Some preliminaries Global state of affairs Post-2015 Agenda
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1. Some preliminaries
2. Global state of affairs
3. Post-2015 Agenda
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1. Poverty & hunger2. Primary education3. Gender equality4. Child mortality5. Maternal health6. HIV/Aids, malaria & TB7. Environment8. Global partnership
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1. Poverty & hunger -50%2. Primary education full3. Gender equality full4. Child mortality -66%5. Maternal health -75%6. HIV/Aids, malaria & TB7. Environment -50%8. Global partnership
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103132
166
223
79705948
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
GlobalU5MR
Global NER
2015
100
34
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1. MDGs are collective targets, based on global trends of 1970s & 1980s
2. They are hardest to achieve for countries with low initial HD
3. They represent ends, not means.
Good servants, bad masters
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Global state of affairs
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Underweight Primary SchoolEnrolment
% Girls Child Mortality Measles Deliveries
1990 2010
All developing countries
-11
+10 +10
-3.5
+10
+13
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Gender Parity
Child malnutrition
Child mortality
Primary education
Maternal health
Achieved To be Achieved1990 2010 2015
Global MDG scorecard (as of 2010)
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Underweight Primary SchoolEnrolment
% Girls Child Mortality Measles Deliveries
1990 2010
Sub-Saharan Africa
-7 (-11)
+23 (+10)
+9 (+10)
-5.3 (-3.5)
+3 (+10)
+19 (+13)
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“We seek to confirm, not to question, our ideas”
“African poverty and stagnation is the greatest
tragedy of our time.” Blair Commission for Africa, 2005
Don't Believe Everything You ThinkThe 6 Basic Mistakes We Make in Thinking
Thomas Kida, 2006
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“They use statistics as drunken men use lamp posts – for support rather
than for illumination.”
“The world has met some important targets–ahead of the deadline.”
UN, 2012
Andrew Lang Scottish poet
1844-1912
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MDG 8: Global Partnership
1. Debt relief
2. ODA
3. Trade policy & patent laws
Passing grade
Retake exam
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Official development assistance
2002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 20120.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
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MDG 8: Global Partnership
1. Debt relief
2. ODA
3. Trade policy & patent laws
Passing grade
Retake exam
Failing grade
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MDG 8: Global Partnership
1. Debt relief
2. ODA
3. Trade policy & patent laws
Passing grade
Retake exam
Failing grade
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www.cartoonmovement.com
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Progress has continued But it is slowing down
Much of it bypasses the poor; inequalities
Storyline since 1990
Is it inequality, stupid?
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0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
Inequality in OECD countriesGini coefficients for late 1980s to late 2000s
Up: 17 countriesSame: 3 countriesDown: 2 countries
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• High inequalities have a price – slower growth, more instability, less efficiency.
• They hurt everyone, also those at top.• The way the economic pie is cut has a
bearing on its size.• What matters is not only how affluent
a country is but also how equal it is. There is such thing as ‘too much
inequality’.
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• Adam Smith/Karl Marx
What did philosophers say about inequality?
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Does the free market corrode moral character?
1. Categorical ‘No’• Rick Santorum – No. • Qinglian He – No.• Jadish Bagwati – To the contrary.• Ayaan Hirsi Ali – Not at all.
2. Nuanced ‘No’• Tyler Cowen – No, on balance.• Michael Novak – No! And, well, yes.• Garry Kasparov – Yes, but…• Bernard-Henri Levy – Certainly. Or does it?
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3. ‘It depends’• John Gray – It depends.• John Bogle – It all depends.
4. ‘Yes’• Kay Hymowitz – Yes, too often.• Michael Walzer – Of course it does.• Robert Reich – We’d better not know.
www.templeton.org/markets
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“To feel for others and little for ourselves, to restrain our selfishness and exercise our
benevolent affections, constitute the perfection of
human nature.”Adam Smith
1723-90
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• Adam Smith/Karl Marx • John Rawls/Ayn Rand
What did philosophers say about inequality?
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MDGs = Minding Development Gaps
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Post-2015 Agenda
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¾ see the MDGs as a ‘good thing’
nearly 90% want a similar agenda post-2015
CAFOD survey, 104 people from civil society organisations in 26 countries
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UNECA survey, 112 representatives from government, civil society and academia in 32 African countries.
“Overwhelming majority agrees: • MDGs are important
priorities for our countries• They should feature in the
post-2015 agenda.”
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Why had the MDGs such staying power?
1. Clear2. Concise3. Measurable
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Potential pitfalls1. Overload2. Prescription3. Donorship
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How to select new targets?1. Does it concern an
end or a means?2. Is concept clear?3. Can it be objectively
measured?
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Points for discussion1. Universality2. Sustainability3. Inequality4. Human rights5. Global vs.
national targets
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“A designer knows he has reached perfection, not when
there is nothing left to add, but when there is nothing left to
take away.”Antoine de Saint-Exupéry