STAGES TO APPROPRIATE STAGES TO APPROPRIATE WEATHER-RELATED WEATHER-RELATED RESPONSERESPONSE

National Surface Transportation Weather SymposiumJuly 25, 2007Dr. BettyBetty Hearn Morrow

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Stages to Appropriate Stages to Appropriate Weather-Related ResponseWeather-Related Response

I.I. FORECASTFORECAST

II.II. HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENTHAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT

III.III. RISK REDUCTIONRISK REDUCTION

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I. FORECASTI. FORECAST

A. AccuracyA. Accuracy

B. DisseminationB. Dissemination

– Multiple ChannelsMultiple Channels

– Multiple ModalitiesMultiple Modalities

Factors Affecting EffectivenessFactors Affecting Effectiveness

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RISK COMMUNICATION:RISK COMMUNICATION: A MULTISTATE SOCIAL PROCESS A MULTISTATE SOCIAL PROCESS

RECEIVINGRECEIVING

UNDERSTANDINGUNDERSTANDING

BELIEVINBELIEVINGG

PERSONALIZINGPERSONALIZINGAdapted from Tierney, K., M.K. Lindell and R. Perry. 2001

SENDINGSENDING

National WeatherNational WeatherServiceService

Appropriate Citizen ResponsesAppropriate Citizen Responses

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Severe Weather Communication SystemSevere Weather Communication System

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BETTER FORECASTS AND DISSEMINATION AREN’T ENOUGH

They Must:They Must:

Be Understood Be Understood

Result in Effective Risk Result in Effective Risk AssessmentAssessment

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II. HAZARD RISK II. HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENTASSESSMENTA.A. Forecast UnderstandingForecast Understanding

1. Message Clarity1. Message Clarity

2. Characteristics of 2. Characteristics of ReceiversReceivers

B. Vulnerability B. Vulnerability AssessmentAssessment

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A.A. Forecast UnderstandingForecast Understanding

1. Message Clarity1. Message Clarity

To what extent do responders To what extent do responders understand terms such as:understand terms such as:

• tropical cyclone categorytropical cyclone category• watchwatch• warningwarning• storm surge?storm surge?

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60%

33%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Does the category assigned to a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center refer to its wind

strength, expected surge level, or both?

WIND STRENGTH

SURGE LEVEL

BOTH

From From Post-Katrina Behavioral SurveyPost-Katrina Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin, PI. Hugh Gladwin, PIFunded by National Science FoundationFunded by National Science Foundation

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37%

42%

22%

45%

35%

20%

42%

36%

22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Louisiana Mississippi Alabama

When a 12-14 foot storm surge is forecast, is this the expected high water mark?

Don't Know

Yes

No

No important differences by evacuation plans, living in an evacuation zone, ageCollege graduates, higher income more likely to give correct answerWomen more likely to say they did not know

From From Post-Katrina Behavioral SurveyPost-Katrina Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin, PI. Hugh Gladwin, PIFunded by National Science FoundationFunded by National Science Foundation

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Hurricane Local StatementHurricane Local Statement

Insert

Quote, Graph or Picture

Here

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane ScaleWith Range of Hazards at the Coast and Inland

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane ScaleWith Range of Hazards at the Coast and Inland

Major hurricanesMajor hurricanes

SurgeSurge

WindWind

RainRain

TornadoTornado

Category 1Winds: 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)

Category 1Winds: 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)

Category 2Winds: 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)

Category 2Winds: 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)

Category 3Winds: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)

Category 3Winds: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)

Category 4Winds: 131-155 mph(114-135 kt)

Category 4Winds: 131-155 mph(114-135 kt)

Category 5Winds: > 155 mph(> 136 kt)

Category 5Winds: > 155 mph(> 136 kt)

LowLow

ModerateModerate

ExtremeExtreme

HighHigh

LowLow

ModerateModerate

ExtremeExtreme

HighHigh

LowLow

ModerateModerate

ExtremeExtreme

HighHigh

Irene (99)

Irene (99)

Irene (99)

Irene (99)

Claudette (03)

Claudette (03)

Claudette (03)

Claudette (03)

HazardsHazardsHurricane CategoriesHurricane Categories

Isabel (03)

Floyd (99)

Floyd (99)Isabel (03)

Isabel (03)

Isabel (03)

Floyd (99)

Floyd (99)

Jeanne (04)

Jeanne (04)

Jeanne (04)

Jeanne (04)

Katrina (05)@

Katrina (05)@

Katrina (05)@

Katrina (05)@

Charley (04)

Charley (04)

Charley (04)

Charley (04)

Hugo (95)

Hugo (95)

Hugo (95)

Hugo (95)

Camille (69)

Camille (69)

Camille (69)

Camille (69)

Andrew (92)*

Andrew (92)*

Andrew (92)*

Andrew (92)*

IImmppaactct

IImmppaactct

LowLow

ModerateModerate

ExtremeExtreme

HighHighII

mmppaactct

IImmppaactct

Storm examples shown in hazard matrix based on

intensity at landfall

Storm examples shown in hazard matrix based on

intensity at landfall

*landfall in South Florida, @ landfall in Louisiana*landfall in South Florida, @ landfall in Louisiana

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Center Track in Cone?Center Track in Cone?

