068740
115Biomass energyRice husk power plant (Combined with NM9)400 ktCO2Thailandn.a.Mitsubishi SecuritiesA.T. Biopower rice husk power project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/0354Approval21914235320308231210180841
213Biogas0,65 MW biogas power from palm oil waste water27 ktCO2MalaysiaJapanEX Corporation, JapanFELDA Lepar Hilir palm oil mill, biogas project in Malaysia29/May/03C29/Jul/0361Initial61152232033761578087921
216Fuel switchFuel switch from coal to natural gasAM8/ACM918 ktCO2ChileJapan (J-Power)MGM InternationalGraneros plant fuel switching project29/May/03B29/Jul/0361A17/Oct/03141Rejection6116182119345922589946
317EE industryEfficiency improvement of steam use at refineryAM17100 ktCO2Chinan.a.ArmstrongSteam system efficiency improvement in refineris in Fushun, China16/Jul/03B26/Mar/04254A3/Dec/04506Approval1411717916336710361921007
318EE supply sideNew cogeneration industrial plant using natural gasAM14115 ktCO2ChileJapan (J-Power)MGM InternationalMetrogas package cogeneration project16/Jul/03B26/Mar/04254A3/Sep/044151817418423421101101021117
319Biomass energyRice husk power plant (only electricity, =NM9)AM4400 ktCO2Thailandn.a.Mitsubishi SecuritiesA.T. Biopower rice husk power project16/Jul/03A17/Oct/0393Initial1981918518518584311061148
320HydroHydro Power (=NM125)70 ktCO2ColombiaJapan (J-Power)MGM InternationalLa Vuelta and La Herradura hydroelectric project16/Jul/03B26/Mar/04254C14/May/05668Rejection668201561232231236310912011
321LandfillLandfill gas power for on site usageAM1170 ktCO2BrazilCERUPTONYXCERUPT methodology for landfill gas recovery16/Jul/03A28/Nov/03135Approval287212142223121014511012416
422BiogasBiogas power from swine manureAM690 ktCO2ChileCanadaPoch Ambiental, ChileCH4 capture and combustion from swine manure treatment at Peralillo10/Sep/03B26/Mar/04198A14/Jun/04278221811891631036111313017
423HydroHydro powerAM570 ktCO2MexicoPCFPCFEl Gallo hydroelectric project ( 0
Registration Requested (-withdrawn & rejected)No./month73111221101766581481420275087254172133118114776853353931312211131259431241111111217
Total number of requests for registration:1498Average delay for those with delay >0:5.2Months
Data for graph 1a:QuarterQ1-04Q2-04Q3-04Q4-04Q1-05Q2-05Q3-05Q4-05Q1-06Q2-06Q3-06Q4-06Q1-07Q2-07Q3-07Q4-07Q1-08Q2-08Q3-08Q4-08
Under or finished Validation1445617152524661382711261823212542973824333633384133930
Registration Requested (-withdrawn & rejected)1065414132322601272239313020415216616185192000
Not Yet Submitted/withdrawn/rejected380232226114833521171021312213483442995000
% requesting registrationPercentage67%82%87%92%92%91%92%82%74%71%64%60%56%42%20%5%1%0%0%0%
Table 1:
Review historyJan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08TotalQ1-05Q2-05Q3-05Q4-05Q1-06Q2-06Q3-06Q4-06Q1-07Q2-07Q3-07Q4-07Q1-08Q2-08Q3-08Q4-082004/05200620072008
Withdrawn11111112112512201.6%01010011230362002288
Rejected211211122315223427232232121766.0%000133443013774000114574
Registered after corrections after review312212111151411154772594.7%30200132616107900056399
Registered after review4112511121111181.4%02002520321100002970
Registered after corrections after request for review5138122487592618121484661975115812.5%00013851221263416311001289732
Registered after request for review6123211323254923262111836.6%000015365187920000047360
Registered automatically711458469181658161928479627327427134163374718102820199112416401215121185167.3%613199263621338114756485167140013033930281
Total finished by EB, that have requested registration102000652948919175917193662121052528037264282499629266841442425362672232215110000001265100.0%91621957284184105227123109871171700141445546134
Share of projects with request for review and no review0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%5%0%0%0%0%11%13%17%30%42%29%5%18%38%0%15%18%18%14%35%28%42%33%33%18%18%21%22%19%6%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%6%15%22%16%17%26%36%19%15%1%0%0%1%17%23%9%
Share of projects that had a review0%0%50%0%0%0%33%0%50%11%0%25%0%0%0%2%6%0%11%11%8%10%6%10%1%8%8%2%9%4%31%17%27%27%7%18%22%32%11%7%9%11%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%38%13%10%1%7%11%5%6%17%25%15%16%6%0%0%0%6%7%18%4%
Share of projects that was rejected0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%6%0%6%2%8%10%4%4%0%8%4%0%6%4%23%14%8%10%5%6%7%7%8%7%1%6%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%4%4%2%4%13%10%6%7%2%0%0%0%1%3%10%1%
Percentage of all projects that were registered automatically100%0%50%100%100%100%67%100%0%89%100%75%100%95%94%98%94%100%78%76%75%60%52%62%93%71%50%98%77%74%48%62%38%39%47%39%33%39%63%57%46%33%19%20%6%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%75%81%90%97%88%74%72%76%64%44%40%54%33%14%0%0%93%76%53%24%
No final EB decision yet after review request81123253322151355346415100000001331078344000123127
No request for review9211101932428000000000000024038000080
Total requesting registration1020006529489191759171936621210525280382642825098292671434927283828873679601724324200014968162195728418410623012611994202101380140446569341
Days from request registration to registration761526914519589627266975168538886807478776968103112831008010789160153132144166157117112118961281306091101
Month of registartionJan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Q1-05Q2-05Q3-05Q4-05Q1-06Q2-06Q3-06Q4-06Q1-07Q2-07Q3-07Q4-07Q1-08Q2-08Q3-08Q4-082004/05200620072008Total
Number of registered projects each month112123247106241625452229263024565039472023666940353916332434291954363246362221446134086771101361091448887109114470634094282701170
Accumulated number of registered projects112245710121623333963791041491712002262562803363864254724925155816506907257647808138378719009199731009104110871123114511661170117011701170
Expected 2012 MCERs from new registered projects each month0000000000300039001071045979628114725802481247626233310627666253323361964179543410241011101000422181431481131281251061679110096442302045134631621342
Accumulated 2012 MCERs from registered projects33334242424444516166125204210237352359384464488568592668694717750760822898964989102210451080109911631180118812421276128613101320133113411342134213421342
Table 2:
CountryNo. projectsDec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08TotalQ1-04Q2-04Q3-04Q4-04Q1-05Q2-05Q3-05Q4-05Q1-06Q2-06Q3-06Q4-06Q1-07Q2-07Q3-07Q4-07Q1-08Q2-08Q3-08Q4-0820042005200620072008Total
Latin America00000000000300053435312123667166172120231626815161323262038381920108101712201417921181512141117161462031120007683121115152958653962964935464745423663041167246173141768
Argentina000000000000000000010000000001011210000100101100002023001011111030120000300010012301212512333016410930
Bolivia000000000000000000001000000010001001000000001000000000000000000000110000700100111001000000020131027
Brazil000000000001000220002101036071111014673182710581210655375675445396744896325168000310142119193028192521151813171721112901886806561310
Chile000000000001000000040000002000023410101030013011001123312212102310120000561040205523421665343051211181056
Colombia0000000000000000000000000000010002300100001000201202002131100032100310003300000105101232623340064131033
Costa Rica000000000000000000000001000000000010010000000020000010000000000000101000800010001100201000020113128
Cuba000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001000000000000100000000000000200000000001000010000001102
Dominican Republic000000000000000000000000000000000000100000100000100000000000000001000000400000000101010000100002114
Ecuador00000000000000000000002000000000041110100100001001013000110000000011000021000200062101141100202647221
El Salvador000000000000000000000000000000102001010000000000000000001000000200000000800000031100000100200041128
Guatemala00000000000100000000000100100000201000000301001000010000000120101001000018100110210311010131102452518
Guyana000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000100000000000000000000000000100000000000100000000001001
Honduras00000000000000000430000000002000101100001000001000000020200210000031000025043002120101004210407526525
Jamaica000000000000000000000000000010000000000000000000000000000000100000000000200000100000000001000010012
Mexico0000000000000003100000000000016334122537101063026982004284520242300221311000188040001127102762194147835504201183313188
Nicaragua000000000000000000000000001000001010000000000000000000000000010001010000600001011000000001110030036
Panama00000000000000000000000000001200001000100000020000000000010000003120000014000003011002000104200431614
Paraguay000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001100010000010000400000000000000111010000224
Peru000000000000000000000000002000010002000010101110112000021310101100011000260000201201224034212005511526
Uruguay000000000000000000000000000000000010100000000000001000000000000000200000500000001100010000020011125
Asia & Pacific000000000002100202013061322492182335597051261829332947409268435582627399991071101519013211710377879488119125115908813500030283447734661807310920018023431637329726935931301828756212209413028
Bangladesh000000000000000000000000001000000101000000000000000000000100000000000000400001002000000010000030104
Bhutan000000000000000001000000000000000000000000000000000000000101000000000000301000000000000020000100203
Cambodia000000000000000000000000000001000000000000000000000100010000000000100000400000100000001100010010214
China000000000000000000000020000102251221065814711215118152640343463676064111458048494350534870675438487000014450002038141932908113119123614015119115602252226984981445
Fiji000000000000000000000000000010000000000000000000000000000000000000000000100000100000000000000010001
India000000000001100101011041111086417274065281412171615331532422223301722261932343232223322182826253344353627360001079222531448133436489756585867379112990111982713092901079
Indonesia0000000000000000000010000000001000302000111101111331533213412413247232000830010001322237918781370149412883
Lao PDR000000000000000000000000000000000000000010000000000000000000000000000000100000000010000000000001001
