Stakeholder-driven, multi-sectoral climate adaptation in small urban areas ASP Colloquium - 6 th...
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Transcript of Stakeholder-driven, multi-sectoral climate adaptation in small urban areas ASP Colloquium - 6 th...
Stakeholder-driven, multi-sectoral climate adaptation in small urban areas
ASP Colloquium - 6th August 2014, Boulder
Amanda Edelman, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Alex Libardoni, Penn State University
Maria Pregnolato, University of Newcastle
Derek Rosendahl, University of Oklahoma
Katrin Sedlmeier, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Julie Shortridge, Johns Hopkins University
Heather Yocum, University of Colorado and NOAA
Outline
Overview
Introduction
Impact Assessment
Climate analysis
Evaluation
Conclusion
• Motivation • Research plan
• Challenges • Research questions • Approach • Outcomes
• Objectives • Approach • Outcomes
• Overview • Research questions
Objective
• To develop an integrated framework that will support stakeholder driven climate adaptation plans for urban areas
Research Question
• Does using an iterative, stakeholder-driven approach improve outcomes such as consensus, generation of alternatives and social learning?
OVERVIEW IMPACT CLIMATE EVALUATION CONCLUSIONINTRODUCTION
Stakeholder
• Ongoing engagement with climate scientists throughout the tool development process
Impact Assessment• Integration of differing levels of adaptive capacity and
resilience within the population response to climate change events
OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
Motivation Research Plan
IMPACT CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
Research Plan Framework
OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
Motivation Research Plan
IMPACT CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
Research Timeline
OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
Motivation Research Plan
IMPACT CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
Challenges
- Many infrastructure systems already very sensitive to climate today
- Infrastructure impacts analysis:
- Evaluation of physical disruptions without consideration of
- How do these disruptions impact human wellbeing?
- How do people respond? Adaptive capacity?
- Impacts are uncertain – but so are the consequences and ability to respond
IMPACT CLIMATE
Challenges OutcomesApproach
OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
Research questions
CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
Research questions
1. Are extreme climatic conditions associated with a measurable increase in infrastructure disruptions, negative public health outcomes and economic losses that cannot be captured by considering mean climatic conditions alone?
2. Does combination of survey-based measurements of exposure and adaptive capacity improve estimates of health and economic outcomes relative to the use of physical measurements alone?
IMPACT CLIMATE
OutcomesApproach
OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
Research questionsChallenges
CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
IMPACT
OutcomesApproach
OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
1. Empirical evaluation to relate climate extremes, infrastructure outages and community impact• Independent variables related to climate events, for example:– 24-hour precipitation above some threshold– 7-day average maximum temperature• Example response variables related to
– Physical infrastructure outages (water, power, transport): Percent of system concurrently out of service, outage duration
– Economic losses: insurance claims, school closures– Public health outcomes: all-cause mortality, 911 calls,
hospital visits
CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
Research questionsChallenges
2. Assessment of exposure/adaptive capacity
• Survey-based evaluation of
– Exposure: what are the major physical stressors related to climate extremes and infrastructure disruptions that the household has faced in the past five years?
– Adaptive capacity: How did the household respond when faced with these physical stressors, and what encouraged or limited the degree of response?
• Census data: Age, education, employment, etc.• Neighborhood-level indicators of exposure, adaptive capacity,
and resilience
IMPACT
Outcomes
(Romero-Lankao et al., 2014)
OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
Approach
CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
Research questionsChallenges
Outcomes
• Identification of climate conditions and physical stressors (such as infrastructure disruptions) that cause greatest impacts in city
• Relation of physical exposure to impacts on human health and economic wellbeing
• Geographically-specific information on exposure and adaptive capacity across city
IMPACTOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
Outcomes
CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
ApproachResearch questionsChallenges
Objectives
• Identify changes in relevant climate variables to support adaptation planning in urban areas
• Address associated uncertainties
– Future emissions
– Model structure
– Internal Variability
CLIMATE
Objectives OutcomesApproach
IMPACTOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
CLIMATE
Objectives OutcomesApproach
IMPACTOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
Climate projections
• Statistically downscaled CMIP 5 data products
• Testing of different statistical downscaling methods for downscaling of NARCCAP Ensemble data
(Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011)
CLIMATE
Objectives OutcomesApproach
IMPACTOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
Assessment of hazardous events
• Interaction with impact modelers
• Assessment of projected changes in occurrence of the relevant climate variables and extremes
• Develop methods for description of multivariate extremes/return periods
• Estimation of uncertainties by using ensembles of climate simulations
CLIMATE
Objectives OutcomesApproach
IMPACTOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
Outcomes
• Projected changes of hazardous events relevant for infrastructure
• Tools (e.g. risk maps) that combine climate change and impact studies (together with impact modelers)
• Estimation of uncertainties by using ensembles of climate simulations
• Workshops for stakeholders to explain climate results
Tool Examples
IMPACT
Outcomes
OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
http://animalnewyork.com/2013/nycs-newest-flood-zones-map/http://commerce.alaska.gov/dnn/dcra/PlanningLandManagement/RiskMAP.aspx
CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION
Evaluation
• Outcomes
(1) consensus-building
(2) generation of alternatives
(3) social learning
• Interviews and surveys
– Before, during, and after process
• Participant observation
– During workshops and meetings
EVALUATION CONCLUSION
Overview Research Questions
IMPACT CLIMATEOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
EVALUATION CONCLUSIONIMPACT CLIMATEOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
Outcomes: (1) consensus-building; (2) generation of alternatives; (3) social learning
Overview Research Questions
Questions to Guide Evaluation
1. Does this process increase connectivity amongst actors or deepen existing connections? (Outcomes 1 and 3)
2. How does this interaction impact the production of climate information? Does it change workshop participants’ perceptions of uncertainty and climate information? (Outcomes 2 and 3)
3. Does this approach succeed in bringing under-served or under-represented stakeholders into the decision-making processes? (Outcomes 1 and 3)
4. How does the inclusion (or exclusion) of these groups affect impact modeling, tool design and the generation of
adaptation options? (Outcome 2)
Conclusion
• Cities are aware of the need to:
– Adapt to climate change and extremes
– Involve stakeholders in this process
• How to do this – still unclear
• This project will create
– a framework for stakeholder-driven adaptation
– Insights into the benefits and challenges of taking this approach
EVALUATION CONCLUSIONIMPACT CLIMATEOVERVIEW INTRODUCTION
…thank you.