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Solar PV

and Cold Climate

A Winning Combination

Sergio Gualteros, M.A.Sc., Jr. Eng.

sgualteros@nergica.com

November 8, 2018

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• Solar PV: Global Situation

• Situation in Canada

• Solar PV in Cold Climates: A Potential to be Exploited

• Context of Stand-alone Grids in Canadian Far North

• Relevance of Nergica

Outline of Presentation

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Solar PV: Global SituationUnprecedented growth

Evolution of PV module cost in US (-11%/year)

Added PV capacityworldwide(48%/year)

In 10 years

50 times more PV

4

Solar PV: Global SituationForecasts exceeded

RFPs for PV projects worldwide in 2016

Chile: 2.91₵/kWh@ 2,400 kWh/kWp

Abu Dhabi: 2.42₵/kWh @ 2,200 kWh/kWp

Forecast levelized costof PV: 2016-2027

Have we reached the levels forecast for 2027?

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Solar PV: Global SituationPioneering countries

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Situation in CanadaUse remains marginal

0.5% of total production

And PV?2017: 2.91 GWDC

97.25% of which is in Ontario

-150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

Growth rate by energy source 2040

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Situation in CanadaProjections through 2040

PV growth rate

234% by 2040

204010.21 TWh produced by PV

Penetration rate in country4%

30%

47%

5%

15%

4%

Additions for electricity generation

Hydro LNG Biomass Wind Solar

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Test your knowledge!Can you rank these cities and villages

according to their PV potential?

a) Kuujjuaq (QC)

b) Beijing

c) Moscow

d) London

e) Arviat (NU)

1,033 kWh/kWp

1,148 kWh/kWp

803 kWh/kWp

728 kWh/kWp

1,143 kWh/kWp

b) Beijing 1,148 kWh/Kwp

e) Arviat (NU) 1,143 kWh/kWp

a) Kuujjuaq (QC) 1033 kWh/kWp

c) Moscow 803 kWh/kWp

d) London 728 kWh/kWp

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Advantages of Solar PV in Cold ClimatesA potential to be exploited

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

kW

h/k

Wp

PV potential of several cities and villages in the world

Pikangikum

JasperSandy Lake

Kuujjuaq

Puvirnituq

Arviat

Iqaluit

Baker Lake

Inuvik

Cambridge Bay

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70

PV

Pote

ntial [k

Wh/k

Wp/y

ear]

Latitude [°]

Communities in Canada's Far North Summary January-June 2018

Natural Resources

Canada

kWh/kWc/6 months

@ 33° 624.00

kWh/6 months for

15.6 kWc 9,734.40

Nergica PV system

kWh/kWc/6 months

@ 30° 629.43

kWh/6 months for

15.6 kWc 9,819.11

Deviation [%] -0.87%

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Advantages of Solar PV in Cold ClimatesA potential to be exploited

PV potential comparisonNRCan vs. measurements taken

at Nergica's sitePV potential exceeding

1,000 kWh/kWc (φ<68°)

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Advantages of Solar PV in Cold Climates1st advantage: cold

Validation of coefficient with

experimental data

Variation of maximum power withrespect to temperature (Tcell)

for Nergica's research site

-0.43%/°C

TechnologyTemperature

coefficient [%/°C]

P-Si -0.43 to -0.45

Thin-film Si -0.48

c-Si wafer-based -0.45

a-Si single junction -0.13

CdTe -0.21

CIGS -0.36

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Advantages of Solar PV in Cold Climates2nd advantage: longer service life of PV modules

• System commissioned in 1994• 69 modules installed on college building façade• Visual inspection conducted in 2014

Results of visual inspection

(Nunavut Arctic College)

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Advantages of Solar PV in Cold Climates2nd advantage: longer service life of PV modules

In summary• Boathouse Icarus: 0,6 %/year• Arctic College : 0,64 %/year• Production guarantee :

• 0,68 %/year with 97 % on first year• 0,8 %/year if one includes an initial degradation of 3%