Malaysia00000000000000010000100000000011010210313001100686144427616932104621033600013901100023442615121528161812025167046139
Mongolia000000000000000000000000000000000000100000002000000000010000000000000000400000000102000100000003104
Nepal000000000000000000000000000000002000000000000001000000000000000000000000300000020000100000000021003
Pakistan00000000000000000000000000000000000000010000001000010000010111201000000010000000000101010241000023510
Papua New Guinea000000000000000000000000010000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000100001000000000000000010001
Philippines000000000000000000000000100007001110010001004112100240002531740021200000007300001711111542472423000201137573
Singapore000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000100001200000000400000000000000011200000134
South Korea00000000000100000000000000000200210200111221120201312030124111112150000051100002231444434734501713181251
Sri Lanka00000000000000000000000000030000000101000002022010001000000000012100000017000003011024110004000472417
Thailand0000000000000000000000001000010023050000000010001711350044030111135113000680000112800109947251900121292668
Vietnam0000000000000000000000000000020000021000001020010000000013111112040680003800000202103100153614004562338
Europe and Central Asia0000000000000000000000001000000031000220000112101011012012510420121100004000001031402322386320059151140
Armenia000000000000000000000000100000000100000000010200001000100000000000000000700001001001210100000023207
Azerbaijan000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000101010000000000300000000000000021000000213
Cyprus000000000000000000000000000000000000020000000000000001000000030001000000700000000200001003100002147
Georgia000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000010000000001000002010100000600000000000100102110001146
Kyrgyzstan000000000000000000000000000000000000001000000000000000000000000000000000100000000100000000000001001
Macedonia000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001010000200000000000000000110000022
Malta000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000100000000000000000100000000000000100000000101
Moldova000000000000000000000000000000003000000000001000100000000000000000000000500000030001010000000031105
Tajikistan000000000000000000000000000000000000001000000000000000000000000000000000100000000100000000000001001
Uzbekistan000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000100000150000000000000700000000000001060000000707
Africa0000000000000000000000110000110232040232112110510122114201313261311260007700020256544634651159021319182577
Congo DR000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000101000000000200000000000000002000000022
Egypt00000000000000000000000000000000000000110101100000020000000001000100200011000000001220020011200052411
Equatorial Guinea000000000000000000000000000
Ivory Coast000000000000000000000000000000000001000000000000000000000000010000000000200000001000000001000010012
Kenya000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000010000000200001102000000000700000000000100213000001337
Madagascar000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000010000000100000000000000000100000011
Mali000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000100001000000000200000000000000011000000112
Mauritius000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001000000000000000000100000000000001000000000101
Morocco000000000000000000000010000001001001000000000001000000000000002100010000900010111000100002110131049
Mozambique000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000010000000000000100000000000000010000000101
Nigeria000000000000000000000000000000000101000000000000000000000000000000100000300000002000000000010020013
Senegal000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001000000000000000001000200000000000010000010000112
South Africa00000000000000000000000100001002200101011020004000101021002000002000100026000101411224113202101697326
Tanzania000000000000000000000000000000000000010000000000000000010000000000010000300000000100000100010001113
Tunisia000000000000000000000000000000000000002000000000000000000000000000000000200000000200000000000002002
Uganda000000000000000000000000000000000100000000000000010000000000100000001000400000001000010001010010124
Zambia000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001000100000000000000000010000011
Middle-East000000000000000000000000000001000000100101011120202400012305343244402000540000010012234438101060018192654
Iran000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001000100000000000000000010000011
Israel000000000000000000000000000001000000100101001120202400012205301100200000330000010012134437412001718733
Jordan000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000100001100100000400000000000000011110000134
Qatar000000000000000000000000000000000000000000010000000000000000000000000000100000000001000000000001001
Syria000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000011000000200000000000000000200000022
United Arab Emirates000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000041033101000130000000000000000562000001313
Total5100736366191478811262925466185868135375049537562133109658393738412111812812617410215614112696107115116138147128116122155000396761615242366132252122177304241278372432363338413393061473844144511443967
Mexico0%0%0%0%43%33%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%24%7%5%5%1%2%6%14%6%14%19%13%10%23%24%14%10%2%0%0%3%2%6%3%3%2%0%1%3%2%3%0%0%1%1%1%3%1%1%0%0%0%5%0%25%0%0%0%2%9%3%8%15%20%8%1%4%2%2%1%1%1%0%
Brazil20%0%0%0%29%67%0%0%0%33%100%0%71%43%75%0%64%42%3%40%30%10%8%3%22%6%19%20%10%15%16%16%5%5%8%4%8%7%7%6%4%3%3%3%3%6%4%6%4%4%7%8%4%2%2%4%13%5%0%0%0%8%17%25%13%46%39%29%23%11%16%14%7%6%6%3%4%5%6%3%7%0%
China0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%22%0%0%0%0%9%0%7%8%11%2%2%2%12%17%14%16%29%13%15%34%38%17%23%31%43%47%40%52%57%47%51%64%44%51%34%39%45%47%46%41%51%46%42%33%39%45%0%0%0%36%0%0%0%8%0%5%6%6%16%18%30%34%47%51%55%39%45%46%40%0%
India20%100%0%0%14%0%17%0%17%17%0%44%7%14%13%13%0%31%21%16%37%44%47%76%35%40%32%34%33%28%44%24%24%39%34%28%32%23%26%21%16%25%27%18%31%14%23%17%19%26%23%22%24%30%27%31%22%23%0%0%0%27%33%13%13%21%13%21%36%53%35%36%29%31%23%23%20%20%23%27%25%0%
Brazil + Mexico + India + China fraction:%40%100%0%0%86%100%17%0%17%50%100%67%79%57%88%13%73%73%34%88%85%61%62%83%72%69%78%76%86%75%88%84%89%83%78%72%85%77%74%83%79%81%84%88%80%71%63%65%70%79%76%71%80%79%72%71%75%74%0%0%0%76%50%63%27%75%52%56%74%72%75%84%86%79%78%81%80%66%75%77%74%0%
Table 3:
Country2012 kCERsDec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08TotalQ1-04Q2-04Q3-04Q4-04Q1-05Q2-05Q3-05Q4-05Q1-06Q2-06Q3-06Q4-06Q1-07Q2-07Q3-07Q4-07Q1-08Q2-08Q3-08Q4-0820042005200620072008
Latin America0000000000069310003692685317884393672540701138810787971955044337194493542663619811309714280130395939148306010555961221160099403729679649417218925298738795419621824080731747798638924522337437645612120373381091699840932015942694210177977261770004226436931107231275012876195591396189358338071769125269189552792010458207341891422308182171608526126043281156686898347241560428
Argentina000000000000000000053000000000003020198060557935300008361001960155324700008620435134400730482661080786660600023733530000350330053000030225845845083613513247862178073314182460035900530087311195930296014
Bolivia000000000000000000006960000000209000134600320000000012000000000000000000000002332300003740006960020913463200120000000002560696158712000256
Brazil00000000000666700030236454000184470108802971955040194482141944258357791626212013471142938212035415133925412136162926147331023120522899711302111118816522273363712151919347152109661280140930091696351637746802673499300018869566679477184495021522310351499881489570006016497645163383480667719647569755881234602749190457225092460623631
Chile0000000000015100000004067000000122400001758605829308400327501804365002953009943860015338214123846910333283242233461881022738833080845000040436151040670122407816377032924365559448515356401525936110842192504218128101270182542454
Colombia000000000000000000000000000001510003141000001200000017260005524017416330154000132450120012207750002782288168002928100022261000001510131412000172655242373154038269962782456373001465845087363611
Costa Rica00000000000000000000000144900000000006300239000000003200000017700000000000003640185000279600014490006323900320017700005490144963559177549
Cuba00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000196800000000000027500000000000000224300000000001968000027500000019682750
Dominican Republic000000000000000000000000000000000000299000001210000012860000000000000000553000000225900000000299012101286000055300004201286553
Ecuador0000000000000000000000138800000000003043284854030277003850000130014905322490006235400000000809957000066970001388000111767938501314978262354001766013881117107813481766
El Salvador000000000000000000000000000000123101574008830224000000000000000000350000001690000000041160000002805883224000003500169000368722435169
Guatemala0000000000011400000000000537008130000039501089000000606059500101200001430000000428247022406890016400007055114005378130395108906065951012014304284716891640651229622135711324
Guyana0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000002080000000000000000000000000020800000000000208000000000020800
Honduras00000000000000000178843000000000289000159071190000014100000179000000021005280035022700000175930000363501788430028915926101410179007383502270269010217103201088495
Jamaica00000000000000000000000000004560000000000000000000000000000000106100000000000151700000456000000000010610000456001061
Mexico0000000000000006684000000000000001729181681517137715784414566602692301190117246022969170322791623713212000155928381855117531641470729511912621829005607115406721126122200074177010680001729210622475365342266951445615595867331171091829667722040106825266192871784710710
Nicaragua000000000000000000000000001965000001140039200000000000000000000000000180000547018000042420000196501140392000000001805471800349700745
