Southern Cone Natural Gas Dynamics - INSTITUTE OF THE … · 2019. 12. 6. · SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL...
Transcript of Southern Cone Natural Gas Dynamics - INSTITUTE OF THE … · 2019. 12. 6. · SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL...
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Content
• Brief institutional presentation of GELA
• The reality and dynamics of the natural gas
markets in the Southern Cone
• Final comments
CONTENT
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Offices - GELA
THE COMPANY
GAS ENERGY LATIN AMERICA (GELA)is an energy consulting company
(natural gas, oil, LPG, power,
renewables and petrochemical)
operating throughout Latin America
and the Caribbean since 2008.
Technical Offices:
Bolivia, Peru and Venezuela: Servicing
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,
Ecuador, Mexico, Uruguay and other
countries in Latin America and the
Caribbean.
Senior Partners
In each country.
Specialized Senior Consultants:
All energy sectors.
Oficinas
Oficinas Principales y Técnicas
Headquarters – Technical team
Montevideo
Santa Cruz de la Sierra
Lima
Buenos Aires
Caracas
Quito
Bogota
Santiago
Mexico DF
San Pablo
Central America & The Caribbean
Permanent Offices
Associated Office
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GELA's types of Clients
CLIENT TYPES
EnergyE&P Companies
Transport and Distributors
Institutions & Associations
Industry & Services
Financial Institutions
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Content
• Brief institutional presentation of GELA
• The reality and dynamics of the natural gas
markets in the Southern Cone
• Final comments
CONTENT
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Integrated market (Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Bolivia
and Chile)
Source: Elaboration by GELA, 2019
Gas on gas competition
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
LNG Regasification
LNG Liquefaction
Vaca Muerta (Argentina)
Pre salt (Brazil)
Subandean (Bolivia)
LEGEND
LNG
LNG
Pr
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Evolution of LNG price indicators
1) Long-term LNG contracts of USA. FOB Price, the formula is 1,15% HH + 1,1 USD / MMBTU
Source: Global Gas and LNG Outlook, July 2019
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
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LNG prices dynamics according to seasonality
Winter higher demand and higher prices of LNG and vice versaSource: IRI, 2019
WINTERSUMMER
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
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Brazil - Natural gas demand evolution
Source: Mines and Energy Ministry; ABEGAS, August 2019
NOTE: Only data available until August 2019
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
Demand falls: slower growth in the economy
16%
33%
51%
August
2019:
Demand falls (2017-2019): 17%
Electric generationIndustrial Others (Automotive, residential, commercial, co-generation, CNG)
MM
cm
d
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Brazil – Natural gas supply evolution
* Gross National Supply.
** Gross and net supply difference
NOTA: Reinjection (Gross National Supply) for liquid recovery and transport consumption on imports
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
MM
cm
d
National-Offshore National-Onshore
Argentina’s import LNG’s import
Bolivia’s import
Net national supply
**
Source: Mines and Energy Ministry; ABEGAS, August 2019
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Brazil – LNG new projects
Source: EPE, 2019.
FSRU terminals (In construction and under study)
# Name LocationCapacity
(MMmcd)Operation
date
1 Sergipe (In construction) Sergipe 14 2020
2 Açu (In construction)Norte Río de
Janeiro21 2021
3 Comgás (under study) Sao Paulo 14 2020
4Sao Francisco del Sur (under
study)Santa
Catarina15 2021
August, 27th, 2019
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
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Pre salt supply – Actual and new projected tiers
Source: MINEM, 2019.
Conditioning and Collection
Facilities (Offshore)
Route 1: 10 MMcmd (Built)
Route 2: 16 MMcmd (Built)
Route 3: 18 MMcmd
(Construction 2021)
Routes under study(Investment. 1500 MM$US)
Route 4: 10 a 15 MMcmd ~275 Km
Route 5: 10 a 15 MMcmd ~275 Km
Route 6: 10 a 15 MMcmd ~120 Km
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
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Argentina – Natural gas demand evolution
Source: Energy Secretary; Enargas, 2019NOTE: Only data available until July 2019
July
2019:July
2018:
29%
33%
19%
19%
36%
19%
18%
26%
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
MM
cm
d
Others (Commercial, vehicular, export) Industrial EG Residential
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Argentina – Natural gas supply
** Gross and net supply difference
NOTA: Only data available until July 2019
* Gross National Supply
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
Source: Energy Secretary; Enargas, 2019
**
Winter Winter Winter Winter
National
supplyBolivia’s import Chile’s import LNG’s import Net national supply
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Argentina – Unconventional production
Source: : GELA based in the analysis of the Energy Secretary, 2019.
