Solar: Power Today

36
Solar: Power Today June 2011

Transcript of Solar: Power Today

Page 1: Solar: Power Today

Solar:

Power Today

June 2011

Page 2: Solar: Power Today

Residential

1-10 kW

Commercial Rooftop

10 kW – 1 MW

Utility Scale

1 MW– 250 MW

Page 3: Solar: Power Today

Solar Growing Rapidly, Averaging 65%

Compound Annual Growth Rate for the Past 5 Years

17 nuclear power

plants worth

of solar peak

power

shipped in 2010

Source: PV Industry Growth Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant

Page 4: Solar: Power Today

Solar Industry Growth has Produced

Steadily Falling Prices

Sources: 1976 -1985 data from IPCC, Final Plenary, Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN), May 2011; 1985-2010 data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant;

2011 numbers based on current market data

Module Pricing Trends 1985-2011

Page 5: Solar: Power Today

Conventional Electricity Costs are Increasing

Average Retail Price of Electricity

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ; DOE, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011

Page 6: Solar: Power Today

US cell phone

subscribers has risen

from 5.3 million

to 285 million

in 15 years

Solar Adoption on High Tech Trajectory

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Solar Price Drops Mirror

High Tech Consumer Goods Driven by Innovation, Automation, and Scale

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• 100% Financing accelerating solar home sales

• Sale of Energy, not equipment

• Never an Increase in your Utility Bill

• >100,000 solar power systems already installed

Solar at Zero Cost in Increasing Markets

Page 9: Solar: Power Today

Solar is Less Expensive

Than New Nuclear

Cents

per

Kilo

watt H

our

Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years.

Average time to permit and build 1 GW solar – 1 year. The last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct.

$0.139

$0.07

$0.129

$0.095

Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced

Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016

(further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).

Page 10: Solar: Power Today

Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today C

ents

per

Kilo

watt H

our

$0.226

$0.139

$0.086

$0.238

250 MW Gas CT

Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE,

Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).

Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants.

Page 11: Solar: Power Today

Coal Plant 5% 500 MW

New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years,

When Solar Will Be Competitive

Cents

per

Kilo

watt H

our

$0.139

$0.07

$0.109

$0.07

Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced

Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016

(further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).

$0.08

Page 12: Solar: Power Today

Solar Meets Critical Peak Power Demand

Sources: For summer peak load shape – California Independent System Operator (CAL-ISO); For time of use rates – Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E); For PV Tracking Output – Solaria Corporation

Page 13: Solar: Power Today

Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle,

is Largest Solar Market in the World

Solar Energy Capacity (2009) in GW

Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011

Page 14: Solar: Power Today

Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle,

is Largest Solar Market in the World

Solar Energy Capacity (2010) in GW

Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011

Italy and

Germany added

13 GW in 2010

Page 15: Solar: Power Today

U.S. Solar Market Is Small but Growing

US Total Installed PV Solar Energy Nameplate Capacity and Generation

DOE, NREL, Renewable Energy Data Book, 2009; Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011

Page 16: Solar: Power Today

California Adding Multiple GW of Solar in the Next 5 Years

California could be 20% solar by 2020

1Of the 8.6 GW under contract, 4.4 GW is below the Market Price Referent (MPR), defined as the 20-year levelized cost of energy from a new natural gas plant in California.

Source: Greentech Media, February 2011

2009 Utility RFO submittals: 30 GW2011 Utility

RFO submittals: 45 GW (expected)

Page 17: Solar: Power Today

The Northeast has Huge Solar Potential

50% of New Jersey

electrical load could be

served by PV placed

in a square 10 miles

on a side

Page 20: Solar: Power Today

Solar Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuel and Solar

Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002-2008Environmental Law Institute, September 2009SEIA (Solar Energy

Industries Association) Federal Energy Subsidies in the United States: A Comparison of Energy Technologies, February 24, 2011

“Ending Oil Industry Tax BreaksCongressman Earl Blumenauer, Third District of Oregon, www.blumenauer.house.gov, April 2011

Page 21: Solar: Power Today

$72 bn

Fossil Fuel Subsidies Pad Profits while Prices Increase

:

Sources :ARP of Electricity from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Subsidy Data Source from SEIA

Page 22: Solar: Power Today

$2 bn

Relatively Small Solar Subsidies Produce

Significant Price Declines

Sources: Weighted Average ASP Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Subsidy Data Source from SEIA

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Wind CCS Biomass Solar Thermal Geothermal Solar PV

Solar Creates Jobs

7x more jobs than coal

Average Total Jobs/Megawatts

Sources: Kammen, David M et al, 2004, Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy

Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Wei, Max et al, 2010, Putting Renewables to Work: How

Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy and the Haas School of Business, University of California,

Berkeley, in Energy Policy, vol 38, issue 2, February 2010.

