ST2004 Applied ProbabilityCool stuff with Random Numbers

SF MSISS also ST2005 JS - BA CS, CSLL; BAI

Erasmus?ST2004 Exam: 2 hour two group projects

Exam 85%; Project 15%ST2005 Exam: 3 hr half: half draws on ST2004

(including project)

ST2004 Understanding Probability

Main Text– Tijms, “Understanding Probability”, Cambridge 2007

• Part One Probability in Action– Chap 1 has 12 Probability Questions– Chaps 2 and 3 include detailed case studies

• Part Two Chap 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13• Projects Two mandatory (total 15%), one optional (30%)• Exam Standard formulae ,tables of random numbers

– Will focus on understanding– Pseudo-Excel formulation using supplied random– Applying formulae– Will not focus on algebraic manipulation

ST2004 Excel

• Will use EXCEL in lab, class– Alternative computing platforms fine• Pseudo-code fine in exam

– Syntax and functions• Templates & Help

• Excel and Maths– Cells A1, B3 variables X, Y– contain values, instances, realisations• Excel formula: put in B3 formula =2*A1^2+3• Math formula: Y = 2X2+ 3

ST2004 - House Rules• Lectures 9:00 Mon, Tues– Mon - ‘Interesting stuff’– Tues - how to do it– Handouts; fuller notes in ‘get’ folder; also last year

• Lab 17:00 Tues, first 6 weeks• Random roll call– will select N from class randomly

• Timekeeping– Late sign-up sheet– “Please think twice about interrupting class”

ST2004

Other texts - alternative mathematicsSwift, L: Mathematics and Statistics for Business,

Management and Finance, MacMillan 1997 (Part C)

Dekker, Kraaikamp, Lopuhaa, Meester: A Modern Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Springer,2005

Stirzaker, D: Probability and Random Variables: a beginner’s guide, Cambridge 2005

Compulsory Projects

Groups of 3 or 4Self allocation fine; else random allocation

1. Dice 5%1. Due 15th November - after reading week2. Marks approx 2 weeks

2. League Tables 10%1. Due 17th Jan – after term break2. Marks approx 4 weeks

Compulsory Projects• Part 1– Conduct specified experiments on a ‘system’

• using computer generated random numbers

– Summarise results• hence evaluate ‘system’• show that you understand use of random numbers

• Part 2– Investigate ‘something’ in some depth

• Using random numbers

Marking of projects: 75% for ‘getting it right’; 25% for skill/flair

Optional Extra Project NEW

• Substantial individual project– Topic self nominated

• In consultation• Not directly connected to ‘Part 2’

– Sign-up Week 4; Submit draft Week 10; Submit 31 Jan 2012– Optional Project Mark 30%

• Final Mark

= max(100% reg mark; (70% reg mark + Opt Proj) )reg mark = (Exam 85%; Compulsory Projects 15%)