Speech - Trieste.2

7/29/2019 Speech - Trieste.2

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Creating EffectivePublic Policy for

Managing AdvancedNanotechnology

Mike Treder, Executive Director

Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

February 10, 2005 n Expert Group Meeting on Nanotechnology n Trieste,


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2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Introduction

From the Aide-Mmoire prepared for this

Expert Group Meeting:

in this moment there is no global effort topromote awareness of the potential applicationsofnanotechnology for development, to createnew regulatory regimes (or build upon existingones) for managing nanotechnologys associated

risks and for promoting global public goods, toprovide a platform for constructive dialogueamong all stakeholders including representativesfrom government, industry, academia and local

populations.

My presentation will address this critical lack

and will propose some ameliorating strategies.


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Overview

Consumer Products of Nanotechnology

The future could hold more than just better tennis balls

Analysis of Molecular Manufacturing

Capabilities, benefits, and risks

Three Systems of Action

Different principles for different problems

Thirty Essential Studies

Unfortunately, more questions than answers

NanoFora

Encompassing a range of stakeholders


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Promises of Progress

Defeat poverty

End starvation and disease

Open up outer space

Expand human capacities

Lengthen our lifespans


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and Unprecedented Risks

Environmental and health dangers

Massive job displacement

Economic and social disruption

Constant intrusive surveillance

Unstable arms race


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This is Nanotechnology?

(According to Forbes)

High-Performance Ski Wax

Breathable Waterproof Ski Jacket

High-Tech Tennis Rackets And Balls

Deep-Penetrating Skin Cream

Wrinkle-Resistant, Stain-Repellent Threads


7/512005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Nanotechnologycould be

Not just new products a new means of

production

Manufacturing systems that make more

manufacturing systems exponential proliferation

Vastly accelerated product improvement cheap

rapid prototyping

Affecting all industries and economic sectors

general-purpose technology

Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligiblecapital cost economic discontinuity

Impacts crossing borders global transformation



The Feynman Vision

I want to build a billion tiny factories,

models of each other, which are

manufacturing simultaneously.

Nobel prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman
http://www.foresight.org/lizardfire/MoleMillTour0175.jpg



A Billion Tiny Factories

Inner Workings of a Desktop NanofactoryCourtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios (3D Animation, Game Development)



The Nanofactory

Integrate large numbers of nanoscale chemical fabrication units

Combine nanoscale pieces into large-scale products

General-purpose manufacturing in a tabletop format

Extremely advanced products with compact functionality

Produce its own weight in hours; produce copies of itself

Design of a Primitive Nanofactory

By Chris Phoenix

Director of Research, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

http://www.jetpress.org/volume13/Nanofactory.htm
http://www.jetpress.org/volume13/Nanofactory.htmhttp://www.jetpress.org/volume13/Nanofactory.htm



Artist's Conception of a Desktop NanofactoryCourtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios (3D Animation, Game Development)

The Nanofactory
http://www.foresight.org/lizardfire/ExternalView010.jpg



Developing a Nanofactory

Three milestones:1 Basic molecular manufacturing: The precise formation

of molecular structures under direct mechanical control.

2 Exponential molecular manufacturing: The use of

nanoscale molecular manufacturing tools to build more ofthemselves, making it possible to produce large quantities

of product.

3 Integrated molecular manufacturing: The integration of

tools into massively parallel structures, nanofactories,

that can combine their outputs into large products .



Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler

Jolt to the System

The ability to build

anything we can design,

by manipulating

molecules under direct

computer control, will

be ajolt to the system.



The ability to build

anything we can design,

by manipulating

molecules under direct

computer control, will

be ajolt to the system.

A transformative, disruptive, discontinuousjolt to

ecological, economic, political, and social systems

on a local, national, and global scale.

Artist's Conception of a Desktop NanofactoryCourtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios (3D Animation, Game Development)

Jolt to the System
http://www.foresight.org/lizardfire/ExternalView228.jpg



The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the

Industrial Revolutions of the last two centuries but

with all that change compressed intojust a few years.