Panama00000000000000000000000000001862870000218000111000000306000000000000731000000225602503000007383000004730218111003060000731028525030069231717312789
Paraguay0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000050920003300000740000250000000000000005092330740000143107
Peru000000000000000000000000003350000206300013550000116901540353918080198992120000372485341735015050150010000019696000142540000335020631355011695068985090252210753006100715003753257441063821
Uruguay00000000000000000000000000000000009809920000000000000184000000000000000372000001647000000098992000184000003720098992184372
Asia & Pacific0000000000038599345001028010302337720166419682419318401533272210159557949732252761169313085614154312553850369296411921575528800494009197754221548021006771122096213358958567085425773529641948677439989627434856742232635913611934012418585069464144350893006830089586780002216329389451131100518603595105850408022893319035285747195598267688177799191980189506154390111989149926118835042941439578639385713675380750
Bangladesh00000000000000000000000000566000000550053000000000000000000000294000000000000001464000056600604000000029400000117002940
Bhutan00000000000000000400000000000000000000000000000000000000050201557600000000000016082040000000000000160780000400160780
Cambodia000000000000000000000000000002930000000000000000000002170003200000000006800000608000002930000000217320006800293024868
China000000000000000000000010160000659021184229331165990344186912613443793603540113099568337240305057762034354442889220484846549333912645209379015786441302745412493147514311503580035229237982613432034373203847526601142802291642973000149124800010160277781992183476199345067142479221337139268137068146987102179819651023978016901016229323470877525501264531
Fiji0000000000000000000000000000164000000000000000000000000000000000000000000016400000164000000000000000164000
India0000000000024599345005520990233317064919620595274025573347111635951188502402423437117215833482739575170459986681811911257177337177650924084457668395583331251019756111066800565274343564749110178424852428358203755091133495408123360004284732494565155084557436029259655918214617184374710937769169981816923558184901966933824310930269901217501179337721484586
Indonesia0000000000000000000031000000000250005550050200025739655911050151112140245156875919223222243663021839833322190105115942022792256139458525663117200039918003100025555050242226961665237275804831456345882235105803155747085193457881
Lao PDR000000000000000000000000000000000000000019000000000000000000000000000000019000000000190000000000001900
Malaysia000000000000000475000042400000000037847002640571524038205334690032960700882218010118317798339739357337431942092383143066315927575831802232913494304477480006648404754240008473215344352293688215475143138865447534995480162608991168106844312810605
Mongolia0000000000000000000000000000000000008300000003020000000000724000000000000000011090000000083030200072400000003857240
Nepal0000000000000000000000000000000069700000000000000162000000000000000000000000859000000697000016200000000069716200
Pakistan00000000000000000000000000000000000000049350000008760000692600000384017041113209043100000001408500000000049350876069260553364431000058117479795
Papua New Guinea00000000000000000000000001836000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000018360000183600000000000000001836000
Philippines0000000000000000000000003280000168004368680020900052700270309888678274002161739000296511134645916930032411624800000001317400003281684368682095275791841216173930762498324364000180031567529689
Singapore000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000660000159130800000000153400000000000000066159130800000661468
South Korea0000000000014000000000000000000005808600149958017700750839528926133222218183903870341132311439201600016066349206257192481360700000100587140000000580861499235750890172374222616641235160826472676607014000598212112538861756
Sri Lanka000000000000000000000000000875000000049072000001740458298018100019800000000002061241210000002756000008750497201747561811980004510009241002379451
Thailand0000000000000000000000002910000496003135822026720000000049500021996644211330791344009657980143201262598828747810791231703000220750000291496313534940049501626453696522301511753290500741549593574808
Vietnam00000000000000000000000000000696400000680230000052040200172000000003091729126281340226232147085905647460001385400000696406802304541720030921377981006131000764464924463114
Europe and Central Asia000000000000000000000000681000000027837700035581800006533963228601493016239011422901171179940723442028970016049219282000019464000068102783771173040391815093531401931335925251740013362495125763057
Armenia00000000000000000000000068100000000377000000000650632000016000129000000000000000001900000068100377006563216012900000010586971450
Azerbaijan0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001700344205800000000003671000000000000000361258000000361258
Cyprus000000000000000000000000000000000000035500000000000000011400000002310007020000001402000000003550000114002317020000355114933
Georgia000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000028600000000011710000070016040920000032220000000000028600117107016049200028611711766
Kyrgyzstan0000000000000000000000000000000000000051300000000000000000000000000000000051300000000513000000000000051300
Macedonia000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000002180820000300000000000000000002188200000300
Malta0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001000000000000000000010000000000000000100000000001000
Moldova00000000000000000000000000000000278000000000003390001493000000000000000000000002110000000278000339014930000000027833914930
Tajikistan0000000000000000000000000000000000000030500000000000000000000000000000000030500000000305000000000000030500
Uzbekistan000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000239000001628407200000000000005940000000000000023905700000000059400
Africa000000000000000000000093648000014022080818841147950169660354564747039272213051843108206108009189030285314311349176419992924024032513424777121080281195716529754321620009656900098401610165931761100201106640128199288245434923700426919408001098435030332971304814210
Congo DR0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000002106054300000000026480000000000000000264800000002648
Egypt00000000000000000000000000000000000000234967060130501082061000000143100000000035800071600101900016053000000002349801121690014310035871610190001252914312093
Equatorial Guinea00000000000000000000000000
Ivory Coast00000000000000000000000000000000000566100000000000000000000000003550000000000601600000005661000000003550000566100355
Kenya00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000005510000000173900001341230241000000000278900000000000551001739134364000005511874364
Madagascar0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000210000000021000000000000000000210000000210
Mali0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000002400000410000000002810000000000000002404100000024041
Mauritius00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000176400000000000000000017640000000000000176400000000017640
Morocco00000000000000000000009360000002080022700592000000000001890000000000000025628000428000028650009360208227592000189000025628428093610271890712
Mozambique0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000228000000000000022800000000000000022800000002280
Nigeria0000000000000000000000000000000001450501052100000000000000000000000000000052970000030322000000025026000000000052970025026005297
Senegal00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000784000000000000000003190001103000000000000784000003190000784319
South Africa000000000000000000000004800001402008186140019202433033327220184300074590002068013490259122800970000098500060000239090004801402143219224333055184374592068134914879709856004830261479050011044
Tanzania00000000000000000000000000000000000001112000000000000000001696000000000001150000292400000000111200000169600011500011121696115
Tunisia00000000000000000000000000000000000000412500000000000000000000000000000000041250000000041250000000000000412500
Uganda00000000000000000000000000000000029000000000000000030000000000024800000001770007440000000290000030000248017700290030425
Zambia0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000058800058800000000000000000058800000588
Middle-East0000000000000000000000000000071900000041800500560137482081579310545070313100022735153611040918551318588612117372021120195800038131000007190041810513956108861531313742402037612505407000719155681150810335
Iran00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000162100016210000000000000000001621000001621
Israel0000000000000000000000000000071900000041800500560020815793105450703131000227351517240409185501931230011870000015519000007190041810520810886153131374221332048123118700719182096213358
Jordan00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000018870000316488008690000035600000000000000001887316488869000018871673
Qatar000000000000000000000000000000000000000000013748000000000000000000000000000013748000000000013748000000000001374800
Syria000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000035524100000059600000000000000000596000000596
United Arab Emirates000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000013187908184795603370003087000000000000000013971297394000003087
Total4553134500472068532818439600331270139881103111224743551773477134781051856777523647406751451423679517333918982179628271059882284173389058039110839640466484311977612119368367611706372766375796567471198246453737486660672587507130948560380315200454535740574438947745404856897600027931364587611854137561572023836122140132097355276119654122188232924305813193264220742218486190730138595172981157206087206633349780579823222468781
Rest of host countriesCumul.2012 MCERs45000000111111114161719242527373845618898121128133141161170177181197205214233239245249254273283294299307323338345371382385396401409414428436443443443443443
MalaysiaCumul.2012 MCERs00000000011111111111222224477111111111212121315252829334343475154555656595961646565666666666666