• Modules from the 1980s• Still in operation on a boathouse

Performance degradation

0.6%/year

(Houseboat Icarus)

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Advantages of Solar PV in Cold Climates3rd advantage: high wind speeds

The relationship betweensolar irradiation and module temperature is rather logical

High data dispersion

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Advantages of Solar PV in Cold Climates3rd advantage: high wind speeds

Boundary conditions: 0 and 18 m/sPerformance improvement

King et al., 2004

Up to 8.4% above maximum power

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Advantages of Solar PV in Cold Climates4th advantage: reflective property of snow

Advantages of a higher tilt angle:•Lower snow accumulation•Higher reflected radiation•Possible increase in benefit

of cold winds0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95

Reflecte

d r

adia

tion [

%]

Module tilt angle [°]

Effect of module angle on reflected radiation

Albedo 1 Albedo 0,25

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Context of Stand-alone Grids in Canadian Far NorthProduction dependent on fossil fuels

𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑙 = 𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐸𝑋 + 𝑂𝑃𝐸𝑋 +𝑃𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑙𝜂𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑙

𝜂𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑙 < 3,9 Τ𝑘𝑊ℎ 𝐿

𝑃𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑙~2 Τ$ 𝐿

𝑳𝑪𝑶𝑬𝒅𝒊𝒆𝒔𝒆𝒍 ~ 𝟎. 𝟕 − 𝟏. 𝟑 Τ$ 𝒌𝑾𝒉

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Context of Stand-alone Grids in Canadian Far North1st advantage: favourable LCOE

Assumptions

•Service life: 30 years

•Discount rate: 2%/year

•Project cost: $10/Wc

•OPEX: 1% of investment

•Rate of degradation: 0.5%/year

Average LCOEPV = 0.41 $/kWh

Reduction of 53%

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Context of Stand-alone Grids in Canadian Far North 2nd advantage: stable LCOE with respect to that of diesel

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2015 U

SD

/Barr

el

Reference Lower price Higher price

Reference (AE 2016) Lower price (AE 2016) Higher price (AE 2016)

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Context of Stand-alone Grids in Canadian Far North2nd advantage: stable LCOE with respect to that of diesel

What is the role of the carbon market?

Who is targeted in Quebec?

•Industry sector•Electricity sector•Fuel distributors

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What is the cost in Canada?

$10/tonne in 2018

$50/tonne in 2022

3.7₵/kWh

Context of Stand-alone Grids in Canadian Far North2nd advantage: stable LCOE with respect to that of diesel

What is the role of the carbon market?

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Known at start of project

Advantages of cold climate•Few interventions•Longer service life of modules

• Slightly lower rate of degradation

but...

Context of Stand-alone Grids in Canadian Far North2nd advantage: stable LCOE with respect to that of diesel

𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸𝑃𝑉 =𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐸𝑋 + 𝑂𝑃𝐸𝑋

𝑘𝑊ℎ 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒

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Context of Stand-alone Grids in Canadian Far North3rd advantage: government support for deployment of renewables

Crown-Indigenous Relations

Environmentand Climate

Change Canada

Natural Resources

Canada

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Context of Stand-alone Grids in Canadian Far North3rd advantage: government support for deployment of renewables

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Relevance of NergicaUnique research infrastructures in Canada

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Relevance of NergicaTechnical assistance and applied research activities

• Operational performance assessment

• Sizing of hybrid diesel-PV-storage systems

• Validation or adaptation of technological solutions for solar systems

• Analysis of impact of snow on energy production through image

processing

• Use of solar energy to improve energy quality

• Instrumentation and data quality control

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"I'd put my money on the sunand solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out

before we tackle that."[Thomas Edison, conversations with Henry Ford, 1931]

70, rue Bolduc, Gaspé, QC G4X 1A6

nergica.com

T +1 418-368-6162 | info@nergica.com

This webinar was produced as part of the Opten research program.

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