Page 24: Solar: Power Today

Solar is Ready Now

Solar

17 GW

Solar added more

than 17 GW

worldwide 2010

All other sources

combined only added

14.7 GW in the US 2010

Coal

6.7 GW Natural

Gas

5.5 GW

Wind

2.5 GW

Source: Erik Shuster, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants, January 14, 2011(Natural as includes NGCC at 4GW and NG GT and 1.5 GW.)

Page 25: Solar: Power Today

US Solar Resource Dwarfs Other Markets

SPAIN

GERMANY

Map Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy

Enough land area to power

the whole country

Page 26: Solar: Power Today

US Lags in both PV Production and Market Growth

2010 Global Supply/Demand

Supply 17.4-GWp Demand

Source: Supply data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Demand data from Source: Greentech Media

Page 27: Solar: Power Today

Solar power will be the largest source of electricity in the U.S.

TW

H/y

r

To 2030 To 2040 To 2050

• Substitute Generation • Smartgrid • Flexible Generation

• Energy Storage

Sources: McKenzie Report, 2007 for starting points and energy efficiency; AWEA for wind; internal SunPower calculations for DPV, CPV, CSP

Transition to Renewables

Page 28: Solar: Power Today

Public Support for Clean Energy

91 percent of Americans

say developing sources of

clean energy should be a

priority for the president and

Congress

85% of Republicans

89% of Independents

97% of Democrats

Sources: Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies in May 2011, Yale Project on Climate Change.

Page 29: Solar: Power Today

Solar

Less expensive than new nuclear and cost

competitive with new coal and gas started today

Delivers Gigawatt’s of power fast – 8 to 20 years

faster than coal or nuclear

Page 30: Solar: Power Today

• Date and other info Thank You

Page 31: Solar: Power Today

• Date and other info Appendix

Page 32: Solar: Power Today

Solar is Cost Competitive in Many States

Right Now

16.87

14.86

17.50

20.33

Residential Price for

Conventional Electricity

(Cents per Kilowatt Hour) 2009

Solar PV is comparably priced in the Eastern US

with a range of 15 to 25 cents/kw hour

14.07

16.31

15.60

15.65

14.90 16.26

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Page 33: Solar: Power Today

Peak Demand/Heat Waves Coincide with Peak Sun

New York City Blackout Summer 2003

Load (

GW

)

New York City Summer 2006 Peak Demand Day

Blackout could have been avoided

with just 500 MW PV

Economic losses

in NYC alone

exceeded $1bn.

Losses were between

$7 to 10 bn

in the Northeast

U.S. and Canada

Economic Loss Sources: Reuters, ICF Consulting in Richard Perez - ARSC (with permission), City Comptroller, William Thompson, 2003

Page 34: Solar: Power Today

Among Global Energy Sources

6

Coal

Uranium

900

Total

reserve

220

Petroleum

170

Natural Gas

70 Wind

0.5

Waves

23

OTEC

Biomass

11

Hydro

4

0.3

Tides

Geothermal

2

Renewable Energy

(Annual Reserves)

FINITE ENERGY

(TOTAL RESERVES)

© Richard Perez – Used With Permission

World Energy Use

15 TW-yrs per year 15

Page 35: Solar: Power Today

Solar

40,000 TW-yrs per year

Solar is by Far the Most Abundant

6

World Energy Use

15 TW-yrs per year

Coal

Uranium

900

Total

reserve

220

Petroleum

170

Natural Gas

70 Wind

0.5

Waves

23

OTEC

Biomass

11

Hydro

4

0.3

Tides

Geothermal

2

15

© Richard Perez – Used With Permission

Page 36: Solar: Power Today

Fukushima

Daiichi Nuclear

MeltdownMarch

2011

BP Deep Water

Horizon Oil

SpillApril 2010

Natural Gas

Pipeline

Explosion in San

Bruno,

CASeptember,

2010

Upper Big

Branch Coal

Mine

DisasterApril

2010

Examples of Energy Disasters 2010-2011