MexicoCumul.2012 MCERs000011111111111111321222425262627303032343437394143444646464750525356565657626365656566677273747474747474
South KoreaCumul.2012 MCERs1414141414141414141414141414141414147272727474747474748181819090939395959595959798989898989898999999999999100100101101101101101101101
BrazilCumul.2012 MCERs777710161616161819192737434345535396101103105107118118120125126129131133135136137138140141143144146146149152153155159164165166168171172176176181184189189189189189
IndiaCumul.2012 MCERs25252525252526262626262727272728283064657190114137149155159163169173182200211229236243267271278284287292302313320325333336344354358364372392397411416428428428428428
ChinaCumul.2012 MCERs0000000000011111224811121021042302352382923233303373684464805246167017567958408789369781052107711251156119112271251127713091346138414111425144814911491149114911491
Table 4:
TypeNo. projectsDec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08TotalQ1-04Q2-04Q3-04Q4-04Q1-05Q2-05Q3-05Q4-05Q1-06Q2-06Q3-06Q4-06Q1-07Q2-07Q3-07Q4-07Q1-08Q2-08Q3-08Q4-0820042005200620072008
Afforestation00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001101000010100000050000000000000021020000032
Agriculture0000000000000000000300020000169941936143792081299802011842041410250011162000216003207222883638173136671190557992827
Biogas000000000000000000000000000004005555001133136005279444545892111786736942600024300000451517377201317412116390024529176
Biomass energy0000000000000002010120163615113510171718207616814109232018112010151714191912151415881215161814101919290006090337101932552932524942524131434267013116162166152
Cement0000000000000000000000000000000004101110000011401001000101116100001100000380000000152025102811100159113
CO2 capture00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000010000000010000000000000000010000001
Coal bed/mine methane00000000000000000000000000000000000001010036105303345231003110230220300058000000001110861144355000202513
Energy distribution00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000010000020010000000000000040000000000001021000000040
EE households000000000000000000000001000000002000000010000000000001020000100100011000110001002001000120112012134
EE industry00000000000000000000100000000105231143205135441471362933756638541041052100016900100171859131210141515172480126395449
EE own generation000000000000000000000000000000037174140243512313111271610232059213756771114221417176000366000000101259201535537418255040002249180115
EE service00000000000000000000000000000000110000000000000000001000100000111100000080000001100000110130002024
EE supply side00000000000000000000000000000101122011100002300001202221100120213010600042000001243050344144700781215
Fossil fuel switch0000000000000000000100000000012413551111113294245121214476310253673323000132001001713331410841519101680121304634
Fugitive000000000001000000000000000001100101000001011000011011000001012012000100029100001120102022013310141257
Geothermal000000000000000000000000011000001100010002000100000000200100001000010000130000201112010021101004432
HFCs000000000002000000000000000001100203002200110020100000001000000001110000222000011522221010012027823
Hydro0000000000010004153010520034104341078159791011105221715181918294453224552286746412831382745553120433200010371104731817302531445291120147115961319502268152473322
Landfill gas0000000000010001200121134131122353255372753473511379117941111281089107155488900029913358410101514141919272646262425012326211875
N2O0000000000000000000000000000011000000012100013323065841101712221033000006500000110131891729643002133713
PFCs00000000000000000000000000000000000000000010000000000010000000101031000080000000000100010114000116
Reforestation0000000000000000000000000000000000001100000100101101010101001120130400002200000000201122114440004612
Solar000000000000000000000000000000102002000000020000000000001222110121300000230000003200200016243005279
Tidal00000000000000000000000000000000100000000000000000000000000000000000000010000001000000000000001000
Transport00000000000000000000000000000001000000000010000000100000210000001000000070000001000101021010001141
Wind0000000000001000000000200001340621615105598181615146161387911171022231915131021192612262620133600053910020884119174535243864386664690357116164199
Total510073636619147881126292546618586813537504953756213310965839373841211181281261741021561411269610711511613814712811612215500039676161524236613225212217730424127837243236333841339306147384414451144
Renewables110061631308837510241592038464652211935272933319851405054436074826279927110988855972817683100747180123000146633%81%47%67%65%74%51%57%61%50%59%60%64%60%63%64%68%62%70%0%
CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed20001200421154131291212927151379101016351513381618156111417211510121630191612141420718121415000142433%19%40%29%35%18%25%22%21%34%22%20%11%14%9%18%12%11%10%0
Energy Efficiency000000000100100000201013720857176611181027181411251235266612221511101812182731252320140006230%0%7%4%0%3%17%14%11%11%13%11%18%20%23%10%14%20%15%0
Fuel switch00000000100000000012413551111113294245121214476310253673323000420%0%7%0%0%2%5%5%2%2%5%4%3%1%3%5%3%4%2%0
HFC, PFC & N2O reduction200000000000000000220020300341021135240658421117122311472000032033%0%0%0%0%3%2%2%2%3%1%4%4%5%1%2%2%1%2%0
Afforestation & Reforestation0000000000000000000000000110000010010110101021110112114040000270%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0
Total accumulated56661316222531373847616876849512115017522128236745353456960665670575883389510281137120212851378145115351656177419022028220223042460260127272823293030453161329934463574369038123967396739673967
232with issuance.
Table 5
Type2012 kCERs0000000000Dec-99Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Total
Afforestation0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000169693019000052040000001864
Agriculture000000000000000000039530002620000465121806555241486418818621948209916301101716771666577232501605713011703827817144206376010642415351220298104000958233115416100050614
Biogas000000000000000000000000000005620049728709111376002801021075532154244900444417681553163713017400985180563255069914321349417727651085754204836411151516626466900057955
Biomass energy0000000000000001028099023314390295461143018332748236779925159024714974590264776559284794172092780700223732196821545543659348182342627599728246475570567014671344235233122167320432677511466143644563520564518454610569000194405
Cement000000000000000000000000000000000981165026942329570000094810437250653003177000387056182969151601061000055352970000041342
CO2 capture000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000290000000029
Coal bed/mine methane000000000000000000000000000000000000021370124790065792106144080166043112066474842489062862990158536200421815892030064522718026821481010571000125722
Energy distribution000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000655000003120085000000000000001053
EE households00000000000000000000000480000000020600000002570000000000001404120000238002100001205880002092
EE industry0000000000000000000043700000000228052952614110061221935260098819882342923866647317031801285993183193010914191455422918483634915529042752868380960193861600032441
EE own generation000000000000000000000000000000013131030543988994330829319908721634187015769107829273621137793687171334612338393623379147014459398431494985744365073491365244687866116973679941170991960000268004
EE service00000000000000000000000000000000722100000000000000000039000109000004738760000000393
EE supply side000000000000000000000000000006004055397378083531800001403230000013783004331436155227435100134452301724103647601900600000028817
Fossil fuel switch00000000000000000001140000000001942791562360015961804419153255967116993610131552824418019268128934128343357313989212716311938221257199125074499815394846658450539834249553556922947025000207202
Fugitive0000000000015100000000000000000691018000014505010521000004117781374800001459590192235200000248021061047018151690000162100063733
Geothermal0000000000000000000000000183619650000011623060002240004408000888000000009940013000017690000209000013775
HFCs000000000003859900000000000000000325851401000903440123922005125220073001586027607006805901622100000001915000000005406109880000506050
Hydro00000000000114000755400182843031701741733001148129644906922775125957841097357947673428397016643317610319779121038199886314570668935649166531648422801795520125289591442627452237061683827821133891148886621863429853102837087144299121000444439
Landfill gas00000000000666700029376454005300112070160453781079437661790699322585346453644870634380115949594933611044317976667108762854443430614109397354355127938546404355675512629342983670121171626132837461423654237549919371158336930305204000257239
N2O00000000000000000000000000000571903576700000007508116412722000192424076695252468639101007878845867346259574401628828447025581514128811602168442400000257722
PFCs000000000000000000000000000000000000000000196000000000004010000000161601830228610300004785
Reforestation0000000000000000000000000000000000004701740000044600280149330015150680150000160335830314814503474000011782
Solar00000000000000000000000000000025023100570000000798000000000000034422326491720285163148000002816
Tidal0000000000000000000000000000000011040000000000000000000000000000000000000001104
Transport000000000000000000000000000000059000000000017260000000230000001440500000047900000003938
Wind00000000000034500000000013480000659171331350552783194804575267628461743397847499150469891936047193020552540556658173828133846554123638606992071656574478244416543970279684884744376255168325211480000213822
Total455313450047206853281843960033127013988110311122474355177347713478105185677752364740675145142367951733391898217962827105988228417338905803911083964046648431197761211936836761170637276637579656747119824645373748666067258750713094856038031520045453574057443894774540485689760002793136
Renewables114345001782400281843233175503384534443036693387277812982531343899257190581765615542154349121687913129109481427314335131523120319260138811915620950164872602523423405212018530994438622833738839351902486538747253822756125766292394381121082184372306235840000928317
CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed68180002937645400925311207016045639107943766179069949796161333010887635634848916529112639173711074415293834416660100884021410074843921289920153891699012698114441510719825268910198863812786830597089811371011730100613626535110379418417557000538678
Energy Efficiency000000000437004800000288019401166169810284445328473512181860191019591772911214454342816109639955314768143904119257801724346877312554705994122796990980445556515110841903946991154072818553000336737
Fuel switch000000001140000000001942791562360015961804419153255967116993610131552824418019268128934128343357313989212716311938221257199125074499815394846658450539834249553556922947025000207202
HFC, PFC & N2O reduction3859900000000000000000897754977700903440123922005876031714272201605627607192424076750125246822611010078788458673462996744191516288284470255815142904116183757468191900000768556
Afforestation & Reforestation0000000000000000000000000470174000004460028014933001515068017119301901603358352314814903474000013646
Accumulated Subtotals2012 MCERs
Renewables0.10.50.50.52.22.62.93.84.05.85.89.114.514.918.622.024.737.743.047.456.775.793.4108.9124.4133.5140.4153.5164.5178.7193.1206.2237.4256.7270.6289.7310.7327.1353.2376.6417.1437.3468.3512.2540.5579.3614.5639.4678.1703.5731.1756.8786.1829.9851.0869.4892.5928.3928.3928.3928.3
CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed6.86.86.86.89.816.216.216.225.526.627.327.933.544.348.149.950.651.160.774.084.991.3126.1135.3164.4170.8178.1188.9204.2212.5229.2239.3279.5289.6298.0319.3328.5333.9350.9363.6375.0390.1409.9412.6422.8431.5444.3452.6462.3472.1475.8487.5497.6501.2506.6516.9521.1538.7538.7538.7538.7
Energy Efficiency0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.40.40.40.50.50.50.50.50.50.80.82.714.415.125.429.832.736.236.238.040.041.959.670.975.475.877.487.196.6111.4125.8129.9155.7172.9219.8222.9228.4234.4246.7253.7263.5268.0274.5285.6304.7309.4320.9328.2336.7336.7336.7336.7
Fuel switch0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.30.62.15.77.39.19.69.79.79.89.911.012.013.013.141.459.462.191.0103.9107.2110.4111.2124.0127.1130.9132.2152.1157.1162.1177.5178.4179.0183.5187.5191.8197.3197.9200.2207.2207.2207.2207.2
HFC & N2O reduction38.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.638.6128.4178.2178.2178.2268.5268.5392.4392.4392.4451.2482.9485.6485.6501.7529.3531.2555.3630.3682.8705.4705.4715.4723.3729.2732.7733.7734.4736.3737.9746.2746.7749.3750.8753.7753.8754.0761.5768.4768.6768.6768.6768.6768.6
Afforestation & Reforestation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.50.60.60.60.60.60.61.11.11.11.11.12.62.62.64.24.24.24.25.96.06.06.06.06.26.26.86.910.010.210.213.613.613.613.613.6
Accumulated Total45.545.945.945.950.657.457.758.668.271.572.276.287.298.4105.9111.0114.5128.0233.2301.0324.6365.3510.4547.2720.6739.5757.5840.2900.1928.5962.41020.41131.31195.31260.21379.91501.11569.51630.71694.41760.81840.41915.12013.42058.82133.62194.32253.02324.42372.92410.92462.92517.52591.52635.92683.72724.22793.12793.12793.12793.1
Table 6:
TypekCERs/yrDec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08
Afforestation31894121
Agriculture41029561911017662105672832834613448164268286102442111012325756314940642175412929672412515528942
Biogas72548130901954520381110274468143483173172381569222368131119150303281885640250183292862713571561183
Biomass energy162122617531676422063983703172174289650746806696439187118049911953903851438795659621153853711875501362118513051008778740638350439600130714818691394540118312562856
Cement10678006933153150134631055537712718417311452321381324
CO2 capture7
Coal bed/mine methane51321369644672512308571513321018117613776204038594933550814666536343702501
Energy distribution555817
EE households73645487514830150
EE industry492472551411516329281753153943651373365212551923938621687295881881014723362146363990234459161
EE own generation19410715412196551187361472433412709214015370205166418242905284687650433151971820175610371626136976578510101888284190323291801504
EE service123825109215
EE supply side5469104112923068826178793083426481452841424232727501607
Fossil fuel switch133026203360163204641947112701561382953973469602565327056927842102963624911254489713821000336418814110541138105813001335741709
Fugitive1567722025321497665132500161243915852443250403371463
Geothermal2792811777544735175230340850
HFCs4793383421551590019388844035002802481012233347344213512521
Hydro1910766221104024513213615252591437118888146394898580788291624121337418022052028104313901429116735383470466416674133663131655995701242225972349229111989470469502640220738723367
Landfill gas7023419835301417076717128081725611643404707997258721182716104653618113101255182358988463572977811331024178286986312992589722005151325365455981001516112513394612898337501445
N2O9151596112682116473350440812451084013262111161112517501221723621749110583336294295011076
PFCs41803804554530
Reforestation4926156518262211134276144262114221
Solar439712946947532347208137
Tidal315
Transport7247412908120
Wind3720794193515796117100855433354839466572515873189419317895271037844138235659881211334981988209915121402103698214922176185211811926198114618412986
Total552937006101048351109794047055915611322130171144614811492910549324652722328746252681732193551137571042753615769101282156611846116662221124636140531251913454138511698415517219219644168471519713178153981319989961212313242185401116412444990418817000
13.7Million CERs added each month in the next
51months until Post Kyoto=1516Million 2012CERs expected from future projects
19months until Post Kyoto=218Million 2012CERs available from future projects
minus the timelag and projects failing
Table 7:
CERs issuedkCERs1/Oct/051/Nov/051/Jan/061/Mar/061/May/0620/Jun/069/Aug/0614/Sep/0620/Oct/0629/Nov/0620/Dec/0611/Jan/071/Feb/0714/Mar/071/Apr/071/May/0731/May/0711/Jun/0717/Jul/0727/Aug/071/Oct/071/Nov/074/Dec/078/Jan/081/Feb/081/Mar/081/Apr/081/May/0811/Jun/081/Aug/081/Sep/081/Oct/08
Afforestation
Agriculture293995995995995995995108411141140133119291929193419341934197420192052255027943031310031353135335734303430
Biogas8585858585858585858585852282282402402742742742742982982983173173173171031
Biomass energy484848482876181406253427482771448246015493551155115941598065926850705373287399762876898424873688739476102211034610490
Cement226226266469469469469594594703703703781781781781781820923923923
CO2 capture
Coal bed/mine methane767676197638638638
Energy distribution
EE households
EE industry61616262626262100168214221221221311369369387387387387410434568587587595595616
EE own generation6717817821521536343843843869369369362006247627865506764732773277327739174457468746874928280
EE service22222222222222222
EE supply side163030303030303030303030159159159159159
Fossil fuel switch2122922924024064070592310121166116611661220122012201226126112611261
Fugitive2782782782782782782782782782782782782785535535535535039503950395039515351535153
Geothermal27272727102102102102102102102102125125125125125125125125318318318
HFCs3513409276928480109381171414128154021644316443196242149823887259062891931089397754157041570475445090458896648966779772560775419361298322103874
Hydro1010101020346262372210541234154715471641195119522237223723042547270131753243345734923775398443785441657166296702
Landfill gas464646467373737318960560560568918392039211121112248229623012315285228893156323236103787436649874987
N2O125420052005200548536122612291909190919012246160511750419091216582165825033271242749232579335943758439855
PFCs
Reforestation
Solar
Tidal
Transport5959595959595959595959129
Wind861275577678979681318137014161444144414861878218622572715279127912919321335624415495450976830
TotalkCERs0581043617463593701084214445167672147624029281412850436077402944475150949541696316176045828678585094422102544110961126627132774139420152375173569183314194681
RenewablesSubtotals05858581425751165220034674472488370377228863890209066995299911072511617123161315913756142761439615542163561725519775223812270725372
CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed0046463391041106810681346134614622192222222902767451547144792491750545251557756236735701712083122281264212978144371513215132
Energy Efficiency00006161129240240277277463606652659933946103666016648675770287242780578287852804982528275828383079186
Fuel switch00000000000002122922924024064070592310121166116611661220122012201226126112611261
HFC & N2O reduction00035134092769284801093811714153821740718448184482447627620300083509738109402795202157621590746663572562805548993094921100051110120127206135907143730
Afforestation & Reforestation00000000000000000000000000000000
Afforestation & ReforestationMCERs0.00.10.13.64.69.410.814.416.821.524.028.128.536.140.344.850.954.263.276.082.985.894.4102.5111.0126.6132.8139.4152.4173.6183.3194.7
Fuel switchStacked0.00.10.13.64.69.410.814.416.821.524.028.128.536.140.344.850.954.263.276.082.985.894.4102.5111.0126.6132.8139.4152.4173.6183.3194.7
Energy Efficiencyfor curve0.00.10.13.64.69.410.814.416.821.524.028.128.536.140.144.550.753.962.575.381.984.893.3101.4109.8125.4131.6138.2151.1172.3182.1193.4
CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed0.00.10.13.64.69.310.714.216.521.223.827.727.935.439.443.649.852.955.968.775.277.886.093.6102.0117.6123.5129.9142.9164.0173.7184.2
Renewables0.00.10.13.64.28.39.613.115.219.922.325.525.733.136.639.145.048.151.063.669.972.280.486.895.0105.5111.3117.3129.9149.6158.6169.1
HFC & N2O reduction0.00.00.03.54.17.78.510.911.715.417.418.418.424.527.630.035.138.140.352.057.659.166.672.680.689.994.9100.1110.1127.2135.9143.7
Issuance success70.5%71.6%74.0%77.5%76.7%76.3%83.4%80.6%80.0%85.4%85.7%88.4%89.3%90.0%91.9%92.9%93.4%95.0%96.3%96.3%96.8%95.1%95.6%96.2%
The slope of the estimated CERS was first introduced in 31 May 2007 and added about 5%
Graph 1:Graph 4:
Graph 1:All the CDM projects in the pipeline are sorted after the month their 30 day public comment period under validation started.This graph shows almost the same as graph 1.