Note: NHC now provides the option of examining the Cone Note: NHC now provides the option of examining the Cone of Uncertainty with or without the center track (toggle)of Uncertainty with or without the center track (toggle)

Center track of Center track of Hurricane Hurricane Charley Charley “pointed” “pointed” toward Tampa toward Tampa Bay area -- Eye Bay area -- Eye made landfall at made landfall at Port Charlotte Port Charlotte (within the Cone (within the Cone of Uncertainty)of Uncertainty)

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64 kt Cumulative 0-120 h 18 UTC Thu 12 Aug

Hurricane Charley (2004)

Note that chances of hurricane conditions at Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte are both around 30%!

Created by Jamie Rhome, NHC

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Percent INCORRECTLY Percent INCORRECTLY Identifying Watches and WarningsIdentifying Watches and Warnings

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

PERCENT

HURRICANE WATCH

HURRICANE WARNING

HURRICANE WATCH 37 37 36 40 30 38

HURRICANEWARNING

60 65 57 60 59 60

LA AL MS FL PANFL

KEYSTOTAL

From From Post-Ivan Behavioral SurveyPost-Ivan Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin and Betty Hearn Morrow. Hugh Gladwin and Betty Hearn Morrow

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II. RISK ASSESSMENTII. RISK ASSESSMENT

A.A. Forecast UnderstandingForecast Understanding

1. Message Clarity1. Message Clarity

2. Characteristics of Receivers2. Characteristics of Receivers

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• LanguageLanguage• Physical abilitiesPhysical abilities

• SightSight• HearingHearing• CognitionCognition

• Education/TrainingEducation/Training• ExperienceExperience

2. Characteristics of Receivers2. Characteristics of Receivers

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II. RISK ASSESSMENTII. RISK ASSESSMENT

A.A. Forecast UnderstandingForecast Understanding

1. Message Clarity1. Message Clarity

2. Characteristics of 2. Characteristics of ReceiversReceivers

B. Vulnerability AssessmentB. Vulnerability Assessment

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Vulnerability Depends Vulnerability Depends Upon:Upon:

• Location/SiteLocation/Site

• StructureStructure

• Household StructureHousehold Structure

• Disabilities/Special NeedsDisabilities/Special Needs

• Social NetworksSocial Networks

• Effectiveness of Local Authorities Effectiveness of Local Authorities

and Institutionsand Institutions

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Stages to Appropriate Stages to Appropriate Weather-Related ResponseWeather-Related Response

I.I. FORECASTFORECAST

II.II. HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENTHAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT

III.III. RISK REDUCTIONRISK REDUCTION

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Ability to Reduce Risk Depends OnAbility to Reduce Risk Depends On::

1. Awareness of Alternatives & Consequences1. Awareness of Alternatives & Consequences

• Effectiveness of Local AuthoritiesEffectiveness of Local Authorities

2. Appropriate Decisions2. Appropriate Decisions

• Experience/Education Experience/Education

• Cognitive abilitiesCognitive abilities

• ConfirmationConfirmation

• CultureCulture

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Ability to Reduce Risk Depends On:Ability to Reduce Risk Depends On:

3. Resources to Respond Appropriately3. Resources to Respond Appropriately

• Safe ShelterSafe Shelter

• TransportationTransportation

• Economic ResourcesEconomic Resources

• Social Support SystemSocial Support System

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Evacuation of New Orleans for Katrina:Evacuation of New Orleans for Katrina:

Forecast Accurate Widely DisseminatedRisk Assessment Forecast Understood? Clear Message* Able Receivers Vulnerability Understood?*Risk Reduction Awareness of Alternatives/Consequences?* Appropriate Decision?

Resources to Carry It Through?* * Affected by Actions of Authorities* Affected by Actions of Authorities

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Dr. Betty Hearn MorrowDr. Betty Hearn MorrowProfessor Emeritus, SociologyProfessor Emeritus, SociologyFlorida International UniversityFlorida International Universitybetty@bmorrow.combetty@bmorrow.com