Solar Power The DG Clean-Energy Solution for today and tomorrow
Solar: Power Today
Transcript of Solar: Power Today
Solar:
Power Today
June 2011
Residential
1-10 kW
Commercial Rooftop
10 kW – 1 MW
Utility Scale
1 MW– 250 MW
Solar Growing Rapidly, Averaging 65%
Compound Annual Growth Rate for the Past 5 Years
17 nuclear power
plants worth
of solar peak
power
shipped in 2010
Source: PV Industry Growth Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant
Solar Industry Growth has Produced
Steadily Falling Prices
Sources: 1976 -1985 data from IPCC, Final Plenary, Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN), May 2011; 1985-2010 data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant;
2011 numbers based on current market data
Module Pricing Trends 1985-2011
Conventional Electricity Costs are Increasing
Average Retail Price of Electricity
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ; DOE, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
US cell phone
subscribers has risen
from 5.3 million
to 285 million
in 15 years
Solar Adoption on High Tech Trajectory
Solar Price Drops Mirror
High Tech Consumer Goods Driven by Innovation, Automation, and Scale
• 100% Financing accelerating solar home sales
• Sale of Energy, not equipment
• Never an Increase in your Utility Bill
• >100,000 solar power systems already installed
Solar at Zero Cost in Increasing Markets
Solar is Less Expensive
Than New Nuclear
Cents
per
Kilo
watt H
our
Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years.
Average time to permit and build 1 GW solar – 1 year. The last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct.
$0.139
$0.07
$0.129
$0.095
Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced
Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016
(further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today C
ents
per
Kilo
watt H
our
$0.226
$0.139
$0.086
$0.238
250 MW Gas CT
Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE,
Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants.
Coal Plant 5% 500 MW
New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years,
When Solar Will Be Competitive
Cents
per
Kilo
watt H
our
$0.139
$0.07
$0.109
$0.07
Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced
Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016
(further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
$0.08
Solar Meets Critical Peak Power Demand
Sources: For summer peak load shape – California Independent System Operator (CAL-ISO); For time of use rates – Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E); For PV Tracking Output – Solaria Corporation
Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle,
is Largest Solar Market in the World
Solar Energy Capacity (2009) in GW
Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle,
is Largest Solar Market in the World
Solar Energy Capacity (2010) in GW
Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
Italy and
Germany added
13 GW in 2010
U.S. Solar Market Is Small but Growing
US Total Installed PV Solar Energy Nameplate Capacity and Generation
DOE, NREL, Renewable Energy Data Book, 2009; Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
California Adding Multiple GW of Solar in the Next 5 Years
California could be 20% solar by 2020
1Of the 8.6 GW under contract, 4.4 GW is below the Market Price Referent (MPR), defined as the 20-year levelized cost of energy from a new natural gas plant in California.
Source: Greentech Media, February 2011
2009 Utility RFO submittals: 30 GW2011 Utility
RFO submittals: 45 GW (expected)
The Northeast has Huge Solar Potential
50% of New Jersey
electrical load could be
served by PV placed
in a square 10 miles
on a side
Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages Completed US PV Projects
Total USA Installed PV 2 GW in 50 States
Global Installed 26 GW
Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx)
Completed US PV Projects
Equal to 12
nuclear
plants
in 4 years
US Utility Solar Announcements1
Over the next 4 years 12 GW
1Note: Utility purchases only - Does not include residential and commercial markets
Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx)
Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages
Solar Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuel and Solar
Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002-2008Environmental Law Institute, September 2009SEIA (Solar Energy
Industries Association) Federal Energy Subsidies in the United States: A Comparison of Energy Technologies, February 24, 2011
“Ending Oil Industry Tax BreaksCongressman Earl Blumenauer, Third District of Oregon, www.blumenauer.house.gov, April 2011
$72 bn
Fossil Fuel Subsidies Pad Profits while Prices Increase
:
Sources :ARP of Electricity from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Subsidy Data Source from SEIA
$2 bn
Relatively Small Solar Subsidies Produce
Significant Price Declines
Sources: Weighted Average ASP Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Subsidy Data Source from SEIA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Wind CCS Biomass Solar Thermal Geothermal Solar PV
Solar Creates Jobs
7x more jobs than coal
Average Total Jobs/Megawatts
Sources: Kammen, David M et al, 2004, Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy
Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Wei, Max et al, 2010, Putting Renewables to Work: How
Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy and the Haas School of Business, University of California,
Berkeley, in Energy Policy, vol 38, issue 2, February 2010.