The graph shows the total number of CDM projects each month, and how many of these that have been submitted for registration.For each quarter is shows the bars for the number of project starting
The line on the graph shows the cumulative value in these monthly timelags.their comment period and the fraction submitted for registration.
The line shows this fraction as a percentage.
Note: This graph was developed together with Kenichiro Yamaguchi
Graph 2:
Graph 2:The line on graph 1 showing the cumulative average number of days between the Start of the 30 day period for public comment under
the validation and the request for registration is again shown on this graph. However, here the average monthly number of days used
for the calculation of the cumulative graph are shown.Graph 5:
Graph 3:
The time span (in months) between the start of the comment period under the validation and the date of the Letter Of Approval (LoA)
from the host country has been calculated for all projects requesting registration and registered projects.
When the LoA comes before the validation the value on the graph is negative.
Percentage of projects with delay < 0:19%
Average delay for those with delay > 0:5.2Months
*
311
3798701
3801800
3804700
412
130
501
210
600
222
100
810
762
421
711
530
920
2132
12134
2131
34123
35227
472516
443613
393219
10169
22513
152511
112910
33915
44427
172917
59739
45261
33631
64834
35637
15224
15139
391426168
15564
392036072
392344585
3926444130
392952281
3932619137
3935613128
393874122
39417294
394481106
394791114
395080116
395390138
395690147
396000128
396300116
396610122
396920155
&A
Page &P
Number of projects with CERs issued
Registration Requested but no issuance
Not Yet Submitted/withdrawn/rejected
Number of Projects each month
Number of CDM projects starting the public comments period each month, the number of them that have requested registration, and the number of them that have CERs issued.
609.25609.25
37987609.25
38018609.25
38047609.25
687.4652.6666666667
612.5640.3076923077
453.4588.3888888889
309.3333333333548.5238095238
269.1666666667486.4444444444
451.75481.9677419355
317476.8125
280.7777777778433.7804878049
374.9230769231419.6111111111
355.5413.2
270.625396.4264705882
180.75373.7236842105
229.2727272727355.4597701149
257.25334.2252252252
277.08323.7205882353
197.0833333333304.725
304.4565217391304.6650485437
253.8947368421293.6615969582
253.5833333333285.047761194
310.3875289.9325301205
287.8591549296289.6296296296
297.5769230769290.033203125
290290.0315398887
238.6286.4784110535
213.325281.7512116317
234.9761904762278.7791225416
271.375278.2778561354
229.7608695652275.3218543046
229.3137254902269.8459743291
285.2321428571270.7897042716
229.5128205128269.0987394958
281.5269.7644135189
266.1016949153269.5615023474
249.4716981132268.6091234347
219.9615384615266.447008547
252.7540983607265.7684809098
258.9821428571265.4731934732
271.8666666667265.7579806978
242.8444444444265.0172413793
266.1363636364265.0515320334
232.8181818182264.5651577503
277264.7251184834
219.6923076923264.3322147651
264.1914323963
264.0340909091
&A
Page &P
Average time to submission (monthly)
Average time to submission (cumulative)
Days
Monthly and cumulative average timelag between the start of public comment period and submission of request for registration
7
-29
-28
3
1
1
-24
-23
-22
1
-20
2
-18
-17
2
-15
1
10
1
7
6
6
5
8
14
8
14
20
27
50
87
254
171
133
118
114
77
68
53
35
38
31
31
22
11
13
12
5
9
4
20
Number of months
Number of CDM projects
Time span between start of comment period and host country LoA. Distribution of number of CDM projects in each month in this interval.
420.6666666667
1430.8235294118
1320.8666666667
2320.92
2220.9166666667
6060.9090909091
127110.9202898551
223480.8228782288
93330.7380952381
130520.7142857143
2041170.6355140187
1521020.5984251969
1661310.5589225589
1612210.4214659686
853480.1963048499
193440.0523415978
Registration Requested
Not Yet Submitted/withdrawn/rejected
% requesting registration
Number of Projects each quarter
The percentage submitted for registration
Number of CDM projects starting the public comments period each quarter, the number of them that have requested registration, and the fraction in % as a curve
62.25
71.625
65.8888888889
97.2105263158
51.3125
68.2931034483
52.6875
88.4736842105
85.5882352941
79.8032786885
74.1818181818
77.5555555556
77.38
68.82
68.4683544304
102.5588235294
112.3333333333
82.5952380952
99.6883116883
80.4130434783
107.25
89.1304347826
160.375
153.3333333333
132.3333333333
144.3414634146
165.5909090909
156.652173913
117.125
111.8181818182
117.7575757576
95.8095238095
Days
Average time from request registration until registration
Chart3
10318.3160.0530011803
24340.6060.125028236
15239.810.0782809828
143729.7670.7382839697
1052.3730.0054056312
Methods
The282proposed new (baseline & Monitoring) methodologies sent to the Executive Board(Resubmitted methodologies are only counted once, CCS methodologies not included)Table 3:
The Pipeline was produced by Jrgen Fenhann, UNEP Ris Centre 01-10-08, [email protected], Phone (+45)46775105InitialDaysNumberNumber
Table 1:SubmissionDecisionDays toDecisionDays todecisionRejectionApprovalPer roundCumulative
RoundMeth. No.TypeDescriptionAM/ACMGHG reduction/yrHost countryCredit buyerConsultantTitledate1. Mark1.Mark1. MarkEnd markEnd markEnd markRoundaverageaverageaverageSubmittedAC/ withdrawnPendingAC/ withdrawnPending
11Biomass energyBagasse powerAM1540 ktCO2Braziln.a.ECONERGY BrasilVale Do Rosrio bagasse cogeneration15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354A28/Nov/032271545421914680680
12FugitiveFuel switch from coke to charcoal in steel works (=NM29=NM104=NM278)384 ktCO2BrazilIFC-Netherlands & JapanEcoSecuritiesV&M Do Brazil avoided fuel switch project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/0354261611412110790
13CO2 captureCO2 from NH3 production used in methanol prod.229 ktCO2Trinidad & TobagoGermanyHamburg Inst. of Int. EconomicsM5000 plant in Republic of TrinidAB and Tobago15/Apr/03C8/Jun/03543198668287541011100
14LandfillLandfill gas flaringAM2ca. 800 ktCO2Braziln.a.ICF Consulting UKSalvABor Da Bahia landfill gas project15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354A29/Jul/0310542193473081486019160
15LandfillLandfill gas electricityAM3ca. 300 ktCO2BrazilWB NCDFEcosecuritiesNovaGerar landfill gas to energy project15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354A17/Oct/031855245224415981027170
16HydroHydro Power144 ktCO2GuatamalaPCFHernan GarciaGuatamala El CanABa Hydroelectric project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/035461911853511156032230
17HFCsBurning HFC23 from HCFC22 productionAM11400 ktCO2South KoreaJapanClimate Experts Ltd.HFCs decomposition project in Ulsan15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354A29/Jul/031057194181241927034300
18HydroHydro Power100 ktCO2Costa RicaCERUPTCosta Rica Institute of ElectricityPeas Blancas hydroelectric project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/0354820522735320911043410
