Spending round 2013:The case for investment in transport

isabel.dedring@london.gov.ukMayor’s Office, May 2013

Key messages

• London is the productive heart of the UK economy, supporting jobs and growth across the UK

• London’s population growing faster than previously thought

• Long-term stable funding more efficient/effective for whole supply chain

• Investment is not just about transport – it’s about homes, regen, etc

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Offer to Government:• Spade-ready road and rail projects• Delivering clear short-medium term benefits• Ongoing efficiencies programme• Over medium term covering own operating costs• Vocal support from business• Capitalising (not cutting) our investment

Relative productivity

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

North East

North West

Yorkshire

East Midlands

West Midlands

East

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

Percentage difference from UK average, 2011 (source: ONS)

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UK jobs and growth

• 40,000 jobs supported in supply chain outside London in 2011/12

• 64 per cent of our spend went to suppliers outside London

• 55,000 will work on Crossrail

• 3,500 apprentices, 3,400 long-term unemployed into work

Presenter

Presentation Notes

BLUE LINE – POPULATION PREDICTION AS PER LONDON PLAN (2011) RED LINE – UPDATED / MOST RECENT POPULATION PREDICTIONS IN 2012 (INCLUDES ANALYSIS BASED ON CENSUS DATA) SHOWS ADDITIONAL 1M PEOPLE WITHIN 10 YEARS RATHER THAN 20 YEARS

Demand up 29% by 2031

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Replace with projected growth in demand

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Inde

x: 2

001

= 10

0

MTS forecast Trips (forecast) Trips

2.1m extra publictransport trips a day

Tube crowding today

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Station crowding 2031

5

9

30% reliability improvement

Excess journey time, minutes (measure of delays)

Train kms operated (millions)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Corridor reliability

Presenter

Presentation Notes

“SWEATING THE ASSETS” – GETTING MORE FROM THE EXISTING NETWORK

Our investment plan: A pipeline of spade-ready projects for growth

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Network Under way/ready to start Ready to start within 3-5 years

Tube •Northern line upgrade•Sub-surface line upgrade•Tube Reliability plan•Victoria, Tottenham Court Road, Bond Street, Paddington and Vauxhall upgrades•Bank (Waterloo & City line)•Northern Line Extension

•Extra Jubilee line trains•36 trains-per-hour on the Jubilee and Victoria lines•Bakerloo/Piccadilly line upgrade•Bank and Elephant & Castle station upgrades•Northern line upgrade 2•Croxley Rail Link

Roads •Structures and Tunnels Investment Programme•Removing roads pinch points•SCOOT traffic signal control•Old Street roundabout, Elephant & Castle,Euston Road growth schemes•Lewisham Gateway, Tottenham Hale, Streatham High Road, Malden Rushett, Olympic Park access, A1 Mill Hill Cross and Rotherhitheroundabout improvement projects•Better Junctions Programme

•New Silvertown tunnel•Vauxhall Cross, King’s Cross, Brent Cross, White City, Earls Court, Wandsworth, Waterloo, Victoria, Barking Riverside and A23 Fivewaysgrowth schemes•Tower Hill, Archway, Seven Sisters Road/St Anne’s Road, Highbury Corner, A23 PurleyCross, Stoke Newington and Gallows Corner improvement projects

Rail •Crossrail•Overground capacity expansion•Docklands Light Railway north double-tracking•Tram platform works and tram procurement

Bus •New Bus for London•Bus stop and station renewal

•Bus transit schemes

Crossrail 2 under construction to 2033

Bakerloo line extension to south east London in 2030s

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Roads Task Force

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• 1 slide with Embankment pic from cover of cycling strategy

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Unlocking growth

Waterloo IMAX Croydon Fiveways Old Street Roundabout

Vauxhall / Nine Elms Tottenham Hale Elephant and CastleElephant & Castle

Capital investment

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Efficiencies• £9.8b savings to 2017/18