Change is Coming



Societal Implications

Rapid design, prototype, refinement

Local manufacturing from local materials

High-performance products

Self-contained, automated factories Exponential manufacturing

Factories become as cheap as any productProducts become as cheap as raw materials(as cheap to build, not necessarily to buy)


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Exponential Doubling

DAY NANOFACTORIES

1 1

3 2

5 4

7 8

9 16

11 32

13 64

15 128

17 25619 512

21 1,024 Thousand

Length of Time for Nanofactory ProliferationBased on conservative estimate of two-days doubling time


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Exponential Doubling

DAY NANOFACTORIES

21 1,024 Thousand

25 4,096

29 16,38433 65,536

37 262,144

41 1,048,576 Million

45 4,194,304

49 16,777,216

53 67,108,864

57 268,435,456

61 1,073,741,824 Billion

Length of Time for Nanofactory ProliferationBased on conservative estimate of two-days doubling time


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Benefits+Risks

An automated, self-contained factory could provide...


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Benefits+Risks


Lifesaving medical

robots orUntraceable weapons of

mass destruction


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Benefits+Risks


Lifesaving medical


mass destruction

Networked computers foreveryone in the world or

Networked cameras sogovernments can watch

our every move


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Benefits+Risks


Lifesaving medical


mass destruction



our every move

Trillions of dollars of

abundance orA vicious scramble to

own everything


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Benefits+Risks


Lifesaving medical


mass destruction



our every move


abundance orA vicious scramble to

own everything

Rapid invention of

wondrous products orWeapons development fast enough

to destabilize any arms race


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Benefits+Risks


Lifesaving medical

robotsAND

Untraceable weapons of

mass destruction

Networked computers foreveryone in the world

ANDNetworked cameras sogovernments can watch

our every move


abundanceAND

A vicious scramble to

own everything

Rapid invention of

wondrous productsAND

Weapons development fast enough

to destabilize any arms race


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Never before has the world faced

such a tremendous opportunity

Earth on the Brink


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and never before

have the risks

been so great.

Earth on the Brink

Never before has the world faced

such a tremendous opportunity


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Overview


The future holds more than just better tennis balls


Capabilities, benefits, and risks

Three Systems of Action Different principles for different problems


Unfortunately, more questions than answers

NanoFora

Encompassing a range of stakeholders


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Systems of Action

"Guardian" Principles

Suitable forzero-sum ornegative-sum situations

Deceive for the sake of the task Respect hierarchy

Take vengeance Be exclusive

Shun trading Dispense largesse

Exert prowess Be ostentatious

Be fatalistic Make rich use of leisure

Be obedient and disciplined Show fortitude

Adhere to tradition Treasure honor


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Systems of Action

"Commercial" Principles

Suitable forpositive-sum situations

Be honest Collaborate easily with strangers

Be thrifty Use initiative and enterprise

Compete Be industrious

Respect contracts Invest for productive purposes

Shun force Be optimistic

Promote comfort and convenience Be efficient

Be open to inventiveness Come to voluntary agreements


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Forming Public Policy

Guardian Principles Commercial Principles

To solve problems related to the

minimizing of harm (theft,

invasion)

To solve problems related to

maximizing wealth (trade,

invention)

Appropriate forgovernments

and police forces, organizations

that defend laws and land

Appropriate forbusiness and

trade, which seek to increase

value to all parties involved

From Systems of Survival, by Jane Jacobs


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Systems of Action

GuardianPrinciples

CommercialPrinciples

? ? ?

Zero-sum or negative-sum

situations

Positive-sum situations Unlimited-sum

situations

GOAL: Maintain andprotect status quo

GOAL: Improve resourceuse dynamically

Appropriate for

governments and police

forces, organizations that

defend laws and land

Appropriate for business

and trade, which seek to

increase value to all

parties involved


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Systems of Action

GuardianPrinciples

CommercialPrinciples

InformationPrinciples

Zero-sum or negative-sum

situations

Positive-sum situations Unlimited-sum situations

GOAL: Maintain andprotect status quo

GOAL: Improve resourceuse dynamically

GOAL: Spread innovationgenerously

Appropriate for

governments and police

forces, organizations that

defend laws and land

Appropriate for business

and trade, which seek to

increase value to all

parties involved

Appropriate for the

production and copying of

freely shared information

(Creative Commons, OpenSource, Free Software)