19Biomass energyRice husk power plant (el + steam + cement)400 ktCO2Thailandn.a.Mitsubishi SecuritiesA.T. Biopower rice husk power project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/035491811662191798052490
110LandfillLandfill gas electricityAM10400 ktCO2South AfricaPCFPCFDurban, South Africa landfill gas to electricity15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354A17/Oct/03185101512253641367058560
111Biomass energyBagasse Power100 ktCO2Indian.a.SCM Sugars Limited (India)26 MW bagasse/Biomass cogenerationpower project , Koppa15/Apr/03C8/Jun/0354Average time:111802653841028060640
112WindWind farmACM253 ktCO2JamaicaCERUPTEcoSecuritiesWigton wind farm project15/Apr/03B8/Jun/0354Con3/Sep/04507Initial5412174326226734063680
114Biomass energyRice husk power plant (Combined with NM9)400 ktCO2Thailandn.a.Mitsubishi SecuritiesA.T. Biopower rice husk power project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/0354Rejection54131623003681156068740
115Biomass energyRice husk power plant (Combined with NM9)400 ktCO2Thailandn.a.Mitsubishi SecuritiesA.T. Biopower rice husk power project15/Apr/03C8/Jun/0354Approval21914235320308231210180841
213Biogas0,65 MW biogas power from palm oil waste water27 ktCO2MalaysiaJapanEX Corporation, JapanFELDA Lepar Hilir palm oil mill, biogas project in Malaysia29/May/03C29/Jul/0361Initial61152232033761578087921
216Fuel switchFuel switch from coal to natural gasAM8/ACM918 ktCO2ChileJapan (J-Power)MGM InternationalGraneros plant fuel switching project29/May/03B29/Jul/0361A17/Oct/03141Rejection6116182119345922589946
317EE industryEfficiency improvement of steam use at refineryAM17100 ktCO2Chinan.a.ArmstrongSteam system efficiency improvement in refineris in Fushun, China16/Jul/03B26/Mar/04254A3/Dec/04506Approval1411717916336710361921007
318EE supply sideNew cogeneration industrial plant using natural gasAM14115 ktCO2ChileJapan (J-Power)MGM InternationalMetrogas package cogeneration project16/Jul/03B26/Mar/04254A3/Sep/044151817418423421101101021117
319Biomass energyRice husk power plant (only electricity, =NM9)AM4400 ktCO2Thailandn.a.Mitsubishi SecuritiesA.T. Biopower rice husk power project16/Jul/03A17/Oct/0393Initial1981918518518584311061148
320HydroHydro Power (=NM125)70 ktCO2ColombiaJapan (J-Power)MGM InternationalLa Vuelta and La Herradura hydroelectric project16/Jul/03B26/Mar/04254C14/May/05668Rejection668201561232231236310912011
321LandfillLandfill gas power for on site usageAM1170 ktCO2BrazilCERUPTONYXCERUPT methodology for landfill gas recovery16/Jul/03A28/Nov/03135Approval287212142223121014511012416
422BiogasBiogas power from swine manureAM690 ktCO2ChileCanadaPoch Ambiental, ChileCH4 capture and combustion from swine manure treatment at Peralillo10/Sep/03B26/Mar/04198A14/Jun/04278221811891631036111313017
423HydroHydro powerAM570 ktCO2MexicoPCFPCFEl Gallo hydroelectric project (
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Market tiers widen, following risk allocationless risk to Buyermore risk to Buyer3: firm volume3: registration3: fungibilityLarger projectsExperienced sponsorsFinancing in placeLater in pipelineSmaller projectsWeaker sponsorsFinancing risk highEarly in pipelineRisk premium
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Kyoto market balance Cumm.2008-12Potential Gap (2008-2012)in MtCO2e(with existing measures)Potential Supply (2008-2012)in MtCO2e(with existing measures)Demand for Kyoto Mechs. at least 2.4 GtCO2e (1.4 already contracted)Green Invest. Scheme at least 1GtCO2e (safety-valve?)Iceland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand
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EU-ETS: ready for Phase IIPhII: ITL/CITL up and runninggeneral cap at 2,098 mlln EUAs per year (6% below 2005 emissions). average limit imports of CERs & ERUs: 13.4% (280 MtCO2e/yr)price forecasts: 25 to 40 on avg (before economic crisis)More liquidity
PhIII: EU proposal (2013-2020)at least 20% 1990 levels by 2020 (20/20/20)still many aspects to be negotiated yet
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Todays discussionThe CF in 2008 onwards (within Kyoto)And beyond: mainstream to the CC AgendaThe Carbon Market 2007
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Reductions of 50 GtCO2e/year needed by 2050: Current trading is very small (only 4 GtCO2e* expected in 2008)2. Volume of carbon transacted (GtCO2e)50 GtCO2e per year needed by 2050.
Current carbon trading is 4 GtCO2e but actual physical volume of reduction barely half of that amount as the market includes large trade in permits (essentially quotas repeatedly changing hands).
Enormous gap between effort needed and current volumes.Dramatic reductions of GHG emissions required. Unless addressed, emissions and temperature will rise to unacceptably high levels.
Stabilization at 550 ppm CO2e by 2050 needs emissions to go down 60% from business-as-usual.
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will be critical. Source: WB State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008, Stern 2007, Point Carbon 2008, IPCC 2007, McKinsey, New Carbon Finance1. Effort required to stabilize emissions by 2050 (GtCO2e)Source: Stern, 2007*GtCO2e: Billion tons CO2-equivalent
GHG vs CDM
0.170.0070699136
0.030.1437549097
0.260.6967792616
0.130.0018329406
0.080.0047132757
0.190.1008117308
0.140.0450379681
Sources of GHG emissions
Type of CDM projects
Volume traded
0.008490.097960.00910.01071
0.3210.3510.0110.027
1.1040.5620.0160.063
2.0610.7910.0410.09
2.61.233960.063960.20952
EU ETS
CDM
JI
Other
G tCO2e transacted
Sheet1
Sources of GHG emissionsType of CDM projects
Land use, Land-use change and Forestry17.0%0.7%
Waste3.0%14.4%
Energy supply26.0%69.7%
Transportation13.0%0.2%
Residential and Commercial buildings8.0%0.5%
Industry19.0%10.1%
Agriculture14.0%4.5%
Total100.0%100.0%
EU ETSOtherTotal allowancesPrimary CDMSecondary CDMJIOther compliance, voluntary and retailTotal project-based transactions
20048.497.7916.2897.000.969.102.92109.98
2005321.007.00328.00341.0010.0011.0020.00382.00
20061,104.0030.001,134.00537.0025.0016.0033.00611.00
20072,061.0048.002,109.00551.00240.0041.0042.00874.00
20082,600.00144.002,744.00859.56374.4063.9665.521,363.44
EU ETSCDMJIOtherTotal
20040.010.100.010.010.13
20050.320.350.010.030.71
20061.100.560.020.061.75
20072.060.790.040.092.98
2008 (forecast)2.601.230.060.214.11
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet4
Sheet5
Sheet6
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Untapped potential: how much can carbon markets contribute?Analysts estimates of growth of carbon marketTotal market: 9.4 billion tons p.a.Share of offsets: 1.7 billion ton p.a.Actions required to stabilize emissions at 550 ppm: reduce by 50 billion tons per year.
Difficult to quantify, but 25% could come from offset markets.
2020 data: Point Carbon; 2050: Stern Review, UNFCCC, Costs: UNFCCC, Stern, WBOffsets (such as credits from developing countries) could possibly expand 8 times in 30 yearsTotal carbon assets2020 scenario (GtCO2e*)OffsetsTotal carbon assetsRequired actions by 20502050 scenario (GtCO2e)1.79.412.5?50*GtCO2e: giga (x109) ton of CO2-equivalentCost of Climate Change:Mitig.: US$200-1,000 billion p.a.Adapt.: US$30-70 billion p.a.
