Standards for Modeling Standards for Modeling Plant PestsPlant Pests

Roger MagareyMid-West Weather Working Group

August 3, 2012

http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/np/fnrb/fnrb0104.htm http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov

iPIPE

Example standards

http://flowerandmonster.com/

Salamis stone

Information Technology (IT) PlatformHierarchy of Information Flow

Information Technology (IT) PlatformStakeholder Participation

Training

Government

University

Industry

Public

Education

Policy

Research

Modeling

Management

Monitoring

News, Programs

Publications, brochures, online info, press releases, program lists

Publications, brochures, online info, press releases, program lists

Publications, brochures, online info, press releases, program lists

Educational Webinars

Onsite seminars

Public outings

Meetings, speakers

Public outings

K-12 school projects

Stimulus programs

Food security

Subsidies

Incentives

Clean Water Act

Clean Air Act

Section 109

State 303D

CRP

CREP

Nutrient management plans

Subsurfer manure injection

Stormwater ordinances

Septic system permits

Volunteer conservation

Severe weather alerts

Best management practices

Resource allocation

Impaired watersheds

Resource allocation

Nutrient credit trading

Carbon credit trading

Green economics

WIPs, TMDLs

CAPS pest list Non-ag water pollutants

Reanalysis products

Management scenarios

Climate manage zones

Agricultural statistics

Suitability indices Backstop measures Research on ensemble practices

Conservation systems

Weather models

RUSLE2, WEPS 1.0,

APEX models

CEAP models

Step-L, WASP models AVGWLF, PreDICT models

Chesapeake Bay (Phase 5) model

Stormwater models

Weather data

SSURGO soil data

Crop data

Phenology data

Stream gage data

Topography data

Land use and cover

Watershed data

Stream surveys

Farm surveys

Social surveys

Student scientists

Citizen scientists

Tri-County Assoc.

Londonberry Twshp.

Local Municipalities

Individuals

PA-Universities

PA-Penn Dept. Agric.

PA- Chesapeake Bay

PA-Conserv. Districts

PA-NRCS

PA-DEP

PA-ARS

PA-EPA

NOAA-NWS

USDA-NRCS

USDA-NASS

USDA-ARS

USDA-For. Serv.

USGS-NPN

USGS-NSIP

US-EPA

Information Technology (IT) PlatformSources of U.S. Data and Information for Watershed Applications

Consequences of lack of standards

• It is difficult to compare models, even those constructed for the same pests, because the models have different inputs and outputs.

• The knowledge base for a model can easily be lost when the author retires or moves on

• Models are developed in many different computer languages, adding another obstacle to researchers who wish to compare, evaluate, validate or adapt existing models.

Challenges to developing standards

There is great variability in the design and construction of prediction models for plant pests, weeds, and diseases due to:•Biological diversity e.g., pests (weeds, fungi, arthropods, bacteria, etc.) and hosts •Diversity in modeling approaches, including the choice of algorithm and the associated biological and weather inputs and outputs.

Who would standards help?

• Researchers (modelers) wishing to share, build, or evaluate new models or adapt existing models to new pests/hosts

• Extension specialists wishing to build, evaluate or archive models

• Public and private service providers wishing to deploy new models

• Identify Agricultural Components Requiring Standards

• Compose a Glossary of Standard Agricultural Terms

• Develop a Standard API for Distribution to Industry

• Develop a XML Schema for Data/Information Sharing

• Address Security Issues of Information Ownership

• Create a Level Playing Field to Foster Innovation

• Fit Regulatory Concerns into Standards

• Identify Members to Lead Standards Movement

AgGateway Organization and Activities

• Database Structures

• Data Formats and Field Names

• Data Ownership, Privacy, and User Rights

• Variable Names, Definitions, and Units

• Model Structures and Configurations of Input and Output

• Application Programming Interface (API) Standard

• Web Services Description Language (WSDL ) Standard

• Security Levels for Information

• Equipment and Telematics Specification Guidelines and Standards

• Quality Control Procedures Including Objective Benchmarks

• Customer Service Center for Resolving Product Issues

Agricultural Components Requiring Standards

Our Job is to Identify Standards for Models

Potential areas for standards include•Model definitions•Model documentation•Model inputs, outputs and parameters•Model evaluation with observations•Model metadata•Model integration•Sharing of models and/or exchange of model outputs and executables through web services (i.e. XML)•Model applications especially for decision making in the field

Conclusion

The advent of webservices and the AgGateway initiative provides a unique opportunity to standardize and harmonize agricultural modeling, with plant pest models leading the way.