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Problems Ahead

Information Principles now appliednot just to information, but to

physical products

Substantial new security (Guardian)issues

Massively disruptive economic

(Commercial) impacts


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Worldwide Network

Molecular ManufacturingInfrastructure

Guardians Regulate usage

Commerce Charge tolls

InformationGroups Enhance infrastructure & products


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Worldwide Network

Molecular ManufacturingInfrastructure

Guardians Regulate usage

Commerce Charge tolls

InformationGroups Enhance infrastructure & products

(See www.crnano.org/systems.htm for more information)


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- Intellectual property

violations

- Manufacture of

dangerous products

- Makes black market

inevitable

- Intellectual property

violations

- Manufacture of

dangerous products

- Removes incentive for

black market

- Prevents alleviation of

human suffering

- Hinders creation ofprosperity

- Makes black market

inevitable

- Allows alleviation of

human suffering

- Fosters creation ofunprecedented prosperity

- Reduces incentive for

black market

Nanofactory Control Options

TE

C

H

N

ICA

L

R

ES

TR

IC

TION

S

DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS

Loose

Loose

Tight

Tight


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CRNs Proposal

1. Create a Molecular ManufacturingInfrastructure

Worldwide network ofrestricted nanofactories

Maximize benefits

Minimize risks


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CRNs Proposal

2. Design Decision-Making StructureIn Advance

Collaborative international administrative body

Must have global scope

Manage conflict

Balance interests of all three action groups


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What is Needed Now

Awarenessof the issues

Technical research

Policy research

New networks

Thi E i l S di


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U d Q ti


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Unanswered Questions

Who will own the technology for molecular manufacturing?

Will it be heavily restricted, or widely available?

What will it do to the gap between rich and poor?

What will be the impact of rapid advances in medical

research, diagnosis, and treatment?

How can dangerous weapons be controlled, and perilous

arms races be prevented?

What happens to privacy when powerful surveillance

devices are smaller than a mosquito, just as mobile, and so

cheap that they are virtually everywhere?

Thi t E ti l St di


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Section 1: Technical and Foundational

Section 2: Capabilities of Molecular

Manufacturing Technologies

Section 3: Development of MolecularManufacturing Technologies

Section 4: Product Performance

Section 5: Policies and Policymaking


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A collaborative project to study the facts and

implications of advanced nanotechnology

a website for researchers worldwide to work together,

helping to build an understanding of the technologies,their effects, and what to do about them.

www.Wise-Nano.org

P i S l ti


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The challenges of nanotechnology will

have to be addressed by a diverse

collection of people and organizations.

No single approach will solve all problems

or address all needs.

Issues of multiple stakeholders and world

regions (North-South) must be represented.

PreparingSolutions

P i S l ti


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The only answer is a collective answer,

and that will demand an unprecedented

collaboration of leaders in science,

technology, business, government, andNGOs.

It will require participation from people of

many nations, cultures, languages, andbelief systems.

PreparingSolutions

N F


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NanoFora

Nanotechnology will affect a broad range of

stakeholders

Individual and group goals are diverse and

possibly incompatible

Bad policies may multiply rather than cancel badpolicy effects

Evaluate and compare policy options from multiple

stakeholder group perspectives

Create comprehensive and stable plans to

maximize benefits and minimize risks

N F P j t St t


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METAMediation

Reporting

OVERVIEWValues

System

Technology

STAKEHOLDERS

Social

Justice

Surveillance

& Privacy

Arms Control

& Geopolitics

Sustainable

Development

Medical Ethics

& Research

Intellectual

Property

Knowledge

Managemen

t

EcologicalRemediation

Policing &Criminology

Business

& Trade

NanoForaProjectStructure

NanoFora


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NanoFora

Sound and effective decision-makingfor nanotechnology public policy

A stable structure for finding policy

options that encompasses a range of

stakeholders and multiple systems of

action

S


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Summary


A revolution in manufacturing is coming


Wonderful benefits and severe risks

Three Systems of Action Different principles for different problems


Many more questions than answers

NanoFora

A project to engage stakeholder participation

B ildi B id


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We must develop common understanding,

create lines of communication, and build a

stable structure to bridge the cliffs and

pass safely through the transition into the

nano era.

Building Bridges


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www.CRNano.org

Speech - Trieste.2

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