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Decisions neededSource: Stern, 2008
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Full report available at
www.carbonfinance.org
Thank you
THE GROWTH OF THE CARBON MARKET$64 billion (07) > $31 billion (06) > $11 billion (05)Dominated by financial value of transactions of EUAs and derivatives - 80%, mainly from sale and re-sale of standardized European Union Allowance (EUAs) for hedging (future position), arbitrage (X-commodity trade)+ compliance
EUAs market$50 blln (07) > $24.4 blln (06) > $7.9 blln66% of volumes80% of valueIn EURO, 25 to 46 blln or +86%
Project Primary market $8.2 blln (07) > $ 6.1 blln (06) > $2.4 blln CDMI accounts for 91% of this valueStationary CDM but growing JICDMI: 18% of volumes12% of value 2007: Primary CDM : Attracted capital: US$13blln under management (Aug 08), potentially US$18blln
2ndary market boomed $5.5 blln (07) > $ 0.5 blln (06) CDMII: 8% of volumes9% of value
Voluntary market boomed (incl. CCX) $0.5 blln (07) > $ 0.01 blln (06)
BUT PROJECT MARKET MOMENTUM AT RISK (crossing roads)CDM faces challenges: procedural delays and regulatory inefficiencies threatens further deployment of CDM, in particular in countries just entering the carbon marketTIME TO RE-THINK THE CDM, TO SCALE UP ON CARBON FINANCEThere is not a single global carbon market yet, not allowing long-term pricing signals.
Taking signals from the climate negotiations, various players have emerged and created carbon markets. Today, multiple assets are traded (offsets and allowances, voluntary and regulated, addressing consumer demand, corporate and compliance needs, as well as various derivatives) in multiple markets with increasing depth and sophistication.
World mapDark blue: EUs Emissions Trading Scheme, which trades within EuropeOrange: Countries with Kyoto obligations outside Europe (CAN/AUS/NZ/Japan)Light Blue: Joint Implementation markets (allows participation in supplying carbon assets by Economies in Transition)Green: Clean Development Mechanism countries
US mapVoluntary markets, including on both coasts of North America with participation from 44 US and Canadian states and provincial governments. Blue: Regional Greenhouse Gas initiative (RGGI): First RGGI auction held on 9/25/08 and successfully completed for 12.5 million tons at clearing price of US$3.07/ton.Brown: Western Climate Initiative (WCI) led by California. Note: ONTARIO has just joined WCI and the brown section is expanded accordingly.
Other Emerging markets: Australia ETS; New Zealand ETS.
NOTE: with the auction of Allowances by the East Coast RGGI on 9/25, there are now eight carbon assets being traded.Assigned Amount Units (AAUs): Annex-I Parties are issued AAUs up to the level of their assigned amount, corresponding to the quantity of greenhouse gases they can release in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol (Art. 3), during the first commitment period of that protocol (2008-12). AAUs equal one tCO2e.European Union Allowances (EUAs): the allowances in use under the EU ETS. An EUA unit is equal to one metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent.Removal unit (RMU): A Kyoto Protocol unit representing an allowance to emit 1 metric tonne of CO2 equivalent. RMUs are issued for emission removals from Land use, Land-Use Change and Forectry (LULUCF) activities.Certified Emission Reductions (CERs): A unit of greenhouse gas emission reductions issued pursuant to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, and measured in metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. One CER represents a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of one tCO2e.Emission Reduction Units (ERUs): A unit of emission reductions issued pursuant to Joint Implementation (JI). This unit is equal to one metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent.Verified Emission Reductions (VERs): A unit of greenhouse gas emission reductions that has been verified by an independent auditor. This designates emission reductions units that are traded on the voluntary market; occasional reference to Voluntary Emission Reductions is an inexact comparison, as these may not have been audited.Carbon Financial Instrument (CFI) contract is the commodity traded at the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX). Each CFI represents 100 metric tons of CO2 equivalent. CFI contracts are comprised of Exchange Allowances and Exchange Offsets. Exchange Allowances are issued to emitting Members in accordance with their emission baseline and the CCX Emission Reduction Schedule. Exchange Offsets are generated by qualifying offset projects.
The Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), launched in 2003, is an active voluntary, legally binding and integrated trading system to reduce emissions of all six major greenhouse gases (GHGs), with offset projects worldwide. Its members are mostly North American companies with high level of emissions.Concentration of China, India, Brazil. Smallest bypassed !
Bundling multiple smaller contracts into a larger carbon deal will be attractive to buyers, using financial intermediaries and other aggregation instruments.Scale up building on success of traditional sectors
Large number of RE contracts signed
Since Bali, increasing interest on avoided deforestation
Starting with more boutique project activity in early 2003, there was a huge spike in 2005 when projects targeting the industrial gases (HFCs and N2O) entered the market. This tended to be seen as gaming the market, because few development benefits could be associated with such projects (China set up a CDM Fund financed from a tax on such projects, as high as 65%!). But since then the CDM has moved progressively towards more development focus (clean energy).FIs: Financial Intermediaries.Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) mainly waste by-products from the refrigeration chemicals production process. HFCs have a very high Global Warming Potential (GWP) [11,700 over 100 years], and offer therefore a very attractive opportunity to reduce GHGs.Landfill gas (LFG): a waste gas containing methane and other gases emitted by landfills. The GWP of methane (CH4) is approximately 21.Nitrous oxide (N2O) - Agriculture is the main source of human-produced N2O: cultivating soil, the production and use of nitrogen fertilizers, and animal waste handling can all stimulate naturally occurring bacteria to produce more nitrous oxide. The livestock sector (primarily cows, chickens, and pigs) produces 65% of human-related nitrous oxide. GWP of N2O is 310. Coal mine methane (CMM) refers to methane released from the coal and surrounding rock strata during mining activities. CMM is a potent greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change if emitted to the atmosphere. CMM can also create an explosive hazard inside mines. But if CMM is recovered safely and used for energy, it is a valuable, clean-burning fuel source.[NOTE: Global warming potential (GWP) compares a GHGs contribution to global warming compared to CO2 (which has a GWP by definition of 1). ]Fugitive emissions: air pollutants released to the air other than those from stacks or vents. They are often due to equipment leaks, evaporative processes, and windblown disturbances. Will not double as in 2007, but based on larger basis, still a respectful growth still dominated by EU ETS and financial instruments
It is likely that primary CER might have lower volume than previous years:2012 getting closer, most low-hanging-fruits already contracted, delay refrain agreementsForward contracts do not mean disbursement! Only 195 mlln CERs issued so far
74% to high yield projects (industrials gas); RE and EE stuck somewhere in the pipeline. CERs from RE and EE not being issued
Procedurals delays for CDM (not to mention JI)Of 4,064 projects, 2,565 at validation (63%)DOEs: 18 months for accreditation, staffing shortage, 6 months waiting listComplex and Changing rules: further delays, incorrect validation or monitoringCDM EB: increased review at both registration and issuance
Biggest risks to underlying projectsFinancial package in jeopardy since mostly payment on deliveriesDampen enthusiasm and slow down innovationMay deter market interest from projects that really need carbon finance component, especially in regions and countries that are just entering the marketGlobal mitigation benefits and local benefits at risk
From primary market to secondary marketProduction of C-asset subject to regulatory inefficiencies and procedural delays and other more intrinsic factors (financial closure, )Some companies took excessive risk and regulator should not be fully blamed for current developments, though CDM needs reform
So, how many of these projects, among the riskier ones, will make it? MORE THAN EVER, DELIVERY AT THE MIND OF BUYERSPrices of project-based assets, with risk allocation between buyer and seller a major factor
So, how many of these projects, among the riskier ones, will make it? MORE THAN EVER, DELIVERY AT THE MIND OF BUYERS > higher prices for creditworthy projects in more stable economies: fetching EUR12+
EUAs recently trading at EUR 28+sCERs recently trading at EUR 20+Better view on Kyoto market balance: overall long, enough supply of KM but enhanced domestic action as well as AAU to close the gap
Demand for KM: 2.4 to 3.2 blln Private sector accounts for 60% to 75% of demandResidual demand private and public on par.
US would represent additional 12,150 GtCO2e demand, but also a lot internal supply
Downward revision of CDM supply, ?? for JI
AAU/GIS
Countries Long on Kyoto but short on EU ETS included in demandVolume of CO2 transacted Chart: (Data from Stern Report and IPCC, 550ppm stabilization is a mid-range scenario)Chart 1 explained:Current (2005) emissions: 45 GtCo2eThis is expected in the Business-as-Usual scenario to grow to 84 GtCO2e per year by 2050.The 550 parts per million (ppm) stabilization target (associated with a temperature increase of no more than 3Celcius) requires a reduction to 34 GtCO2e per year by 2050.There are two assumptions in making the projection:There will be agreement on targetsAll OECD and non-OECD EU states will be participating
2020 Scenario (Source: Point-Carbon):The Blue columns represent the total po