Solar is Ready Now
Solar
17 GW
Solar added more
than 17 GW
worldwide 2010
All other sources
combined only added
14.7 GW in the US 2010
Coal
6.7 GW Natural
Gas
5.5 GW
Wind
2.5 GW
Source: Erik Shuster, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants, January 14, 2011(Natural as includes NGCC at 4GW and NG GT and 1.5 GW.)
US Solar Resource Dwarfs Other Markets
SPAIN
GERMANY
Map Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy
Enough land area to power
the whole country
US Lags in both PV Production and Market Growth
2010 Global Supply/Demand
Supply 17.4-GWp Demand
Source: Supply data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Demand data from Source: Greentech Media
Solar power will be the largest source of electricity in the U.S.
TW
H/y
r
To 2030 To 2040 To 2050
• Substitute Generation • Smartgrid • Flexible Generation
• Energy Storage
Sources: McKenzie Report, 2007 for starting points and energy efficiency; AWEA for wind; internal SunPower calculations for DPV, CPV, CSP
Transition to Renewables
Public Support for Clean Energy
91 percent of Americans
say developing sources of
clean energy should be a
priority for the president and
Congress
85% of Republicans
89% of Independents
97% of Democrats
Sources: Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies in May 2011, Yale Project on Climate Change.
Solar
Less expensive than new nuclear and cost
competitive with new coal and gas started today
Delivers Gigawatt’s of power fast – 8 to 20 years
faster than coal or nuclear
• Date and other info Thank You
• Date and other info Appendix
Solar is Cost Competitive in Many States
Right Now
16.87
14.86
17.50
20.33
Residential Price for
Conventional Electricity
(Cents per Kilowatt Hour) 2009
Solar PV is comparably priced in the Eastern US
with a range of 15 to 25 cents/kw hour
14.07
16.31
15.60
15.65
14.90 16.26
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Peak Demand/Heat Waves Coincide with Peak Sun
New York City Blackout Summer 2003
Load (
GW
)
New York City Summer 2006 Peak Demand Day
Blackout could have been avoided
with just 500 MW PV
Economic losses
in NYC alone
exceeded $1bn.
Losses were between
$7 to 10 bn
in the Northeast
U.S. and Canada
Economic Loss Sources: Reuters, ICF Consulting in Richard Perez - ARSC (with permission), City Comptroller, William Thompson, 2003
Among Global Energy Sources
6
Coal
Uranium
900
Total
reserve
220
Petroleum
170
Natural Gas
70 Wind
0.5
Waves
23
OTEC
Biomass
11
Hydro
4
0.3
Tides
Geothermal
2
Renewable Energy
(Annual Reserves)
FINITE ENERGY
(TOTAL RESERVES)
© Richard Perez – Used With Permission
World Energy Use
15 TW-yrs per year 15
Solar
40,000 TW-yrs per year
Solar is by Far the Most Abundant
6
World Energy Use
15 TW-yrs per year
Coal
Uranium
900
Total
reserve
220
Petroleum
170
Natural Gas
70 Wind
0.5
Waves
23
OTEC
Biomass
11
Hydro
4
0.3
Tides
Geothermal
2
15
© Richard Perez – Used With Permission
Fukushima
Daiichi Nuclear
MeltdownMarch
2011
BP Deep Water
Horizon Oil
SpillApril 2010
Natural Gas
Pipeline
Explosion in San
Bruno,
CASeptember,
2010
Upper Big
Branch Coal
Mine
DisasterApril
2010
Examples of Energy Disasters 2010-2011