MM
mcd
As of July, unconventional reservoirs represent 44% of the total gas supply.
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
MM
cm
d
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Argentina – Vaca Muerta – Companies and investment
announcements
Vaca Muerta’s Surface by company
Sourc
e:
MIN
EM
; N
euquén N
atu
ral
reso
urc
es;
Wood M
ackenzi
e,
2019
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
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Infrastructure projects – Collection pipelines
Source: Ministry of Energy, GELA’s Analysis, 2019
GNEA
Gto. Norte
Gto. CentroOeste
Gto. Neuba I
Gto. Neuba 2
Gto. SanMartín
Gto. Cordillerano
G. Norandino.
G. Atacama
Gto. Gasandes
Gto. Pacifico
Gto. CP
G. P Dungenes
G. Bandurrias
G. Colon-P
G. CdS
G. Aldea Brasileña
Gto. Litoral
TGNTGSExportaciónGto LitoralGNEA
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3
1
1 "Central or Litoral " new pipeline
(Section 1: Tratayen – Salliqueló)
Bid postponed twice
Not until 2023/24
2 "Central or Litoral " new pipeline
(Section 2: Salliqueló – San Nicolas)
Not until 2024/25
3 Central west – North pipeline interconection
and North pipeline reversion
Not until 2025
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
Chile exports
LNG exports
Future Brazil exports
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Argentina - Gas supply auction for distributors with
competitive prices of Vaca Muerta
Today we already have competitive prices
with Vaca Muerta’s production
Source: Megsa; GELA, 2019
Prices before PIST* (in spanish)
* Entrance Point to the Transportation System
45,652,000
200,000 1,906,000
SPOT* operationsVolume (cm)
Neuquén Santa Cruz Tierra de Fuego
3.75
3.84
3.71
NEUQUÉN SANTA CRUZ TIERRA DE FUEGO
Average prices* (USD/MMBtu)
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
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35,5137,25 38,75
33,08
41,1744,74
50,95
57,5059,22 59,22 59,36
56,1252,80
42,15
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MM
mcd
Total Oferta Demanda Interna Brasil Argentina Total Demanda
Bolivia: Natural gas supply - demand balance
Source: YPFB, Minem Argentina, Brazil & GELA, Sep 2019.
Less demand of
export marketsMore exports
Production fall
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
MM
cm
d
Total
supply Internal demand Brazil ArgTotal
demand
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Hydrocarbon potential in Bolivia
100 Áreas Reservadas a
favor de YPFB
16Bajo Contrato Exploración
(CSP)
4 Negociación de Contrato
15 Convenios de
Estudios
7 Áreas en
Operación por YPFB
58Áreas en Estudios
YPFB
• Portfolio with potential short-
term resources: 31 TCF
Potential Reserves
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
Prospects in execution
Prospects
Plays potential resources
(Yet to find)
Leads
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Exploratory activity September 2019
Source: GELA, YPFB, MHE, Sep 2019.
ÑANCAHUAZU-X1ÑCZ-X1
TOTAL BOLIVIE S.A.14/02/2019 Acondicionando
OH 3601 m
1,5TCF (YTF) PS 20%
JAGUAR-X6JGR-X6
SHELL BOLIVIA29/05/2018, Actividad para ST,
(5381 m)
4 TCF (YTF) PS 15%
BOICOBO-X1BCS-X1
REPSOL E&P BOLIVIA05/10/2019
perforando (43m)
1 TCF (YTF) PS 15%
YARARA-X1YRA-X1
YPFB CORP14/09/2019
Perforando 2315m.
0,2 TCF (YTF) PS 20%
Exploratory wells
Natural gas
SIPOTINDI-X1SIP-X1ST
YPFB Corp.22/08/2018 Perforando 4330 m
1 TCF (YTF) PS 15%
ÑANCAHUAZU-X1ÑCZ-X1
TOTAL BOLIVIE S.A.14/02/2019 Acondicionando
OH 3601 m
1,5TCF (YTF) PS 20%
JAGUAR-X6JGR-X6
SHELL BOLIVIA29/05/2018, Actividad para ST,
(5381 m)
4 TCF (YTF) PS 15%
AGUARAGUE CENTRO-X1DAGC-X1D
YPFB CHACO08/08/2019 Perforando 2296
1 TCF (YTF) PS 20%
BOICOBO-X1BCS-X1
REPSOL E&P BOLIVIA05/10/2019
perforando (43m)
1 TCF (YTF) PS 15%
YARARA-X1YRA-X1
YPFB CORP14/09/2019
Perforando 2315m.