• £3.3b to date

• Further £5b by 2021/22

• Roughly 15% reduction in total budget

• Includes plan to cover operating costs from revenue by 2021/22

• Examples

• £1.1bn more in commercial revenue by 2021/22

• Signalling upgrade costs cut by 66% per km

• 2,300 fewer posts so far

• Road re-surfacing costs down 40%20

Savings secured: £9.8bn Share

Support Services efficiencies 37%

Investment programme 10%

Tube maintenance 9%

Rail and Underground operations

8%

Bus network and operations 10%

Other Surface Transport operations

7%

Commercial development 3%

Long-term, stablefunding essential

• London needs the right level of funding and certainty over time

• Investment has been erratic, adding inefficiency and leaving infrastructure unmodernised

• Stop/start will add 15% to our costs

• Steady, sustainable investment:

• Best deals from suppliers

• Boosts business confidence in the UK and internationally

• Allows suppliers to invest in jobs and apprentices

£0.0bn

£1.0bn

£2.0bn

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21

£0.0bn

£1.0bn

£2.0bn

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21

Our net operating costs

Our capital plan

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Net operating costs

£0.0bn

£1.0bn

£2.0bn

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21

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UK ‘top 40’

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Highways Agency programme in construction – pre-2010

Spending Review

Highways Agency managed motorways programme –Spending Review projects

8 Highways Agency trunk road improvements programme –

2010 Spending Review projects

Highways Agency – Autumn Statement 2011/2012 package

Alternative approaches to resolving issues along the A14

corridor

New Lower Thames crossing

Mersey Gateway Bridge

Local transport projects – funded at or before Spending Review

2010

Local authority major transport schemes – development pool

projects

Crossrail

Thameslink

Rail infrastructure and rolling stock enhancement

East Coast Main Line

Rail electrification programme (including Great Western

Electrification)

King’s Cross station improvements Reading upgrade programme

High Speed Two

Northern rail connectivity (Liverpool-Newcastle including

Northern Hub)

Intercity Express Programme

London Underground investment programme

Northern Line Extension to Battersea

Gatwick capital investment programme

Heathrow capital investment programme

Ports – container terminal projects

Ports – renewable energy projects

Growing Places Fund

Regional Growth Fund (RGF)

Electricity generation – new nuclear investment

Carbon Capture and Storage investment

Electricity generation – gas investment (CCGT)

Electricity generation – biomass investment

Electricity generation – wind energy investment

Electricity and gas transmission and distribution investment

Smart meters

4G mobile auction and roll-out

Rural mobile coverage (Mobile Infrastructure Project)

Fixed broadband investment –private and public

Urban broadband fund – super connected cities

16 Thames Tideway Tunnel

Flood and coastal erosion risk management programme

(including Thames Estuary 2100)

TfL’s investment programme

Dependent upon TfL’s investment programme

London v Paris

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London v Paris

• French Prime Minister Ayraut announced a funding package for programme upgrades, extensions and new lines

• The announcement means funding for the ongoing Paris investment programme –Nouveau Grand Paris – is secure until 2030

• The total value of the funding package is around €30bn. €12bn has been earmarked for the modernisation of existing infrastructure

• It is estimated the programme will create one million new jobs over the next 15 years

• Businesses making decisions about where to invest in western Europe can now see a series of funded infrastructure improvements in the pipeline for Paris over the next 17 years

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London v Paris

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Nouveau Grand London?

• Northern Line Extension• Crossrail 2• Silvertown Tunnel• Bakerloo Line and Tramlink extensions• Lea Valley 4 tracking and Barking Riverside• More significant investment in road infrastructure eg tunnelisation

• Plus…?

Unlocking growth (2)

Northern Line ExtensionThe Vauxhall, Nine Elms and Battersea Opportunity area:

• 17,000 new jobs

• 7,000 new homes

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Spending round 2013:The case for investment in transport

isabel.dedring@london.gov.ukMayor’s Office, May 2013