0,2 TCF (YTF) PS 20%
CARANDA X1005
Petrobras .15/01/2018
Planificando WO
0,4 TCF (YTF) PS 80%
YTF : Yield to find
PS : Exit rate
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
1.76 TCF
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Exploratory Activity 2020 - 2022
Source: GELA, Sep 2019.
Operator Contract area Drilling Year Well
REPSOL E&P
BOLIVIA S.A
Caipipendi (ZT)II TRIM/2020 BOYUY-X3* ✔ (0,67 TCF)
I TRIM/2020 MARGARITA -X1001* ✔ (0,67 TCF)
Iñiguazu (ZT) I TRIM/2020 IÑIGUAZU-X5 *✔ (1,12 TCF)
PETROBRAS BOLIVIA S.A. San Telmo Norte (ZT) IV TRIM /2019 DOMO OSO-X1* ✔ (0,21 TCF)
SHELL BOLIVIA S.S Huacareta (ZNT) II TRIM/2020 YAPUCAITI X1* ✔ (0,95 TCF)
TOTAL BOLIVIE S.A. Azero (ZNT) I TRIM/2021 ILLIMCHUPA-X1* ✔ (2,6 TCF)
YPF S.A. Charagua(ZT) II TRIM/2020 CHARAGUA-X1* ✔ (2 TCF)
Private operators
Operator Contract area Drilling Year Well
YPFB ANDINA S.A. CAROHUAICHO 8B 2020 EDA-X1 ?? 0,5 TCF. PS 18%
YPFB ANDINA S.A. CAROHUAICHO 8D 2021 SRR-X3 ✔ 1 TCF. PS 20%YPFB CHACOS.A. ÁREAS VARIAS 2020 LMS-X13D ✔ 0,5 TCF. PS 20%YPFB CHACOS.A. CAROHUAUCHO 8C 2020 LHS-X2 ?? 0,5 TCF. PS 15%
YPFB CHACOS.A. CAROHUAUCHO 8A 2020 OPB-X1 ?? 0,5 TCF. PS 10%
YPFB CHACOS.A. ITACARAY 2020 ITY-X1 ?? 1,3 TCF. PS 15%
YPFB CHACOS.A. CHIMORE Y OTROS 2020 SMG-X2ST 0 ,5 TCF. PS 20%
YPFB CHACOS.A. ASTILLERO 2020 AST-X1 ✔ 2 TCF. PS 27%YPFB IÑAU 2021 IÑAU-X3 ?? 1 TCF. PS 15%
YPFB SAUCE MAYU 2022 SAUCE MAYU-X1 ?? 0,5TCF. PS 15%
YPFB INGRE 2021 INGRE-X3 ?? 1,5TCF. PS 15%
YPFB and Subsidiaries
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
1.67 TCF
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Natural gas price markers – Gas on gas competition
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS
12,4
9
17,1
9
10,6
4
13,7
1
16,3
8
16,2
5
16,9
0
16,1
0
8,4
1
7,4
8 8,7
9
11,2
1
9,7
8
9,0
8
9,2
3
8,5
8
8,8
5
8,3
9
7,8
0
7,9
8
8,2
9
8,6
0
8,9
1
9,7
8
9,9
9 11,0
0
10,7
4
10,8
3
11,4
4
12,0
8
11,7
2
12,2
5
11,7
5
12,1
3
12,2
2
9,8
3
8,5
5
8,8
7
9,4
9
10,0
4
11,0
3
10,5
0
9,4
4
9,9
0
9,4
7
9,8
4
9,3
2
9,7
5
9,7
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
$U
S/M
MBTU
WTI Argentina Brasil
Before: gas prices
were calculated with
these formulas
NOW: these formulas will no longer be valid, now price marker are related to Henry Hub
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Content
• Brief institutional presentation of GELA
• The reality and dynamics of the natural gas
markets in the Southern Cone
• Final comments
CONTENT
25
Final comments
• LNG is arriving to the Sothern Cone and will continue arriving and is
quite competitive
• Bolivia natural gas production is declining but there is current
exploration in known region with infrastructure
• Vaca Muerta (Argentina) and Presalt (Brazil) have initiated natural gas
production with competitive costs
• There is existing pipeline and LNG infrastructure that could be used
• Pricing more commercial than political and gas on gas competition
• Prices with Henry Hub marker and not oil linked
SOUTHERN CONE NATURAL GAS DYNAMICS